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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, June 9, 2020 12:37 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.3 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/8 thru Sun 6/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

NZ Swell #4 Weakly Hitting CA
SE Pac Swell Pushing North

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 14.1 secs from 185 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 6.6 secs from 47 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 16.5 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 8.4 secs from 309 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 18.0 secs from 202 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.6 ft @ 18.0 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 17.6 secs from 197 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 7.6 secs from 310 degrees with southern hemi swell 1.3 ft @ 17.7 secs from 195 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 14-18 kts. Water temp 50.4 degs (013), NA degs (012) and 55.8 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/9) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at thigh high and soft and formless but fairly clean early. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean but soft and mushed and weak with too low a tide early. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing set waves at waist to chest high on occasion and lined up and clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high or so and lined up and peeling on occasion and clean. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high and lined up when they came and clean but very inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had waves at chest to head high when they came and clean but pretty funky and warbled from northwest windswell. North San Diego had waves at waist to chest high and clean and lined up but pretty closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting fading southern hemi swell with waves to waist high and clean but weak and unremarkable. The East Shore was small with east tradewind swell at thigh high and almost chopped from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/9) in Hawaii no real swell of interest was hitting. In California swell was weakly hitting from the last in a series of gales that developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sat-Mon (6/1) producing up to 46 ft seas aimed northeast. A small gale formed on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (6/4) producing 32 ft seas aimed northeast. swell is radiating north towards CA. And a gale is passing east under New Zealand Mon-Tues (6/9) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east. Another small gale is to form southeast of New Zealand Fri-Sun (6/14) lifting north with up to 35 ft seas fading to 32 ft later in it's life. Otherwise no clearly defined swell producing weather systems are projected.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/9) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
Tuesday (6/9) winds were light over North CA then building from the north at 15-20 kts starting at Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception and over the Channel Islands and forecast fading to 15 kts later over the same area. Wed (6/10) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA south of Pt Arena and 20 kts early from Monterey Bay south to Pt Conception fading to 15 kts in the afternoon. Thurs (6/11) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts between Pt Reyes and Morro Bay early and fading in coverage limited to the Big Sur area later. Fri (6/12) north winds to be 5 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA building to 10-15 kts all location later and 20 kts for Pt Conception. Light rain possible for the Golden Gate northward in the afternoon and early evening continuing over the while Sierra overnight. Light snow for elevations above 8500 ft and sunset to 10 PM. Sat (6/13) North CA to have light winds early and Central CA is to have north winds 20 kts from Monterey south to Pt Conception and building there to 25-30 kts later. On Sun (6/14) north winds to be 10 kts early for North CA and 20 kts for Monterey southward to Pt Conception early building to 20+ kts for the area from Pt Arena to Pt Conception later. Mon (6/15) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts from Pt Arena to Pt Conception early holding all day with 15 kt winds extending north to Cape Mendocino later and building to 25 kts from Monterey to Pt Conception. Tues (6/16) north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts early from Cape Mendocino south to Pt Conception.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0.5, 0, 0.3 and 0 inches respectively (all on Fri PM 6/12).

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/8) the jetstream was split with the southern branch gently ridging south over the bulk of the South Pacific reaching down to 63S offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. But a weak pocket of wind energy at 130 kts was pushing under New Zealand offering some weak support for gale development aimed mostly east. Over the next 72 hours that wind pocket under New Zealand is to push east into late Wed (6/10) and weakening offering decreasing support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (6/12) wind energy is to start building south of New Zealand lifting northeast and then north at 140 kts starting to carve out a trough just east of New Zealand and building some into Sun (6/14) while lifting northeast over the South Central Pacific reaching north to 40S offering decent support for gale development. Some hope here possibly. On Mon (6/15) the trough is to get cutoff and a solid ridge is to set up pushing hard south to 70S under and southeast of New Zealand and sweeping east eliminating any support for gale development through Tues (6/16). Fortunately it is to be weakening at that time.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/9) swell from a gale that pushed under New Zealand was fading in Hawaii and building in California (see New Zealand Gale #4 below). A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific after that generating swell radiating north (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a weak primer gale started developing under New Zealand on Mon PM (6/8) producing 45 kt southwest winds over a small area and 30 ft seas at 58S 179E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (6/9) fetch was fading from 40 kts from the southwest with 29-30 ft seas over a small area at 57S 168W aimed northeast. Behind it a stronger gael was building south-southwest of New Zealand with 45 kt west winds and seas building to 39 ft over a modest sized area at 57S 157E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40 kts from the west-southwest and seas at 35 ft at 56S 171.5E aimed east. The gale is to push east-northeast on Wed AM (6/10) producing 30-35 kt west winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 55S 173W aimed east-northeast. This system is to be gone after that. Maybe some minimal swell to radiate northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast with luck. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale #4
Another solid gale started building under New Zealand on Fri PM (5/29) producing 40-45 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed northeast with 29 ft seas building at 58S 166E aimed east. On Sat AM (5/30) a solid area of 50 kt southwest winds were building south of New Zealand producing 43 ft seas at 60.5S 173E aimed east. The gale tracked east-northeast in the evening with 45-50 kts southwest winds over a solid area and seas 44 ft at 58.5S 171.5W aimed northeast. The gale continued east-northeast on Sun AM (5/31) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 40 ft over a decent area aimed northeast at 56.5S 159W. The gale was fading in the evening with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a solid area aimed well northeast and seas fading from 33 ft at 54S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Mon AM (6/1) from 30-35 kts over a modest area aimed north with seas 29 ft at 52S 140W aimed northeast. Fetch was gone in the evening. Swell is radiating northeast through pushing mainly east of Hawaii.

Southern CA: Swell continuing upwards on Tues (6/9) pushing 2.8 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/10) from 2.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals fading on Thurs (6/11) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

Northern CA: Swell continuing upwards on Tues (6/9) pushing 2.1 ft @ 17 secs late afternoon (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (6/10) from 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (6/3) producing a broad area of 35-40 kt southwest winds aimed well northeast with seas 31 ft at 56S 123W. Fetch was fading Thurs AM (6/4) at 35-40 kts from the southwest lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 52S 120W aimed northeast. The gale is to continue lifting northeast in the evening with 35 kt southerly winds but outside the CA swell window with seas 29 ft at 45S 111.5W targeting mainly Peru and Central America. The gale is to continue targeting Peru after that while fading.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs late (4.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 2.2 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 183 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/11) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell to peak on Fri (6/12) at 2.1 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/13) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the model suggest another gale is to form southeast of New Zealand on Fri AM (6/12) with lifting northeast with a broad area of 40-45 kts southwest winds and seas 29-30 ft at 54S 177.5E aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt southwest winds are to be lifting northeast with 35 ft seas at 55.5S 175W aimed northeast. The gale is to shrink some but start lifting due north Sat AM (6/13) with 40-45 kt south winds and seas 33 ft at 55.5S 168.5W aimed north to northeast. In the evening fetch is to hold coverage while lifting north at 40-45 kts with 33 ft seas at 49S 165W aimed north to northeast. On Sun AM (6/14) the gale is to be fading with south winds at 35-40 kts with 32 ft seas over a modest area aimed north at 44S 164W. In the evening fetch is to fade out with seas fading from 28 ft at 37S 161W aimed northeast. Possible decent swell radiating north towards Tahiti, Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Pattern In Control and Building

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/8) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then still easterly but weak to modest strength over the Dateline and KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning easterly over the Central Pacific and then modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/9) modest east anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for those anomalies holding and filling the KWGA through 6/15 then fading to neutral the last day of the model run on 6/16. West anomalies were over a small portion of the East Pacific today and are forecast to dissipate on 6/11 with mostly east anomalies over the East Pacific and solidifying their grip over that area through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/8) A moderate Inactive MJO/dry pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to hold on day 5 then fading some on day 10 and fading more on day 15 while the Active Phase builds over the Maritime Continent and starts seeping west into the KWGA. The dynamic model indicates much the same but with no Active Phase developing late in the run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/9) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/9) This model depicts the Inactive Phase was modest over the Central Pacific today and is to push east moving over Central America on 6/27. A weak Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 6/16 pushing slowly east with a second modest pulse pushing over the West Pacific on 7/4 tracking east and moving into Central America starting 7/4 and continuing through the end of model run on 7/19. A modest Inactive Phase is to start building in the far West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with a mix of mostly west anomalies over the KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies exiting east of the KWGA by 6/9 with a neutral MJO following but with modest to moderate east anomalies developing and filling the KWGA by 6/10 and if anything building in coverage continuing through the end of the model run on 7/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/9 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the KWGA today with a mix of mostly weak east anomalies indicated in the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to start building on 6/14 easing east through 7/19 with weak mostly east anomalies forecast over the KWGA and east anomalies also setting up over the East Pacific 6/16 and building steadily in coverage filling the East Pacific in late June and then holding steady for the foreseeable future. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far West KWGA on 6/28 and pushing west filling the KWGA 7/11 holding through 8/14 with very weak west anomalies in pockets filling the western half of the KWGA while east anomalies hold solid over the Eastern half of the KWGA and filling the remainder of the Pacific. After that an Inactive MJO is forecast 8/16 through the end of the model run on 9/6 with east anomalies filling the KWGA and much of the East Pacific. The low pass filter indicates no low or high pressure bias present in either the Indian Ocean or the Pacific for the moment. A high pressure bias is to appear over the East Pacific on 6/11 building steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 7/22 and possibly a third contour on 9/1 filling the bulk of the KWGA starting late June. And at the same time a single contour low pressure bias is to reappear over the Indian Ocean starting 7/23 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 6/22 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by early July.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was stable reaching east to 160E. The 29 deg isotherm was building reaching east to 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west to 157W today. The 24 deg isotherm was no longer pushing into Ecuador but was reaching the surface at 120W and stable. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific reaching east to 150W. There were no warm anomalies east of there. Cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a large subsurface pocket of cool water -2 degs 150 meters deep from 180W to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though has lost some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates the same thing with warm anomalies now gone in the East Pacific and with cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-170W at -5 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 160W and maybe losing a little coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing west to 165E (losing some ground there too) suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator and mostly holding in coverage. Negative anomalies were also now building along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/8) The latest images indicate cold water was building solidly over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were fading fast off the coast of Chile up into Peru and starting to turn cooler. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and building in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): A well defined cooling trend was from Ecuador down to Peru and pushing east on the equator out to 155W. Pockets of warming were on the equator west of 150W to the dateline. The short term trend is looking like a push firmly towards the development of La Nina with cool water over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific scraping any remaining warm equatorial water and pushing it quickly west to the far West equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (6/8) A stream of cool water was holding on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and if anything building. Warmer than normal temps were along the coast of South and Central America but fading fast with building pockets of cooler water developing there. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a building La Nina.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were again on the decline solidly dropping to -1.042 after previously falling to -0.810 on 5/27. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/9) Temps were fading some to -0.309 after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is on a firm downward trajectory after previously being in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/9) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.25 in late-May. The forecast depicts temps continuing to fall, down to -0.55 July 1, then continuing on a slower downward trajectory reaching down to -0.95 in early Nov and holding there through Dec, then starting to rebound in early 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.20 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in July 2020, then holding there through December 2020. The outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/9): The daily index was positive today at 7.31. The 30 day average was falling to -1.77. The 90 day average was rising to -2.50, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (5/31):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hEFabZMh2Tw&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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