BUOY ROUNDUP
Friday, May 2, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (5/2) in North and Central CA rare sets were head high to 1 ft overhead coming from the northwest and lined up but pretty warbled and mushed with poor form due to northwest wind. Protected breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and closed out and pretty warbled and from northwest wind early. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally head high and lined up and clean and closed out coming from the northwest. But otherwise it was thigh to maybe waist high and clean and soft. In Ventura County waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and lined up but soft with some warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high coming from the south and lined up but closed out and pretty warbled from modest northwest winds early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high if not 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form but pretty warbled from northwest winds even early. North San Diego had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up if closed out and cleaner but still a bit warbled early. Oahu's North Shore had set 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and fairly clean early. The South Shore had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up with good form and real clean early. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped with moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (5/2) Hawaii and North California were getting swell from a gale developed over the Dateline (North Pacific) on Mon (4/28) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed east. Looking south 4 small new southern hemi swells were tracking northeast towards CA with possibly 2 more forecast behind that. A third in a series of gales developed south of New Zealand Fri-Sun (3/20) traversing the South Pacific while lifting east-northeast Fri-Sun (3/20) with 33 ft seas initially fading to 30-31 ft later while moving over the Southeast Pacific offering hope for southern hemi swell for CA. A 4th gale developed tracking northeast under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/22) with 34 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And a 5th followed under New Zealand Fri-Sat (4/26) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east. And a 6th developed under New Zealand tracking east Sun-Tues (4/29) with 31-34 ft seas aimed east. A 7th followed over the Central South Pacific Thurs-Fri (5/2) with 38 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And maybe one more to develop in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/5) with seas building to 31 ft aimed well northeast. The transition to Summer is underway.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (4/30) swell from a gale previously over the dateline was hitting Hawaii (see Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Dateline Gale
On Sun PM (4/27) a gale developed while approaching the dateline with 35-40 kt west winds and starting to get traction on the oceans surface. On Mon AM (4/28) west winds were 40-45 kts over a small area with seas building to 30 ft at 46.75N 177.75E aimed east. In the evening the gale was moving into the Northwestern Gulf with west winds fading from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 30 ft at 46.5N 174.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (4/29) fetch dissipated after that with seas fading from 22 ft at 48N 166.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell fading Fri AM (5/2) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading out on Sat (5/3) from 2.8 ft @ 11 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,500 ft 5/1 holding before falling later on 5/2 down to 8,200 ft Sat (5/3) rising to 10,000 ft late on 5/4 then rising steadily to 12,000 ft late 5/6 and holding beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday (5/2) the jetstream was lifting northeast some under New Zealand with winds 130 kts starting to form some sort of a trough offering limited support for gale development. East of there they tracked due east and then formed another trough moving east of the Southern CA swell window being fed by 150 kt winds offering support for gale development there too. Over the next 72 hours the trough over the Southeast Pacific is to track east Fri (5/2) and pushing east of even the Southern CA swell window. But the trough under New Zealand is to build some Sat (5/3) being fed by 150 kt winds lifting northeast but quickly getting pinched off on Sun (5/4) while reaching north to 35S likely hampering support for gale formation. But yet another trough is forecast developing well southeast of New Zealand on Mon (5/5) being fed by 140 kt winds lifting well northeast with that trough too starting to pinch off over the Central South Pacific on Tues (5/6) but perhaps offering some better support for gale formation in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific before the pinch gets too drastic. Beyond 72 hours a ridge sets up under and southeast of New Zealand Wed (5/7) offering no support for gale formation. But there is some suggestions of a trough building east of that ridge over the Southeast Pacific late Wed into Thurs (5/8) being fed by 150 kts winds offering good support for gale formation and building while pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Fri (5/9)..

Surface Analysis
Swell was fading out in California from a gale that tracked east across the deep South Pacific Wed-Fri (4/18) with 34-36 ft seas aimed east (see Second New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from yet a 3rd gale was tracking northeast that developed under New Zealand tracking east across the South Pacific Fri-Mon (4/21) only to rebuild over the Southeast Pacific later in it's life with seas 32 ft aimed better northeast (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below). And a 4th gale developed under New Zealand tracking east Wed-Thurs (4/24) with 35 ft seas aimed east (see 4th New Zealand Gale below). And a 5th developed while tracking east Fri-Sun (4/27) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east (see 5th New Zealand Gale below). And yet one more developed under New Zealand tracking east Sun-Tues (4/29) with 31-24 ft seas aimed east-northeast (see 6th New Zealand Gale below).

Another gale started building over the Central South Pacific on Thurs AM (5/1) with 50-55 kt south winds tracking east with seas building from 32 ft at 59.75S 155.75W aimed east-northeast and with the ice anomaly interfering with it. In the evening southwest winds build to 50 kts with the gale lifting northeast with seas 38 ft over a smallish area at 58.25S 145.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was lifting hard northeast on Fri AM (5/2) with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 34 ft at 55.75S 121W aimed northeast with a broader area of 31 ft seas just north of it. In the evening fetch holds while pushing east of the Southern CA swell window with southwest winds 50 kts and seas 40 ft at 53S 114.25W and east of the Southern CA swell window. The gale to dissipate from there while tracking east-northeast. Something more to monitor.

And yet another gale is to form over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific but starting east of New Zealand on Sat PM (5/3) with 35 kt south winds and 25 ft seas at 46S 172.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/4) the gale is to track north-northeast with 35-40 kts south winds and seas 25 ft at 42S 167W aimed north-northeast. In the evening the gale continue north-northeast with 30-35 kts south winds over a building area and seas fading some at 24 ft at 37S 165W aimed north. On Mon AM (5/5) the gale redevelops with 40-45 kts south winds and seas 29 ft aimed due north at 38S 158W. Fetch holds in the evening with 35-40 kts south winds and seas 30 ft at 35S 155W, way north of normal. Fetch fading Tues AM (5/6) from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 34S 150W. Something to monitor.

Second New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/16) with 45 kts west-northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64S 172E aimed mostly at Antarctica. In the evening fetch swept east-northeast with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 65.5S 167.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/17) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.25S 153.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed east-northeast with seas 32 ft at 64.25S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/18) from 35 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas fading out from 27 ft at 63S 132W aimed east-northeast. Fetch dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

3rd New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (4/18) a small gale developed south of New Zealand with west winds 45 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 64.75S 169E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 174.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/19) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft over a broad area at 62S 155W aimed east-northeast. Fetch rebuilt in the evening with southwest winds 40 kts aimed well northeast and seas 31 ft at 64.25S 152.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/20) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 60S 139W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29-30 ft over a broad area at 54S 128W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/21) south winds were over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window at 30-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 58S 121.5W aimed northeast. Fetch faded out from there.

Oahu: Swell builds Fri (5/2) mid-day to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sat (5/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/4) from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (5/6) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 0.9 ft @ 20 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 204 degrees

4th New Zealand Gale
A gale started developing Wed PM (4/23) south of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts over a decent sized area aimed east-northeast with seas 34 ft at 59S 179E aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (4/24) the fetch was lifting northeast with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 55.75S 170W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 40 kts aimed northeast with seas fading from 32 ft at 53S 160W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (4/25) fetch was fading from 35 kts aimed well northeast with seas fading from 27 ft at 51.25S 151W aimed northeast.

Oahu: Swell holding Fri (5/2) at 1.5 ft @ 15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (5/3) from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1,5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 0.9 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Sat (5/3) to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs at sunset (2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (5/4) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft) and steady. Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 209 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/3) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Sun (5/4) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft) and steady. Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 208 degrees

5th New Zealand Gale
Another storm developed south of New Zealand on Fri AM (4/25) with west winds 50 kts and seas 39 ft at 61S 169.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 45-50 kts over a solid area and seas 43 ft at 61.5S 177.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/26) west winds were fading from 35-40 kts and seas 36 ft at 60.5S 163W aimed east. In the evening secondary fetch developed just north of the previous fetch with west winds 30 kts and seas 27-28 ft at 57S 151W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/27) fetch was racing east and fading with no meaningful seas remaining.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/3) building to 0.9 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (5/4) at 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/4) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds Mon (5/5) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaks Tues (5/6) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 201 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/4) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Mon (5/5) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaks Tues (5/6) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 201 degrees

6th New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (4/27) with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a tiny area at 58.25S 163E aimed east. In the evening south to southwest winds held at 45-50 kts with seas building to 35 ft at 56S 172.5E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/28) southwest winds were tracking east rebuilding at 50 kts with 45 kts southwest winds over a solid area with seas 34 ft at at 56.25S 173.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east with southwest winds 40-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 56.75S 160W aimed northeast. Fetch held on Tues AM (4/29) while tracking east with seas 31 ft at 59.75S 145W aimed northeast with the wave model anomaly interfering some. Fetch faded in the evening from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 28 ft at 58.25S 133.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/5) building to 0.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.0-1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Tues (5/6) at 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 0.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/6) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds Wed (5/7) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady Thurs (5/8) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (5/9) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (5/10) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/6) building to 0.8 ft @ 20-21 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds Wed (5/7) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady Thurs (5/8) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (5/9) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (5/10) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:198 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Gone
Weak Active MJO Killing It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere aging will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/1) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/2) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with weak to modest west anomalies over the West KWGA with the dividing line at 135E. The forecast indicates the dividing line holding till 5/5 then it dissolves with west anomalies surging east to the dateline on 5/9 and pushing east of there beyond. West anomalies to holding filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/18 reaching east to 140W. La Nina is all but gone with it's remnants fading fast.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/30) The array is now fully operational east of 160E. This is a major milestone. Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was tracking east from 165E now to 172R. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east from 177W to 168W to now 164W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific though losing some density in the east with a 28 deg contour now gone. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 deg in the East Pacific and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over most of the equatorial PAcific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were spread between 160W to 115W 150 to 125 meters down. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/28 indicates cool anomalies were in pockets over the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building east to 135W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral end-to-end. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator from 2N and 2S and points north and south of there. 2 pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling the equator at 155W 5N and 5S while weakening. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/28) the cool pool was gone. Neutral to weak warm anomalies were filling the equator across the Pacific. The West Pacific Warm Pool was building west of 177W. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/1) The latest images depict neutral water temps were over the Equatorial Pacific with a few lingering cool pockets scattered between 110W to 170E. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching about 5-10N then dissipating outlining the normal strengthened Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 135W and steady no longer losing density. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/1): Temps were neutral from Ecuador to the Galapagos, cooling some from there to 110W then modestly warm west of there on the equator from 145W to 160E.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/2) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising at +0.062 and have been rising since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/2) Today's temps were steady at -1.170 rising from -0.5 degs on 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were normal at 0.0 degs week of 4/23. Previously temps were -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (4/30) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in May then falling to -0.05 degs Aug-Oct, rising back to neutral (0.0) in Dec and rising from there. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/30) the Daily Index was negative at -4.65 and mostly negative the last 10 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was falling at +1.77 and has been generally falling since early April and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +5.95 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table