Saturday, August 10, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/ Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 13.4 secs from 190 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 13.3 secs from 248 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 13.6 secs from 189 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 67.8 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.3 secs from 186 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 198 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.8 secs from 192 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.3 secs from 191 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 13.6 secs from 184 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 1-2 kts from the north. Water temp 53.1 degs (013) and 60.4 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (8/10) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was occasionally producing waves at waist high and clean but soft and foggy. Protected breaks were flat and glassy. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist high on the rare sets and clean and somewhat lined up but weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were rarely thigh to waist high and lightly textured and soft. In North Orange Co waves were waist high on the sets and soft and inconsistent. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist to chest high on the sets and clean and soft but rideable. North San Diego had surf at thigh to waist high and soft and weak but reasonably clean. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was rideable with sets at chest to head high and a bit textured from easterly wind but well rideable. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves thigh high and reasonably clean with light east winds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (8/10) in California tiny leftover southern hemi swell from the South Central Pacific was fading out originating from a gale that developed southeast of New Zealand Sun (7/28) with 38 ft seas tracking east-northeast and fading with seas down to 26 ft in the Southeast Pacific on Tues (7/30). And swell was starting to hit Hawaii from a fetch that developed south of the Tasman Sea on Fri (8/2) with 33 ft seas aimed east and slowly fading into late Sat (8/3) then weakly pushed northeast up the east coast of New Zealand Mon-Tues (8/6) producing 25 seas aimed northeast. Long term the models suggest a gale developing southeast of New Zealand on Tues-Wed (8/14) with up to 40 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast migrating east to the Southeast Pacific on Sat (8/17) with seas still in the 30 ft range.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast other than local windswell (see below).
On Sat (8/10) weak low pressure was in the Central Gulf of Alaska cutting the legs out of any high pressure with no windswell producing fetch occurring relative to California nor Hawaii. On Sunday (8/11) low pressure is to be fading in the Gulf as high pressure starts building off Central CA with northwest winds building at 15-20 kts focused on Central CA late afternoon as windswell starts building there. East fetch relative to Hawaii is to start building at 15 kts extending from a bit off California to a point 600 nmiles east of the Islands possibly starting to generate windswell out at sea tracking west. Mon (8/12) northwest winds to continue at 15-20 kts over all of North and Central CA generating small short period windswell there. For Hawaii east fetch is to be 15 kts mainly south of the fetch line into the Big Island likely offering no east windswell generation potential. On Tues (8/13) north winds to be fading at 15-20 kts mainly for North CA later generating small short period windswell there and radiating south into exposed breaks in Central CA with 15 kts north winds just off the Central CA coast. For Hawaii east fetch is to be 15 kts building north and well in the Hawaiian swell window from 450 to 1500 nmiles east of Hawaii possible generating windswell radiating west.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Tropical Storm Krosa: On Wed AM (8/7) Krosa was 900 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan tracking generally north with winds 60 kts and seas 24 ft. Krosa built to typhoon force in the evening peaking with winds to 90 kts (104 mph) still tracking north with 33 ft seas, then fading Fri AM (8/9) with winds 85 kts and seas 32 ft 750 nmiles south of Tokyo. On Sat AM 98/10) Krosa was fading to tropical storm status with 60 kts winds tracking northwest while accelerating some. Krosa is to be fading while continuing northwest at tropical storm status Sun AM (8/11) with winds 55 kts. Possible redevelopment to minimal hurricane strength is forecast before Krosa makes landfall over South Japan on Thurs (8/15) with winds 65 kts (75 mph). The GFS model suggests Krosa is to fade while proceeding inland with no indication of turning northeast. Krosa to provide opportunity for swell production for Japan but not for our forecast area.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (8/10) winds to be from the northwest at 5-10 kts. Sun (8/11) northwest at 10 kts early north of Pt Conception building to 15-20 kts later for all of North and Central CA. On Mon (8/12) north winds are to be 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. On Tuesday (8/13) north winds are to be 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. On Wed (8/14) north winds are to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Thurs (8/15) north winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA building to 30 kts for portions of North Ca later. Fri (8/16) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Sat (8/17) north winds to be fading fast early at 15-20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA fading to 10 kts or less for nearly everywhere later.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
On Saturday (8/10) the influential southern branch of the jet was weakly pushing north under New Zealand but with no defined trough present. East of there the jet was ridging hard south pushing down over Antarctic Ice at 145W continuing that way over the Southeast Pacific actively suppressing support for gale development there. Over the next 72 hours a more defined trough is to start building under New Zealand starting Sun (8/11) being fed by 130 kt winds on Mon (8/12) offering good support for gale development and then weakening while pushing northeast into Tuesday (8/13) but still offering decent support for gale development. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to slowly fade while pushing east into early Thurs (8/15) but with a broad generalized trough filling the Southwest and South Central Pacific but winds down to 80 kts except where the northern branch of the jet meets the northern branch with winds there building to 180 kts perhaps offering some more support for gale development. But by Fri (8/16) the trough is to start collapsing with a ridge starting to build pushing south over the South Central Pacific with another ridge building over the Southwest Pacific by Sat (8/17) generally suppressing support for gale development.
Swell from a gale that traversed the South Pacific is fading out in California (see South-Central Pacific Gale below). Swell from another broad but weak gale is behind targeting Hawaii and California (see New Zealand Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
South-Central Pacific Gale
A pre-gale developed in the Central South Pacific on Sat (7/27) producing a tiny area of 50 kt southwest winds and 29 ft seas at 60S 153W aimed east. Fetch tracked east in the evening and faded from 40 kts from the southwest and seas 27 ft at 58S 142W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (7/28) fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broader area aimed northeast with seas 27 ft at 55S 138W. Fetch held in the evening while lifting northeast with southwest winds 35 kts and seas 27 ft at 52S 131W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there.
A weak gale developed tracking east under New Zealand Sun AM (7/28) with 45 ft west winds and seas building to 38 ft over a small area at 61S 180W. In the evening the gale lifted northeast with 45 kt southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 59.5S 168W aimed east-northeast. The gale continued tracking east-northeast on Monday AM (7/29) while moving over the Central South Pacific with a fairly solid area of 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas fading from 31 ft at 59.5S 155.5W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a broad area of 35 kt southwest winds consolidated with 29 ft seas at 56.5S 140W. On Tues AM (7/30) south winds were 30-35 kts aimed north over a solid area with seas 27 ft at 53S 140W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 50S 132W aimed north-northeast. The gale dissipated after that.
Southern CA: Swell fading on Sat (8/10) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 193 degrees
North CA: Dribbles on Sat (8/10) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs 92.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
New Zealand Gale
Another broader gale developed south of the Tasman Sea on Fri AM (8/2) producing a large area of 35-40 kt southwest to west winds with seas 33 ft at 53S 154.5E aimed east up into the Tasman Sea and somewhat into the California swell window. In the evening the gale built but it's core was over the Ross Ice Shelf getting no traction on the oceans surface with 40 kt southwest winds exposed over ice free waters with 31 ft seas over a solid area at 55S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale continued on Sat AM (8/3) producing 40-45 kt southwest fetch producing 29-30 ft seas at 58.5S 161E aimed northeast. In the evening a broad fetch of 35 kt southwest winds were holding with 28 ft seas at 59S 164E aimed northeast and in the CA and HI swell windows. On Sun AM (8/4) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts positioned south-southwest of New Zealand with seas 27 ft over a small area aimed well northeast at 55S 157.5E targeting Tahiti and California but not Fiji or Hawaii (shadowed by New Zealand). In the evening residual 35 kts southwest winds were due south of New Zealand generating 27 ft seas at 51.5S 164.5E targeting Tahiti and California. On Mon AM (8/5) the gale was lifting northeast with 30-35 kts southwest winds along the east coast of New Zealand producing seas at 25 ft at 48S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale faded with southwest winds 35 kts aimed northeast and off the northeastern tip of New Zealand with seas 24-26 ft seas at 40S 160-180W aimed northeast. Fetch tracked east on Tues AM (8/6) with 35 kt southwest wind and seas 24 ft at 40S 165W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch faded from 30 kts with seas 25 ft at 40S 158W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival via the Tasman Sea on Sat (8/10) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell fading some on Sun (8/11) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 210 degrees swell rebuilding Mon (8/12) to 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) later. Swell fading some on Tues (8/13) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (8/14) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell fading out from there. Swell Direction: 195 degrees
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/13) to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell building on Wed (8/14) to 1.9 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell holding decently on Thurs (8/15) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/16) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (8/13) to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs (2.0 ft) later. Swell building on Wed (8/14) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell holding decently on Thurs (8/15) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/16) fading from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But there is some sense that the Northwest Pacific might start actually moving some, though not producing fetch of interest, but more than being a lake starting Fri (8/16).
On Wed (8/14) the gradient is to build over North CA with north winds 20-25 kts down to Pt Reyes generating building north windswell down into Central CA. East fetch is to be building at 15 kts from 1200 nmiles east of Hawaii pushing west to a point 200 nmiles east of the Islands generating east windswell for all Islands along exposed east facing shores. on Thurs (8/15) high pressure is to take over at 1032 mbs centered in the Northern Gulf with north winds building along the North Coast at 25-30 kts and 20 kts for the Central CA Coast resulting in building windswell along exposed breaks. For Hawaii east fetch is to be 15 kts solid from California over the Hawaiian Islands resulting in building east windswell. On Friday (8/16) fetch is to hold at 20-25 kts for North CA and 15 kts mainly off the coast for Central CA resulting in continued northwesterly windswell. Trades to hold solid for Hawaii at 15+ kts from 1500 nmiles east of Hawaii pushing over the Islands and possibly being enhanced by a tropical system resulting in continue east windswell. On Sat (8/17) fetch is to be rapidly fading for California as low pressure again builds in the Western Gulf with northwest winds 15 kts early mainly over Cape Mendocino and Pt Conception and fading fast with windswell dissipating. For Hawaii easterly fetch is to be fading too at 15+ kts mainly associated with a tropical system supposedly 10o0 nmiles east of Oahu.
Beyond 72 hours the model suggest some fetch is to start building southwest of New Zealand on Sun (8/11) lifting northeast but seas only 25 ft offering nothing. By Monday evening (8/12) southwest winds are to be 30-35 kts just off the Southeast New Zealand with seas 22 ft offering nothing. On Tues AM (8/13) a more meaningful gale is to start building southeast of New Zealand with 40 kt southwest winds over a tiny area aimed northeast with a building area of 24 ft seas at 51S 179W aimed north-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 50 kts over a small area with 37 ft seas aimed north at 49S 176W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/14) south to southwest winds are to be 45-50 kts with 37 ft seas at 45.5S 167.5W. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 47S 162W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (8/15) a small area of 45 kt southwest wind is to be tracking northeast with 39 ft seas at 41.5S 153.5W. In the evening a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds is to be filling the South Central Pacific with peak seas 33 ft at 39.5S 145.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.
Perhaps another small gale to develop behind on Fri AM (8/16) with a small gale coalescing in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with 45 kts southwest winds over a small area with seas building from 33 ft over a tiny area at 49.5S 157.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to build in coverage at 40 kts over a solid sized area aimed northeast with seas 33 ft at 46.5W 150W. On Sat AM (8/17) fetch is to be fading at 40 kts while tracking east with sea fading from 35 ft at 49.5W 143.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Mix Pattern Holding
Cool Water Streaming West on Equator - Low Pressure Bias To Hold Over KWGA
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/9) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds at strong strength extending west over the dateline then fading in the core of the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific then modest easterly over the Central Pacific and weak easterly over the dateline turning weak westerly over the core of the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/10) a neutral anomaly pattern was over the KWGA today with east anomalies solid on the dateline. The forecast is for neutral to weak westerly anomalies holding over the KWGA through the end of the model run on 8/16 with east anomalies slowly fading over the dateline and gone by 8/14 with west anomalies building in their place holding through the end of the model run. A neutral MJO pattern appears to be over the KWGA and is to hold over the next 7 days.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (8/6) A neutral MJO pattern biased towards the Active Phase was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this pattern building with a weak Active Phase in control on days 5-10 then fading at the end of the model run on day 15. The dynamic model indicates a weaker version of the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate in strength over the Central Maritime Continent and is to track slowly east while fading over the Western Pacific at day 15 of the model run. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase perhaps a little strong later in the run stalled if not retrograding over the far Western Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (8/10) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase moving over Central America with a modest Active MJO Phase over the West Pacific. The forecast has the Active Phase of the MJO pushing across the Pacific and into Central America on 9/4 while a secondary pulse of the Active Phase pushes east off New Guinea on 8/30 moving east and fading while a new Inactive Phase builds at strong strength pushing into the far West Pacific at the end of the model run on 9/19.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/9) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with weak to modest west anomalies isolated to 150E in the core of the KWGA but east anomalies encroaching from the dateline and from the west almost filling the KWGA. The forecast has the east anomalies dissipating by 8/14 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 9/6. Support for gale development to start building on 8/14 and holding beyond.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/10) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies near 165E with east anomalies on the dateline and points east of there. A dead neutral MJO signal is to hold through 8/19 but with weak west anomalies mainly on the dateline starting 8/14 and neutral anomalies over the far West KWGA. A weak and short lived Inactive MJO is to set up 8/20 through 9/9 but with weak west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. After that a very weak but broad Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 9/19 holding through 10/20 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to develop in the KWGA on 10/21 pushing east through the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/7 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold though losing some coverage around 10/5, only to rebuild to it's previous coverage on 10/21 and filling the KWGA till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and maybe rebuild or maybe not. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/10) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a decent size area but retrograding some reaching east to 177W while the 29 deg isotherm was retrograding today to 167W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 155W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 123W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible Kelvin Wave #5 developing there. In the East Pacific warm anomalies were rebuilding some today at barely +1 degree pushing east from 150W into the far East equatorial Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/6 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small Kelvin Wave under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 130W at +1.0 degs above normal, building in depth reaching down 175 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to nearly the surface from 135W to Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/6) A small pocket of positive anomalies were present under the dateline at +5 cms from 175E to 145W. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific with neutral anomalies over the bulk of the equator and a small area of negative anomalies at -5 cms was over the Galapagos.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north and south of the equator from Central America west to 120W and then with broader coverage from 120W to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 135W solidly suggestive of La Nina. And the warm anomalies south of the equator were fading in coverage holding over a thin stream aligned west to east centered at 10S. At this time there is only weak indications of the remnants of El Nino remaining off the equator but with likely signs of La Nina developing directly on the equator in the East Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/9): A cooling trend/stream remained in-place pushing from off Ecuador west to 140W on the equator but really focused today from 110W-140W. Cool pockets were over that area interspersed with a few tiny pockets of warming water, but the cool anomalies were clearly in control. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is becoming apparent.
Hi-res Overview: (8/9) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west off Ecuador to 140W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, from Ecuador west over the Galapagos 20 degrees north of the equator and effectively gone south of the equator to 140W. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 140W indicative of La Nina. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/10) Today's temps were steady today at -0.810 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/7) Today temps were falling some today at +0.170 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June but appears to be rebounding some now.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/10) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.1 degs in late July and falling down slightly to -0.02 degs Oct 1 then falling through Dec to -0.30 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.30 degs by April 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern is forecast, neither El Nino nor La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/10): The daily index was positive today at +20.15 positive the last 5 days. The 30 day average was rising at -2.10. The 90 day average was rising at -6.80, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern biased towards El Nino (for now).
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (8/11):
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Surfer -Shaper Glen Kennedy passed away earlier this month. His memorial paddle out is set for Sunday, July 28th at First Point Malibu at 10 AM. Come celebrate Glen's life.
NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By
popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes
GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand
column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table