Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 191 degrees. Water temp 80.6 (Barbers Pt), 80.1 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.7 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 7.4 secs from 72 degrees. Water temp 79.3 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 6.5 secs from 39 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 5.6 secs with southern hemi swell 1.6 ft @ 15.8 secs from 163 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-25 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 61.0 (Harvest 071), 69.8 (Topanga 103), 72.5 (Long Beach 215), 72.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 73.4 (Del Mar 153), 72.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.7 ft @ 16.6 secs from 189 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 0.6 ft @ 10.1 secs from 264 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 15.9 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.2 secs from 191 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.5 ft @ 16.8 secs from 196 degrees. Water temperature was 73.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 18.2 secs with southern hemi swell 1.6 ft @ 17.2 secs from 186 degrees. Wind west at 6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 5 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NW at 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 52.9 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 55.6 (San Francisco 46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 56.1 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 54.9 (Monterey Bay 46092).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/18) in North and Central CA waves were thigh to maybe waist high and soft and mushed but mostly clean with just some surface texture and foggy early. Protected breaks were up to near waist high and soft and closed out and clean with heavy fog early. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the rare sets and clean and somewhat lined up with fog just off the coast. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and mushed but real clean. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high on the peaks of the sets and lined up coming from the south and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to chest high and lined up with decent form and real clean early but soft. North San Diego had sets to waist high and lined up and weak but fairly clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with rain early. The South Shore was small with sets to maybe waist high and soft and short but clean early. The East Shore was waist high and chopped from moderate east-northeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/18) small swell was hitting California originating from a storm that developed in the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (8/9) with up to 48 ft seas aimed east to southeast. On Mon-Tues (8/13) a gale tracked northeast along the coast of New Zealand producing 25 ft seas aimed northeast possibly resulting in small swell mainly for Hawaii. The models continue to suggest a gale developing just east of New Zealand on Mon-Tues (8/20) with 28 ft seas aimed northeast. Nothing else is forecast beyond. Up north a tropical system started recuving northeast off Japan on Sat (8/17) with seas to 40 ft forecast to push north of the Aleutians on the dateline later Mon (8/19). Something to monitor.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/18) an extra-tropical system was tracking northeast off Japan (see Tropical Storm Ampil below). Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest were in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. That said, the GFS model suggests 2 tropical systems possibly forming while tracking east between Mexico and Hawaii targeting Hawaii well.

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Ampil developed south of Japan on Wed (8/14) tracking north almost impacting Central Japan late Thurs (8/15) then started to turn northeast late Fri (8/16). On Sat AM (8/17) Ampil was tracking east off North Japan at hurricane strength with winds 67 kts producing seas at 42 ft at 37.25N 148E aimed northeast. In the evening Ampil was heading east-northeast down to tropical storm strength with winds 59 kts and seas 43 ft at 38.5N 153.25E of 600 nmiles east of North Japan. On Sun AM (8/18) Ampil continued east-northeast with winds 51 kts and seas 40 ft at 40.75N 158.5E and starting to accelerate to the northeast. The forecast has Tropical storm Ampil heading northeast on Sun PM with winds 55 kts and seas modeled at 37 ft at 43.5N 163.25E though other data suggests seas only 28 ft. By Mon AM (8/19) Ampil is to continue northeast approaching the Central Aleutians with winds 50 kts and seas modeled at 29 ft at 46.25N 169.25E. In the evening Ampil is to start impacting the Central Aleutians with 36 kt winds and seas fading from 22 ft at 50.5N 173.75E aimed northeast. Ampil to move into the Bering Sea and fade after that. Low odds of tiny swell radiating east towards Hawaii and California.

Oahu: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Thurs (8/22) building to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs in the afternoon (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Fri AM (8/23) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arriving on Fri (8/23) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell builds some Sat (8/24) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs in the afternoon. Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 295 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (8/19) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts mainly south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts mainly south of Monterey Bay. No windswell expected.
Tues AM (8/20) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell expected.
Wed AM (8/21) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts over North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. No real windswell expected.
Thurs (8/22) northwest winds are to be 15-20 kts for both North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to fade to 10-15 kts for North CA Nand 15 kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Fri AM (8/23) no real change forecast with northwest winds 10 kts early for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA early. No real change in the afternoon. No meaningful windswell expected to result.
Sat AM (8/24) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. More of the same in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Sun AM (8/25) northwest winds to be 15 kts for both north and Central CA early. No meaningful windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater until it falls to 9,000 ft on Fri (8/23). Temps at the intersection 50-55 degs into Thurs (8/22) then falling to near freezing late Fri (8/23) then rebuilding to 55-60 degs Sun-Mon (8/26).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (8/18) the southern branch of the jet was pushing north under New Zealand with winds to 140 kts forming a trough offering support for gale development. East of there the jet was pushing southeast eventually impacting Antarctic Ice southwest of Chile forming a ridge offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the New Zealand trough is to continue lifting northeast into Mon AM (8/19) supporting gale formation then weakening on Tues (8/20) through still present while slowly drifting east off New Zealand offering less support for gale formation with winds down to 110 kts. A big ridge is to be well established over the Southeast Pacific. Beyond 72 hours starting Wed (8/21) the jet is to start pushing southeast under New Zealand forming a ridge pushing down to 70S well over Antarctic Ice actively suppressing support for gale formation and continuing into Sun (8/25). The Southern Hemi Winter appears to be fading out.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (8/18) tiny swell was hitting California from a storm formed in the deep Southwest Pacific tracking east (see South Central Pacific Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a small gale that developed just east of New Zealand is tracking north towards Hawaii (see Small New Zealand Gale below).

On Sun AM (8/18) a broad gale was starting to circulate over and just east of New Zealand producing a broad fetch of 35 kts south winds impacting Southern New Zealand. In the evening south winds to become exposed just southeast of New Zealand at 35-40 kts with seas 24 ft at 53S 168E impacting South New Zealand. On Mon AM (8/19) south to southwest winds to be 35-40 kts free and clear east of New Zealand with seas 27 ft at 48S 175E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to hold at 35-40 kts with seas 27-28 ft at 46S 174W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/20) southwest winds to be 30-35 kts over a solid area with seas 28 ft at 53S 168W aimed east-northeast. In the evening lingering west winds to hold at 40-45 kts with seas 30 ft at 60.25S 150.25W aimed east if not southeast. The gale is to fall southeast from there. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific Storm
A gale developed southwest of New Zealand on Wed PM (8/7) producing southwest winds 40-45 kts trying to get traction with 23 ft seas developing at 57.25S 177.75W aimed east. On Thurs AM (8/8) a solid area of 50-55 kt west winds were in-play and seas building from 40 ft at 60.75S 166.5W aimed east. The Jason-3 satellite pass near the core of the storm at 17Z and recorded a peak reading of seas at 52.2 ft with a 15 reading average at 47.7 ft just north of the fetch area. In the evening the gale tracked east-northeast with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas 37 ft at 60.25S 155.75W aimed east almost impacting Antarctic Ice. On Fri AM (9/8) fetch was fading from 35 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas fading from 29 ft at 58.75S 145.75W aimed east. The Jason-3 satellite made another successful pass reporting seas 30.6 ft (15 reading average) with a peak reading to 34.7 ft. The gale was fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 27 ft at 58S 138.5W aimed east-northeast.

Given the due east trajectory of the storm there very low odds of meaningful swell resulting radiating up into California and even less for Hawaii. But given the relatively high confirmed sea heights as compared to the models projections, some swell arrival times are projected below for tracking purposes.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Saturday with swell 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 201 degrees

North CA: Swell fading as period hits 17 secs at 3 AM on Sun (8/18) with swell size 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 199.7 degrees

Small New Zealand Gale
A gale started to develop just east of Central New Zealand on Mon AM (8/12) producing south winds at 30-35 kts with seas building. In the evening the gale was lifting north with south winds 35 kts over a decent sized area with seas 23 ft over a small area at 40S 177W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (8/13) the gale was lifting northeast with south winds 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 37S 173.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds were fading from 30+ kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 33.5S 163W aimed northeast and fading fast. The gale dissipated from there. Swell likely only for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on late on Sun (8/18) building some to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (8/19) to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell holding on Tues (8/20) at 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (8/21) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

ENSO Neutral In Control
Forecast Suggests a Weak La Nina Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/17) A major new sensor upgrade in the west is now operational. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (8/18) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern building with east anomalies filling the KWGA reaching near strong status starting 8/19 holding into 8/24, fading to near neutral through 8/28, then rebuilding to strong status 8/29 through the end of the model run on 9/3 focused on the dateline. A significant Inactive MJO is in development stronger than what would be expected from a weak La Nina.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/17) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO (dry air) fading some on day 5, then fading and almost gone on day 10 and then gone on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing with a weak Active MJO (wet air) developing over the far West KWGA on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (8/18) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was over the Central Indian Ocean and modest. It is to move to the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it building to modest strength over the Central Maritime Continent 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (8/18) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) just start to move over the far West Pacific today. The Active Phase is to slowly build over the KWGA through 9/7 then fading. A weak Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 9/17 through the end of the model run on 9/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/17) Today a neutral MJO was depicted over the KWGA but with moderate east anomalies mainly west of the dateline. The forecast has moderate to strong east anomalies in control to 8/24, fading to moderate east anomalies focused on the dateline from then through the end of the model run on 9/14.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/18) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was building solidly over the KWGA with east anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/5 with east anomalies continuing unchanged. An Active MJO starts pushing into the West KWGA 8/28 with west anomalies developing over the west KWGA and building to the east holding through the end of the model run on 11/15. West anomalies building to the east to about 165E by 9/19 stalling there making no further eastward progress and holding through the end of the model run. East anomalies east of there. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with a second contour developing 7/14 and both are to be holding from 130E and points west of there through the end of the model run unchanged. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. Is is to return filling the East Pacific 9/25 from 165E and points east of there through the end of the model run but with no 2nd contour developing. This pattern is consistently being forecast by this model.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 180W. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 170W. The 28 deg isotherm line stable at 162W. The 24 degree isotherm was retrograding west to 112W where previously it was the whole way across the Pacific but very shallow. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and neutral in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 150W and trying to reach to the surface at 110W but this is questionable given the lack of sensors there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/11 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling while growing in coverage over the entire East Equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/11) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador east of 160W and -10 cms between 107-140W. This suggests a cooling trend is in play but not as strong as a few days ago. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/11) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June but rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps -0.5 to -1.5 degs from Ecuador to 167W and solidifying its position with a new core developing at -1.5-2.0 degs between 120-135W, but showing some signs of starting to fade in the west. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were west of the dateline starting at 170W and have been since late May. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/17) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was holding on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W broadest from 110-140W. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/17): A stream of cooling waters in pockets were on the equator between 90W to 150W, fading from days previous. The current La Nina pulse is gaining momentum.
Hi-res Overview: (8/17) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 160W with the broadest coverage from 110W to 140W and maybe a bit smaller in coverage than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/18) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at -0.479 after reaching a recent low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/18) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.343 after building to -0.190 (8/6) after falling to about -0.55 degs on 7/31 and have generally been on a dropping trend since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were +0.0 (week of 8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June and +0.10 July.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.38 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (8/18) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and -1.50 degs in Nov-Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs late Aug and -0.95 in Sept then down to -1.20 degs in Nov-Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The July 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.229 degs today and is the 2nd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.383 in Aug (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.5213 in Oct then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.697 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.315 in Jan.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (8/17) the Daily Index was positive at +21.00 and has been a mix of postive and negative the last month.
The 30 day average was rising slightly at -5.66 and has been mostly negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -3.49 and negative the last month. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.12 April, -3.00 May, -3.16 in June and -2.97 July). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stably and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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