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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, July 2, 2020 12:12 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.2 - California & 2.4 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 6/29 thru Sun 7/5

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Fading in CA
Swell #3S Poised Right Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, July 2, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 16.7 secs from 181 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 8.0 secs from 42 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 15.2 secs from 194 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-6 kts. Water temperature 67.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.1 ft @ 9.9 secs from 316 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 16.3 secs from 205 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.6 ft @ 15.6 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 15.1 secs from 206 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 7.8 ft @ 9.8 secs from 317 degrees with southern hemi swell 2.6 ft @ 15.4 secs from 211 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southwest at 12-14 kts. Water temp 53.1 degs (013), 59.4 degs (SF Bar) and 56.1 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (7/2) in North and Central CA locally generated north windswell was producing waves at chest high and warbled and crumbled with south wind generating local lump. Protected breaks were waist to chest high with clean surface conditions but with some underlying lump in the water. At Santa Cruz southern hemi swell was producing waves at up to head high on the sets and lined up and clean but a little funky. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean but soft. Central Orange County had waves at chest high on the sets coming from the south and lined up with some light texture coming from the south. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at 1 ft overhead and clean and lined up and with decent form. North San Diego had waves at chest to head high and lined up and clean but bordering on closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting southern hemi swell with waves waist to chest high on the sets and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high with east-northeast trade winds pretty light with moderately textured conditions early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (7/2) swell was fading in California generated by a gale that formed under New Zealand tracking east Sun-Mon (6/22) producing 39 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell was starting to hit Hawaii from another weak gale that formed southeast of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (6/25) producing up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. And the remnants of that gale redeveloped in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific on Fri-Sat (6/27) producing up to 47 ft seas aimed north. Swell from that system is pushing north towards California. But beyond virtually no swell producing fetch is forecast for the next week.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday (7/2) no swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (7/2) the usual summer time pressure gradient was limited to Pt Arena northward producing north winds at 20-25 kts early fading to 20+ kts later with a weak eddy flow (south winds) from Pt Reyes southward. Fri (7/3) north winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA early with light winds for Central CA and building to 15-20 kts for most of North and Central CA in the afternoon. On Sat (6/27) north winds to be 20 kts early for all of North and Central CA holding all day if not build some later. On Sun (7/5) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts for North CA and Central CA building to 25+ kts for all of North and Central CA in the afternoon. On Mon (6/29) north winds are to be 25 kts over all of North and Central CA early and holding all day. No change on Tues (7/7) with north winds 20-25 kts all day north of Pt Conception. On Wed (7/8) north winds are to be 20 kts early for all of North and Central CA fading to 15 kts later. On Thurs (7/9) north winds to be 15 kts early for North and Central CA fading to 10-15 kts later.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 12,500 ft or higher for the week.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (7/2) the jetstream was well split over the width of the South Pacific with the southern branch weak with winds 90 kts or less but forming a weak trough over the Central South Pacific reaching north to 59S offering no real support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours no real change is forecast with that trough lifting north to 50S at 140W but not offering any support for gale development because winds in it are to fade to 70 kts. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (7/6) more of the same is forecast with an exceedingly weak jetstream flow offering no support for gale development. Late on Tues (7/7) a weak ridge is to start building and pushing south over the Central South Pacific suppressing support for gale development there. On Wed (7/8) there are some indications of wind speeds starting to build in the southern branch of the jet under New Zealand to 90 kts and lifting slightly northeast some up to 59S, perhaps indicating the development of a weak trough there, but nothing more. .

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (7/2) swell was fading in California from a stronger gale that formed under New Zealand aimed better to the northeast (see Stronger New Zealand Gale below). Swell from another gale that tracked under New Zealand was hitting Hawaii (see Weak New Zealand gale below). And another swell was pushing north from a gale that formed in the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

Stronger New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Sat PM (6/20) producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas building. On Sun AM (6/21) a solid fetch of 40 kt west-southwest winds were building tracking east with seas building from 33 ft at 57S 178.5E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch tracked northeast building to 45-50 kts with seas building to 37 ft at 56S 176.5W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/22) the gale was lifting northeast with fetch fading at 40-45 kts from the southwest and seas 40 ft at 53S 161W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts with seas fading from 33 ft at 49.5S 152.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated after that.

Southern CA: Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/2) dropping from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.5 ft) early. Residuals on Fri (7/3) fading from 2.3 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Swell fading slowly on Thurs (7/2) dropping from 2.3 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.5 ft) early. Residuals on Fri (7/3) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
Another gale started developing under New Zealand on Wed AM (6/24) producing 35+ kt southwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 57S 179.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds held in coverage building to 40 kts but aimed well to the north with seas 30 ft at 52.5S 167.5W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (6/25) the fetch held while tracking east at 35-45 kts aimed north with 30 ft seas at 52S 153.5W aimed north to northeast. In the evening the gale faded while falling southeast with 40 kt south winds and seas 30 ft at 53S 145W aimed north. After that this system dissipated.

Oahu: Swell peaking on Thurs (7/2) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (7/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Swell for California from this gale is to be overwhelmed by swell from the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below)

 

Southeast Pacific Gale (Swell #3S - SCal)
On Fri PM (6/26) another gale formed in the upper reaches of the Southeast Pacific producing 50-55 kt south winds with seas building from 37 ft at 42S 137.5W aimed north. On Sat AM (6/27) south winds built in coverage at 50 kts solid aimed due north with 47 ft seas over a small area at 40.5S 134.5W aimed north. Fetch faded in the evening from 35-40 kts from the south with seas fading from 31 ft at 37S 126W aimed north. The gale dissipated from there.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs late afternoon (7/2) building to 1.3 ft @ 21 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (7/3) pushing 3.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell is to peak on Sat (7/4) early at 4.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (7.0 ft with sets near 9 ft). Swell fading through the day Sun (7/5) from 3.8 ft @ 15 secs early (5.5-6.0 ft with sets to 7.0 ft) Swell fading Mon (7/6) from 3.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (7/7) fading from 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (7/8) fading from 2.3 ft @ 13 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs late afternoon (7/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 23 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building Fri (7/3) pushing 2.5 ft @ 19 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell is to peak later Sat (7/4) at 3.1 ft @ 17 secs (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell holding early Sun (7/5) at 3.3 ft @ 16 secs (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (7/6) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (7/7) fading from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Development Remains Stalled - But Likely to Rebuild

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool had collapsed with warm water starting to build on the equator.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. Given all that, for 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the end of 2020 if not longer.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/1) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then solid from the east over the Dateline and the whole of the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial holding over the Central Pacific then turning light easterly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (7/2) modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast calls for east anomalies building in coherence and strength through the coming week filling the KWGA and building to strong status at the end of the model run on 7/9. Interestingly, east anomalies were previously forecast building over the East Pacific but are not forecast not to materialize, with instead modest west anomalies setting up from 7/4 onward.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (7/1) A weak/light Inactive MJO pattern was filling the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern is to hold on days 5 and 10 if not building slightly, then gone and neutral over the KWGA on day 15. The dynamic model indicates a moderate Inactive Phase is to set up on day 5 of the model run and holding on days 10 and 15 effectively filling the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (7/2) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over North Africa today and is to slowly ease east and weaken and all but gone over the Maritime Continent at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase stalled and weak over North Africa today and slowly easing east to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/29) This model depicts a weak Inactive Phase over the Central Pacific today and tracking east pushing into Central America on 7/9. A weak and incoherent Active MJO is forecast developing over the far West Pacific 7/9 pushing slowly east and moving into Central America and 7/29 continuing through the end of the model run on 8/8.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/1) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal over the KWGA today with east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates a weak Inactive MJO signal 7/5-7/15 with modest to moderate east anomalies in control over the KWGA and then filling the entirety of the Pacific by 7/9 at moderate strength. East anomalies are to hold filling the KWGA and the entire Pacific 7/20 onward through the end of the model run on 7/29 focused on the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/2 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO tracking over the KWGA today with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast depicts the Inactive MJO is to hold while very slowly easing east through 8/3 with modest east anomalies building in coverage starting 7/10 and filling the entirety of the equatorial Pacific Ocean. An Active MJO is forecast developing in the far Indian Ocean starting 7/20 pushing into the KWGA a few days later and then filling it by 8/4 and holding through the end of the model run on 9/29 producing westerly anomalies but never reaching east of 165E filling only half of the KWGA and only of modest strength. Moderate east anomalies are to prevail from 170E and points east of there to Ecuador through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias was in control over the dateline today and is to build steadily in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 8/4. A single contour low pressure bias is to appear over the Indian Ocean starting 8/6 building in coverage through the end of the model run. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean are migrating east today into the Pacific are to set up on the dateline and points east of there by 7/10 and continuing if not building there for the foreseeable future fueled by the building high pressure bias contour. Based on this model it appears a clear transition to La Nina is starting today and is to become entrenched by mid-July.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/2) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 163E. The 29 deg isotherm was steady at 173W. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 158W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing east to 105W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies 0-1 deg C were isolated to the West Pacific pushing east to 140W with a finger to 123W, moving east from 150W on 6/17. There were some weak warm anomalies east of there. Cool anomalies were upwelling to the surface from a rapidly collapsing subsurface pocket of cool water -2 degs 150 meters deep from 180W reaching east to Ecuador. It is likely poised to continue upwelling to the surface over the coming weeks though continues to lose some of it's intensity today. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/27 indicates the cool water at depth erupting in the east to the surface between 85W-150W at -4 degs C. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/27) Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were over the equatorial Pacific between Ecuador and 140W and holding coverage, with neutral anomalies pushing east to 170W suggestive of a cool subsurface pool below the equator was loosing coverage. Negative anomalies were along and down the coast of Peru and up the coast of Central America to mainland Mexico. Positive anomalies at +5 cms were effectively gone over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific and along Peru and Central America.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (7/1) The latest images indicate cold water was holding over the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and to the dateline, looking like the start of a La Nina pattern. Warm anomalies were gone off the coast of Chile up into Peru turning decidedly cooler and appearing to be feeding the cool stream. Warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable but not building but holding steady in coverage and intensity.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/1): Pockets of generally weak warming are now in place starting off Ecuador pushing west on the equator off Ecuador and out over the Galapagos out to 140W. The short term trend is now looking like a fading La Nina pattern that was previously building. But we suspect that is short lived with a return to a development of La Nina starting a week out.
Hi-res Overview: (6/29) A stream of cool water was entrenched along the coast of Peru lifting northwest to the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and holding in coverage. Warmer than normal temps were stable north of the equator with cooler than normal water building on and south of the equator. Overall the data suggests a stable La Nina like pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/2) Today's temps were steady down at -1.294 after previously down at -1.511 on 6/16 and have been fading steadily since March 26. Overall the trend is fading from a warmer range near +0.6 degs between 2/25-3/26.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(7/20) Temps were steadily at -0.000 today and the past 3 days after bottoming out at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend is steady if not warming after previous being on a downward trajectory April and May. Temps were in the +0.3 degree range in Feb., and up to the +0.5-+0.6 degree range 3/12-4/8.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (7/2) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range 1/1/2020 through 4/1/2020 then started falling hard down to -0.20 in late-May and held through late June. The forecast depicts temps restarting a precipitous fall, down to -0.75 in late July, then beginning a more gradual downward trajectory reaching down to -0.90 in early Sept holding there into early Dec, then starting to rebound and near neutral in March 2021. According to this model sea surface temps should be falling strongly moving towards La Nina as Summer develops. All objective evidence indicates this is in-fact occurring.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 19, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.35 degs, and are to hold in that range into November then rising some to -0.1 by Feb 2021. The low outliers are the dynamic models (NCEP CFS, NASA GMAO and the COLA CCSM4) all suggesting solid La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (7/2): The daily index was positive today at 14.77. The 30 day average was rising to -8.55. The 90 day average was rising to -1.89, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): April 2020 -0.62, March -0.11, Feb +0.69, Jan +0.42, Dec 2019 +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (6/21):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a2nKlodYDOI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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