Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 15.0 secs from 192 degrees. Water temp 78.6 (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were NA ft @ NA secs with swell NA ft @ NA secs from NA degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.0 secs from 64 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 16.0 secs from 194 degrees. Wind southeast 4-8 kts. Water temperature 65.9 degs, 57.0 (Harvest 071), 62.6 (Topanga 103), 60.3 (Long Beach 215), 61.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 63.1 (Del Mar 153), 64.6 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.2 ft @ 19.4 secs from 210 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.7 ft @ 19.1 secs from 262 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.7 secs from 220 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.1 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 19.2 secs from 213 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 17.2 secs from 206 degrees. Water temperature 65.5 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 18.5 secs from 212 degrees. Wind northwest 12-18 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), NW 10-14 kts San Francisco (46026), NW 11-12 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.3 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.9 (San Francisco 46026), 57.6 (SF Bar 142), 55.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801589), 58.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 59.4 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (6/9) in North and Central CA surf was thigh to maybe waist high coming from the northwest and warbled and mushed and nearly chopped from moderate northwest wind. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and weakly lined up when they came but soft and fairly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist to chest high on the rare sets on the peak and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean. In Ventura County waves were thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up and soft and clean with light fog early. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined up and fairly soft but real clean and very inconsistent early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare sets at up to head high and lined up with decent form and clean but real inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up if not slightly closed out when they came and clean early. Oahu's North Shore was near flat and clean with some northeast warble running through it. The South Shore had sets at head high and lined up when the sets came and clean with decent form early. The East Shore was getting trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (6/9) California was starting to see the beginnings of swell originating from a gale that developed south of the Tasman Sea Fri (5/30) with 29-30 ft sea aimed northeast then reorganized just east of New Zealand while pushing northeast Sat-Sun (6/1) with up to 34 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell from it is also fading in Hawaii. A small gale developed Fri-Sat (6/7) while lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 37-39 ft with residual energy holding into Sun (6/8) at 26-28 ft in the far Southeast Pacific. After that nothing meaningful is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Monday (6/9) no swell of interest was hitting our forecast area.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tues (6/10) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA down to Monterey Bay and 15-20 kts from the northwest south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and up to 20 kts in pockets south of Monterey Bay. Limited short period windswell possible.
Wed (6/11) a pressure gradient is to be building with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to ne 15-20 kts for North and Central CA. Local windswell building.
Thurs AM (6/12) the gradient builds with northwest winds at 20-25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts over all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North and Central CA. Northwest windswell building.
Fri AM (6/13) high pressure rules with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. Windswell holding.
Sat AM (6/14) northwest winds to be building in coverage at 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Windswell building some.
Sun AM (6/15) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Windswell holding.
Mon AM (6/16) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 20 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding.

Sierra Hikers Temperature Forecast (Intersection of the Pacific Crest Trail and Tioga Pass Road at 8,700 ft): Temps 55-60 degs Mon-Wed (6/11) then fading to 45-50 degs through Sat (10/14) building to 55-65 degs Mon-Wed (6/18).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday (6/9) a trough was pushing east off Patagonia being fed by 140 kt winds offering decent support for gale development targeting mainly South America. But back to the west the jet was heavily split with the southern branch running east down on the 65S latitude under New Zealand continuing east over the Central South Pacific offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the split flow is to build over the entire South Pacific with winds getting weaker down to 90-100 kts offering no support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (6/12) the jet is to be weak with winds generally 100 kts or less tracking zonally (west to east) on the 60S latitude line. A small ridge is to set up under New Zealand on Sat (6/14) tracking east into Sun (6/15) and again weak and southward displaced. And by Mon (6/16) the jet is to be running east way south on the 70S latitude line across the entire South Pacific offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (6/9) swell was fading in Hawaii and starting to hit California originating from a gale that developed south and southeast of New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell is to be tracking northeast originating from a gale that developed while lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Another New Zealand Gale
On Thurs AM (5/29) a gale started developing south of Tasmania with 35-40 kt southwest winds lifting northeast with seas 29 ft at 57.5S 143.25E aimed northeast targeting the Tasman Sea. In the evening a broad fetch of 30-35 kt southwest winds were approaching the southern tip of New Zealand with seas 26-27 ft at 51S 154.75E aimed northeast pushing up into the Southeast Tasman Sea. On Fri AM (5/30) 40-45 kt southwest fetch was impacting Southern New Zealand with 30 ft seas at 49S 162E poised to impact Southern New Zealand. In the evening fetch was reorganizing just south and southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35 kts over abroad area and up to 40-50 kts in pockets with seas 30 ft at 46.25S 176.25E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (5/31) fetch was south and east of New Zealand at 40-45 kts over a broad area aimed northeast with seas 32 ft down at 57.25S 167.75E on the 213 degree path to CA and 28-29 ft over a large area all the way up to 45S 175W aimed well northeast on the 214.7 degree path to CA. In the evening southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 33 ft at 54.25S 176E aimed northeast and extending well northeast at 30 ft up to 44S 177W on the 212.7 degree path to CA. On Sun AM (6/1) southwest fetch was fading from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 51.5S 174W aimed northeast in the 210 degree path to CA. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas fading from 28 ft centered at 49S 168.5W aimed northeast. Residual seas were fading Mon AM (6/2) from 26 ft at 44.5S 160.25W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell slowly fading on Mon (6/9) from 2.1 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (6/10) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 199 degrees

Southern CA: Swell building through the day Mon (6/9) to 1.7 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking Tues (6/10) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell steady Wed (6/11) at 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/12) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals holding on Fri (6/13) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/14) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 214-215 degrees

North CA: Swell building through the day Mon (6/9) to 1.9 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaking Tues (6/10) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell steady Wed (6/11) at 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/12) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals holding on Fri (6/13) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (6/14) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212-213 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale developed Fri AM (6/7) tracking east-northeast over the Southeast Pacific with 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 55.25S 149W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest winds were 50 kts solid over the Southeast Pacific with seas 38 ft at 53.75S 138.75W aimed east-northeast. On Sat AM (6/7) south to southwest fetch was starting to lift solidly northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 37 ft at 50.5S 129.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch was fading from 35-45 kts over a broad area in the far Southeast Pacific with seas fading from 32 ft at 48.75S 121.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (6/8) south fetch was holding at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft over a broad area centered at 43S 120W aimed northeast. In the evening south fetch is to hold at 35-40 kts over the far Southeast Pacific with seas 25-26 ft at 42S 119W aimed north. Fetch to linger into Mon AM (6/9) at 120W at 35-40 kts with seas 25-26 ft at 54.5S 119W in the SCal swell window while also targeting South America well. Beyond fetch and sea to fade while pushing east and east of the Southern CA swell window. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/14) building to 2.3 ft @ 18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/15) to 2.9 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/16) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/17) fading from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/18) fading from 1.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees focused on 189 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (6/14) building to 1.8 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building on Sun (6/15) to 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (6/16) from 2.4 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Tues (6/17) fading from 1.9 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185-190 degrees focused on 187 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

La Nina is Gone
Weak West Anomalies Over the KWGA
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and starting to fade.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected, but never developed more than Modoki status.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but by late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina, it seemed La Nina would not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025, which it did. La Nina was fading fast in the ocean by April 2025 but the effects on the atmosphere will take 3 months to materialize. So for the Summer of 2025 we should be moving from a weak Modoki La Nina pattern atmospherically to a neutral ENSO pattern by July. The PDO also appears to be trending towards neutral after a long and deep run negative. The net result is a trend towards ENSO neutral as Summer progresses. The big question is will a neutral ENSO set up an atmosphere with no momentum, or will the push from La Nina to neutral result in net momentum supportive of storm development. At least for the moment (4/27/25), the southern hemi is incredibly productive for the time of year, suggesting there is good momentum in the atmosphere. We suspect some sort of near 'normal' summertime swell production potential will play out - not negatively influenced ny La Nina but not enhanced by a developing El Nino either. Just totally normal, if such a thing is even possible.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/8) 5 day average winds were strong east over the far East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/9) Today modest west anomalies were retrograding west from the dateline with mostly weak west anomalies east of there. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to continue retrograding west reaching back to the Maritime Continent on 6/12. East anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA from then through 6/17 when weak west anomalies again start pushing east reaching the dateline on 6/18 holding for a few days, then starting to retract west again at the end of the model run on 6/25. The GFS has been consistently more conservative that all the other models.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (6/8) Currently a moderate Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active Phase (wet air) fading fast on day 5 of the model run, but still lingering into day 10 of the model run, then collapsing with a weak Inactive Phase (dry air) developing over the West KWGA on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates effectively the same thing but with the Inactive Phase not developing and instead turning neutral if not slightly Active (wet air) on days 10 and 15 of the model run over the far West Pacific.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/9) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the far West Pacific today. The statistic model has it moving to Africa over the next 2 weeks and very weak in strength. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase stalling in the West Pacific while getting very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/9) This model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) stationary between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA. The forecast has it filling the KWGA while tracking slowly east through 6/24. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 7/4 filling it through the last day of the model run on 7/19 while tracking east. Note - the Active MJO has been stuck and stationary over the entrance to the West Pacific for weeks now per this model.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/8) Today moderate west anomalies were reaching east to the dateline filling the KWGA. No contours were indicated. West anomalies are to hold till 6/9 then quickly retracting west to 150E filling the western half of the KWGA through 6/21. A single weak Inactive Contour is to set up over the KWGA 6/17-6/24. Then weak west anomalies return taking over 70% of the KWGA 6/29 with east anomalies over the dateline through the end of the model run on 7/6.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today neutral to weak west anomalies were filling the KWGA with a weak Active MJO contour indicated. No real change is forecast except the Active MJO contour dissipating on 6/11. Weak west anomalies are to develop more solidly on 6/15 filling the KWGA and holding moving forward. No meaningful MJO signal is indicated until 7/12 when the Active Phase develops filling the KWGA and holding through nearly the end of the model run on 9/1 with west anomalies building to moderate status west of the dateline 7/15-8/24. The dividing line between east and west anomalies is to be 170E from early July onwards. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 7/3 and then moving more aggressively east 7/18 reaching 170E on 8/27 and holding there through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 1 contour. The second contour faded on 6/8. The third is already starting to ease east and is forecast reaching the dateline 7/3 and easing east from there and east of the KWGA. This suggests La Nina is slowly fading in the atmosphere and is to be turning fully neutral by mid-June.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: The array is now fully operational east of 160E.
Today (6/9) in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 175W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 157W. Warm water is on the move and creeping east. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador at 25 meters deep. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific down 150m with pockets at that temp reaching the whole way cross the equatorial thermocline at +1 degs in the East Pacific down 50m. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/2 indicates neutral to slightly cool anomalies were over the upper thermocline (50 meters or higher) but with what appears to be a Kelvin Wave pushing east from the dateline to the East Pacific down 100m undercutting the remnants of that cool pool reaching east to 120W with warm pockets east of there to Ecuador. And very warm anomalies were filling the deep West Pacific offering more potential beyond. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/2) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were weakly positive in the east somewhat stronger positive in the west reaching east to 175W and neutral in between from 2 degrees north and south of the equator. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were north and south of the equator starting at 5N and 5S. Pockets of negative anomalies at -15 cms were straddling north and south of the equator at 130W and holding. It appears the cool pool is gone over the equator. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/2) the cool pool was gone (dissipated on 4/12). Warm anomalies were filling the West Pacific building east on the equator across the Pacific reaching east to 135W with scattered pockets of warm anomalies east of there to Ecuador. No cool anomalies were indicated not have been since 4/20. It looks like a significant Downwelling Kelvin Wave is sweeping east across the equatorial Pacific. La Nina is gone.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/8) The latest images depict neutral to weakly warming water temps were over the bulk of the Equatorial Pacific with a few pockets of slightly cooling water near 120W. Temps appears to be slowly warming over the entire Equatorial Pacific. Warming anomalies were north and south of the equator. But cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching to 10N then dissipating outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system. Warmer anomalies were over the East and West Equatorial Pacific. This looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/8): Temps continued to be neutral across the entire equatorial Pacific except a few weak pockets of cooling between 100W-120W.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling slightly at +0.344 having been up to +0.426 degs (5/29) and had been rising slightly since 4/21 previously falling hard since 4/3 (from from +1.4 degs).
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/9) Today's temps were rising some at -0.287 previously up at -0.173 (6/4) and had been falling 5/8-5/16 from 0.00 but otherwise have been slowly and steadily rising from -0.5 degs since 4/7.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising slightly at 0.0 on 6/4. Previously temps were -0.1 (5/28), -0.2 (5/21), -0.1 degs (5/14), +0.1 (5/17), -0.1 (4/30), 0.0 (4/23), -0.2 (4/16), -0.1 (4/2 & 4/9), +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8).
Monthly Data is -0.16 April, +0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.68 (FMA), -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May.
Forecast (6/9) - Temps to rise to +0.05 degs July fading to -0.2 degs in August and Sept, falling to -0.4 Oct and Nov then rising back to neutral in Jan and Feb. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. It looks like we've moved out of a weak La Nina and now in a neutral pattern and that is to hold through the Winter of '25/26.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are up to down to -0.027 (+0.59 last month). Temps to slowly fall to -0.280 in in Nov, then rising some from there. The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.294 OND then rising some to +0.004 at the end of the model run on JFM. The Statistic model suggests temps falling to -0.282 NDJ rising to -0.155 at the end of the model run. In other words, We are ENSO neutral now and forecast to hold there into Winter 25-26.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/8) the Daily Index was negative at -5.62 and has been toggling around neutral since 5/30, solidly positive 5/23-5/29 (6 days) previous, mostly negative the previous 22 days and mixed 7 days prior, but otherwise steadily positive the previous month.
The 30 day average was rising at +5.12 and has been generally rising the last month and now in ENSO neutral territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +4.62 and on the high side of ENSO neutral.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and -1.32 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index continued rising to -1.45 in Feb 2025, -1.12 in March and -1.18 in April then falling to -1.71 in May. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still barely in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening. That said, we are 2 months into being above -1.2. Maybe there is some hope after all.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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