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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, August 9, 2018 4:44 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.2 - California & 2.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/6 thru Sun 8/12

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small SHemi Swells Pushing North
Nothing Yet Expected from the North Pacific

BUOY ROUNDUP

On Thursday, August 9, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 15.6 secs from 165 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 155 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 71.2 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.0 ft @ 10.2 secs from 210 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 15.8 secs from 203 degrees. At Camp Pendleton (043) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.1 secs from 221 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 15.8 secs from 207 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 10.0 secs from 274 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 10-12 kts. Water temp 55.6 degs.

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (8/9) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing surf in the thigh to waist high range and mushy and weak and warbled from northwest wind early and fogged in. Protected breaks were thigh high and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean and fogged in. In Southern California/Ventura surf was waist high with some bigger sets and soft but clean. In North Orange Co waves were near head high on the sets and clean coming form the south but a bit soft. South Orange Country's best breaks were getting occasional sets at chest high or so and clean but soft. In North San Diego surf was chest high and clean but soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat with some sets to 2 ft and clean but warbled. The South Shore was small but still getting some waves at waist high or so and clean and lined up but slow. The East Shore was getting small east windswell at waist high or so and chopped from enhanced northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (8/9) small southern hemi swell was fading in Hawaii from a weak gale previously in the upper reaches of the South Central Pacific last Tues-Wed (8/1) with seas to 28 ft aimed north. That swell was also limping into California. Swell from Hurricane John is in the water in Southern CA and building, but is not to get as big as previously hoped for. Another weak gale developed in the deep Central Pacific lifting north Fri-Sun (8/4) producing 26-27 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell from that is pushing north. Another gale developed in the far Southeast Pacific on Wed-Thurs (8/9) with up to 32 ft seas briefly aimed north. But nothing else is to follow. Nothing is forecast developing in the Northern Hemi yet. And no windswell is on the charts. The tropics are forecast to settle down in the next 24 hours too. So small southern hemi swell is the best option for the foreseeable future.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thursday AM (8/9) no swell of interest was in the water nor being generated in the North Pacific other than local windswell.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast other than windswell.

Windswell Forecast
California: On Thursday (8/9) minimal residual northwest windswell was hitting exposed break in North and Central CA. Otherwise no fetch of interest was occurring along the the North and Central Coast with winds 10 kts or less. High pressure at 1024 mbs was 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii but not ridging east, being blocked by low pressure in the eastern Gulf of Alaska resulting in a slack winds pattern along the California coast. More of the same is expected on Fri and Sat (8/11) but with the low pressure system tracking east just off the coast of Oregon. Finally on Sun (8/12) low pressure is to move inland while the high pressure builds and moves into the Central Gulf at 1032 mbs ridging east generating a small fetch of north winds at 20-25 kts limited to the Cape Mendocino area with light winds from south of Pt Arena. Small windswell developing. See QuikCAST's for details.

Hawaii: On Thursday (8/9) Hurricane Hector was tracking west positioned 250 nmiles south of Oahu and no longer producing swell relative to the Islands (see Tropical Update). Trades were fading from 15 kts limited to a shallow area 150 nmiles east of the Islands offering no real support for windswell production. No trades of 15 kts or greater are forecast east of the Islands on Fri (8/10). See QuikCAST's for details.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Hurricane Hector: On Thurs (8/9) Hector was 300 nmiles south of Oahu Hilo Hawaii with winds 105 kts/120 mph tracking west at 15 kts with seas estimated at 30 ft at 16.6N 159.3W with no swell radiating north. Hector is to continue on this heading and strength into Sat AM (8/11) then taking a turning to the west- northwest and slowly fading. There's no indication of any potential for Hector to recurve northeast at this time.

Tropical Storm Kristy: On Thurs (8/9) Kristy was 1500 nmiles east-southeast of the Hilo Hawaii with winds 55 kts tracking north and of no interest from a swell generation perspective. Kristy is to peak on Fri AM (8/10) with winds building to 60 kts but given it far distance from Hawaii and small footprint, no swell of interest is expected to result. Kristy is to continue north and slowly fade, down to tropical depression status on Sun (8/12) with winds 35 kts positioned 600 nmiles southwest of Southern CA and fading and not generating any swell of interest.

Tropical Storm John: On Tues AM (8/7) John was about 350 nmiles south of Cabo San Lucas Mexico with winds 90 kts tracking northwest at 8 kts with seas 28 ft at 17.5N 109.5W and barely in the swell window for breaks west of Pt Dume CA (152 degs). By Tues PM John was peaking, but far weaker than originally forecast, with winds only 90 kts (103 mph) at 18.9N 110W and just barely in the swell window for breaks just west of Pt Dume (152 degs) and 1000 nmiles out from that location tracking northwest with seas 28 ft. Swell is to be generated pushing north. Swell arrival at Pt Dume assuming a 15 sec period would be 42 hours later or 11 PM on Thurs (8/9). On Wed AM (8/8) John was fading with winds 75 kts at 20.3N 111.9W 900 nmiles from Pt Dume and in the swell window there with sea 25 ft. On Thurs AM (8/9) John was down to tropical storm status with winds 60 kts and seas 22 ft at 24.2N 116.7W or well on the 168 degree path to Pt Dume and also in the swell window for Dana Point (175 degrees). Swell production was all but gone.

Pt Dume: Swell to peak on Fri AM (8/10) just before sunrise at 3.4 ft @ 12 secs (4.0 ft faces) with period down to 10 secs later in the day. Dribbles on Sat AM (8/11) at 2.7 ft @ 8-9 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 150-160 degrees turning to 175 degrees (Dana Point).

Tropical Storm Shanshan: The model are suggesting the remnants of Tropical Storm Shanshan, currently 50 nmiles off North Japan with winds 45 kts, are to start racing east on Fri (9/10) pushing over the Dateline Sat AM (9/11) with winds to 30 kts from the west, then tracking northeast into Sun AM (9/12) with winds building to 40 kts from the south and seas 20 ft at 51N 162W offering a slight chance for background swell development mainly for the US West Coast but mainly focusing on Alaska.

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (8/9) north winds were 10+ kts over all of North and Central CA nearshore waters. Weak low pressure was in the Gulf of Alaska suppressing the normal northwest flow that is typically driven by high pressure in the Gulf. On Fri and Sat (8/11) a weak pressure pattern is to hold with north winds barely 15 kts along the North CA coast and 10 kts or less south of Pigeon Point. Sunday (8/12) north winds to build to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 10 kts south of Pt Arena down into to Southern CA. By Mon (8/13) north winds to continue at 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino but a light wind flow is forecast for the remainder of North CA down into Central and South CA and continuing on Tues (8/14). Light winds forecast for the entire state on Wed-Thurs (8/16).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (8/9) the southern branch of the jetstream was ridging south under New Zealand reaching down to 70S and over the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf Antarctic Ice sweeping east then forming a trough over the far Southeast Pacific being fed by 100 kt winds offering weak support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (8/10) this trough is to move east of the California swell window and fade and no longer of interest. To the west the jet is to continue ridging south under New Zealand down at 70S sweeping east and effectively locking down the South Pacific and preventing support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. Beyond 72 hours starting Mon (8/13) the ridge in the west is to start moderating but still flowing zonally from west to east on the 65S latitude line over the width of the South Pacific through Tues suppressing support for gale development. On Wed (8/15) a new ridge is to build in the southern branch of the jetstream south of New Zealand again pushing it south to 72S and starting to sweep east while pushing down into Antarctica reaching the Southeast Pacific on Thurs (8/16) continuing to suppress gale development.

Surface Analysis  
On Thursday (8/9) swell from a tiny gale that developed in the upper reaches of the Central Pacific was hitting fading in Hawaii and hitting California (see Central South Pacific Gale below). Also swell from another gale previously in the deep Central South Pacific was pushing northeast (see Another Central South Pacific Gale). And a third swell was developing while pushing north from the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

Central South Pacific Gale
A tiny gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Tues PM (7/31) with 40 kts south winds aimed north and seas building from 27 ft over a tiny area at 36.5W 155.5W. South winds continued at 35-40 kts on Wed AM (8/1) with seas to 29 ft over tiny area at 35S 150.5W. South fetch is to faded in the evening from 40 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 35S 148W aimed north. This system faded from there. Given the tiny fetch size only limited swell to result for Hawaii and even less for California.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Thurs (8/9) 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell gone after that. Swell Direction: 180 degrees

Southern CA: Swell continues on Thurs (8/9) building to 1.6 ft @ 1.5 ft (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (8/10) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

 

Another Central South Pacific Gale
On Fri AM (8/3) another gale formed in the deep South Central Pacific tiny in size with 40-45 kt south winds aimed north starting to get traction on the oceans surface with seas building from 26 ft at 57S 160W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch built in coverage but fading in velocity at 35 kts aimed north with seas 26-28 ft at 52S 152W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (8/4) fetch was fading in velocity at 35 kts but still decent in coverage from the south with seas 25 ft at 48S 156W aimed north. In the evening fetch faded in coverage still at 35 kts from the south lifting north with seas 24 ft at 44.5S 152W. The gael faded from there. Some degrees of limited swell could result for Hawaii and more so for California down into Central America. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Fri (8/10) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Sat (8/11) 1.6 ft @ 15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (8/12) from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Nothing after that. Swell Direction: 180 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/12) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (8/13) at 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 202 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (8/12) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds on Mon (8/13) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (8/14) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed in the deep Southeast Pacific on Wednesday PM (8/8) with 45 kt south winds pushing well north producing 29 ft seas at 60S 122W. On Thurs AM (8/9) fetch is to fade from barely 40 kts over a tiny area and seas 32 ft at 54.5S 121W. The gale is to fade and move east of the Southern CA swell window and of no interest after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (8/16) near sunrise with period 18 secs and size tiny but building to 3.1 ft @ 17 secs later (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell Direction:180-182 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast

Windswell Forecast
California:
On Monday (8/13) high pressure is the Gulf is to weaken and the gradient and associated fetch over Cape Mendocino is to fade with north winds 20 kts early and down to 15 kts mid-day with light winds south of there and windswell generation potential fading. Tuesday (8/14) even that fetch is to fade out with no windswell generation projected. No change is expected through Thurs (8/16) with no windswell production forecast.

Hawaii: On Saturday (8/11) high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska at 1030 mbs is to be solid but not ridging south resulting in a weak easterly flow at 10 kt is expected over the Hawaiian Islands offering no potential for generating meaningful east windswell. No change is forecast on Sun-Thurs (8/16) as the high fades out north of Hawaii and trades remain from the east generally less than 15 kts.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Details to follow...

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Kelvin Wave #2 Building - ESPI Rising

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and was building over equatorial waters in July, suggesting the demise of La Nina and possibly turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2018 (California & Hawaii) = 4.0
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of Tues (8/8) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific then weakening starting south of Hawaii and continuing moderately easterly from there and over the Kelvin Wave Generation Area. Anomalies were moderate easterly over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral south of Hawaii and light westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/9) modest west anomalies were over the core of the KWGA and forecast to build in coverage and intensity 8/10 holding through the end of the model run on 8/16. in essence, a weak Westerly Wind Burst is developing.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/8) A modest Active/Wet MJO signal was over the KWGA. The statistical model depicts that Active/Wet MJO signal is to steadily weaken and gone at day 6 with a neutral MJO signal indicated at the end of the model run (on day 15). The dynamic model depicts the same thing initially but an Inactive/Dry Phase developing at the end of the model run. The models are mostly in sync in the short term.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/9) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was modest and stalled over the Western Pacific. It is to hold here for a few days then collapse and racing east to the Indian Ocean at the end of the model run 2 weeks out. The GEFS model depicts a variant of the same pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model: (8/9) This model depicts a Active/Wet MJO signal was over the Central Pacific and is to be easing east over Central America on 8/29. A modest Inactive/Dry pattern is to follow in the West Pacific starting 8/19 making slow east headway reaching Central America at the end of the model run on 9/18. At that time a neutral MJO pattern is to be over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/8) This model depicts moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates those west anomalies to hold solid in the KWGA through 8/15 then fading some but still with weak to modest west anomalies holding in the KWGA and rebuilding 8/22 and refilling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/5.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/8) This model depicts the Active/Wet Phase of the MJO is well past it's peak over the KWGA with modest west anomalies over the entirety of the KWGA. This weak Active MJO pattern is to fade through 8/17 with a weak Inactive MJO signal taking over 8/15-9/6 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. A pulse of the Active Phase of the MJO is to develop on 9/10 holding through 10/24 with solid west anomalies developing in the KWGA 9/30 as a strong pulse of the Active Phase builds starting 10/1 with a Westerly Wind Burst developing 9/26-10/20. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 10/26 through the end of the model run on 11/6 but with west anomalies holding, only weaker. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east to 145W and built from 2 contour lines to 3 on 7/8 and then started building 7/24 and is to hold solid through the end of the model run. This means we are biased towards El Nino through the coming Fall season. The eastern edge of the Low Pressure bias is to ease east to 120W (over California) by 10/6. The high pressure bias is currently limited to an area south of California and shrinking steadily and is to be gone by 9/1. The atmosphere and ocean are slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias and should fully reach that state on 8/8 or 3 months after the start of when the low pressure bias officially filled the KWGA (on 5/8), or at least that was our first guess. Based on current data, we're thinking more like 8/28 now. This pattern is more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/9) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs reaching east to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line started to retrograde west from 148W on 7/2 to 153W on 7/10 and is now at 163W due to weakening of a Kelvin Wave under the West Pacific. The 24 deg isotherm was 100 meters deep at 140W but retracting from the coast of Ecuador breaching the surface at 123W. Anomaly wise warm waters associated with the February Kelvin Wave are all but gone with barely +1 degs anomalies pushing into Ecuador. To the west warm anomalies are building indicative of the new building Kelvin Wave at +2 degs centered under the dateline down 150 meters and with a finger of +1.0 degs anomalies reaching east to 133W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/1 depicts the same thing, with a bubble of warm water pushing east in the East Pacific starting at 135W building to +3.5 degs centered at 115W extending east to 105W but not reaching Ecuador. It was breaching the surface between 105W-145W. Additionally more warm water was pushing east from the Maritime Continent spilling into the West Pacific pushing under the dateline at +2.5 degs reaching east to 145W and building in coherency with broken fragments of warm water joining the existing Kelvin Wave east of there. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/1) Positive anomalies were solid from the Maritime Continent over the West Equatorial Pacific and broad in coverage to 170W at +5-10 cms indicative of a new Kelvin Wave (#2) building. East of there it weakened some with 5 cms anomalies continuing broad to 100W, but no further east, remnants of Kelvin Wave #1. There were no breaks over that entire area. No negative anomalies were indicated. El Nino appears to be developing.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/8) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate light cool to near neutral anomalies were along the immediate coast of Peru and Chile. An area of warm water is erupting on the oceans surface on the equator building off Ecuador then weaker from the Galapagos west to 125W, then building some west of there out to the dateline. A broad area of generic warming was also filling the area north of the equator from Mexico out to the dateline. The remnants of the La Nina cool pool were gone.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/8): An elongated pocket of cooling was along the equator from Ecuador to 130W indicative of the end of Kelvin Wave #1's eruption. Temps were slightly cooler along the coasts of Chile and Peru. Cooling previously solid off Central West Africa has weakened substantially, presumably due to east winds and upwelling. We're waiting for that to be mirrored off Ecuador.
Hi-res Overview: (8/8) An area of weak cool water was present along Chile and Peru. Of interest was warm water holding on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos and west from there to the dateline from 10S up to 20N and building in coherence, but still just in the mild warming category. Two pockets of cool water were present at 110W and 125W. The remnant pocket of cool water from La Nina was limited to an area south of the equator starting at 4S between 100-150W and steadily loosing coverage.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/9) Today's temps were fading some down to -0.612 degs. That is up some but still lower than the big peak at +0.459 on 5/13. Overall temps here are steady in the -0.60 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/9) Today temps were steady at +0.315, down from a peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Temps were -0.266 on 6/2, -0.427 on 5/12 after having reached up to -0.254 degs on 5/1. Temps have been steadily rising since 3/27 when they were down at -1.2 degs.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/9) The forecast calls for a steady increase from here forward rising in early Oct to +1.25 degs and to +1.55 degs in Nov then slowly fading through April 2019 down to +1.25 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-July Plume depicts temps at +0.5 degs in July and are to slowly rise from here forward, to +0.6 in August and +0.8 in October and +1.0 in Nov and holding there into Feb 2019. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and a weak El Nino might develop. The CFSv2 is in the high end of that pack.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/9): The daily index was negative today at -16.57 as it has been for the past week. The 30 day average was steady today to 1.61 suggesting the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading. The 90 day average was steady too at -1.21. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (8/9) Today the index was rising at -0.27 (after falling to -1.28 on 7/17). That is still down some from what it recently was, when it hit the highest it's been in a year on 7/2 at -0.09. But the fact that the index dropped from its peak on 7/2 only to redevelop 5 weeks later suggests La Nina has not completely given up it's grip on equatorial precipitation yet and the supposed El Nino pattern is NOT coupled. Recent points of interest in reverse chronological order are: -1.04 on 6/5, -0.70 on 5/20, -0.60 on 5/17, -0.36 on 5/11 and -0.38 on 5/10, -0.35 on 4/26, -1.02 on 4/5, -1.13 on 3/27. The trend suggests La Nina is all but gone. This index is a forerunner of what happens in the ocean by 2-3 months in developing El Nino and La Nina situations.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.10, Mar -0.51, April -0.85, May -0.61, June -0.96. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave

Add a STORMSURF Buoy Forecast to your Google Homepage. Click Here: Add to Google
Then open your Google homepage, hit 'edit' button (top right near graph), and select your location


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (7/29): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NGl_bOqy2Sg&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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