Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.4 secs from 164 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.4 ft @ 6.6 secs from 75 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 6.3 secs from 42 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 15.3 secs from 192 degrees. Wind southeast at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 66.7 degs, 53.1 (Harvest 071), 68.5 (Topanga 103), 65.5 (Long Beach 215), 72.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 72.1 (Del Mar 153), 70.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.1 ft @ 15.8 secs from 193 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.1 ft @ 6.6 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.0 ft @ 15.0 secs from 198 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.1 ft @ 15.6 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.0 ft @ 15.6 secs from 185 degrees. Water temperature was 67.1 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 16.7 secs with southern hemi swell 3.0 ft @ 16.0 secs from 188 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and WNW 9-10 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and WNW at 8 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.7 (San Francisco 46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 55.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 55.8 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/6) in North and Central CA waves were thigh high and warbled and mushed with light northwest winds early. Protected breaks were thigh to near waist high and weakly lined up and soft but mostly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and lined up and clean but weird for too low a tide early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and clean early but with irregular form. Central Orange County had waves at head high or so on the sets and lined up but warbled if not trashed by strong south wind. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with decent form but warbled and irregular from brisk south wind. North San Diego had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up if not closed out and pretty warbled from south wind. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at waist high and weakly lined up and pretty soft and clean. The East Shore was flat to thigh high and warbled from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/6) swell was California originating from a gale that formed Tues-Thurs (6/27) producing up to 30 ft seas aimed east-northeast targeting mainly South America with modest swell tracking towards the mainland. A weak gale developed south of New Zealand Fri (7/5) producing 27 ft seas aimed northeast and is forecast to be followed Sun-Tues (7/9) by a stronger and broader system east of New Zealand over the same area with up to 45 ft seas aimed northeast. We'll see what actually develops as the model have steadily downgraded this system with each model run. Nothing else to follow.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/6) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (7/7) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to mostly 15 kts for all of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA . Junky short period windswell at best developing.
Mon AM (7/8) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell weak and fading some.
Tues AM (7/9) northwest winds fade at mostly 10 kts for North and Central CA early but 15 kts for Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to build some at 15 kts for North and Central CA. Minimal junky windswell expected.
Wed AM (7/10) northwest winds build to 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon a new gradient develops with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
Thurs AM (7/11) the gradient builds some with northwest winds 30 kts for all of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient lifts north at 30+ kts limited to Cape Mendocino with 20-25 kts northwest winds over the remainder of North CA and 10-15 kts northwest winds over Central CA. Windswell building.
Fri AM (7/12) northwest winds to be30 kts for Cape Mendocino and 20 kts for the rest of North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading.
Sat AM (7/13) northwest winds hold at 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection generally 65-70 degrees into Fri (7/12) then fading to 60-65 degrees after that through the end of the model run on Mon (7/15).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (7/6) the jet was lifting northeast under New Zealand forming a trough pushing up along the southeast coast there being fed by 150 kt winds offering building support for gale formation. But east of there the jet was falling southeast forming a ridge and pushing over Antarctic Ice offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to build just east of New Zealand Sun (7/7) with winds to 160 kts continuing to fuel gale formation while pushing east into Mon (7/8) then starting to weaken but still offering some degree of support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (7/9) that trough is to weaken and fade out no longer supporting gale formation. And instead a ridge is to build under New Zealand sweeping east into Thurs (7/11) actively suppressing support for gale formation. The ridge is to hold if not build some into Sat (7/13) offering nothing.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/6) swell from a gale that developed over the Southeastern Pacific is impacting the California Coast (see Main Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a primer gale has formed and the main gale is to start developing east of New Zealand (see Primer and New Zealand Gale below).

Primer Gale
A primer gale is developed on Thurs PM (7/4) southwest of New Zealand with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 57.25S 150.5E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (7/5) the gale moved south of New Zealand with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 54S 167.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts over a small area southeast of New Zealand aimed northeast with seas fading from 25 ft at 52S 173E aimed northeast. This system served mainly rough up the oceans surface to enable the stronger gale to follow to get traction.

New Zealand Gale
On Sat AM (7/6) a broader gale started developing southwest of the southern tip of New Zealand with 35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 55S 169E aimed northeast and unshadowed by New Zealand relative to both North and Southern CA but shadowed to Hawaii. In the evening a broad fetch of southwest winds are to be free and clear of New Zealand and building aimed northeast at 30-35 kts over a moderate area and seas building fast from 26 ft at 47S 175E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/7) the gale is to push hard northeast while building with 35-40 kt southwest winds growing and seas 27 ft at 47S 173W aimed northeast. Fetch is to be building in earnest in the evening at 40 kts over a solid area with seas building to 29 ft over a broad area at 44.5S 169W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/8) southwest fetch finally get coherent pushing northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft at 47S 167W aimed northeast. Fetch builds in the evening at 45-55 kts aimed almost due north with seas 38 ft at 51.75S 160.75W aimed northeast. The gale starts fading Tues AM (7/9) with south winds fading from 40-45 kts and seas fading from 38 ft at 48S 155W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 47S 144W aimed northeast. Something worth monitoring.

Main Southeast Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (6/25) the main gale started to develop off the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf with a broad area of 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building from 26 ft at 62S 175.75W aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts while tracking east with seas building from 31 ft at 60S 160.00W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (6/26) a broad fetch of 40 kt southwest winds were filling the deep South Central Pacific with 29-30 ft seas over a broad area at 59S 152W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was lifting northeast in the evening while fading from 30-35 kts with seas 28-29 ft over a broad area centered at 57.75S 135W aimed northeast. Residual fetch was fading Thurs AM (6/27) from 30-35 kts over the deep Southeast Pacific lifting northeast with seas fading from 25-27 ft roughly centered at 56.5S 130W aimed northeast. Swell is tracking northeast.

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Sat (7/6) at 2.7 ft @ 15-16 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (7/7) from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Mon (7/8) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 187 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Sat (7/6) at 2.5 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (7/7) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Mon (7/8) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 moving to 183 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

La Nina Weakly Developing - NINO3.4 Temps Fall to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/6) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at modest status filling the KWGA into 7/9 then moving east of the KWGA while modest west anomalies build over the KWGA 7/10-7/13. East anomalies return 7/14 at moderate strength mostly holding through the end of the model run filling the KWGA through 7/22.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/5) Currently a neutral MJO pattern was in control of the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/6) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the East Indian Ocean and very weak. It is to move to the West Pacific 2 weeks out at very weak status. The dynamic model depicts about the same thing but with it moving only to the far West Pacific at very weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/6) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was over the KWGA. It is to track east through 7/21 and then be east of the KWGA with the Inactive Phase (dry air) developing over the KWGA 7/31 and building to moderate if not strong strength 8/10 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/15 filling the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/5) Today a neutral MJO was over the KWGA with moderate east anomalies indicated. The forecast suggests weak west anomalies are to push east through the KWGA 7/4-7/16 then fading with east anomalies building to near strong status 7/16 and a neutral MJO taking over through the end of the model run on 7/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/6) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive MJO was filling the KWGA with mostly modest east anomalies in control. This pattern to hold into 7/8 then weak west anomalies are to develop with a weak Active signal developing 7/11-7/23. Another moderate Inactive Phase is forecast 7/22-8/15 with moderate east anomalies in control. And then a solid Active Phase forecast starting 8/8 through the end of the model run on 10/3 with west anomalies limited to the western half of the KWGA. Starting 7/22 east anomalies are forecast east of the dateline steadily building and reaching over the dateline and steadily building to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/3. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated by 7/10. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is slowly building, forecast building quickly east on 7/30 filling the bulk of the KWGA and east to California if not the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm has retrograded west from 180W to 177E today. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 163W to 166W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but is now retrograding west to 142W. The 24 degree isotherm extends east to 95W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now at +1 degs filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline. Interesting but likely just a model anomaly due to no valid sensors in that area. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs was centered subsurface at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/22 is blank but previously indicated cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 130W but not growing in coverage. And subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not so much from 160W and points west of there. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/22) No update - On 6/17 Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W with a broad pocket at -15 cms near 115W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/17) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 137W, decreasing in coverage from 150W in mid-May now limited from 130W and points east of there. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were from 140W all over the West Pacific. A clear La Nina pattern is in play. But warm anomalies are building over the dateline since early May at +0.5 degs and if anything growing in coverage. Interesting.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/5) The latest images depict what appears to be a La Nina cool pool fading significantly on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/5): A thin stream of warming waters were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to 100W with 2 small pockets of cooling from 105-135W.
Hi-res Overview: (7/2) A thin stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 140W but not as strongly as a week ago. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/6) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at -0.231 from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/6) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at +0.066. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 but crept back up into positive territory starting 6/19. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST rose slightly to +0.4 (week of 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.13 March, +0.79 April, +0.32 May.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +0.75 MAM, +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and 0.0 mid June.
Forecast (7/6) - Temps to fall to -0.15 mid-July, -0.8 late Aug and -1.50 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to -1.40 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.116 degs today and is the 1st month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.281 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.653 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.752 run) in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.565 in Nov (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/6) the Daily Index was positive at 1.78 today and has been solidly positive the previous 11 days. The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was rising at -2.03. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising at -1.36. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 April, -3.00 May, -3.02 in June). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.