Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 9.6 secs from 179 degrees. Water temp 81.3 (Barbers Pt), 81.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 5.3 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 8.7 secs from 76 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 322 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 6.2 secs with northwest windswell 2.0 ft @ 12.6 secs from 306 degrees. Wind northwest at 20-25 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 58.8 (Harvest 071), 67.8 (Topanga 103), 68.5 (Long Beach 215), 71.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 73.2 (Del Mar 153), 72.5 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.6 ft @ 12.3 secs from 294 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.0 ft @ 11.9 secs from 272 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 207 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 14.1 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 202 degrees. Water temperature was 67.3 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with northwest windswell 2.7 ft @ 10.4 secs from 305 degrees. Wind northwest at 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and N 7-8 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 60.8 (San Francisco 46026), 60.3 (SF Bar 142), 60.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 57.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 59.9 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/1) in North and Central CA waves were waist high coming from the northwest and mushed and slightly warbled and barely rideable. Protected breaks had rare sets at thigh high and mushed and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to maybe thigh high on the sets and clean and very soft and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and textured. Central Orange County had sets at waist high and weak and mushed and barely rideable but clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up with decent form and soft and clean. North San Diego had sets to thigh high and lined up and soft and mushed and clean early. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had a few thigh high sets and clean but real soft. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/1) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii other than locally generated windswell. A tiny gale developed south of the Eastern Aleutians on Thurs (8/29) with seas to 20 ft. No real swell to result. But, a small gale is forecast developing in the Gulf on Mon-Tues (9/3) with 26 ft seas aimed east. Nothing else is forecast but there appears to be potential beyond.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (9/1) the jet was fairly cohesive tracking east roughly over the Aleutians with winds 130 kts in 2 pockets but with no troughs indicated then falling southeast forming a weak trough over the Northeastern Gulf but winds only 90 kts offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to start falling south over the Northwestern Gulf Mon PM (9/2) with winds 110 kts starting to form a trough and building to 130 kts Tues AM (9/3) offering decent support for gale formation. The trough is to start weakening in the evening lifting northeast with support for gael formation fading. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to continue tracking east over the Aleutians Thurs AM (/5) with winds 140-150 kts mostly landlocked but still gently falling southeast over the Eastern Gulf and exposed forming a weak trough perhaps supporting gale formation. And if anything Fri-Sat (9/7) that trough to deepen being fed by 130 kt winds offering good support for gale formation. By Sun (9/8) the jet is to be 110-120 kts running east over the Aleutians then weakening still falling southeast over the Northeastern Gulf and starting to look alot more like Fall.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/1) no swell producing weather systems of interest were in the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours minimal background swell from a gale previously south of the Eastern Aleutians is to arrive in North and Central CA (see East Aleutian Gale below).

And a stronger gale is forecast developing on Mon AM (9/2) in the Central Gulf producing west winds at 30 kts starting to get some traction while lifting northeast with seas starting to build. In the evening north and northwest winds to build to 40-45 kts with seas 20 ft at 44.5N 157.75W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (9/3) northwest winds to be 40+ kts and seas 26 ft at 46.5N 151.25W aimed southeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts and seas 20-22 ft aimed east at 48N 150W aimed east. The gale to dissipate after that. Possible swell for Hawaii but really focused on the Pacific Northwest down into North and Central CA. Something to monitor.

East Aleutian Gale
A gale developed on Wed AM (8/28) over the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians producing a small area of 35-40 kt west winds with seas trying to develop. In the evening the gale was straddling over the Central Aleutians with maybe some 30 kt west winds just barely south of the Aleutians offering nothing. Thurs AM (8/29) the gale fell southeast some over the far west Southeast Aleutians with winds 30 kts and seas 17 ft over a small area at 50.5N 170.75W aimed east. in the evening fetch built some while becoming more exposed under the East Aleutians with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 20 ft at 51.5N 165.75W aimed east and expanding in coverage some later in the evening. The gale dissipated from there. Low odds of small swell resulting at the coast.

North California: Swell arriving on Mon (9/2) late afternoon building to 1.4 ft @ 12-13 secs at sunset (1.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues AM (9/3) at 2.0 ft @ 11-12 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals Wed AM (9/4) fading from 1.6 ft @ 10 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 308 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (9/2) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
Tues AM (9/3) northwest winds to be 20+ kts over Cape Mendocino early and northwest 10 kts south of there but up to 15 ks south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. Limited northwest windswell at exposed breaks.
Wed AM (9/4) northwest winds to be 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest at 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (9/5) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. Low odds of any windswell forecast.
Fri AM (9/6) northwest winds to be 20 kts over Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts for the rest of North and all of Central CA. No change in the afternoon but with winds up to 25 kts over Cape Mendocino. Windswell building slightly later.
Sat AM (9/7) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts over Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade at 15 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading through the day.
Sun AM (9/8) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts over a small area for North CA early and northwest 10 kts early for Central CA. No windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14,000 ft or greater. Temps to hold steady at the intersection level at 55-60 degs through Fri (9/6) falling to 50-55 kts after that.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest have occurred with no swell hitting or in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (8/31) Sensors are down in the east. Hoping a sensor upgrade is in works. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/1) Today strong to very east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern holding for the next 2 weeks but with a pocket of strong west anomalies developing 9/6-9/11 in the far West KWGA but then being overtaken again by strong west anomalies. A significant Inactive MJO is underway and forecast to continue.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (8/31) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the far west KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) building on day 5 of the model run filling half the KWGA, building on days 10 and 15 to strong status. The dynamic model depicts the same thing through not quite as strong.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/1) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Maritime Continent. It is to move to the West Pacific 2 weeks out and somewhere between very weak and moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts it meandering to the East Maritime Continent 2 weeks out and building to moderate strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model depicts a strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) moving east over the West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly track east over the KWGA through 9/18 at strong status then pushing east of the KWGA. A moderate Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 9/26 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/5.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/31) Today the Inactive MJO was depicted over the KWGA with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive MJO and east anomalies filling the KWGA through 9/7. West anomalies and the Active MJO to build over the West KWGA starting 9/7 tracking east and filling the KWGA through 9/26. Weak east anomalies to redevelop over the KWGA after that through the end of the model run on 9/28.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (8/26) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive MJO was well past its peak over the KWGA with east anomalies over the bulk of the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to track east through 9/7 with east anomalies continuing unchanged while moving east. The Active MJO was starting to build in the west and is to push to the dateline on 9/12 and holding there through 10/5 with west anomalies reaching almost to the dateline 9/17-9/26. A weak Inactive MJO is to try and develop but doing nothing 10/1-10/11 with west anomalies reaching east to 170E through that period.Then another Active Phase is forecast 10/13-11/7 with west anomalies tracking east to the dateline. A weak Inactive Phase to follow through the end of the model run on 11/29 but with west anomalies holding in the west to the dateline. In general west anomalies are to take over the KWGA starting 9/5 and hold unchanged for the next 3 months with east anomalies isolated to the dateline and points east of there through the end of the model run. This is a significant upgrade. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with a second contour developing 7/14 then fading 8/23 then reappearing 9/25-11/5 with the first contour reaching east to 120E initially then to 130E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 into 8/3 then collapsed to nothing. Is is to return weakly over the dateline 9/20 but not building in meaningful coverage beyond. This is a significant change from previous runs suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was retrograding west to 172E. The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding to 176W. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding to 165W. The 24 degree isotherm was steady at 110W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and neutral to +1 deg in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2 degs was centered subsurface down 125m at 165W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 8/26 clarifies that indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 145W filling while growing in coverage over the entire East Equatorial Pacific. Subsurface cold water was filling the equatorial East Pacific thermocline but not as strong as previous. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (8/26) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 100-135W. This suggests a cooling trend is fading. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (8/21) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July with temps in the core down to -1.5-2.0 degs between 110-135W, but now gone with -0.5 to -1.5 deg anomalies between 90W to 135W. Weak warm anomalies at +0.5 degs were west of the dateline starting at 170W and have been since late May, but pushing east to 140W since early Aug. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage in the west and cooler water dominating the equatorial Pacific, but not as strong as even a month ago.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (8/31) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to 160W and broadest from 95-130W and stronger compared to days past. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (8/31): A thin stream of mostly cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador to 150W. A new La Nina pulse might be developing.
Hi-res Overview: (8/31) A moderate stream of cooler than normal waters were running west over the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to the dateline with the broadest coverage from 85W to 130W and bigger in coverage than days past. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/1) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.617 after reaching a recent low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/1) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.514 and have been falling in pulse since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were 0.0 week of 8/21, -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June and +0.10 July.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is -0.38 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (9/1) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late Aug and -0.75 in Sept then -1.15 degs in Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs late Aug and -0.70 in Sept then down to -0.95 degs in Nov. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/1) the Daily Index was positive at +21.34 and has been solid positive 17 days running. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +7.63 and has been mostly negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching up at -0.95 and negative the last month. It has not been positive yet since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.12 April, -3.00 May, -3.16 in June and -2.97 July. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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