Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 12.2 secs from 175 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.2 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.6 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 8.9 secs from 53 degrees. Water temp 78.4 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 8.8 secs from 41 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.6 secs from 149 degrees. Wind north at 8-12 kts. Water temperature 68.2 degs, 53.8 (Harvest 071), 66.2 (Topanga 103), 61.3 (Long Beach 215), 68.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 70.9 (Del Mar 153), 70.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.0 ft @ 7.5 secs from 314 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.3 ft @ 6.2 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.7 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.9 ft @ 14.8 secs from 189 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.8 ft @ 14.7 secs from 183 degrees. Water temperature was 64.6 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 7.7 secs with northwest windswell 4.4 ft @ 6.5 secs from 315 degrees and southern hemi swell 1.3 ft @ 14.7 secs from 183 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and SW at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 50.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.4 (San Francisco 46026), 58.8 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 58.6 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (7/28) in North and Central CA waves were thigh to maybe waist high and heavily warbled coming from the southwest and pretty much not rideable. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and somewhat lined up and soft and cleanish but with moderate southerly texture on it. it from west wind. At Santa Cruz surf was up to thigh high on rare sets and clean and soft and inconsistent early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were up to waist high on the sets and soft and mushed and somewhat warbled from light northwest wind early. Central Orange County had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up but soft and fairly clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at chest high and lined up with decent form but soft with real clean conditions. North San Diego had sets at waist high and mushed and weak but clean. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean early. The South Shore had a few thigh to waist high sets and soft and clean early. The East Shore was chest to shoulder high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (7/28) minimal background swell was hitting California from a gale that formed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed (7/17) with 28 ft seas aimed east mainly targeting only Chile. On the charts a small local gale is forecast developing southwest of Tahiti later Sun (7/28) with seas to 28 ft aimed north tracking east into Tues (7/30) with seas building to 32 ft over a small area targeting the Olympic Games arena. Beyond there is a suggestions of some sort of gale developing over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (8/3) but only with 24 ft seas aimed aimed northeast. The models remain unstable and wavering as to the exact details. Otherwise no meaningful swell producing weather systems are forecast.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/28) no swell was in the water or being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (7/29) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA mainly south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
Tues AM (7/30) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA early but up to 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10+ kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast.
Wed AM (7/31) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA over a shallow area. No real windswell expected.
Thurs AM (8/1) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts off Cape Mendocino but otherwise 10 kts for the rest of North and Central CA early. More of the same in the afternoon. No windswell of interest forecast.
Fri AM (8/2) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. No real windswell expected.
Sat AM (8/3) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North Ca and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. No change in the afternoon. No real windswell forecast.
Sun AM (8/4) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early. No meaningful windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater for the entire 10 day forecast period. Temps at the intersection 50-55 degrees holding through Tues (7/30) then building to 55-60 degrees through Wed (7/31) building to the 60-65 degree range and even to 70 degrees starting starting Sat (8/3) and holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (7/28) the southern branch of the jet was weak with winds 60-80 kts tracking east between 60-65S and still displaced south mostly over Antarctic Ice across the width of the South Pacific with no troughs indicated offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours no meaningful change is forecast until Tues (7/30) when a weak trough is forecast setting up over the Central South Pacific with winds starting to push northeast but not strong enough to support gale formation. and building on Thurs (8/1) to 140 kts lifting north under New Zealand an. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (8/1) a second trough is to build firmly south of New Zealand with winds lifting north at 170 kts pushing east on Fri (8/2) with winds 160 kts moving to the deep Central South Pacific forming a well defined trough offering good support for gale formation into early Sun (8/4) then fading out. Something to hope for!

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (7/28) swell from a small gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific was weakly limping into CA (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours an extratropical/cutoff gale is to develop south of Tahiti offering potential for swell for the Olympics (see Olympic Gale below).

Olympic Gale
Aa small gale was developing in the Olympic swell window Sun AM (7/28) southwest of Tahiti with winds 40-45 kts over a tiny area and seas building from 27 ft at 27S 162.5W aimed north trying to produce some swell. In the evening south winds to be 50 kts with seas 28 ft at 27.25S 158.75W or 769 nmiles southwest of Tahiti on the 221 degree path. On Mon AM (7/29) the gale is to be falling east-southeast with winds still 50 kts and seas 29 ft at 27.75S 153W or 626 nmiles south of Tahiti on the 198.7 degree path. The gale is to stall in the evening with 50-55 kt south wind and seas 31 ft at 29.5S 153.5W aimed north or 733 nmiles out on the 197.8 deg path. On Tues AM (7/30) the gale is to lift north with winds fading from 40+ kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 27.5S 152W or 595 nmiles out on the 194 degree path. The gale to evaporate after that. Unrefined local swell is to possible result for the Olympic venue.

Tahiti: Rough data suggest swell arrival starting later Mon (7/29) building to 9.8 ft @ 14 secs (13.5 ft). Wind northwest 15+ kts. Swell builds on Tues (7/30) at 11.2 ft @ 13-14 secs mid-AM (15 ft). Wind southwest 20-25 kts all day. Swell peaks at sunrise Wed (7/31) at 11.9 ft @ 14 secs (16-17 ft) then starts fading. Wind southwest 15+ kts fading to 11 kts later. Residuals Thurs AM (8/1) fading from 7.3 ft @ 11 secs (8.0 ft). Wind southeast 10 kts. Swell Direction: 240 moving to 195 degrees. Wind west-southwest 20-25 kts on

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (7/16) a new gale developed over the deep Southeast Pacific with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas building. In the evening southwest winds built to 35-45 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 62.25S 135.25W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (7/17) southwest winds were 35-40 kts right on the east edge of the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 61.75S 122.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds were barely in the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 61.5S 118W and mostly east of the SCal swell window. By Thurs AM (7/18) 40 kt west winds were east of the CA swell window targeting only Chile and Peru with seas 28-30 ft at 65S 111.5W aimed east-northeast. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Sun (7/28) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees

North CA: Dribbles on Sun (7/28) fading from 1.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180-190 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs PM (8/1) a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand with 35 kt southwest winds and seas building to 22 ft at 58S 174E aimed well north and northeast. On Fri AM (8/2) south winds are to be pushing due north at 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 54S 179W aimed north and northeast. In the evening fetch building slightly to 30-35 kts while lifting north with seas 23 ft at 48S 173W aimed northeast. On Sat AM (8/3) fetch is to be building in coverage at 30-35 kts aimed due north with seas 21 ft at 45S 168W aimed northeast. Fetch building in the evening to 35-40 kts aimed north with seas 23 ft at 46S 171W aimed north-northeast. Fetch holds on Sun AM (8/4) at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 47.5S 164W aimed northeast. Something to monitor but so far not strong enough to result in meaningful swell.

ENSO Neutral In Control
Forecast Suggests a Weak La Nina Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (7/27) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (7/28) Today modest east anomalies were over the West KWGA and modest west anomalies over the East KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern holding till 7/30 when east anomalies build in coverage filling most of the KWGA west of the dateline and then all of the KWGA starting 8/10 holding through the end of the model run on 8/13.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (7/27) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral MJO setting up on day 5 of the model run holding through day 10 of the model run with a weak Inactive MJO developing in the West Pacific on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts basically the same thing but with the Inactive MJO starting on day 5 of the model run and holding there through day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (7/17) Stale Data - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the far East Maritime Continent and weak. It is to move to the East Pacific 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts about the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (7/28) This model depicts a moderate Active Phase (wet air) over the West KWGA. It is to track east through 8/12 and then be east of the KWGA with the Inactive Phase (dry air) then moving over the KWGA 8/12 and building to moderate if not strong status holding through 9/1 then moving east of the KWGA> A weak Active MJO is forecast on the last day of the model run 9/6.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/27) Today a weak modest Active MJO was indicated moving over the KWGA with a mix of weak east and west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active MJO tracking through the KWGA through 8/8 with limited west anomalies during that period. Beyond east anomalies are to rebuild at moderate status filling the KWGA through he end of the model run on 8/24 with no clear MJO signal indicated.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (7/28) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a weak Inactive MJO was starting to build over the West KWGA with a weak Active MJO and spotty west anomalies exiting the KWGA. West anomalies to hand around till 8/5 when then Inactive Phase then tracks east with east anomalies taking hold and continuing to 8/29 when the next Active MJO starts pushing into the West KWGA with west anomalies developing. The Active Phase is to track east 8/29 through the end of the model run on 10/15 with west anomalies building east to about160E 9/6 reaching the dateline 10/8 for a brief window then retrograding west. Beyond east anomalies are forecast east of the dateline steadily building and reaching over the dateline and steadily building to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/23. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and a second contour developed 7/14 and is to be hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and built quickly east on (7/24) filling the bulk of the KWGA and east to California if not the whole of the Pacific, but is to collapse 8/5 and be gone. Is is to return filling the bulk of the KWGA starting 9/6 and beyond with only 1 contour line. This is actually an upgrade suggesting weakness in La Nina. A weak La Nina is here and slowly building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (7/28) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was stable at 175E today. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 170W to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line had moved east from 143W to 118W but is now steady at 148W. The 24 degree isotherm extends east to 100W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now at +1-2 degs filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline but this is likely not real and just a model anomaly due to no valid sensors in that area. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -5 degs was centered subsurface at 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 7/22 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W and growing in coverage in the east. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here but not strong. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (7/22) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms east of 170W with 2 broad pockets at -10 to -15 cms between 110-150W and 155-165W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (7/22) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June but is now rebuilding in coverage with temps currently -0.5 to -1.5 degs from Ecuador to 170W and poised for more growth. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5-1.0 degs were west of the dateline over the West Pacific. A clear La Nina pattern is in play.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (7/27) The latest images depict what appears to be a La Nina cool stream building some on the equator from Ecuador west to 180W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (7/27): A modest stream of cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to nearly 140W. La Nina appears to be pulsing.
Hi-res Overview: (7/27) A thin stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 180W but still pretty weak. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/28) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps continued falling as they have the past 2 weeks down at -1.057 degrees but had been briefly near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (7/28) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.287 and have been generally on a dropping trend since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were +0.2 (week of 7/17) +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.16 June. .
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.22 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July, beating expectations.
Forecast (7/28) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and -1.45 degs in Nov 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.3 degs in Aug and -0.5 in Sept then down to -1.10 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.229 degs today and is the 2nd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.383 in Aug (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.5213 in Oct then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.697 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.315 in Jan.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (7/28) the Daily Index was negative at -23.95 and negative now 2 days in a row likely due to extratropical low pressure in the area of Tahiti. It was positive the previous 4 days. It was negative the 11 days prior. It was positive the 13 days previous to that.
The 30 day average was falling at -2.44. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling at -1.57. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 April, -3.00 May, -3.02 in June). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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