Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 12.6 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 6.7 secs from 67 degrees. Water temp 77.4 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 6.8 secs from 35 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 15.3 secs from 146 degrees. Wind northwest 10-14 kts. Water temperature 62.4 degs, 55.0 (Harvest 071), 63.0 (Topanga 103), 61.2 (Long Beach 215), 64.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 64.4 (Del Mar 153), 62.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.3 ft @ 11.6 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.7 ft @ 9.5 secs from 278 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 16.3 secs from 214 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.9 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.5 ft @ 6.6 secs from 280 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 14.5 secs from 201 degrees. Water temperature 63.7 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 10.9 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 7.7 ft @ 11.7 secs from 300 degrees. Wind northwest 14-20 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 56.5 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.1 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 58.1 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (5/13) in North and Central CA sets were 1-2 ft overhead and warbled and mushed with whitecaps just outside the lineup. Protected breaks were head high and reasonably lined up though a bit uneven and mushed and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and reasonably lined up with decent form but pretty soft and a bit warbled from northwest wrap around wind and whitecaps outside the kelp. In Ventura County waves were maybe knee to thigh high and barely lined up and mushed with warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up but soft and weak and warbled from modest west wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up but with poor form and mushed and lightly warbled. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up but mushed and warbled. Oahu's North Shore had sets at knee to thigh high and lined up with poor form but almost clean but with some northeast warble running through it. The South Shore had sets at waist to maybe chest high on occasion and lined up with decent form and clean early. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped from brisk east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (5/13) Hawaii was getting some background northwest windswell on north facing shores and southern hemi swell from the 8th gale in a series. California was getting residual swell from the 6th gale in the series and fresh swell from the 7th gale. the 7th gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs-Fri (5/2) with 38 ft seas aimed decently northeast. And an 8th developed in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific Sun-Mon (5/5) with seas building to 31 ft aimed well northeast. After that a gale was developing south of New Zealand on Sat (5/10) tracking east with seas to 30 ft initially but fading fast before making much headway into the Southwest Pacific. After that things go quiet.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (5/13) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. The North Pacific is likely asleep for the Summer.

Tiny Northwest Pacific Gale
Aa tiny gale developed Thurs AM (5/8) with 35 kt west winds off the North Kuril Islands tracking east with seas 25 ft at 45.5N 165.25E aimed east. In the evening 35 kt west winds were approaching the North Dateline region with seas 24 ft at 47.25N 171.5E aimed east. On Fri AM (5/9) fetch was fading over the North Dateline Region from 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 48.25N 177.5W aimed east. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Perhaps tiny background swell to result for Hawaii with luck.

Oahu: Swell fading on Tues (5/13) from 1.3 ft @ 12 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (5/14) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Local northwest windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Thurs AM (5/15) the gradient holds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for most of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Local northwest windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Fri AM (5/16) the gradient fades some with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA early nearshore and 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the depth of the gradient fades with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA over a shallow area nearshore and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Limited short period northwest windswell expected. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (5/17) the gradient fades but winds persist with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build in coverage at 20+ kts for all of North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Local short period windswell building. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (5/18) a full Springtime gradient is to be in effect with northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA and northwest winds 15-20 kts for Southern CA. In the afternoon a full northwest winds event is to be in development with northwest winds 30 kts for North and Central CA and 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Local windswell building.
Mon AM (5/19) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts nearshore for Central CA and 25 kts off the coast. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 25-30 kts for North CA and 20+ kts for Central CA. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (5/20) the gradient lifts north some northwest winds 25-30 kts for North CA centered at Bodega Bay and 15-20 kts for Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell building some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 7, 10, 3, and 3 inches all on 5/13 and again on Sat (5/17-18).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 7,000 ft 5/13 rising to 10,500 ft 5/15 into 5/16, falling to 6,500 ft later on 5/17, then building to late on 5/19 and holding.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (5/13) the jetstream was running zonal west to east on the 55s latitude line with winds weak at 80-90 kts with no troughs offering no support for gale formation.Over the next 72 hours a weak ridge is to push south over the far Southeast Pacific hindering support for gale formation there while another ridge starts to build under New Zealand with the same impact. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (5/17) a weak trough is forecast developing while tracking east over the Southeast Pacific building into Sun (5/18) being fed by 120 kts winds offering a little support for gale formation there but tracking east of the Southern CA swell window later Mon (5/19). A stronger ridge is forecast developing under New Zealand on Tues (5/20) further hindering support for gale formation over t he Southwest Pacific.

Surface Analysis
Swell was fading in California from the final gael in the series (see Another Central South Pacific Gale below).

A gale developed south of New Zealand tracking east-northeast Sat AM (5/1) with 35 kt west-southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 58.75S 162.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30 kts with seas 28 ft at 58.5S 173.25E aimed east-northeast. The gale dissipated Sun AM (5/11). No meaningful swell to result.

On Thurs PM (5/15) a gale is forecast developing over the Southeast Pacific producing southwest winds at 45-50 kts starting to get some traction on the oceans surface with seas building. On Fri AM (5/16) southwest winds are to be 50 kts tracking east with seas 36 ft at 49.25S 129.75W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch is to be fading from 40 kts with seas 37 ft at 51.25S 122W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch and seas are to be fading while falling southeast. No more potential for swell production is forecast. Something to monitor.

On Fri PM (5/16) another gale is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific with 45-50 kts southwest winds and seas building to 33 ft at 50.5S 156W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch is to track east with winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with seas 35 ft at 46.75S 148.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 46S 138W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (5/18) from 35 kts aimed well northeast with seas fading from 31 ft at 42.75S 131.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Another Central South Pacific Gale
And yet another gale developed east of New Zealand on Sat PM (5/3) with 35 kt south winds and 24 ft seas at 46S 172.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/4) the gale was tracking hard north-northeast with 35 kt south winds and seas 26 ft at 40S 169.5W aimed north-northeast. In the evening the gale continued north-northeast with 40 kt south winds over a building area and seas 29 ft at 40S 162W aimed north. On Mon AM (5/5) the gale was still lifting northeast with 40 kt south winds and seas 31 ft aimed due north at 37S 160.5W. Fetch faded in the evening at 35 kts from the south with seas 26 ft at 33S 154W, way north of normal. Fetch was fading Tues AM (5/6) from 30 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 32.5S 151W. Small swell has been generated.

Oahu: Dribbles on Tues (5/13) fading from 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 191 degrees

Southern CA: Swell builds some on Tues (5/13) peaking later at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding Wed (5/14) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (5/15) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Swell builds some on Tues (5/13) peaking later at 1.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell holding Wed (5/14) at 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (5/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another small gale is to develop under New Zealand on Mon AM (5/19) with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 34 ft at 58S 174.25e aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch is to push east at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 58S 175w aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/12) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the far East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/13) Today modest west anomalies were filling a small portion of the West KWGA and moderate east anomalies were filling the majority of the KWGA with the dividing line at 140E. The forecast indicates the same pattern holding over the next 2 weeks ending on 5/29. La Nina is not giving up.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/12) Currently a neutral to very weak Active MJO (wet air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern on days 5 and 10 of the model run then returning to a weak Active pattern (wet air) on day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/13) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the far East Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it moving over the West Pacific to the East Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model has it tracking to the West Pacific 4 days from now and stalling there for the next 2 weeks and very weak over the duration.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/13) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was stationary between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA. The forecast has it filling the KWGA while tracking slowly east through 5/28. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 6/7 filling it through the last day of the model run on 6/22 while tracking east. But note - the Active MJO has been stuck and stationary over the entrance to the West Pacific for weeks now per this model. Suspect this model is not functioning correctly. .
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/12) Today modest west anomalies were filling the east KWGA with moderate west anomalies over the West KWGA with the dividing line 165E. West anomalies to build to moderate status while retrograding slowly west into 5/19 then fading with a weak Inactive Phase and east anomalies filling the KWGA 5/23-6/1 then tracking east fast. West anomalies to return filling the KWGA 6/2 through the end of the model run on 6/9.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were filling most of the KWGA (east to the dateline) while the Inactive Phase of the MJO was weakly developing over the West Pacific. Neutral to weak west anomalies are to hold from here forward with no east anomalies forecast in the KWGA other than a small spurt on the dateline 5/14-5/19). An Active contour to is redevelop over the dateline 5/22-6/4. The Inactive Phase that is currently over the West KWGA is to surge east filling the KWGA 6/3 through 6/19 but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/16 filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/10 with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline 6/27 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 6/6 and then moving more aggressively east from 140E on 6/27 reaching 165E and holding through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 2 contours. The second contour is to fade on 6/1. The third is to be east to 170E on 6/30 and holding there. This suggests La Nina is gone in the atmosphere and is to be turning fully neutral over the next month.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/6) The array is now fully operational east of 160E. This is a major milestone.
Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was tracking east from 165E now to 177E. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east from 177W to 164W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and +1 deg in the East Pacific down 25m and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over the equatorial Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -1 degs were spread between 160W to 110W 150 meters down and losing energy. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/8 indicates cool anomalies were fading fast at 0 to -0.5 degs in pockets over the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of the cool pool. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific west of the dateline and building east to 140W driven by the aforementioned Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral end-to-end 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator above and below 2N to 2S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at 155W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/8) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Weak warm anomalies were filling the equator across the Pacific. The West Pacific Warm Pool was building west of 140W. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/12) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the Equatorial Pacific with previous cool pockets all but gone. Warming anomalies were south of the equator and neutral anomalies north of there. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/12): Temps were neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/13) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.065 degs and have been rising slightly since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/13) Today's temps are falling at -0.213 and have been falling slightly since 5/8 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at +0.1 degs well of 5/7. Previously temps were -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (5/13) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in May then to +0.15 degs in June, falling to 0.0 degs Aug and holding there into Dec then rising from there. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/13) the Daily Index was positive at +1.47 and have been mostly negative the last 21 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was falling at -3.10 and has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +2.94 and in ENSO neutral territory too.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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