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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, June 20, 2019 4:44 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.0 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/17 thru Sun 6/23

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Southwest Pacific Swell Hitting HI
Bound for CA Too

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, June 20, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.8 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 15.8 secs from 192 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 50 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 14.3 secs from 226 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 65.3 degs. At Harvest (Buoy 071) primary swell was 4.0 ft @ 10.1 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.3 secs from 207 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.8 secs from 214 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 212 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.4 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 9.3 ft @ 10.0 secs from 321 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was west at 2-6 kts. Water temp 57.9 degs (042) and 56.3 degs (013).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (6/20) in North and Central CA northwest windswell was chest high or so and warbled with small whitecaps coming from the south and mushed. Protected breaks were waist high and textured from south wind and closed out. At Santa Cruz residual New Zealand swell was producing waves at waist high or so and clean but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high on the sets and super clean and lined up but just small. In North Orange Co residual New Zealand swell was producing waves at waist high and weak and heavily textured and soft. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist to chest high on the peaks and clean and lined up with some light texture on top. North San Diego had surf at chest high on the sets and real clean and lined up and somewhat closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and mostly clean. The South Shore was getting the start of small Southwest Pacific swell with waves waist to maybe chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves knee to thigh high and heavily textured from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (6/20) in California New Zealand swell was fading out in California along with the normal summertime north windswell hitting exposed breaks. In Hawaii southerly sideband swell was starting to show originating from a gale that developed while tracking east under New Zealand Tues-Wed (6/12) with 39 ft seas aimed east. Slight more direct but distant swell to eventually reach California. Beyond the models are hinting at a gale developing just southwest of New Zealand lifting northeast Sat-Mon (6/24) with seas building to 46 ft aimed northeast. So there's some hope.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).

Windswell Outlook
On Thurs (6/20) the usual summertime pressure gradient was holding if not forecast to build south some through the day producing 30-35 kt north winds off Cape Mendocino to Pt Arena and reaching south to Pt Reyes later with north winds to 25 kts a bit off the coast down to Morro Bay producing windswell radiating south but with light winds if not an eddy flow (south winds) for Central CA. No east fetch is forecast relative to Hawaii capable of producing easterly windswell. On Fri (6/21) more of the same is forecast with north winds 30-35 kts over all of North CA with an eddy flow south of there over Central CA resulting in decent windswell for all of North and Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast within 750 nmiles of Hawaii with no east windswell forecast. On Sat (6/22) the gradient is to lift north some with north winds 30 kts for the Cape Mendocino area south to Pt Arena producing windswell radiating south. The eddy flow (south winds) is to start rebuilding for Central CA reaching north to Bodega Bay. East fetch relative to Hawaii is to remain suppressed wit no windswell production forecast there. Sunday (6/23) the gradient is to hold limited to Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 30 kts producing modest northwest windswell radiating down into Central CA. An eddy flow is to persist for Central CA. No easterly fetch of 15 kts or grater is forecast east of the Hawaiian Islands.

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (6/20) north winds were 30 kts for Cape Mendocino nearshore waters with light south (eddy flow) winds for Bodega Bay southward down over all of Central CA. Friday (6/21) AM northwest winds to be 30-35 kts for most of North CA and with the eddy flow continuing for all of Central CA. Sat (6/22) north winds to be 25-30 kts over all of North CA and the eddy flow continuing for Central CA. No change on Sunday (6/23). But on Monday (6/24) north winds to weaken and start falling south at 20-25 kts over North CA and building to 15 kts late afternoon for all of Central CA. Tues (6/25) north winds to be 15-20 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 15-20 kts limited to Central CA from Monterey south to Pt Conception. Thurs (6/27) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts early from Pt Arena south to Pt Conception and building to 20-25 kts mid-day.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (6/20) the jetstream was split with the influential southern branch ridging down to 65S and sweeping east from under New Zealand over the Central and Southeast Pacific offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to be holding in the east while winds start building under New Zealand lifting northeast to 59S at 140 kts starting to form a trough and slowly tracking east building to 155 kts late on Sun (6/23) and pushing into the West Pacific into Mon (6/24) offering good support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to quickly pinch off on Tues (6/25) and dissipate no longer offering support for gale development and with the jet again starting to sweep east down at 65S offering nothing. And to the east over the Southeast pacific a strong ridge is to be pushing hard south into Mainland Antarctica actively suppressing gale development there. The same general pattern is to hold into Thurs (6/27) with a strong ridge over the Southeast Pacific and a weak ridge over the Southwest and Central South Pacific offering no support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis  
Residual swell from a gale previously just southeast of New Zealand is fading out in CA (see New Zealand Gale below). Another gale formed south of New Zealand pushing east producing sideband swell radiating northeast that is just starting to show in Hawaii and is radiating northeast towards California (see Southwest Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a broad gale is to develop south of the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/22) producing a broad area of 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 39 ft at 59S 151E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east with southwest winds 45 kts solid with seas to 41 ft at 56.5S 168E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/23) a secondary gale is to form over the same area with southwest winds 45-50 kts over a decent sized area with seas from this new fetch building fast to 41 ft at 56.5S 167.5E aimed northeast. In the evening that fetch is to lift hard northeast with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building to 45 ft at 54.5S 177.5S aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/24) the gale is to rapidly be fading with southwest winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 35 ft at 50S 171W aimed northeast. No additional fetch is forecast after that. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale
On Thurs PM (6/6) a gale started pushing east under New Zealand with 40-45 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 36 ft at 59S 156E aimed east (214 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and not shadowed for both). On Fri AM (6/7) fetch started turning and lifting northeast at 45 kts from the southwest over a broader and solid area producing 39 ft seas at 58S 166E aimed east-northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale was just south-southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a solid area aimed north-northeast with seas 38 ft at 54.5S 172.5E (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 215 degs NCal and not shadowed) aimed northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) the gale was tracking northeast just off the coast of New Zealand with 30-35 kt south winds over a large area aimed north-northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 52S 179.5E aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 212 degs NCal and not shadowed). In the evening the gale pushed north and reconsolidated east of North New Zealand producing 30-35 kt south winds over a solid area with a new core developing at 40+ kts and seas 28 ft at 50S 174W mainly from the original fetch (213 degs Scal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and not shadowed). On Sun AM (6/9) the gale held stationary still producing a small area of 30-35 kts south winds aimed north with seas 24 ft over a small area at 38S 162W aimed northeast (214 degs SCal and shadowed, 211 degs NCal and becoming shadowed by Tahiti) and no longer of interest. The gale faded and fell southeast from there.

Hawaii: Dribbles on Tues (6/18) fading from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

South CA: On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 213-214 degrees

North CA: On Thurs (6/20) swell fading from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (6/21) from 1.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.0-1.5 ft).Swell Direction: 211-216 degrees

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/11) a gale developed due south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 31 ft at 62.5S 170E. In the evening 45 kt west-southwest winds were lifting northeast with seas building to 38 ft at 60.5S 178W free and clear of the Ross Ice Shelf. On Wed AM (6/12) the gale continued east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds solid in coverage and seas 38 ft at 59.5S 163.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30-35 kts over a solid area aimed northeast with 32 ft seas at 57.5S 153.5W aimed east-northeast. On Thurs AM (6/13) the gale continued northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 28 ft at 57S 142.5W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Something to monitor. Small swell is radiating northeast.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (6/20) from 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.3 ft @ 17 secs later (4.0 ft with sets to 5.0 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.3 ft @ 16 secs (3.5-4.0 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Northern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (6/20) building through the day to 1.3 ft @ 20 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (6/21) to 2.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.5 ft with sets to 4.5 ft). Swell holding Sat (6/22) at 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (6/23) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/24) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Monday (6/24) the gradient is to fade while falling south producing north winds at 20-25 kts mainly from the Golden Gate north to Southern Cape Mendocino and falling south and impacting the Central Coast later with smaller junkier local northwest windswell impacting Central CA. No fetch of interest is forecast near Hawaii. On Tuesday (6/25) the gradient is to be displaced south with 15-20 kt north winds over most of North CA and all of Central CA nearshore waters producing no meaningful local north windswell. Winds to be 10 kts or less east of Hawaii offering no windswell production. Wed (6/26) north winds are to be 20 kts limited to Pt Conception up to the south end of Monterey Bay offering no windswell production. No easterly fetch of interest is forecast for Hawaii. Thurs (6/27) high pressure is to start rebuilding at 1028 mbs off North Ca with north winds 20 kts nearshore for all of North and Central CA with raw local windswell starting to build. And the gradient is to continue westward with east with 15 kts extending from CA over Hawaii late afternoon with windswell starting to build for exposed east facing shores of Hawaii.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no significant swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Peaking - El Nino Warming to Hold Thru Winter 19/20

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue , and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/19) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific holding over the Central Pacific but far weaker in the West Pacific/KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning modest easterly over the Central Pacific then turning light to modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (6/20) weak west anomalies were over the entirety of the KWGA and with solid east anomalies over the entirety of the East Pacific. The forecast is for west anomalies holding velocity but steadily retrograding to the west and giving up ground to east anomalies with east anomalies filling the KWGA from it's eastern perimeter to 150W, or about 50% of the Eastern KWGA at the end of the model run on 6/27. Modest west anomalies are to cover the remaining portion of the Western KWGA. There is to be a little window of support for storm development over the next few days, but even that will have to overcome atmospheric momentum already predisposed to support the previous and stronger Inactive Phase of the MJO.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/19) An modest Active MJO pattern was indicated filling the West Pacific today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO Phase is to hold position and strength over the KWGA on day 5 and then slow fading through day 15 and effectively gone at that time. The dynamic model suggests the same pattern but with the Active phase gone at day 10 and with a weak Inactive Phase starting to take root in the far West Pacific at day 15. The 2 models are fairly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/20) The statistical model depicts a weak Active Phase of the MJO over the Maritime Continent, and it is forecast to push east into the West Pacific at day 15 but steadily weakening and at best weak status. The GEFS model suggests the same.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (6/20) This model depicts a modest Active Phase over the MJO over the West and Central Pacific today and is to push east into Central America on 7/7. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to track over the West Pacific 6/30 pushing east up to Central America on 7/30. There's no sign of any Active Phase moving even over the Maritime Continent at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/19) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern in control of the KWGA today but with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. West anomalies are to hold at moderate status from now through the end of the model run on 7/17.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/20) This model depicts a modest Inactive Phase of the MJO all but gone in the East KWGA today with the Active Phase moving into the Western KWGA with weak west anomalies starting to build in the KWGA. The Active Phase and modest westerly anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA from today through the end of the model run on 9/17. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines is in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. The second contour line is to fade on 6/21 but the remaining single remaining contour line is to hold through the end of the model run, contrary to previous runs which suggested it fading on 7/28. But it is to retract from California moving west to 155W at the end of the model run. A secondary but thin low pressure contour is to materialize over the Indian Ocean 8/25 holding through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a tendency towards El Nino was previously in control of the Pacific during the Fall of 2018, but has been steadily fading since then and is to continue a steady decline into September, but not out, with weak signs of some energy building in the Indian Ocean. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/20) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a solid and steady area reaching east to 175W (previously 160E) while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 157W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 142W. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded to 105W last week, but is again pushing into Ecuador today down 3 meters. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline). There was a building +2 deg pocket between 180-110W (Kelvin Wave #4). The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 indicates warm water from Kelvin Wave #3 and #4 filling the equatorial Pacific from 155E at +1 degs reaching east to 110W with a core at +2 degs from 170W-115W (Kelvin Wave #4) developing from WWB #4 that occurred from 5/1-5/26. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to the surface in the east at 105W. A previous stream of warm water flowing into the far West Pacific at 140E was gone. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Positive anomalies have rebuilt lightly over the equatorial Pacific at +0-5 cms between 170W to 120W (Central Pacific) attributable to a WWB #4 that occurred there 5/1-5/26 and a smaller one at 125W (Kelvin Wave #3). From this data it looks like the Kelvin Wave #3 was dissipating in the east and Kelvin Wave #4 was weakly developing under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/19) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies were steady from 20S to 20N on the equator from Ecuador to the dateline. But cooling developed along Peru last week, fading some early this week, but has strengthened some today. And overall previous strong warming over the East Equatorial Pacific was fading to weak to modest strength today. There is some weak indication of a El Nino but nothing strong.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/19): A broad area of cooling is setting up along Peru up to the equator and west to 130W from there suggesting some signs of a La Nina like pattern. This is a significant change from weeks previous.
Hi-res Overview: (6/19) Warmer than normal water was from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north and south of the equator continuing west of there to the dateline. But there is an area of developing cooling along and just off the Peruvian Coast.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/20) Today's temps were falling at -0.377 degs, about on par with the trend 2 weeks previous at -0.508 degs, and that down from a peak of +1.235 on 5/27.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/20) Today temps were steady today at +0.655 today. Temps have been steady the last 2 weeks.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/20) The model indicates temps were +0.75 degs in early June and are falling steadily per the model. The forecast indicates temps down to +0.55 degs July 1 then holding if not rising to +0.65 into October, then fading to +0.50 in Dec and holding into March 2020. A weak El Nino like pattern is to hold into early Fall, and now, through Winter of 2019/20. A multiyear warming event is in progress and looks like it might continue.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.70 degs today, and are to hold in the +0.65 range into October, then fading slightly to +0.60 in Jan 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (6/20): The daily index was negative today at -19.54, negative the last 5 days. The 30 day average was falling at -7.80 today suggesting a building Active MJO. The 90 day average was falling some at -4.76, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/16):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wsVGWPgego0&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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