BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, May 6, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (5/6) in North and Central CA sets were waist to chest high and warbled and mushed and chopped and a mess from south wind. Protected breaks were chest high and somewhat lined up and a bit warbled and mushed but fairly clean nearshore. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high and somewhat lined up and soft and clean and weak. In Ventura County waves were waist to chest high with some bigger sets and lined up with decent form and clean. Central Orange County had sets to chest high and lined up with decent form when they came but with a little southerly texture from light south winds. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high or so and lined up with good form but a bit mushed and fairly clean but with some southerly lump in the water though local wind was calm. North San Diego had sets at waist high or so and lined up with decent form though sometimes closed out and fairly clean but with some warble in the water. Oahu's North Shore had sets at knee to thigh high and somewhat lined up and clean early. The South Shore had sets at chest high and lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped with moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (5/6) Hawaii and California were getting swell from the 5th gale in a series that developed under New Zealand Fri-Sat (4/26) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east. And a 6th developed under New Zealand tracking east Sun-Tues (4/29) with 31-34 ft seas aimed east. A 7th followed over the Central South Pacific Thurs-Fri (5/2) with 38 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And one more developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/5) with seas building to 31 ft aimed well northeast. After that perhaps a gael to develop south of New Zealand on Sat-Sun (5/11) tracking east with seas to 35 ft initially but fading fast. After that things are to quiet down.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (5/6) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area or was being generated.

Over the next 72 hours perhaps a tiny gale is to develop while approaching and moving to the North Dateline region Thurs-Fri (5/9) with 23 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps tiny background swell to result for Hawaii with luck.

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. The North Pacific is likely asleep for the Summer.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 12,000 ft through 5/10 then falling to 5,000 ft 5/12 rising to 6,500 ft on 5/13 and holding.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (5/6) the jetstream was ridging under New Zealand pushing down to 57S then lifting hard north north well east of New Zealand forming a trough being fed by 110 kt winds offering some limited support for gale development over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific. East of there winds were falling southeast forming a ridge over the remainder of the South Pacific providing no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough over upper latitudes of the Central South Pacific is to fully pinch off no longer supporting gale formation. A ridge sets up under and southeast of New Zealand Thurs (5/8) pushing well southeast with winds 150 kts offering no support for gale formation. But a trough is to be building east of that ridge over the Southeast Pacific Thurs (5/8) being fed by 150 kts winds offering some support for gale formation and building while pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Fri (5/9). Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (5/10) winds are to be light but pushing hard south under and east of New Zealand over Antarctic Ice forming a ridge and offering no support for gale formation into Sun (5/11). After that the jet is to lift north running east on the 60S latitude line but weak and with no trough indicated offering no support for gale formation through the end of the model run on Tues (5/13). The swell machine is to falter.

Surface Analysis
Swell was hitting Hawaii and California from the 5th gale in a series that formed under New Zealand tracking east Fri-Sun (4/27) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east (see 5th New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a 6th gale developed under New Zealand tracking east Sun-Tues (4/29) with 31-24 ft seas aimed east-northeast (see 6th New Zealand Gale below). And another gael formed over the Central South Pacific tracking east Thurs-Fri (5/2) with up to 38 ft sea aimed east-northeast but over a small area (see Central South Pacific Gale below). And one more formed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sat-Tues (5/6)with up to 31 ft sea aimed well north (see Another Central South Pacific Gale below).

5th New Zealand Gale
Another storm developed south of New Zealand on Fri AM (4/25) with west winds 50 kts and seas 39 ft at 61S 169.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 45-50 kts over a solid area and seas 43 ft at 61.5S 177.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/26) west winds were fading from 35-40 kts and seas 36 ft at 60.5S 163W aimed east. In the evening secondary fetch developed just north of the previous fetch with west winds 30 kts and seas 27-28 ft at 57S 151W aimed east. On Sun AM (4/27) fetch was racing east and fading with no meaningful seas remaining.

Oahu: Swell peaking on Sun (5/4) at 0.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Swell peaks Tues (5/6) at 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 201 degrees

North CA: Swell peaks Tues (5/6) at 1.5 ft @ 16 secs mid-AM (2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft) and possibly being overridden by new swell. Swell Direction: 201 degrees

6th New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed under New Zealand on Sun AM (4/27) with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 32 ft over a tiny area at 58.25S 163E aimed east. In the evening south to southwest winds held at 45-50 kts with seas building to 35 ft at 56S 172.5E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/28) southwest winds were tracking east rebuilding at 50 kts with 45 kts southwest winds over a solid area with seas 34 ft at at 56.25S 173.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east with southwest winds 40-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 56.75S 160W aimed northeast. Fetch held on Tues AM (4/29) while tracking east with seas 31 ft at 59.75S 145W aimed northeast with the wave model anomaly interfering some. Fetch faded in the evening from the southwest at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 28 ft at 58.25S 133.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there.

Oahu: Swell peaking on Tues (5/6) at 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (5/7) from 0.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/6) building to 1.0 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds Wed (5/7) to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady Thurs (5/8) at 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (5/9) from 1.6 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (5/10) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/6) building to 0.8 ft @ 20-21 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell builds Wed (5/7) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady Thurs (5/8) at 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (5/9) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (5/10) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction:198 degrees

Central Pacific Gale
Another gale started building over the Central South Pacific on Thurs AM (5/1) with 50-55 kt south winds tracking east with seas building from 32 ft at 59.75S 155.75W aimed east-northeast and with the ice anomaly interfering with it. In the evening southwest winds built to 50 kts with the gale lifting northeast with seas 38 ft over a smallish area at 58.25S 145.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was lifting hard northeast on Fri AM (5/2) with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 34 ft at 55.75S 121W aimed northeast with a broader area of 31 ft seas just north of it. In the evening fetch held while pushing east of the Southern CA swell window with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 37 ft at 52.75S 114.25W and east of the Southern CA swell window. The gale tracked east Sat AM (5/3) with southwest winds fading from 35 kts and seas fading from 32 ft at 50.25S 108W aimed northeast targeting only South America. The gale dissipated after that while tracking east-northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/9) building to 1.1 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Sat (5/10) to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/11) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/12) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/9) building to 0.8 ft @ 20 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Sat (5/10) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/11) at 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/12) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Another Central South Pacific Gale
And yet another gale developed east of New Zealand on Sat PM (5/3) with 35 kt south winds and 24 ft seas at 46S 172.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/4) the gale was tracking hard north-northeast with 35 kt south winds and seas 26 ft at 40S 169.5W aimed north-northeast. In the evening the gale continued north-northeast with 40 kt south winds over a building area and seas 29 ft at 40S 162W aimed north. On Mon AM (5/5) the gale was still lifting northeast with 40 kt south winds and seas 31 ft aimed due north at 37S 160.5W. Fetch faded in the evening at 35 kts from the south with seas 26 ft at 33S 154W, way north of normal. Fetch was fading Tues AM (5/6) from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 32.5S 151W. Small swell has been generated.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/10) building to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaks Sun AM (5/11) at 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (5/12) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Tues (5/13) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/13) peaking later at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding Wed (5/14) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (5/15) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (5/12) building to 0.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds some on Tues (5/13) peaking later at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding Wed (5/14) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (5/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing south of New Zealand tracking east-northeast Sat-Sun (5/11) with up to 45 kts southwest winds and seas 35 ft at 61.5S 161E aimed east-northeast initially and steadily fading while interacting with iceberg fragments east of there. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina is Gone
Weak Active MJO In Control
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere aging will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/5) 5 day average winds were strong east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were brisk east over the far East Pacific and light west over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/6) Today modest to moderate east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with weak to modest west anomalies over the West KWGA with the dividing line moving from 135E to 150E. The forecast indicates the dividing line oscillating from 150E to 165E with west anomalies holding west of that line and east anomalies east of there through the end of the model run on 5/22. La Nina is gone with it's remnants dissolving over the next week.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/6) The array is now fully operational east of 160E. This is a major milestone. Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was tracking east from 165E now to 178E. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east from 177W to 168W to now 162W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 deg in the East Pacific and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over the equatorial Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -1 degs were spread between 160W to 115W 150 to 125 meters down and losing energy. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/28 indicates cool anomalies at 0 to -0.5 degs were in pockets over the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building east to 135W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/28) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral end-to-end. 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator from 2N and 2S and points north and south of there. 2 pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling the equator at 155W 5N and 5S while weakening. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/28) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Weak warm anomalies were filling the equator across the Pacific. The West Pacific Warm Pool was building west of 176W. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/5) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the Equatorial Pacific with previous cool pockets all but gone. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching about 5-10N then dissipating outlining the normal strengthened Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/5): Temps were neutral from Ecuador to the Galapagos west to 130W with 1 tiny pocket of cooling water off Ecuador. Modest warming was west of 130W to 160E.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/6) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling at -0.100 degs but generally steady and have been rising since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/6) Today's temps were rising at -0.034 and have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were down slightly at -0.1 degs week of 4/30. Previously temps were 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (5/6) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in May then to +0.2 degs in June, falling to -0.1 degs Nov, rising back above neutral in Dec and rising from there. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/5) the Daily Index was positive at +1.47 but mostly negative the last 12 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising from +0.40 to +0.60 and has been generally falling since early April and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +5.20 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table