BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, July 21, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/21) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and fully chopped from northwest wind with whitecaps and mushed and not really rideable.. Protected breaks were waist high or so and uneven and heavily warbled but not whitecapped and foggy with modest northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was waist high on the sets and clean and weakly up with decent form but soft and clear early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weakly lined up and soft with a fair amount of warble in the water from winds just off the coast. Central Orange County had sets at waist to almost chest high and clean and lined up but soft and weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but pretty soft with fog early. North San Diego had sets at chest high and lined up and clean with good form early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore was getting background swell with waves waist high with chest high peaks on occasion with good form and clean but pretty soft. The East Shore was flat and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/21) the last dribbles of swell was fading in California originating from a gale that developed Sun-Tues (7/9) east of New Zealand producing 35-39 ft seas aimed northeast. Beyond another gale formed in the deep South Central Pacific Sun (7/14) tracking east with 29-30 ft seas and held while lifting east-northeast with seas to 28 ft eventually pushing east of the Southern CA swell window on Tues (7/16). Sideband swell is pushing north. And another gale formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed (7/17) with 28 ft seas aimed east mainly targeting only Chile. Nothing else is on the chart beyond.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/21) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection 60-65 degrees holding through Thurs (7/25) then before fading to the 55-60 degree range beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (7/21) the jet was pushing gently pushing south and over Antarctic Ice forming a ridge offering no support for gale formation south and southeast of New Zealand then lifting northeast over the far Southeast Pacific forming a trough being fed by 100 kt winds offering bare minimal support for gale formation there. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to push east of the Southern CA swell window later Mon (7/22) with the weak ridge taking over the South Pacific offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours the ridge is to evaporate on Wed (7/24) but a new ridge is to start developing under New Zealand on Thurs (7/25) pushing into Antarctica on Fri (7/26) then easing some tracking east on the 60S latitude line but winds only 80-90 kts offering nothing.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/21) swell was all but gone in California originating from a gale that develop east of New Zealand lifting well northeast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a small gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific was tracking weakly towards CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (7/6) remnants of the Primer gale started to build just east of the coast of New Zealand at 30-35 kts aimed northeast over a broad area with seas building from 25-26 ft at 47S 175E aimed northeast. On Sun AM (7/7) the gale was pushing hard northeast with 35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 48S 173W aimed northeast. Fetch was building in earnest in the evening at 40-45 kts over a solid area with seas building to 26-30 ft at 52S 179W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/8) southwest fetch finally got coherent pushing northeast at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft at 49S 172W aimed northeast. Fetch built in the evening at 45-55 kts aimed almost due north with seas 36 ft at 53S 159W aimed northeast building to 39 ft at 52.25S 154.75W late evening with seas from the initial fetch fading from 33 ft at 45S 164W aimed northeast. The gale started fading Tues AM (7/9) with south winds fading from 35-40 kts and seas fading from 34 ft at 50.5S 151.25W aimed northeast. Fetch held in the evening at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 26 ft at 48S 142W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Sun (7/21) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 200 degrees

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (7/21) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 209 moving to 200 degrees

South Central Pacific Gale
On Sat PM (7/13) a small gale developed southeast of New Zealand producing 45 kt west winds and seas building from 29 ft over a small area just of Antarctic Ice at 63.75S 177.25W aimed east. On Sun AM (7/14) west-southwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 32 ft at 62S 163.5W aimed east over the Central South Pacific. In the evening 35-40 kt southwest winds were lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific with seas 27 ft at 58.25S 144.75W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (7/15) southwest winds were 35-40 kts with seas 28 ft at 55.75S 131.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch was moving over the eastern edge of the California swell window at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 52.5S 123.75W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas were fading while moving east of the CA swell window beyond. Small south angled swell is possible for California down into Chile.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/23) building to 1.6 ft 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (7/24) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/25) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 moving to 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (7/23) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking on Wed (7/24) at 1.7 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (7/25) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (7/26) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 187 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (7/16) a new gale developed over the deep Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening southwest winds built to 35-45 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 62.25S 135.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (7/17) southwest winds were 35-40 kts right on the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 61.75S 122.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds were barely in the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 61.5S 118W and mostly east of the SCal swell window. By Thurs AM (7/18) 40 kt west winds were east of the CA swell window targeting only Chile and Peru with seas 28-30 ft at 65S 111.5W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Background swell arriving on Fri (7/26) building to 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (7/27) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (7/28) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees

North CA: Background swell building on Sat (7/27) to 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (7/28) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

ENSO Neutral In Control
Forecast Suggests a Weak La Nina Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/20) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/19) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding if not building more at strong status filling the entirety of the KWGA through 7/26 then starting to move mostly east of the KWGA 7/28 while weak west anomalies start moving over the far West KWGA reaching the dateline 7/29-7/30 then fading with moderate east anomalies again taking over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/6.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/21) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm is oscillating at 177E today. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 170W to 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but is now moving west to 160W. The 24 degree isotherm extends east to 100W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now at +1-2 degs filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline. This is interesting but likely just a model anomaly due to no valid sensors in that area. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs was centered subsurface at 150W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/17 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 125W and now growing in coverage. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not as strong as previous. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/17) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W with a broad pocket at -10 cms between 110-125W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/17) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March then retracting in June but is now rebuilding in coverage with temps currently -0.5 degs from Ecuador to 165W and poised for more growth. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5-1.0 degs were west of the dateline over the West Pacific. A clear La Nina pattern is in play.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/20) The latest images depict what appears to be a La Nina cool stream holding thinly on the equator from Ecuador west to 145W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/20): A modest stream of cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to nearly 150W. La Nina appears to be starting to pulse.
Hi-res Overview: (7/20) A thin stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 160W but still pretty weak. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.480 degrees the past few days but had been near +0.0 7/7-7/11 after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/21) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.255 and have been on a dropping trend since 7/16. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and then held at that mark until just recently. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Steady at +0.3 (week of 7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.16 June. .
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.22 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July, beating expectations.
Forecast (7/21) - Temps to fall to -0.60 Aug (not believable) and -1.50 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.25 degs in Nov. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.229 degs today and is the 2nd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.383 in Aug (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.5213 in Oct then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.697 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.315 in Jan.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/21) the Daily Index was negative at -5.11 today and has been negative 11 days prior. It was positive the previous 13 days.
The 30 day average was falling from -2.85. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling at -2.36. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 April, -3.00 May, -3.02 in June). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table