BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, May 14, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (5/13) in North and Central CA waves were waist to maybe chest high on the peak and somewhat lined up and cleanish but with steady south texture intermixed. Protected breaks were waist high or so and weakly lined up with no wind and clean conditions but weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and lined up and real clean with decent to good form but a little soft on occasion. In Southern California/Ventura waves were near flat with thigh high sets and clean but with northwest texture and lined up but soft. Central Orange County had waves at waist high with a few stray chest high peaks the sets and lined up but soft and crumbled from texture created by modest south wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves to chest high on the sets and lined up with good form when they came and clean. North San Diego had waves to waist high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean early but pretty weak. Oahu's North Shore had waves at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean early with just some slight intermixed warble. The South Shore had a few stray waves at waist high but heavily textured from southerly wind and soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and glassy with light south wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (5/14) New Zealand swell was still showing along the California Coast but fading and gone in Hawaii. The swell originated from a gale that developed south of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (5/2) producing 33 ft seas aimed northeast with lingering energy at 26 ft into early Fri (5/3) aimed northeast. Another gale developed while tracking east under New Zealand Wed-Fri (5/10) with up to 38 ft seas initially. Swell from that is tracking northeast. Remnants of this gale redeveloped in the Central South Pacific lifting northeast Sun (5/12) with up to 34 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast followed directly by a broader gale Sun-Tues (5/14) with 36 ft seas aimed northeast. A nice little swell pattern is setting up. But beyond no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (5/14) swell was fading in Hawaii from a small gale that developed off Kamchatka (see Kamchatka Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

Kamchatka Gale
On Thurs AM (5/9) a small gale developed just east of Kamchatka and south of the Western Aleutians with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building from 22 ft at 50.75N 169.25E aimed southeast. In the evening west winds were 35 kts pushing over the North Dateline region with seas 23 ft at 49.25N 177.75E aimed southeast. Fetch faded after that. Low odds for small swell resulting for Hawaii.

Oahu: Swell fading Tues AM (5/14) from 2/2 ft @ 12 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (5/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 11 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Freeze Level for the intersection of Tioga Pass road and the John Muir Trail (Toulome Meadows): Freeze Level 12,000 ft today (5/14) holding into (5/19) then starting to fall in the afternoon dropping to 10,000 ft 5/20 and 8,900 ft later on 5/21 then rebuilding on 5/23 to 11,000 ft.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (5/14) the influential southern branch of the jet was falling southeast under New Zealand pushing to the Ross Ice Shelf in the west forming a ridge and offering no support for gale formation. East of there a broad trough was present over the Southeast Pacific but being fed by only 90 kts winds offering no significant support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough in the east is to weaken more and moving east of even the Southern CA swell window on Thurs (5/16) offering no support for gale formation while the ridge holds under New Zealand. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (5/19) a weak trough is forecast trying to develop under New Zealand but weak and falling south progressively and all but gone on Sun (5/19) offering nothing. Another trough is to develop under New Zealand on Mon (5/20) but it too quickly falling southeast offering nothing. So for the next week no obvious support for gale formation is indicated.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday AM (5/14) swell originating from a gale previously under New Zealand was fading in California (see First New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours slowly fading New Zealand swell is to be the main source of surf.

But swell from a primer gale that passed under New Zealand was propagating northeast (see Primer New Zealand Gale below).

A second gale developed south of New Zealand and swell is also propagating northeast (see Second New Zealand Gale below).

Another gale developed over the South Central Pacific Sat PM (5/11) (see Tiny South Central Pacific gale below).

Any yet a broader gale developed directly behind that under New Zealand with swell propagating northeast (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

First New Zealand Gale
On Tues PM (4/30) a gale started building southwest of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 61.75S 150.75E aimed east-northeast. Fetch was building while lifting east-northeast Wed AM (5/1) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 58.75S 159.5E aimed east-northeast. Fetch continued lifting northeast in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 54.75S 167.25E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (5/2) southwest winds built in coverage at 35-40 kts aimed well northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 55S 171E aimed well northeast. South to southwest fetch was fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 29-30 ft at 54.5S 179.75W aimed north-northeast at Hawaii and the US West Coast. Southwest fetch was fading Fri AM (5/3) from 30-35 ks with seas 26 ft at 51.5S 179.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading some on Tues (5/14) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (5/15) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft) early. Dribbles on Thurs AM (5/16) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). early. Swell Direction: 214-215 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

Primer New Zealand Gale
On Mon PM (5/6) a small gale developed south of Tasmania with 40 kt west winds and seas 35 ft at 56.75S 150.25E aimed east. On Tues AM (5/7) the gael was fading with 40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 55.5S 165.5E aimed east. Residuals were fading in the evening with 40 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 58S 179E aimed east.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (5/15) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Thurs (5/16) at 2.2 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (5/17) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft) and being overridden by new swell (see Second New Zealand Gale below). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/17) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). On Sat (5/18) swell is to build to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/19) at 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) early. Swell fading Mon (5/20) while be overridden by new swell from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217-219 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (5/17) building to 1.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). On Sat (5/18) swell is to build to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/19) at 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/20) while be overridden by new swell from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216-218 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

Second New Zealand Gale
A stronger gale developed south of Tasmania Wed AM (5/8) producing a broad area of west-southwest winds at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 61.25S 134.75E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east with 40 kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas 37 ft at 61S 150.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (5/9) southwest fetch was aimed more northeasterly at 40-45 kts positioned south of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 57.75S 164.25E aimed east-northeast. Fetch faded in the evening but turning hard southwesterly at 35 kts with seas 33 ft at 56.5S 173.5E aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Fri AM (5/10) at 30-35 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 51.25S 176.25W aimed northeast. Seas and fetch continued into Sat (5/11) at 25 ft aimed northeast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/16) building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (5/17) at 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft) midday. Swell fading Sat (5/18) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/19) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft) and being overcome by newer swell. Swell Direction: 198 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/18) building to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building Sun (5/19) at 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (5/20) at 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) while starting to become overrun by new swell from the Central South Pacific. Swell Direction: 212-213 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (5/18) building to 1.5 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell building Sun (5/19) at 2.1 ft @ 17-18 secs (3.5 ft). Swell holding Mon (5/20) at 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft) while starting to become overrun by new swell from the Central South Pacific. Swell Direction: 211-212 degrees and unshadowed by Tahiti

Tiny South Central Pacific Gale
And remnant energy from the previous New Zealand gale (see second New Zealand Gale above) started reorganizing Sat PM (5/11) over the South Central Pacific producing south winds at 40-45 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 32 ft at 55.25S 161.5W aimed north. On Sun AM (5/12) southwest winds were lifting northeast at 35 kts over a tiny area with seas fading from 33 ft at 52.25S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30 kts from the southwest and becoming absorbed by a new fetch southwest of it. Whatever swell is generated is to be buried in swell from systems before and after it.

Central Southeast Pacific Gale
And starting Sat PM (5/11) a new gale started building south of New Zealand producing a broad fetch of 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 59.5S 169E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/12) southwest winds built at 50-55 kts over a solid area with seas building to 35 ft at 57.25S 175W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 45-50 kts solid lifting northeast with seas 36 ft at 54.5S 163W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (5/13) southwest winds were fading from 40-45 kts with seas 36 ft at 52.25S 154W over the Central South Pacific aimed well northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts but still well organized with seas 32 ft at 49.25S 146.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading Tues AM (5/14) with seas fading from 28 ft at 51.25S 133.25W.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/19) building to 1.7 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (5/20) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (5/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (5/22) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/21) building to 1.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds on Wed (5/22) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/23) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198-206 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/21) building to 1.5 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds on Wed (5/22) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/23) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/24) fading from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (5/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197-205 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. Winter is over.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/13) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/14) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies holding at moderate status mostly filling the KWGA though 5/19. West anomalies to start collapsing 5/20 and gone by 5/22 giving way to strong east anomalies filling the KWGA into 5/26 then weaker if not turning weak westerly 5/26 through the end of the model run on 5/30 limited to the far West Pacific.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (5/14) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was building some in the west reaching east to 179E. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 167W. The 28 deg isotherm line was gone east of 152W and steadily sliding west. The 24 degree isotherm extended the whole way across the Pacific and was shallow but stable in the east at 25m deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were at +2 degs in one small pocket over the far East equatorial Pacific compressed to the surface (25-30m deep) with +1 degree anomalies building down to 150m deep limited to points west of 150W. El Nino is gone subsurface. A large pool of cold anomalies at down to -5 degs were down at 120m deep between 110W-180W reaching east and weaker to a point along Ecuador basically filling the entire Equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/8 indicates cold water was in control at the surface from Ecuador west to 130W and at depth west to 160E. The last remnant warm surface water from El Nino was getting pushed west by trades starting at 140W and points west of there. Cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline below it. La Nina is developing. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -10 cms east of 170W with a small pocket at -15 cms at 120W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/8) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 160W. El Nino is gone from the subsurface perspective and now clearly turning to La Nina.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/13) The latest images depict a modest warm pool was north and south of the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline but with a well developed cool pool imbedded in the middle of it starting along the coasts of Peru and Ecuador then turning west on the equator continuing out to 160W. There is still leftover El Nino warm water present at the surface but with a developing cold La Nina signal starting to dominate in the heart of the fading warm pool. We are in a transitional phase.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/13): Water temps were falling on the equator from Peru up to Ecuador then turning west over the Galapagos out to 120W. Warm temp were west of 120W. A neutral pattern was present everywhere else near the equator.
Hi-res Overview: (5/13) Warmer than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from just west of the Galapagos to the dateline with a cool stream embedded through it extending west from the coast of Ecuador to 130W over the equator. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina stream.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/14) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling some at -0.861 after rising to +0.184 degrees 5/2 after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and have been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/14) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +0.070 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST are steadily falling at +0.3 (week of 5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.15 March.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan and +1.65 in Feb then down to +1.0 degs mid-April.
Forecast (5/13) - Temps to fall to 0.0 late-May and -0.5 mid-July and -1.50 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.25 degs. According to this version of the model we are past the peak of a strong El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.407 degs today and its the 12th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to +0.036 in May (that's a 3 months running mean) then fading from there down to -0.927 in Oct and holding there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -1.075 in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.927 in Oct.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/13) the Daily Index was rising at +6.30 today. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was steady at -2.54, Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at -2.11. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/19 and hard negative in 10/21-10/23 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/23-2/24 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24, then falling to -1.57 in March). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table