Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 16.7 secs from 208 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.5 ft @ 7.6 secs from 76 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 3.9 ft @ 6.4 secs from 38 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 14.4 secs from 221 degrees. Wind east at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 68.4 degs, 57.0 (Harvest 071), 67.6 (Topanga 103), 65.1 (Long Beach 215), 70.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 70.7 (Del Mar 153), 68.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.4 ft @ 10.1 secs from 315 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.8 ft @ 8.6 secs from 263 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.0 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.9 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.7 secs from 195 degrees. Water temperature was 68.0 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 9.1 ft @ 10.5 secs with northwest windswell 8.0 ft @ 9.2 secs from 328 degrees. Wind south 6-10kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and S 4-6 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and S at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.3 (San Francisco 46026), 57.6 (SF Bar 142), 55.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 58.5 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (7/13) in North and Central CA waves were waist high with a few chest high peaks coming from the northwest and pretty lined up but also pretty warbled and mushed from light northwest winds and high fog early. Protected breaks were waist to near chest high and lined up and closed out pounding on the bar and mostly clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean and weak and with high fog early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weak and mushed but clean with heavy fog. Central Orange County had waves at waist high on the sets and lined up and a bit closed out and soft but fairly clean with just a little intermixed warble early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to maybe chest high on the rare sets and lined up with decent form and clean but soft early. North San Diego had sets at waist to chest high on the rare sets and lined up with decent form and fairly clean with just some intermixed warble. Oahu's North Shore was flat to thigh high and mushed and fairly clean early. The South Shore was starting to get a few sets with waves up to shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean but very rare. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell at waist to near chest high and chopped from moderate east-northeasterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (7/13) no swell of interest was hitting California while Hawaii was starting to see the first hints of swell originating from a weak gale that developed south of New Zealand Fri-Sat (7/6) producing 26-27 ft seas aimed northeast. That gale was followed Sun-Tues (7/9) by a stronger and broader system east of New Zealand producing 35-39 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is tracking towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. Beyond no meaningful swell producing fetch is forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/13) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sun AM (7/14) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and southwest 5 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 15-20 kts off Cape Mendocino and southwest 5-10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Mon AM (7/15) northwest winds to be 20 kts limited to a small area off Cape Mendocino early and calm and variable for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for a small area mainly off South Oregon with west to northwest winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Tues AM (7/16) north winds to be 20 kts limited to a small area north of Cape Mendocino with south winds 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon even that limited fetch off Cape Mendocino is to die with northwest winds 5-10 kts for most of the Golden State. No windswell forecast.
Wed AM (7/17) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast but northwest winds to be building to 15 kts from Carmel southward. No windswell expected.
Thurs AM (7/18) northwest winds to be 10+ ks for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central CA but only hugging the coast. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (7/19) a weak gradient starts building with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Minimal short period junky windswell possible.
Sat AM (7/20) northwest winds build at 20 kts solid for all of North and Central CA early. Windswell building.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection generally 55-60 degrees holding through Thurs (7/18) then temps warm slightly beyond at 65-70 degrees into Mon (7/22).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (7/13) the jet was tracking firmly east and southeast under New Zealand forming a ridge pushing well over Antarctic Ice and sweeping east over the entirety of the South Pacific actively suppressing support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to slow lose energy and lift gently north starting to form a weak trough over the far Southeast Pacific by Mon (7/15) but being fed by only 100 kts winds likely offering no meaningful support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (7/16) a small pocket of wind energy at 130 kts is to be riding up into the developing trough over the Southeast Pacific but fade quickly only to be followed by a second push of wind energy on Fri (7/19) carving the trough out a bit better offering some limited support for gale formation on Sat (7/20) over the Southeast Pacific. But under New Zealand the jet is to be displaced hard south tracking over Antarctica with winds 130 kts forming a solid ridge and actively suppressing support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (7/13) no swell was being generated in the South Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours small swell from a primer gale that passed under New Zealand and served to rough up the oceans surface was tracking northeast (see Primer Gale below). And a stronger gale developed right behind it east of New Zealand lifting well northeast generating larger swell (see New Zealand Gale below).

Primer Gale
A primer gale is developed on Thurs PM (7/4) southwest of New Zealand with 30-35 kts southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 57.25S 150.5E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (7/5) the gale moved south of New Zealand with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 54S 167.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch additional fetch developed southwest of New Zealand at 35+ kts tracking east with seas building to 28 ft at 60.5S 143E aimed northeast. The gale tracked east Sat AM (7/6) with 35 kts southwest winds over a solid area and seas 26 ft at 54S 165E aimed east and northeast. This system served mainly rough up the oceans surface enabling the stronger gale that followed to get traction.

New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (7/6) remnants of the Primer gale started to build just east of the coast of New Zealand at 30-35 kts aimed northeast over a broad area with seas building from 25-26 ft at 47S 175E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/7) the gale was pushing hard northeast with 35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 48S 173W aimed northeast. Fetch was building in earnest in the evening at 40-45 kts over a solid area with seas building to 26-30 ft at 52S 179W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/8) southwest fetch finally got coherent pushing northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft at 49S 172W aimed northeast. Fetch built in the evening at 45-55 kts aimed almost due north with seas 36 ft at 53S 159W aimed northeast building to 39 ft at 52.25S 154.75W late evening with seas from the initial fetch fading from 33 ft at 45S 164W aimed northeast. The gale started fading Tues AM (7/9) with south winds fading from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 34 ft at 50.5S 151.25W aimed northeast. Fetch held in the evening at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 26 ft at 48S 142W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Oahu: Expect primer swell arrival on Fri (7/12) building to 1.2 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0 ft). Primer Swell building through the day Sat (7/13) to 1.9 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). the main swell arrives on Sun (7/14) building to 1.8 ft @ 18 secs midday (3.0-3.5 ft) with primer swell underneath fading from 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0 ft). Mina swell takes over on Mon (7/15) at 2.7 ft @ 16 secs midday (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Tues (7/16) from 2.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Wed (7/17) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (7/18) fading from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5 ft). Low odds of additional residuals on Fri (7/19) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 moving to 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect primer swell arrival on Sun (7/14) at 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Primer swell building some on Mon (7/15) to 1.6 ft @ 17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Primer swell builds some on Tues (7/16) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). And the main swell arrive building to 1.9 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5 ft). Main swell takes over on Wed (7/17) building to 3.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/18) from 2.7 ft @ 16 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft early). Swell fading some on Fri (7/19) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat (7/20) holding at 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/21) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 200 degrees

North CA: Expect primer swell arrival on Sun (7/14) at 1.1 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0 ft). Primer swell building some on Mon (7/15) to 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Primer swell builds some on Tues (7/16) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). And the main swell arrives building to 1.1 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Main swell takes over on Wed (7/17) building to 3.0 ft @ 17 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (7/18) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading some on Fri (7/19) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals fading on Sat (7/20) holding at 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (7/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 200 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

La Nina Weakly Developing - NINO3.4 Temps Fall to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/12) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/13) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding if not building more at strong status filling the KWGA 7/14-7/23 then moving east and east of the KWGA 7/27 while modest west anomalies start moving over the far West KWGA 7/22 reaching the dateline at the end of the model run on 7/28.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/12) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was moving into the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO almost filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run and filling it on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts basically the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/13) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the Central Maritime Continent and weak. It is to move to the Central West Pacific t 2 weeks out at anywhere from very weak to weak status. The dynamic model depicts about the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/13) This model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) was starting to move over the KWGA. It is to track east through 7/28 and then be east of the KWGA with the Inactive Phase (dry air) then moving over the KWGA 8/2 and building to moderate if not strong strength 8/12 and holding through the end of the model run on 8/22 filling the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/12) Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was south of California with a neutral MJO over the KWGA with east anomalies filling most of the KWGA but with west anomalies in the far West KWGA west of 150E. The forecast has this pattern holding into 8/3 with both west and east anomalies building to strong status. West anomalies to fade on 8/3 still limited to the far west KWGA and making zero progress east with the east anomalies locked over the bulk of the KWGA and continuing through the end of the model run on 8/9.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a modest Inactive MJO was all but gone while pushing east of the KWGA with a mix of east and west anomalies developing. A weak Active MJO pattern is to develop 7/15 with weak weak west anomalies filling the KWGA into 7/21. A neutral pattern is forecast after that but with the weak west wind anomaly pattern holding west of 160E. Another weak Active Phase is forecast 8/7-9/5 with west anomalies limited to the western half of the KWGA and east anomalies building from 160E and points east of there. Beyond no MJO signal is forecast and starting 7/19 east anomalies are forecast east of the dateline steadily building and reaching over the dateline and steadily building to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/8. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated by 7/12. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is slowly building, forecast building quickly east on 7/21 filling the bulk of the KWGA and east to California if not the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/13) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm is oscillating near 179E today. The 29 degree isotherm steady at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but is now retrograding west to 153W. The 24 degree isotherm extends east to 105W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now at +1 degs filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline. This is interesting but likely just a model anomaly due to no valid sensors in that area. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs was centered subsurface at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/7 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 120W but not growing in coverage. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not as strong as previous. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/7) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W with one pocket to -10 cms between 100-120W on the equator. This suggests weak warming is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/7) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March then retracting in June but is not rebuilding in coverage with temps currently -0.5 degs from Ecuador to 165W and starting to build in coverage. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5-1.0 degs were west of the dateline over the West Pacific. A clear La Nina pattern is in play.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/10) The latest images depict what appears to be a La Nina cool pool holding thinly on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/10): A thin stream of cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to nearly 160W. La Nina appears to be getting ready to pulse.
Hi-res Overview: (7/12) A thin stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 150W but still pretty weak. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/13) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.304 degrees but had been near 0.0 the previous t few days after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/13) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.016. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 but crept back up into positive territory starting 6/19. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST rose slightly to +0.3 (week of 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.16 June. .
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.22 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July, beating expectations.
Forecast (7/13) - Temps to fall to -0.75 Aug (not believable) and -1.30 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.00 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.116 degs today and is the 1st month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.281 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.653 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.752 run) in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.565 in Nov (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/13) the Daily Index was negative at -2.77 today and has been negative 3 days prior. It was positive the previous 13 days.
The 30 day average was falling from +1.16. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was roughly steady at -1.27. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 April, -3.00 May, -3.02 in June). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.