Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.0 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 82.2 (Barbers Pt), 81.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.0 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 7.7 secs from 81 degrees. Water temp 79.7 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 6.4 secs from 30 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 9.9 secs from 315 degrees. Wind northwest at 16-21 kts. Water temperature 62.2 degs, 59.9 (Harvest 071), 63.9 (Topanga 103), 65.8 (Long Beach 215), 72.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 71.6 (Del Mar 153), 70.9 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.4 ft @ 9.7 secs from 301 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.4 ft @ 9.2 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 17.1 secs from 208 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.3 ft @ 17.3 secs from 204 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 16.7 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 17.3 secs from 201 degrees. Water temperature was 66.2 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 7.1 ft @ 9.1 secs with local windswell 5.3 ft @ 9.3 secs from 313 degrees. Wind north 6-8 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and WNW 5-6 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NE at 6 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.0 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 58.6 (San Francisco 46026), 58.6 (SF Bar 142), 57.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 56.1 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 59.0 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (9/17) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and and weakly lined up and pretty warbled and mushed from modest local northwest wind. Protected breaks had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up and a bit closed out but clean but inconsistent. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the peak on occasion and clean and soft and inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weakly lined up and clean but soft with intermixed warble and no wind. Central Orange County had sets at waist high weakly lined up and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at head high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean but pretty soft when it comes. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up and clean but soft and inconsistent. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean with intermixed sideshore lump. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and weakly lined up and clean and very soft. The East Shore was getting east windswell at waist high and warbled from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (9/17) minimal southern hemi swell was hitting North and Central CA originating from the second and stronger of two gales that formed Sat (9/7) tracking east with up to 38 ft seas aimed east. Nothing else to follow from the southern hemi swell. either north or south. For the North Pacific a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline on Sat (9/21) with 26 ft seas pushing east and fading in the Western Gulf on Mon (9/23) with seas 23 ft aimed east. And perhaps another gale is to follow over the dateline Tues 99/240 with 22 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps a positive change is developing.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (9/17) the jet was consolidated tracking east off the Southern Kuril Islands on the 44N latitude line reaching to the dateline then ridging northeast pushing over the Aleutians into the East Bering Sea then falling hard south forming a trough off British Columbia being fed by 140 kts winds before turning east and pushing inland over the OR-CA border. No real support for gale development indicated but support for weather is indicated for the Pacific Northwest. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to fall south down the US Coast eventually moving inland over Pt Conception on Thurs (9/19) supporting weather pushing down the coast to there. In the west the jet is to is to become more organized with winds 130-140 kts pushing east on the 44N latitude line with a trough starting to develop west of the dateline and building while tracking east being fed by 150 kt winds on Fri 99/20) offering some support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Sat (9/21) more of the same is forecast with the jet generally pushing east off the South Kuril Islands on the 43N latitude line with the aforementioned trough now in the North Gulf of Alaska just south of the East Aleutians being fed by 170 kts winds still offering some support for gale development and pushing east into Canada on Sun (9/22). And another trough is to be developing on the dateline late Sun (9/22) pushing east and into the Gulf on Tues (9/24) being fed by 150 kts winds offering more support for gale formation. And on Tues (9/24) yet another gale is to be developing west of the dateline being fed by 150 kt winds again offering support for gale formation. A decent pattern looks to be setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (9/17) no swell producing weather systems of interest or swell were in the water.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is to develop just west of the dateline on Thurs PM (9/19) producing a small area of 30-35 kts west winds trying to get traction on the oceans surface. On Fri AM (9/20) the gael is to be moving up to the dateline with 30-35 kts west winds and seas 18 ft at 46N 175E aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with west winds 30+ kts with seas 19 ft at 47.5N 180W aimed east. The gael to fade from there. This system is to mainly serve to rough up the oceans surface near the dateline supporting better things to come. No swell to result.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (9/18) northwest winds to be 20 kts well off the North CA coast and 5 kts early for all of North and Central CA but 15 kts near Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to build some at 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Small windswell holding.
Thurs AM (9/19) northwest winds to build to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino but 5 kts for the rest of North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there and all of Central CA. Windswell holding.
Fri AM (9/20) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there over Central CA. No real change in the afternoon. Small northwest windswell continuing.
Sat AM (9/21) northwest winds are to be 20-25 kts early for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. Small windswell holding.
Sun AM (9/22) northwest winds to be 20-25 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts south of there over all of Central CA. No real change in the afternoon. Small northwest windswell holding.
Mon AM (9/23) northwest winds building some to 25-30 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. Fetch building to 30 kts solid for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and northwest 10 kts south of Pt Arena down to Pt Conception. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (9/24) northwest winds to be 30-35 ks off North Cape Mendocino early and northwest 5 kts south of there. Windswell fading some.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 3.0 inches inches respectively all on Wed PM (9/18).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 10.500 ft Tues-Wed (9/18) then falling again to 8.700 ft Thurs AM (9/19) before rising above 14,000 ft later Fri 99/20) and holding beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 40-45 degs late Tues-Wed (9/18) then falling again to 35 degs late Wed into early Thurs (9/19) then rebuilding at 45-50 degs on Fri (9/20), 50-55 degs Sat (9/21) and 55-60 degs beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale passed east under New Zealand producing small swell that is hitting California now (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

New Zealand Gale
On Fri AM (9/6) a gale was developing a bit north of the same area of the ocean roughed up by the primer gale (above) just southwest of New Zealand producing 40-45 kts west winds and seas building from 25 ft at 48.75S 155.5E aimed east. In the evening the gael built while tracking east just south of New Zealand with southwest winds 50-55 kts and seas 35 ft at 50.5S 165.75E aimed east. On Sat AM (9/7) the gale tracked east with southwest winds fading from 45 kts and seas 37-38 ft at 51.75S 175.25E. In the evening the gale was fading while tracking east with west winds 30-35 kts over a decent area and seas fading from 32 ft at 50.75S 177.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading Sun AM (9/8) from 30 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 48.5S 171.75W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Small swell is likely tracking northeast.

Southern CA: Swell peaking on Tues (9/17) at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (9/18) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 217 degrees

North CA: Swell peaking on Tues (9/17) at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell continues on Wed (9/18) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (9/19) from 1.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat AM (9/21) a gael is forecast developing while pushing off the Kuril Islands producing a decent sized area of 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 45.5N 165E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be approaching the dateline with 35 kts northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 45.25N 172E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (9/22) the gale is to be moving over the dateline with 35 kts west winds and seas 23 ft at 45.5N 180W aimed east. In the evening 30-35 kts west winds are to be moving into the far Western Gulf with seas 23 ft at 48.25N 172.75W aimed east. Fetch fading Mon AM (9/23) from 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 48N 165W aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. Maybe some small swell is to be radiating southeast towards Hawaii and the uS west Coast with luck. But the good news is, at least there is to be something moving in the North Pacific.

On Tues AM (9/24) another gale is forecast developing west of the dateline with 35 kts west winds and seas 21 ft at 39.5N 168E aimed southeast. In the evening winds to build to 40 kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 40N 174E aimed east. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 10 Active MJO's produced 9 Kelvin Waves from Dec 2022 through Dec 2023 resulting in El Nino. The CFS model is predicting steady weal easterly anomalies over the KWGA with the low pressure bias moving over the Maritime Continent and a high pressure bias setting up over the dateline region. We are now in a fading El Nino pattern with La Nina forecast and trying to develop over the Pacific. But, the Summer after a strong El Nino Winter in the Pacific it is normal for the Southern hemi storm pattern to be stronger than normal and centered under New Zealand. The net result should be a somewhat above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration originating under New Zealand.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/16) Water sensors are down in the east. Hoping a sensor upgrade is in works. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/17) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests the pattern holding for the next 2 weeks if not weaker 9/24-9/27, then back to moderate east anomalies beyond. A significant Inactive MJO is holding.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/16) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) holding on day 5 of the model and gone with a neutral MJO pattern forecast on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing. These 2 models are now more in sync.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/17) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest on the border between East Maritime Continent and far West Pacific. It is to move slowly east to the East Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts the same thing. Many other models suggest some version of this pattern though BOMM suggests a quick return to the Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/17) This model depicts a strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) moving east over the far West Pacific. The Active Phase is to slowly continue tracking east through the KWGA through 10/2 then quickly fading to modest status and pushing east of the KWGA. A strong Inactive pattern (dry air) to follow building over the KWGA 10/7 and taking control through the end of the model run on 10/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/16) Today the Active Phase was build over the KWGA producing mostly weak east anomalies filling most of the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and east of the KWGA on 10/2 with west anomalies finally developing in the KWGA 9/21-9/27 then collapsing with east anomalies returning filling the KWGA at moderate strength through the end of the model run on 10/14.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was filling the KWGA and pushing east with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO sliding east filling the KWGA through 10/2 with modest west anomalies in control. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow 9/28-10/18 with mostly neutral to weak east anomalies in control. Another Active Phase is to develop in the West starting 11/4 and pushing east through the end of the model run on 12/15 with west anomalies filling the KWGA east to 170E and east anomalies east of there. This continues to be an upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour previously forecast 10/14-11/15 is gone and the prime contour is to reach east to 120E initially then to 130E at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 11/4 with 1 contour over a thin area and holding steady through the end of the model run and never having a second contour line and not significant in coverage. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back reaching east to 165E. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +3 degs in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -3.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 160W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/10 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. And the density of warm anomalies west of there are thinning. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 95W-170W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 130W-145W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/10) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and holding steady today down to -2 degs. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/16) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to 170E and broadest and getting consistent in coverage across its length and stronger compared to days past. This looks like the first real sense of a clear La Nina pattern this year. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/16): A thin stream of weakly cooling waters were on the equator from 90W to 160W. A La Nina pulse appears to be building.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/17) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were generally steady (since 8/7) at -0.645 after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/17) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling steadily to -0.921 and have been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 (week of 9/11) Temps have been near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June and mid-July falling to -0.3 degs in mid-Aug.
Forecast (9/17) - Temps to fall to -0.50 mid-Sept and then -0.9 later in Oct, peaking down at -1.10 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs Sept and -0.80 in Oct then down to barely -0.95 degs in Dec. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/16) the Daily Index was negative at -5.17 and has been negative the last 10 days, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at +8.13 and has been split between positive and negative the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching falling at +0.23 and mostly negative the last month. This is the first positive value (on 9/5) since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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