Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.3 secs from 204 degrees. Water temp 78.4 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 7.9 secs from 56 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.4 secs from 23 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 15.0 secs from 220 degrees. Wind northeast 2 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs, 53.2 (Harvest 071), 66.4 (Topanga 103), 64.2 (Long Beach 215), 66.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.8 (Del Mar 153), 66.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.2 ft @ 16.1 secs from 185 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.5 ft @ 6.6 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.9 secs from 200 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.7 ft @ 15.0 secs from 190 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 16.7 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 193 degrees. Water temperature 65.3 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 15.8 secs from 183 degrees. Wind northwest 18-21 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), W 8 kts San Francisco (46026), WNW 10 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and WMW 1.9 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.4 (San Francisco 46026), 54.3 (SF Bar 142), 50.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 50.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.6 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (5/25) in North and Central CA sets were knee to thigh high coming from the northwest and mushed and weak and warbled and not really rideable. Protected breaks were flat and warbled. At Santa Cruz surf was up to head high on the sets and lined up if not closed out and reasonably solid and clean. In Ventura County waves were waist high on the sets and lined up and fairly clean with decent form but soft. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up if not closed out coming from the south and a bit warbled from light south wind early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and clean but a little bit out of control on the bigger sets. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. Oahu's North Shore was flat to knee high and a bit warbled early. The South Shore had sets at knee to thigh high and lined up with decent form and clean but real soft early. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (5/25) California was getting southern hemi swell from a small gale that developed in the Southeast Pacific on Thurs-Fri (5/16) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east. And another developed over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (5/17) with 31 ft seas aimed northeast. That swell is building underneath. Another gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific Tues-Wed (5/21) with 40 ft seas in the Southern CA swell window then tracking east of there with seas holding at 40 ft aimed east targeting South America. Another small gale started developing southeast of New Zealand tracking northeast Sat--Mon (5/26) with 30-31 ft seas aimed northeast while tracking across the entire South Pacific. Another is forecast over the far Southeast Pacific Thurs-Fri (5/30) with 43 ft seas aimed east targeting mainly South America. And another is forecast developing south of the Tasman Sea Fri (5/30) with 35 ft sea aimed northeast then building while pushing northeast from a point just south of New Zealand Sat-Sun (6/1) with 37 ft sea aimed northeast. A nice little pattern is setting up.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (5/25) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (5/26) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building some. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (5/27) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be fading from 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading later.
Wed AM (5/28) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and the same for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15+ kts for North and Central CA but over a shallow area. limited short period northwest windswell possible.
Thurs AM (5/29) northwest winds to be 15+ kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 20-25 kts for North CA and the same for Central CA. Northwest windswell building some.
Fri AM (5/30) the fetch builds in coverage with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North CA focused on Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 15-20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts from Bodega Bay southward. Windswell building some.
Sat AM (5/31) fetch is to fade with northwest winds 15-20 kts off the coast of Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 10 kts nearshore for North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell fading fast.
Sun AM (6/1) low pressure is to be building off Oregon producing northwest winds at 30 kts well off the coast there with northwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. Perhaps windswell building from the low off the coast.No precip forecast.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps generally 40-45 degs into Tues (5/27) rising to 50 degs and then 55-60 degrees from Thurs (5/29) through Sun (6/1) then fading to 45 degs on Mon (6/2).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (5/19) the jetstream was tracking east on the 60S latitude line across the Southwest Pacific then lifting hard northeast forming a trough over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 150 kt winds offering good support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to track east while slowly weakening and pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Mon (5/26). Back to the west the jet is to remain respectable tracking east on the 58S latitude with winds 110 kts not offering anything yet. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (5/29) the jet is to be ridging hard south over the Central South Pacific reaching south to 70S and over Antarctic Ice offering nothing but with a trough developing east of there over the Southeast Pacific being fed by 140 kt winds offering support for gale development there and pushing east of the Southern CA swell window later Fri (5/30) then tracking east targeting mainly South America. And on Fri (5/30) a new trough is to be building south of the Tasman Sea with winds 130 kts offering support for gale formation and moving southeast of New Zealand on Sun (6/1) while weakening but still supporting gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Sun (5/25) swell was hitting California from a gale previously over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be hitting California from a second gale that tracked northeast over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below). And another smaller swell is to be right behind originating from a gale in the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Storm below).

On Sat AM (5/24) a gale started to develop southeast of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 56S 171W aimed east-northeast. In the evening the gael tracked northeast with southwest winds building to 50 kts over a tiny area and seas 29 ft at 50.25S 155.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (5/26) south winds were 45+ kts aimed northeast with seas 31 ft at 46S 141.5W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale is to over the far Southeast Pacific with southwest winds 35-40 kts aimed well north with seas 31 ft at 45S 133W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/26) southwest winds to be over the far Southeast Pacific with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 30 ft at 48.25S 125.5W aimed northeast. Fetch tracking east in the evening at 35-40 kts with seas 32 ft at 44.25S 117.75W moving east of the Southern CA swell window. Fetch and seas fading after that. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (5/15) a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific producing southwest winds at 45 kts over a small area trying to get traction on the oceans surface. In the afternoon southwest winds built to 45-55 kts getting some traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 31 ft at 47.75S 131.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (5/16) southwest winds were 50-55 kts tracking east with seas 40 ft at 47.75S 128W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch was fading while falling southeast at 40 kts with seas 36 ft at 51.5S 120.75W aimed east and southeast while moving out of the Southern CA swell window. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch and seas were fading while falling southeast. No more potential for swell production was occurring.

Southern CA: Swell peaking Sat AM (5/24) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/25) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5 ft) and being overrun by new swell. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking Sat AM (5/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/25) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (5/16) a gale developed southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 45 kt west winds and seas 33 ft at 58S 170.5W aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east-northeast fast over the Central South Pacific with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 31 ft at 54S 160W aimed northeast. The issue was the fetch was tracking east-northeast too fast to get optimal traction on the oceans surface. On Sat AM (5/17) fetch was racing northeast with winds 40 kts over a decent area aimed northeast with seas 29-30 ft at 47.5S 145W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch continued lifting northeast while fading from 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 44S 133W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA : Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/25) building to 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell to fade Mon AM (5/26) from 2.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (5/27) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195-200 degrees

North CA : Expect swell arrival on Sun (5/25) building to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell to fade Mon AM (5/26) from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Tues AM (5/27) from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southeast Pacific Storm
On Mon AM (5/19) a gale started to develop over the Southeast Pacific with west winds 35 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 50.5S 142W aimed east. In the evening south winds built to 50-55 kts over a small area aimed north with seas 30 ft at 51.75S 129W aimed well northeast. On Tues AM (5/20) southwest winds were 50-55 kts with seas 40 ft at 49.75S 118.75W and still in the Southern CA swell window. In the evening southwest winds were east of the Southern CA swell window at 45 kts and seas 40 ft at 47S 110.25W targeting only Chile, Peru and Central America. Wed AM (5/21) south fetch was fading from 35-40 kts over a broad area off South Chile aimed north with seas fading from 31 ft at 45.25S 101.5W targeting South America well. Seas and fetch faded after that.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building Wed AM (5/28) to 2.2 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (5/29) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (5/27) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5 ft). Swell building Wed AM (5/28) to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (5/29) from 1.4 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 182 degrees

Strong Indian Ocean Storm
A strong storm developed in the Southeast Indian Ocean and at 06Z Mon (5/19) produced 54 ft seas at 51.5S 87.25E aimed right down the 217.19 deg great circle path to Southern CA. This is an unobstructed path west of Tahiti too. But, the seas were 9271 nmiles out. Odds are exceeding low of anything measurable by a buoy much less rideable hitting Southern CA. But maybe with luck the buoys will pick up on a set or two. Should be roughly 50 minutes between sets.

Southern CA: For fun - Swell arrival if period were 25 secs would be Wed (5/28) starting at 7 PM. 22 sec energy would hit by Fri (5/30) at 4 AM. Period would drop to 20 secs on Sat (5/31) at 9 AM. Swell size theoretically could be 3.85 ft but I don't believe my swell decay charts over a near 10,000 nmile distance and have never seen any swell energy every actually materialize in California from any storm in the Indian Ocean (yes, this scenario has happened before). Guess there's always a chance for a first one. Something to monitor if not just as a fun science experiment.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (5/29) a small gale is forecast developing over the far Southeast Pacific with 55 kts west winds and seas to 43 ft Fri AM (5/30) at 52.5S 117.5W aimed east-northeast providing limited hope for Southern CA but mainly South America.

On Sat (5/31) a gale is forecast building south of the Tasman Sea with south winds 45-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 51S 157.5E aimed northeast then sneaking east under New Zealand late Sat into Sun AM (6/1) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 46.5S 178.75W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (5/24) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the far East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (5/25) Today modest west anomalies were filling a small portion of the far West KWGA and moderate east anomalies were filling the majority of the KWGA with the dividing line at 140E. The forecast indicates the same pattern holding until 5/30 then east anomalies start retracting reaching the dateline 6/7 with west anomalies build east filling the KWGA at the end of the model run on 6/10. La Nina is to be fully gone in about a week.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (5/24) Currently a weak Active MJO (wet air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the weak Active Phase (wet air) building slowly east on day 5 of the model run filling the KWGA on day 10 and holding while expanding east on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (5/25) - The models depict the Active Phase was very weak over the Central Maritime Continent today. The statistic model has it moving to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and still weak. The dynamic model indicates the same thing though maybe not quite reaching the Central West Pacific 15 days out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (5/25) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was stationary between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA. The forecast has it filling the KWGA while tracking slowly east through 6/9. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 6/14 filling it through the last day of the model run on 7/4 while tracking east. But note - the Active MJO has been stuck and stationary over the entrance to the West Pacific for weeks now per this model. Suspect this model is not functioning correctly.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/24) Today modest west anomalies were filling the far west KWGA with moderate east anomalies over the East KWGA with the dividing line 140E and Inactive Contours filling the West KWGA. No change is forecast through 6/1 with a weak Inactive Phase pushing east over the KWGA. After that starting 6/2 east anomalies are to start collapsing with west anomalies tracking east filling the KWGA 6/7 and holding through the end of the model run on 6/21 with a single contour Active phase over the KWGA 6/6-6/18.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (5/25) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral to west anomalies were filling the West KWGA and East anomalies from 140E and points east of there with no MJO contours indicated. No real change is forecast through 6/7 with a weak MJO pattern forecast. On 6/9 east anomalies are to collapse with weak west anomalies pushing east filling the KWGA by 6/10 and holding moving forward with no meaningful MJO signal indicated until 7/1 when the Active Phase develops filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 8/22 with west anomalies building to moderate if not strong status over the dateline 7/4 and beyond. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 6/27 and then moving more aggressively east from 140E reaching 165E and holding through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 2 contours. The second contour is to fade on 6/8. The third is to ease east from today forward reaching 170W on 7/12 and holding there just east of the KWGA. This suggests La Nina is slowly fading in the atmosphere and is to be turning fully neutral in mid-June.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E. This is a major milestone.
Today (5/25) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was steady at 179E. The 28 deg isotherm line was now solid at 163W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m and +1 deg in the East Pacific down 50m and connected with 0 degree anomalies filling the area above 100 meters over the entire equatorial Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -1 degs were spread between 160W to 110W 150 meters down and losing energy. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 5/18 indicates cool anomalies were just below neutral in pockets over the upper thermocline (50 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of that cool pool. Warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific west of the dateline and building east to 120W driven by the aforementioned Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (5/18) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were above neutral in the east to 110W and in the west reaching east to 165W and neutral in between from 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator starting at 5N and 5S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at 130W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (5/18) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building east on the equator across the Pacific reaching east to 135W with scattered pockets of warm anomalies east of there to Ecuador. no cool anomalies were indicated. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (5/24) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the bulk of the Equatorial Pacific with scattered pockets of slightly cooling water interspersed. Warming anomalies were south of the equator and neutral anomalies north of there. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (5/24): Temps continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/25) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +0.296 degs and have been rising slightly since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (5/25) Today's temps were down some at -0.371 and were falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at -0.1 degs on 5/14. Previously temps were +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast).
Forecast (5/17) - Temps to rise to +0.00 in May then to +0.15 degs in June, falling to neutral (0.0 degs) Aug and holding there into Dec and Jan before rising some. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The April 21, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to +0.59 (up from -0.196 degs last month) and is the first month above neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to +0.149 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.004 NDJ then rising some to +0.056 at the end of the model run on DJF. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.103 JJA dropping to -0.150 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (5/25) the Daily Index was positive at +16.03 and has had been generally positive since 5/23, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising at -1.20 and has been generally falling the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was rising at +4.14 and in ENSO neutral territory too.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.