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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, August 18, 2019 1:59 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.8 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 8/19 thru Sun 8/25

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

New Zealand Swell Targets Hawaii
North Pacific Models Weakly Teasing

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, August 18, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 13.3 secs from 229 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.0 secs from 272 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 12.8 secs from 252 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 66.2 degs (46086). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.1 ft @ 8.3 secs from 316 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.4 secs from 218 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.6 secs from 200 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.1 ft @ 12.9 secs from 234 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 7.4 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 5.7 ft @ 8.0 secs from 324 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northeast at 4-6 kts. Water temp 53.2 degs (013) and 61.2 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (8/18) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves at waist high and fully chopped from brisk southerly wind. Protected breaks were waist high or so and glassy and swamped. At Santa Cruz waves were maybe waist high on the sets and clean but weak and looking like pure windswell. In Southern California/Ventura waves were maybe waist high on the sets and weak and pretty textured. In North Orange Co waves were maybe waist high on the peak of the sets and weak and mushy but clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were waist high or so and clean but weak. North San Diego had surf at up to waist high and semi lined up but soft but clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting very limited hurricane swell with waves waist to occasionally chest high and clean. The South Shore was waist high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves thigh to waist high and a nearly chopped from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (8/18) in California no real swell of interest was hitting other than local windswell. Of more interest is swell from a gale that developed just southeast of New Zealand Tues-Wed (8/14) with up to 40 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast migrating east to the Southeast Pacific through Sat (8/17) with seas slowly fading from 32 ft to 28 ft over that time period. Swell to hit Hawaii first and then California. But no swell producing weather system are forecast for the next week in the Southern Pacific. But up north a pair of weak weather systems are to possibly develop in the Gulf of Alaska and over the Dateline early next week.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is in the water and no swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours a slightly better pattern is to possibly emerge.

On Mon AM (8/19) a small low pressure system is to start building in the Central Gulf of Alaska producing 30-35 kt west winds over a tiny area near 38N 147W aimed east with seas building. In the evening a small fetch of 30-35 kt west winds are to be building in the gales south quadrant off the Pacific Northwest with 18 ft seas building over a tiny area at 42.5N 143W aimed east. On Tues AM (8/20) the gale is to be dissipating while lifting northeast off Oregon with 25 kts west winds and seas fading from 15-16 ft at 44N 139W. The gale to then redevelop in the evening with 45 kt north winds off British Columbia with 25 ft seas at 50N 139.5W and just barely in the swell window for San Francisco (319 degrees). On Wed AM (8/21) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts from the north with 21 ft seas fading at 50N 133W and well outside the NCal swell window but targeting the Pacific Northwest well. Something to monitor.

On Mon AM (8/19) a gale is to start building just west of the dateline with 35 kt northwest winds over a small area with seas building from 18 ft at 42N 175E aimed southeast. In the evening the gael is to lift north a decent but small fetch of 35 kt west winds holding with seas 20 ft over a tiny area at 44N 180W. The gale is to fade on Tues AM (9/20) with 25-30 kt west winds and seas 16 ft aimed east at 45N 179E. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Windswell Outlook
On Sunday (8/18) low pressure in the Western Gulf of Alaska is to be cutting the legs out of local high pressure with north winds at 15 kts off Northern CA early producing no real windswell and that fetch fading out late morning. No windswell producing fetch is forecast for Hawaii. By Monday (8/19) low pressure is to start building in the Gulf with no high pressure around offering no odds for windswell production for CA or HI. On Tuesday (8/20) low pressure and a front off the Pacific Northwest is to dominate the East Pacific offering no odds for high pressure formation and therefore no odds for windswell production for California or Hawaii. Wednesday (8/21) weak high pressure is to be trying to develop 600 nmiles north of Hawaii ridging east producing 15 kt north winds along the North CA coast and up to 20 kts for Central CA focused on Pt Conception but only pockets of east winds east of Hawaii likely resulting in no windswell production.

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

The GFS model suggests some sort of tropical system developing 1200 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island of Hawaii on Thurs (8/22) building while pushing east and reaching hurricane status then starting to lift northwest on Sun (8/25) 600 nmiles east-southeast of the Big Island. Something to monitor.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (8/18) north winds were fading from 15-20 kts early for extreme North CA and 5-10 kts everywhere else and fading over all locations. Monday (8/19) a weak wind flow is forecast all day. Tuesday (8/20) light northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts or less for North and Central CA but 15 kts from the northwest south of Monterey Bay. Wed (8/21) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA and 20 kts south of Monterey Bay. Thursday (8/22) northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for North CA and Central CA down to Monterey Bay and 20 kts south of there to Pt Conception. Fri (8/23) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Sat (8/24) northwest winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA. Sun (8/25) north winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for Bodega Bay southward to Pt Conception.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (8/18) the influential southern branch of the jet was falling south under New Zealand down to 61S creating a ridge reaching nearly to the northern edge of the Ross Ice Shelf and pushing east. East of there the jet was falling hard south from 140W and points east of there forming a ridge. The net effect is there was no support for gale development anywhere in the upper atmosphere across the South Pacific. Over the next 72 hours the ridge under New Zealand is to push hard east falling south to 63S on Wed (8/21) still filling the bulk of the South Pacific still offering no support for gale development. But on Tues (8/20) a weak trough is to try and build under New Zealand and then up into the Tasman Sea on Wed (8/21) being fed by 150 kt winds offering good support for gale development there relative to Fiji. Beyond 72 hours a weak ridge is to hold over the greater South Pacific Thurs (8/22) and being reinforced by a new building ridge building over the Tasman Sea at 110 kts on Fri (8/23) pushing over the Southwest Pacific reaching south to 70S on Sat (8/24) but weak at 80 kts but effectively suppressing support for gale development and the ridge only building into Sun (8/25) focused over the Central South Pacific. No support for gale development is forecast.

Surface Analysis  
Swell from a gale that built in a good position south of New Zealand then pushed east is in the water tracking northeast towards Hawaii and California (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

Another New Zealand Gale
A meaningful gale started building southeast of New Zealand on Tuesday AM (8/13) with 45-50 kt south winds over a tiny area aimed northeast with a building area of 24 ft seas at 52S 179E aimed north-northeast. In the evening south winds at 50-55 kts over a small area with 39 ft seas aimed north at 53S 180W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (8/14) south to southwest winds were 40-45 kts with the fetch lifting north and seas 41 ft over a small area at 47S 174.5W. Fetch was fading in the evening from 45 kts from the southwest with seas 35 ft at 42S 167.5W aimed northeast over a modest sized area. On Thurs AM (8/15) a small area of 40-45 kt southwest wind were tracking east-northeast with 33 ft seas at 39S 152.5W. In the evening a broad area of 30-35 kt southwest winds were in the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific with peak seas 28 ft at 38.5S 146W aimed east-northeast. On Friday (8/16) west-to southwest winds were 35-40 kts over a modest area with 30 ft seas at 41S 146.5W aimed east-northeast over a tiny area. In the evening 35+ kt east fetch was tracking east with seas 30 ft at 38S 137W aimed east-northeast. On Sat (8/17) the gale was fading with a small area of 35 kt southwest winds tracking east with seas 26 ft at 43S 131W aimed east-northeast. In the evening this system was fading and moving out of the SCal swell window.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on late on Mon (8/19) with swell building to 1.4 ft @ 20 secs (2.5 ft). Swell building through the day on Tuesday (8/20) pushing 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs (4.5 ft) at sunset. Swell holding steady on Wed (8/21) at 2.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (8/22) from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (8/23) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.4 ft @ 18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (8/23) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/24) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 212 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on late on Wed (8/21) with period 20 secs and size not noticeable. Swell slowly building on Thurs (8/22) to 1.8 ft @ 18 secs late (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell peaking on Fri (8/23) at 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (8/24) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (8/25) from 1.4 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a possibly improving pattern is forecast.

Windswell Outlook
Thurs (8/22) more low pressure is to be building in the Northern Gulf offering only generic weak high pressure with north winds 20-25 kts focused on Morro Bay offering windswell production only there relative to CA. For Hawaii east winds are to be 15 kts up to 1500 nmiles east of the Islands offering weak odds for windswell production. Friday (8/23) high pressure is to be fading with 15 kt northwest winds forecast along and just off all of the North and Central CA coast possibly setting up minimal northerly windswell at exposed breaks. For Hawaii east fetch is to be 15 kts up to 1000 nmiles east of the Islands being fed by a possible weak tropical system 1000 nmiles east-southeast of Hawaii. On Sat (8/24) generic northwest winds at 15-20 kts to be along the North and Central CA coast making for only minimal windswell production potential. For Hawaii the tropical system is to be 750 east-southeast of the Big Island with east fetch from north of there over the Hawaiian Islands offering decent windswell production potential. On Sun (8/25) high pressure is to be building over the Central Gulf generating north winds at 25-30 kts over North CA and 15kt north winds down to Pt Conception generating windswell there. For Hawaii east fetch associated with high pressure is to fade but theoretically swell from the tropical system is to be pushing west while the tropical system starts tracking northwest.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast. We suspect the summer swell generation season is nearly over.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Cool Water Continues Building West Along the Equator

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and did not stop, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June warm water was fading and the outlook did not favor El Nino come Fall.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Summer 2019 = 5.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that weak borderline El Nino condition continue, and assuming a weak ocean-atmospheric coupling holds and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 hold in the +0.8 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the South Pacific during the Northern Hemisphere Summer time months. There is slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 Summer seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/17) 5 day average winds were solidly from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific with east winds moderate strength extending west to 160W then fading and dead neutral from 165W and points west of there over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific to 170W then turning moderately westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (8/18) moderate westerly anomalies were on the dateline and mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast is for westerly anomalies to slowly fade while retrograding west through 8/23 with weak east anomalies starting to build on the dateline towards the end of the model run on 8/20 through the end of the model run on 8/25. A mostly neutral MJO pattern is forecast over the next 7 days.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (8/17) A neutral MJO pattern was indicated over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a building Inactive Phase is to set up over the West Pacific/KWGA starting on Day building and holding filling the KWGA through day 15. The dynamic model indicates a far weaker version of the same thing.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (8/18) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak in strength over the Eastern Atlantic and is to migrate steadily east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase making it only to the West Indian Ocean at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (8/18) This model depicts a strong Inactive Phase over the Maritime Continent today with a neutral pattern over the greater Pacific. The Inactive Phase is to tracking east over the KWGA 8/26 then pushing east over Central America at the end of the model run on 9/27. A weak Active Phase of the MJ is to develop over the West Pacific 9/17 tracking east moving over the Central Pacific at the end of the model run.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/16) This model depicts no MJO signal present in the Pacific today but with modest west anomalies on the dateline. The forecast depicts these west anomalies holding solidly in 3 pulses through the end of the model run on 9/13.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/18) This model depicts a neutral MJO pattern over the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies near the dateline. The forecast has a dead neutral MJO signal holding through 8/22 but with weak west anomalies holding on the dateline. A weak and short lived Inactive MJO is to set up 8/23 through 9/9 but with weak west anomalies holding in the core of the KWGA. After that a very weak but broad Active Phase is forecast moving over the KWGA on 9/14 holding through 10/29 with weak to modest west anomalies filling the entirety of the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO pattern is to develop in the KWGA on 10/22 pushing east through the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/15 but with weak west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 1 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. This single remaining contour line is to hold for the foreseeable future, with a second contour line develop 11/6 and holding till the end of the model run. If this pattern holds over the next few weeks, this would constitute a significant upgrade. This model indicates that a weak El Nino pattern is to fade in late August and maybe rebuild or maybe not. Basically we are moving from a pattern biased towards El Nino to one biased towards ENSO neutral. but no sign of La Nina is depicted.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (8/18) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a decent size area but still retrograding west reaching east to only 180W while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 169W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 159W today. The 24 deg isotherm previously pushed into Ecuador at 30 meters down, but retrograded on 7/11 from 107W to 121W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling most of the subsurface Pacific at +1 degs from the surface to 150 meters down (deepest on the dateline) and indicative of a possible stationary Kelvin Wave #5 there. In the East Pacific warm anomalies reached east to 103W over a shallow area reaching only 50 meters down and were no longer reaching Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/11 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a small Kelvin Wave under the Central equatorial Pacific from 160E to 130W at +1.0 degs above normal, building in depth reaching down 175 meters. A small pocket of cool water was drawing up from depth to nearly the surface from 135W to Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/11) A infinitesimal pocket of positive anomalies were present under the dateline at +5 cms. Otherwise no positive anomalies are indicated over the equatorial Pacific. If anything negative anomalies were building west from Ecuador at -5 cms reaching 150W strongly suggestive of La Nina.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (8/17) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate weak warm anomalies are present north of the equator from Central America west to 140W and then with broader coverage from 140W to the dateline but with a stream of cool waters along the coast of Chile up to Peru then streaming west on the equator off Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 140W solidly suggestive of La Nina. And warm anomalies previously south of the equator in that region were all but gone east of 120W and very weak from 120W to 160W. At this time there is really no remaining signs of El Nino remaining in the East equatorial Pacific with La Nina developing there instead.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/17): A cooling trend/stream remained in-place pushing from off Ecuador west to 150W on the equator but far weaker than days past. Cool pockets were over that area interspersed with a building proportion of warming water, but the cool anomalies were clearly in control. In general the trend towards a cooler pattern in the equatorial Pacific is very apparent and is showing no signs of fading.
Hi-res Overview: (8/17) A clear La Nina cool stream was pushing west off Ecuador to 150W. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator but all but gone south of the equator. But that unmistakable stream of cool water was running west on the equator from just off the Peruvian Coast and then solidly from the Galapagos west to 145W indicative of La Nina. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be developing.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (8/18) Today's temps were steady today at -0.616 and have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(8/18) Today's temps were still falling at -0.193 today. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (8/15) The model indicates a cooling trend has set up with temps +0.05 degs in August and holding through Oct then falling through Dec to -0.20 degrees. On Jan 1 2020 temps are to start rebuilding reaching +0.50 degs by April 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern is forecast, neither El Nino nor La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The June 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.60 degs in June, and are to hold in the +0.70 range into November, then fading slightly to +0.65 in February 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (8/18): The daily index was positive today at +7.46, positive the last 2 days. The 30 day average was neutral at 0.07. The 90 day average was rising at -7.28, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (April) +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. It is approaching El Nino territory but still indicted mostly ENSO neutral conditions.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (8/18):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V0Dtl4gnggE&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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