BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, April 24, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/24) in North and Central CA waves were waist high and poorly lined up and warbled from northwest wind and mushed wit small chops outside. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high on the sets and weakly lined up and mushed and soft with near shop on top. At Santa Cruz surf was up to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up with good form when they came but pretty inconsistent. In Ventura County waves were knee high on the sets and lined up but warbled and not really rideable. Central Orange County had sets to waist high on the peaks and weakly lined up and a bit warbled with northerly wind on it early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at shoulder to head high on the sets and lined up with good form and real clean early but a little soft. North San Diego had sets at up to head high and real lined up if not closed out and clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up but pretty warbled from southeast wind. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and fairly clean with light south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (4/24) small southern hemi swell was hitting Hawaii and California from the first in a series of southern hemi gales. Looking forward a small gale developed off North Japan later on Tues (4/22) producing up to 26 ft seas aimed east for 12-18 hours. Small swell to result for Hawaii. Down south the 1st gale in a series developed southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (4/15) producing up to 39 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast. Small swell hitting HI and CA. Secondary energy from it developed Tues (4/15) over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast. A broader second system developed in the deep Central Pacific Wed-Fri (4/18) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly due east. A third gale developed south of New Zealand Fri-Sun (3/20) traversing the South Pacific while lifting east-northeast Fri-Sun (3/20) with 33 ft seas initially fading to 30-31 ft later while moving over the Southeast Pacific offering hope for more southern hemi swell beyond. Another gale developed tracking northeast under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/22) with 36 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And another to follow under New Zealand Fri-Sat (4/26) with up to 44 ft seas aimed east. Another is forecast under New Zealand on Sun-Mon (4/28) with 41 ft seas aimed east. The transition to Summer is underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/24) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California coming from the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours swell from what is likely the last gale of the season is to be moving towards Hawaii (see Final NPac Gale below) No other swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Final NPac Gale
A gale developed off North Japan on Tues AM (4/22) with northwest winds at 40 kts and seas 24 ft at 41.5N 159.75E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds faded from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 43.25N 163.25E aimed southeast. The gale to fade Wed AM (4/23) with west winds 35 kts and seas 22 ft at 42N 169.75E aimed east. The gale dissipated after that. Some odds of minimal swell resulting for Hawaii for the early weekend.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (4/26) building to 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.0 ft). Sun to peak Sun AM (4/27) at 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (4/28) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 8,500 ft 4/24 then falling late down to 5,000 ft 4/25-4/27 rebuilding 4/28 from 8500 ft reaching 10,500 ft on 4/29 then holding before rising to 12,000 ft 5/2 and beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/17) the jetstream was ridging south under New Zealand offering no support for gael formation but the jet was lifting northeast over the Central South Pacific forming a trough being fed by 130-140 kts winds offering decent support for gale formation. East of there another ridge was pushing southeast offering nothing,. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to track east into Fri (4/25) but pinching off in the process over the Central Southeast Pacific on Fri (4/25) offering decreasing odds for gale formation. After that the jet is to run mostly due east on the 57S latitude line into Sun (4/27) while slowly weakening offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (4/28) the jet is to continue east on the 55S latitude line but with no obvious significant troughs forecast until Thurs (5/1) when a broad trough is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 110-130 kts winds offering some support for gale formation there and building. Something to monitor.

Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand was hitting HI and CA (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a secondary gale was also tracking northeast targeting California and South America for later in the workweek (see Secondary Gale below). And yet another was pushing north from another gale previously south of New Zealand expected to arrive next week (see Second New Zealand Gale below). Yet another developed under New Zealand tracking east across the South Pacific only to build over the Southeast Pacific later in it's life (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below). And possibly a 4th and 5th are forecast after that (see details directly below).

Possible 4th New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing Wed PM (4/23) south of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area aimed east-northeast with seas 34 ft at 59S 179E aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (4/24) the fetch was lifting northeast with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 55.75S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch to fade from 40 kts aimed northeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 53S 160W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (4/25) fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts aimed well northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 51.25S 151W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Possible 5th New Zealand Gale
Another storm is to develop south of New Zealand on Fri AM (4/25) with west winds 50-55 kts and seas 41 ft at 62S 169E aimed east. In the evening west winds are to be 45-50 kts over a solid area and seas 45 ft at 62S 177W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/26) west winds to be fading from 35 kts and seas 35 ft at 63S 163W aimed east. In the evening secondary fetch to develop just north of the previous fetch with west winds 40 kts and seas 31 ft at 57S 157W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/27) fetch is to be racing east at 35-40 kts in the Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 30 ft at 57S 140W aimed east. Fetch dissipating from there. Something to monitor.

First New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand Sun AM (4/13) tracking east with 50-55 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 59S 176.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts tracking east with seas 39 ft at 59.25S 171W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade some on Mon AM (4/14) from 45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 37 ft at 57.75S 163W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest fetch was fading from 35 kts over decent sized area with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.75S 151.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale faded Tues AM (4/15) with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 55S 142W aimed east.

Oahu: Swell fading Thurs (4/24) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

Secondary Gale
A secondary gale formed directly behind Tues AM (4/15) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft over a small area at 48S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts in two area close together aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 48S 158W and 50S 142W. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor relative to California down to South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (4/27) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.1 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.7 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds Sun (4/27) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Second New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/16) with 45 kts west-northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64S 172E aimed mostly at Antarctica. In the evening fetch swept east-northeast with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 65.5S 167.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/17) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.25S 153.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed east-northeast with seas 32 ft at 64.25S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/18) from 35 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas fading out from 27 ft at 63S 132W aimed east-northeast. Fetch dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/30) building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/1) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell likely being overrun by new swell beyond. Swell Direction: 196 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 19-20 sec later (3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell holding on Tues (4/29) at 2.7 ft @ 16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/30) from from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/1) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.2 ft @ 20-21 sec later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building Tues (4/29) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/30) from from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/1) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

3rd New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (4/18) a small gale developed south of New Zealand with west winds 45 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 64.75S 169E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 174.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/19) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft over a broad area at 62S 155W aimed east-northeast. Fetch rebuilt in the evening with southwest winds 40 kts aimed well northeast and seas 31 ft at 64.25S 152.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/20) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 60S 139W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29-30 ft over a broad area at 54S 128W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/21) south winds were over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window at 30-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 58S 121.5W aimed northeast. Fetch faded out from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/1) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (5/2) mid-day to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sat (5/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/4) from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (5/6) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 204 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing over the North Dateline region later on Mon AM (4/28) with 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft. In the afternoon the gale is to be producing 35 kt west winds and seas 25 ft at 45.5N 179E. Fetch fading Tues AM (4/29) from 35 kts with seas fading from 21 ft at 43.25N 174.5W aimed east-southeast. Something to monitor but odds low of it actually forming.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another is forecast under New Zealand on Sun PM (4/27) with 50 kts southwest winds and seas 41 ft at 54.75S 168.75E aimed northeast. On Mon Am (4/28) southwest winds to be tracking east at 40 kts over a solid area with seas 37 ft at at 54.75S 180E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to track east with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 32 ft at 55.5S 170W aimed east. Fetch fading from there.

Yet another is possible building under New Zealand on Thurs (5/1) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 61.5S 167.75E aimed northeast.

Quite a pattern setting up.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO Poised To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/23) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/24) Today modest east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with weak west anomalies over the West KWGA with the dividing line 140E. The forecast indicates the dividing line holding till 4/27 with east anomalies holding at weak status over the East KWGA while west anomalies build in strength reaching moderate status. Then 4/27 the dividing line moves east to 150E and then on 5/4 the dividing line dissipates and west anomalies sweep east at weak status filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/10. La Nina is all but gone with it's remnants fading and even those to be gone starting 5/4.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back steady at 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east from 177W to 168W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific though losing some density in the east with a 28 deg contour now gone. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +2 degs in the East Pacific and now connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over most of the equatorial PAcific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were spread between 165W to 115W 150 to 125 meters down. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/18 indicates cool anomalies were barely filling the the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) in the west between 156E east to 130W but only -0.5 to -1.0 degs and getting warmer. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building east to 150W. It almost looks like a downwelling Kelvin Wave was tracking east. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 130W and losing ground. Negative anomalies at -5 cms were from 130W to 140W and all but gone at 160W. 2 pockets of negative anomalies at 15 to 20 cms were straddling the equator at 155W while weakening. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/18) the cool pool was gone. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 122W then neutral west of there until reaching the West Pacific Warm Pool starting at 165W and building west of there. It almost looks like an Downwelling Kelvin Wave is pushing east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is in total collapse of not already gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/23) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was all but gone over the Equatorial Pacific with lingering cool pockets scattered between 140W to 170E. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system but weakening some. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 135W but losing density with a cool stream stating to appear between 100W-115W and along the immediate coast of Ecuador and Peru, typical of this time of year there. This is beginning to looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/23): Temps were steady and not cooling in a broad pocket from Ecuador to 130W where days before this area was rapidly cooling. Modest warming temps were on the equator from 130W to 160E.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/24) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were stabilizing at -0.169 and have been since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/24) Today's temps were rising slightly at -1.169 rising from -0.5 degs on 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were negative at -0.2 week of 4/16. Previously temps were -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (4/24) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in June and holding through Nov, then rising to +0.10 degs in Dec and +0.20 in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/23) the Daily Index was negative at -7.79 and mixed the past 9 days otherwise steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was falling at +7.67 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +7.81 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table