Surf Forecasts and Marine Weather - No Hype - Just the Facts!
See Video Forecast HERE (5/2)
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Video

Google

Stormsurf Mobile App

Create Your Own Surf Forecast
Swell Calculator
Swell Decay Tables
Sea Height Tables
Swell Category Table
Convert from GMT:
 
 to timezone:

---

Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, September 12, 2020 12:39 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.0 - California & 2.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 9/14 thru Sun 9/20

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Stronger New Zealand Gale Pushing East
Weaker Pattern To Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, September 12, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 12.7 secs from 186degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 10.1 secs from 312 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 11.5 secs from 264 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 64.8 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.5 ft @ 10.5 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 13.4 secs from 207 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 15.3 secs from 192 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 16.6 secs from 187 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 10.6 secs from 273 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 10-14 kts. Water temp 54.5 degs (013), 58.8 degs (SF Bar) and 59.0 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (9/12) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high and clean with no wind but fogged in. Protected breaks were flat to thigh high and weak and clean and fogged in early. At Santa Cruz surf was rarely thigh to waist high and clean and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high and clean and weak and inconsistent. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high or so coming from the south and clean but generally weak. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to chest high and lined up and clean but soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and clean and lined up early. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting leftover southern hemi swell with set waves thigh to waist high at top breaks and clean and soft. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves thigh high or so and pretty ruffled early from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (9/12) no real locally generated windswell was occurring in North or Central CA or along the East Shores of the Hawaiian Islands. In California tiny southern hemi swell was arriving originating from a gale that tracked under and east of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (9/3) producing up to 27 ft seas aimed northeast. And small swell was fading in California from a gale that tracked through the Central South Pacific Tues-Wed (9/2) producing up to 42 ft seas aimed east. And another decent system was tracking under New Zealand Fri-Sat (9/12) with up to 43 ft seas aimed east. And lesser energy is to follow under New Zealand Tues-Thurs (9/17) with seas never exceeding 27 ft. Up north nothing of interest is yet forecast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/12) no swell producing fetch was occurring and no swell was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical system are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (9/12) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA all day offering no windswell production potential. On Sun (9/13) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA waters all day with weak low pressure off the coast again offering nothing. No real change on Mon (9/14) with northwest winds 10-15 kts limited to Central CA and no winds for North CA. On Tues (9/15) more of the same is forecast with north winds 10-15 kts for Central CA and 10 kts or less for North CA all day. On Wed (9/16) light northwest winds are forecast all day at 10 kts or less but up to 15 kts near Pt Conception later. No windswell production is forecast. No change on Thurs (9/17) with the low pushing onshore over Cape Mendocino later. Light rain possible there. On Fri (9/18) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts over North and Central CA early but up to 15 kts south of Morro Bay building to 20 kts there later and 15 kts up to Monterey Bay later. On Sat (9/19) small raw northwest windswell is to return with northwest winds 20+ kts over North CA and 15 kts down to Pt Conception early.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively. Freezing level 14,000 ft or higher until 9/17 with it dropping to 10,500 ft and holding into early 9/18, then rising back to 14,000 ft.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (9/12) the southern branch of the jet was pushing east at 130 kts tracking over the southern tip of New Zealand sort of forming a trough there offering a modicum of support for gale development there, then falling southeast and over the Ross Ice Shelf near the Central South Pacific offering nothing there and east of there. Over the next 72 hours the trough under New Zealand is to push east with winds feeding it fading down to 110 kts on Sun AM 99/13) with support for gale development fading. But another trough is to start building over the South Tasman Sea on Mon PM (9/14) being fed by 150 kt winds pushing northeast and making to a point just southeast of New Zealand on Wed AM (9/16) perhaps offering some support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours another more impressive trough is forecast building south of New Zealand on Thurs (9/17) being fed by 150 kts winds pushing well north up to 50S and tracking east to the Central South Pacific late Fri (9/18) offering support for gale development before the trough starts pinching off and weakening. A big ridge is to be right behind sweeping east to the Central South Pacific on Sat (9/19) actively suppressing support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (9/12) swell from a gale that tracked east from southeast of New Zealand was fading in Southern CA (see Small New Zealand Gale below). And one more weak gale followed in the same area generating tiny swell that was starting to hit California (see Weak New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from yet another New Zealand gale is forecast to be produced (see Stronger new Zealand Gale below).

 

Small New Zealand Gale
Another small gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Mon AM (8/31) producing a tiny area of 50 kt west winds with seas building from 29 ft over a tiny area at 54S 180W aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt southwest winds pushed east with seas building to 41 ft over a tiny area at 55S 169.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (9/1) the gale was tracking east producing 45 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas building to 42 ft at 54.5S 164W aimed east. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 51.5S 150.5W aimed east. More of the same occurred Wed AM (9/2) with a decent sized area of 35 kt southwest winds and seas 27 ft at 52S 140W aimed east-northeast. The gale was holding in the evening over the Southeast Pacific with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas rebuilding to 28 ft at 53.5S 130W aimed east. On Thurs AM (9/3) the gale surged some with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 30 ft at 55.5S 126W aimed east. The gale tracked east and out of the CA swell window in the evening.

Southern CA: Dribbles on Sat (9/12) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 198 degrees

 

Weak New Zealand Gale
A gale developed under New Zealand Tues PM (9/1) producing 35 kt southwest winds and starting to get some traction on the oceans surface producing 27 ft seas at 57S 161E aimed east. On Wed AM (9/2) the gale pushed east with a decent sized area of 35 kt southwest winds just south of New Zealand producing 27 ft seas at 58S 173E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale was tracking east with 35 kt southwest winds and seas 26 ft at 58S 179E aimed northeast. The gale was fading Thurs AM (9/3) with southwest fetch fading from 30-35 kts lifting northeast with seas fading from 26 ft at 59S 175W aimed east. The gale faded out from there.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (9/12) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (9/13) at 1.7 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

North CA: Faint signs to arrive on Sat (9/12) at 1.0 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell peaking on Sun (9/13) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Mon (9/14) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

 

Stronger New Zealand Gale
A new gale started building southwest of New Zealand on Fri PM (9/11) producing 45-50 kt west winds over a decent sized area with seas to 43 ft at 56.5S 158E.5 aimed east (218 degs SCal, 216 degs NCal and shadowed by NZ for HI). On Sat AM (9/12) west-southwest winds are to push east over a decent sized area at 40-45 kts with seas 44 ft at 57.5S 169E aimed east (213 degs SCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 212 degs NCal and unshadowed, 197 degs HI). In the evening fetch is to be aimed better northeast at 35-40 kts with seas fading from 39 ft at 58S 180W aimed east-northeast (209 degs SCal and still shadowed, 208 degs NCal and shadowed by Tahiti, 192 degs HI). On Sun AM (9/13) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts over broad area aimed northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 57S 170W aimed northeast (206 degs SCal and unshadowed, 205 degs NCal and still shadowed, 186 degs HI). The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is forecast pushing east through the Southern Tasman Sea on Mon-Tues (9/15) producing seas to 32 ft aimed east at 49S 150E but shadowed by New Zealand relative to California but offering some energy pushing up the Fiji Channel to Hawaii. The gale is to fade with limited energy pushing south of New Zealand on Tues AM (9/15) with seas fading fast from 27 ft at 58S 163E aimed east. Doubtful anything to result even if this does materialize.

A fragmented system is forecast to follow tracking under New Zealand Thurs (9/17) with seas to 27-29 ft aimed east near 50S 180W but quickly fading. Odds are low of that even happening.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Cold Water Pool Solid Across Equatorial Pacific

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.

And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/11) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then moderate to strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial continuing over the Central Pacific and then building to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (9/12) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today extending east over the entirety of the Pacific to nearly Ecuador. The forecast calls for east anomalies building to strong status filling the KWGA on 9/13 continuing to fill it through the end of the forecast period (on 9/19) and also building at strong status over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific to a point south of California though the forecast period. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to continue that way if not weakening for at least the next week.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (9/11) No MJO signal (Active or Inactive) was over the KWGA nor anywhere on the planet. The statistic model indicates a dead MJO pattern for the next week (thru day 7) and then a very weak Active signal is forecast for week 2 limited to the KWGA. The dynamic model suggests a dead MJO signal for the next 2 weeks.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (9/12) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was exceedingly weak over the West Maritime Continent today and is to weakly track east into the West Pacific holding at weak status at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but maybe the Active Phase a little stronger though still at weak status on day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/11) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO phase was fragmented but filling the equatorial Pacific today. The forecast suggest the Inactive Phase is to track east and push into Central America by 9/16. A very weak Active pattern is to traverse the Pacific 9/26-10/16 but so weak as to have only minimal benefit to storm production. A new moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building over the Maritime Continent 10/6 and filling the KWGA 10/16 through the end of the model run on 10/21.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/11) This model depicts a very weak Inactive MJO moving over the KWGA today with moderate plus strength east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates the Inactive Phase of the MJO to be gone in 4-5 days but with moderate to strong east anomalies in control if not building through the end of the model run on 10/9. Overall a long run of easterly anomalies are to take over the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/12 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO fading over the KWGA today and is to track east and out of the KWGA on 9/19 producing solid east anomalies firmly controlling the KWGA and the equatorial Pacific. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is forecast to follow trying to organize in the west on 9/17 but fading only to return 10/10 coherently traversing the KWGA through 11/22 producing modest west anomalies filling the western 70% of the KWGA with solid east anomalies holding east of the dateline. A strong Inactive Phase is to follow 11/14 tracking east through the end of the model run on 12/10 with modest east anomalies taking control of the KWGA and east anomalies holding over the East equatorial Pacific. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today reaching east to a point south of California and is to hold in coverage through the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on 9/13 on the dateline holding through the end of the model run. The western edge of the high pressure bias is to be slowly moving east through the period positioned midway through the KWGA at 160E at the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run while its eastern periphery eases east to 150E. But it is to show no signs of weakening nor moving east. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year are migrating east through the West Pacific today and should continue tracking east then stabilizing setting up over the East Pacific late Sept and holding for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/12) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was steady at 170E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking to 172W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 133W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady and stationary in the West Pacific reaching east to only 170W but no further. There was a large pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/5 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 170E eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C. No warm anomalies were below the surface or at the surface east of the dateline. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/5) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 160W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were weak but still present along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador at -5 cms and then reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except west of the dateline.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (9/11) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and consistent in density over that entire and large area. Markedly cold anomalies were imbedded in that area between the Galapagos to 135W. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina. Weak warm water was off Central America reaching west to the dateline but only north of the equator and fading, remnants of a fading El Nino like pattern. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/11): A cooling trend was positioned from just west of Ecuador over the Galapagos and west to 160W, but weaker than days past. 2 broad pockets of warming were interspersed from Ecuador to 110W. The short term trend is looking like development of a large scale cooling trend centered in the Central and East Equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (9/11) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Peru up to Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/12) Today's temps were warming slightly at -1.678 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(9/12) Temps were stable today at -0.714 after reaching a new low of -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/24 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (9/12) Actual temperatures were in the +0.65 deg range early this year through March, then started falling down to -0.20 in late-May before stabilizing near neutral into late June. They began falling again in July down to -0.75 mid-Aug. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -1.65 degs in late Oct holding in Nov then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.15 degs in late April. We think the dynamic models might be overstating the magnitude of the coming cooling trend for the equatorial Pacific, but maybe not too much.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.52 degs today, and are to fall in early Nov to -0.60 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.35 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by March. The low outlier is a dynamic models (NASA GMAO). But a good plethora of models are now suggesting a developing modest La Nina. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (9/12): The daily index was positive today at 6.30. The 30 day average was rising to +9.16. The 90 day average was rising to 3.56, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was in control and trending towards La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (9/7):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3xOwDqPSQJA&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

270

.
Contact | About | Disclaimer | Privacy
Advertise/Content | Links
Visit Mark Sponsler on Facebook Visit Stormsurf on Instagram Visit Stormsurf on YouTube
Copyright © 2020 STORMSURF - All Rights Reserved
This page cannot be duplicated, reused or framed in another window without express written permission.
But links are always welcome.
Buoys | Buoy Forecast | Bulletins | Models: Wave - Weather - Surf - Altimetry - Snow | Pacific Forecast | QuikCAST | El Nino | Tutorials | Great Circles | Calculator