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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 30, 2018 5:19 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.8 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 7/2 thru Sun 7/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small New Zealand Swell Hitting CA
Weak SPac Swell Pattern to Continue

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Saturday, June 30, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 167 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.2 secs from 168 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6 kts. Water temperature 68.0 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.1 ft @ 15.8 secs from 191 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 16.2 secs from 208 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.6 ft @ 16.1 secs from 221 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 16.0 secs from 198 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 8.3 secs with northwest windswell 6.6 ft @ 8.5 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.1 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/30) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf at chest high and warbled and formless and weak but not chopped. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean but still pretty weak and mushy. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to maybe thigh high and clean but very weak and barely rideable. In Southern California up north surf was waist high and fairly clean but weak and crumbled though lined up with no local wind. In North Orange Co southern hemi swell was producing occasional sets in the waist to chest high range and lined up with pretty textured conditions from south wind. South Orange Country's best breaks were up to shoulder high on the sets and crumbled due to moderate south texture driven by south winds. In North San Diego surf was waist to maybe chest high on the bigger sets and lined up but pretty warbled from south wind. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was still getting Southwest Pacific swell with sets at head high or so and lined up and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/28) small southwest swell was hitting California originating from a gale that developed Wed-Thurs (6/21) southeast of New Zealand lifting northeast with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. This same swell was fading in Hawaii. A weak gale is forecast in the Southeast Pacific on Mon (7/2) with 27 ft seas aimed northeast. And another gale is forecast mid-week under New Zealand with 34 ft seas but all fetch is to be aimed east at best. So there's minimal hope. And windswell is to continue for the next few days for CA and longer a better for Hawaii, possibly enhanced by a tropical system.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (6/30) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Saturday (6/30) the usual summer time pressure gradient was building while lifting north with 30 kt north winds over waters between Cape Mendocino and Pt Arena with a well developed eddy flow (south winds) in control from Bodega Bay southward. Relatively larger windswell is to be building for Central CA with cleaner conditions setting up. More of the same is expected on Sun (7/1) with north winds 30 kts early and the eddy flow well developed for Central CA up to Bodega Bay. Monday (7/2) the gradient is to hold if not strengthen between Cape Mendocino and Pt Arena with north winds there at 35 kts with the eddy flow reaching north to nearly Pt Arena. Windswell holding with decent conditions down into Central CA. By Tues (7/3) the gradient is to be fading through the day with 35 kt north winds dropping to barely 25 kts late still over North CA with the eddy flow continuing but weakening from Bodega Bay southward. Windswell fading through the day in Central CA. See QuikCASTs for details.

Hawaii: On Sat (6/30) no windswell production is forecast. Sunday (7/1) easterly fetch at 15 kts is to start creeping west again from off California but still 1000 nmiles east of Hawaii with no windswell resulting. Monday (7/2) east-to northeast fetch is to build in coverage and velocity extending from CA the whole way again to Hawaii at 15 kts and 20 kts from California to within 600 nmiles of Hawaii. Windswell to start building along east facing shores. On Tues (7/3) a fully developed fetch of 15-20 kt easterly winds is to extend from California west to a point just 50 nmiles north of the Hawaiian Islands and beyond. Good odds for sideband windswell radiating into all the Hawaiian Islands but without the core of the fetch actually impacting the Islands. See QuikCASTs for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Emilia was 800 nmiles south-southwest of San Diego on Sat AM (6/30) with winds 30 kts tracking north-northwest and not generating any swell of interest and fading. At no time has Emilia produced any fetch of interest aimed at either California or Hawaii. Emilia is to slowly fade out, dissipating sometime late Sunday/early Mon (7/2).

The models suggest a far stronger system is to develop 600 nmiles southwest of Cabo on Tues (7/3) tracking northwest. This system is to build more while holding this track and positioned 1500 nmiles east of Hawaii early Fri (7/6) then fading while continuing northwest. Likely no direct swell to result for CA and only long distance swell for Hawaii, assuming it forms at all. Something to monitor.

Tropical Storm Prapiroon was 600 nmiles south of South Korea on Sat AM (6/30) tracking generally north and is forecast to build to minimal typhoon status eventually impacting South Korea before recurving northeast and dissipating. Nothing of interest here.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sat AM (6/30) north winds were 30+ kts over all of North CA but with a developing eddy flow (south winds) over all of Central CA up to Pt Reyes later. Sunday (7/1) north winds to continue at 30-35 kts for North CA down to Pt Arena with an eddy flow south of there to Pt Conception. Monday (7/2) north winds are expected at 35 kts from Pt Arena northward with a weak eddy flow from Pt Arena southward. Tues (7/3) the gradient is to still be in place producing north winds at 35 kts from Pt Arena northward with the weak eddy flow (south winds) south of there, but both are to start collapsing late afternoon. Wednesday (7/4) north winds to be 10 kts early along the North and Central Coast fading to near calm from the west midday as low pressure moves towards the area from the north. Thurs (7/5) light winds area forecast over the state, the building from the north at 15 kts for Pt Conception alter. Friday (7/6) light north winds 10 kts area forecast for North CA but up to 25 kts for Pt Conception all day. Saturday the regular summer gradient returns with north winds 20 kts for all of North and Central CA and 25 kts for Morro Bay down to Pt Conception.

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (6/30) the southern branch of the jetstream was tracking east under the Tasman Sea and New Zealand down at 61S and weak with winds 90 kts then lifting northeast reaching up to a point 600 nmiles east of Northern New Zealand forming a weak trough offering only minimal support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere there. East of there the jetstream started falling/ridging south over the Southeast Pacific reaching down into Antarctica then tracking east offering no support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to track east through later Sun (7/1) positioned over the Southeast Pacific getting progressively weaker and not indicative of supporting gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. But on Mon (7/2) a new trough is to be developing southeast of New Zealand being fed by 120 kts winds pushing north and tracking east into Tues (7/3) offering some support for gale development. The ridge in the east is to hold and a new ridge is to be building west of the aforementioned trough, suppressing gale development potential in those locations. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (7/4) the trough is to still be holding together being fed by 100 kt south winds now positioned in the Southeast Pacific offering some support for gale development then fading on Thurs (7/5) on the eastern edge of the Southern CA swell window. Another trough is forecast building under New Zealand on Wed (7/4) but entirely over the Ross Ice Shelf pushing east and reaching clear of the Ice line on Thurs (7/50 over the deep Central Pacific but only being fed by 100 kts winds and not offering much to support gale formation. Through Sat (7/7) the southern branch of the jet is to be weak and ill formed offering no support for gale development, but not actively suppressing it either. It seems we just need a good push from the MJO to get things going.

Surface Analysis  
On Saturday (6/30) small swell from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand was fading in Hawaii and building in California (see Southwest Pacific Gale below). And a small system developed in the Tasman Sea pushing filtered energy towards Hawaii (see Tasman Sea Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Sun PM (7/1) a small weak gale is to develop in the Central Pacific producing a fetch of 35-40 kt southwest winds resulting in a small area of 26-27 ft seas at 45S 141W. Fetch is to build in coverage Mon AM (7/2) at 35-40 kts from the southwest with seas to 27 ft at 44S 135W aimed east-northeast. Additional 35 kt southwest fetch is forecast in the evening generating a larger area of 20-26 ft seas reaching up to 41S 125W aimed north to northeast. This system is to be fading on Tues AM (7/3) with 26 ft seas fading at 52S 127W aimed northeast. Low odds of meaningful swell resulting targeting California. Better odds for Central America.

 

Southwest Pacific Gale
On Tues PM (6/19) a modestly broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds started developing just south of New Zealand tracking northeast with seas building. On Wed AM (6/20) winds built to 45 kts solid aimed northeast with seas building to 33 ft at 58S 175W 9208 degs CA and shadowed by Tahiti). In the evening fetch was racing east-northeast and fading from 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 54.5S 162W aimed east-northeast (204 degrees and unshadowed in SCal). On Thurs AM (6/21) secondary fetch was fading from 30-35 kts from the northeast with seas fading from 26 ft at 50S 162W. In the evening no fetch or seas of interest are forecast. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Residuals fading on Sat (6/30) from 1.9 ft @ 13 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: On Sat (6/30) swell is to build to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 2.1 ft @ 16 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades on Mon (7/2) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Tues (7/3) at 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: On Sat (6/30) swell builds to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell continues on Sun (7/1) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/2) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

 

Tasman Sea Gale
A gale moved into the Tasman Sea on Sat AM (6/23) with 29 ft seas at 43.5S 150.5E aimed northeast. It tracked east in the evening with 29 ft seas at 47.5S 155.5E and then fell southeast on Sun AM (6/24) with 29 ft seas at 50.5S 165E. Limited energy pushing east of New Zealand on Sun PM (6/24) with seas 25 ft at 50S 170E, then dissipated from there. Limited swell possible for Fiji and Hawaii.

Hawaii: Filtered swell for Hawaii expected to arrive on Sat (6/30) pushing 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell to build on Sun (7/1) pushing 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (7/2) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Also swell from the east side of New Zealand arriving later building to 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). On Tues (7/3) swell up to 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees turning to 195 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

Windswell Forecast
California:
Wednesday (7/4) northwest windswell is to be small with the gradient gone as low pressure pushes south from off the coast of Washington generating a separate fetch of north winds at 25 kts possibly generating some windswell of it's own reaching the North and Central Coast on Thurs (7/5). Thurs (7/6) a weak pressure pattern is to result in no local windswell being produced. Friday (7/6) the gradient is to try and fire up again but limited to Pt Conception producing north winds at 25 kts maybe making something for Southern CA. That gradient is to build in size on Sat (7/7) with 20 kts north winds up too Cape Mendocino with the core still over Pt Conception at 25 kts. Windswell likely limited to Central and Southern CA.

Hawaii: Wednesday (7/4) the fetch is to be fading in coverage limited to the area within 900 nmiles east of the Islands at 15-20 kts from the east-northeast pushing into the Islands resulting in more but limited east windswell. Thurs (7/5) east fetch is to be fading and sinking in coverage with odds for windswell production fading out. But theoretically a tropical system is to be tracking towards Hawaii from 1500 nmiles out interacting with high pressure north of Hawaii generating a fetch of 15 kt east winds all the way into Hawaii possibly producing more local east windswell. More of the same on Fri (7/6) with the topical system 1300 nmiles east-north east of Hawaii and then 100 nmiles east-northeast of Hawaii on Sat (7/7).

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is to be well south of the Tasman Sea on Mon PM (7/2) producing 45 kt west winds and seas building from 35 ft at 58S 158E aimed east. The gale is to track east on Tues AM (7/3) with a solid area of 40 kt west winds and 34 ft seas on the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf at 60S 167E aimed east. The fetch is to hold at 40 kts in the evening with seas 35 ft at 60S 170E of due south of New Zealand just off the edge of Antarctic Ice. Fetch is to be fading Wed AM (7/4) from barely 40 kts from the west and seas fading from 31 ft at 61S 177E. Something to monitor.

More details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Equatorial Warm Pool Builds - ESPI Nearing Neutral

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in early June, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Fri (6/29) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific but weakening starting south of Hawaii and light easterly over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were neutral from the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii then weak westerly from there to the dateline, then neutral over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/30) Moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA from the dateline west. The forecast suggests moderate east anomalies are to hold through 7/2 then start tracking east and out of the KWGA by 7/4 with weak west anomalies starting to fill the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/7. In short, an Inactive/Dry MJO signal looks to be tracking east with an Active/Wet signal starting to build in the KWGA 5 days out.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/29) A modest Inactive/Dry MJO signal was filling the KWGA. The statistical model depicts the Inactive/Dry MJO signal is to slowly push east while fading and gone at day 6 of the model run with a weak Active signal holding in the Indian Ocean through day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. The models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (6/30) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was weak over the West Indian Ocean and is to fade while tracking steadily east for the next 15 days, reaching the East Maritime Continent 15 days out. The GEFS model depicts the Active Phase tracking east then retrograding back to the Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model: (6/30) This model depicts an Inactive/Dry MJO signal was over the Central Pacific. It is to track east steadily reaching Central America 7/20. A weak version of the Active/Wet Phase is to develop in the West Pacific 7/8 easing east to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/9. A neutral pattern is to follow in the West Pacific on 7/28 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 8/9.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/26) This model has not updated. East anomalies are to hold over the the western half of KWGA through 7/1 then start quickly dissipating and gone on 7/5. But by July 6 no east anomalies are forecast in the KWGA with west anomalies building and filling the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/24 with a strong burst 7/3-7/11 in the core of the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/30) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with a neutral wind pattern in control other than easterly anomalies in the far west KWGA reaching east to 150E. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 8/9 but with west anomalies building strong for a few days centered at 175E on 7/5 even though the Inactive Phase is to be in control, likely driven by a Rossby Wave. Westerly anomalies to continue thereafter though steadily weakening into 7/24. The Active Phase is to start building 8/8 and strong, holding through 9/15 with west anomalies building solid in the KWGA and strong 8/17-9/10 indicative of a Westerly Wind Burst (WWB). The Inactive Phase is to start building on 9/12-9/27 but with west anomalies holding in the KWGA, just weaker than previously. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and forecast to hold if not ease east to 135W on 7/21 and 125W at the end of the model run and building from 2 contour lines to 3 solidly starting 7/7 and holding thereafter. This is good news for the coming Fall-Winter season. The high pressure bias is limited to an area south of California and shrinking at the end of the model run and moving inland over California and then gone by 9/25. The La Nina bias is gone. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled and should fully reach that state 3 months after the start of the transition or by 8/8 (low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA starting on 5/8) in a more favorable configuration to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/30) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line is starting to move east again, to 148W today. It was stationary on the dateline last winter, then started moving east on 5/15 to 165W, then to 160W on 5/22 then to 154W on 6/19 and to 150W on 6/24 from the surface to 75 meters deep. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 115 meters deep at 140W and 75 meters deep at 120W rising to 25 meters into Ecuador. Anomaly wise in the East Pacific, warm waters from a Kelvin Wave are focused in the East Pacific at depth. Warm anomalies at +1.0 deg C were moving east from the far West Pacific and building at 135W and points east of there at +3.0 degs down 100 meters pushing and reaching east past the Galapagos. These waters are breaching the surface from 135W and points east of there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 depicts a large Kelvin Wave starting at 145W building to +4.5 degs extending unbroken to the east to Ecuador and breaching the surface between 100W-145W. No residual cool water from La Nina are indicated. And more warm water was pushing east from 140E reaching over the dateline and joining the existing Kelvin Wave. In short, a river of warm water was spilling east from the Maritime Continent into the Pacific. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) Positive anomalies were solid from the West Equatorial Pacific at +5 cms reaching from the Maritime Continent north of New Guinea then east to the Ecuador with no breaks with anomalies in pockets at +5-10 cms. No negative anomalies were indicated. The La Nina cool pool is gone.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (6/29) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate a building area of cool anomalies along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile as compared to days past. But of more significance was a building area of warm water erupting on the oceans surface on the equator from the Galapagos west to 160W, strongest at 100W. This area was fully coherent and almost completely filling the equator from 90W to the dateline 3 degs north and south of the equator. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area south of Mexico and building in coherency out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were south of the equator between 115W-170W and south of 4S and all but gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/29): Pockets of warming were scattered along the equator from Ecuador to the dateline and building some compared to the last report in 2 pockets over the Galapagos and at 100W. A couple of pockets of cooling were interspersed but weakening as compared to days past. Neutral temps were off the Peruvian coast.
Hi-res Overview: (6/29) An area of cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Otherwise warm water was building on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 4S up to 20N and building in coherence. The only cool water was in the fading remnant pocket from La Nina limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 110W-165W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/30) Today's temps were steady at -0.845, down from -0.428 on 6/7, up from -0.819 on 5/22, and that down from a recent peak rising to +0.459 on 5/13. This is part of a larger rising trend that started 4/10 indicative of the collapse of La Nina. Overall temps had been steadily marching upwards since late December.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/30) Today temps were steady today at +0.423 up from +0.344 on 6/15. It appears the trend is continuing to move warmer, the first time in over a year. Previously temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (6/30) The forecast depicts temps bottomed out at -0.75 in Nov 2017 and generally held through February, then started slowly rising since, up to -0.5 in mid-March and neutral in June. The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward with temps pushing up to +0.45 degs on July 1 and rising in early Oct to +1.25 degs and to +1.55 degs in Nov then slowly fading from there but still above the +1.0 range into March 2019. This suggests La Nina is gone and that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Summer and Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-June Plume depicts temps at +0.3 degs in late June and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in January holding there.
See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the low end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (negative is good, positive bad) (6/30): The daily index was rising today at 5.90. The 30 day average was falling today at -6.27 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was falling some at -0.12, the first time it has been negative in a year suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (6/30) Today the index was rising slightly at -0.20, the highest it's been in a year. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: April 2017=+0.53, May=+0.29, June=+0.21, July= -0.50, Aug= -0.62, Sept = -0.25, Oct= -0.61, Nov = -0.45, Dec= -0.13, Jan 2018=+0.29, Feb= -0.10, Mar= -0.51, April = -0.85, May =-0.61. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2017 = +0.77, Feb = +0.70, Mar = +0.74, April=+1.12, May=+0.88, June=+0.79, July=+0.10, Aug=+0.09, Sept = +0.32, Oct=+0.05, Nov = +0.15, Dec = +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar = -0.05. No negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

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