Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.0 ft @ 16.0 secs from 197 degrees. Water temp 81.9 (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 6.3 secs from 68 degrees. Water temp 79.5 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 5.9 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 6.0 secs from 36 degrees. Water temp 80.8 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 314 degrees. Wind northwest at 6-10 kts. Water temperature 61.2 degs, 62.4 (Harvest 071), 63.5 (Topanga 103), 64.9 (Long Beach 215), 70.2 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 67.7 (Del Mar 153), 70.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.2 ft @ 9.6 secs from 316 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.3 ft @ 10.0 secs from 270 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 221 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 0.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 194 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.6 ft @ 12.4 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 12.6 secs from 199 degrees. Water temperature was 68.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 11.1 secs with local windswell 5.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 325 degrees. Wind southeast 0-2 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and W 2-3 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 57.2 (San Francisco 46026), 57.4 (SF Bar 142), 57.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 57.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 60.1 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (9/22) in North and Central CA waves were waist to near chest high and somewhat lined up and clean but a bit closed out. Protected breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up if not closed out and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and real clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee to thigh high on the sets and lined up and real clean with decent form but inconsistent. Central Orange County had sets at occasionally thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and real clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at knee to thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but very soft. North San Diego had sets at knee high and weakly lined up and clean. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had some knee to thigh high waves and weakly lined up and clean and very soft. The East Shore was getting minimal east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (9/22) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii other than locally generated windswell. But the forecast looks good with a currently traversing the North Pacific west of the dateline on Sat (9/21) with 30 ft seas pushing east and over the Western and Northern Gulf on Sun-Tues (9/24) with seas 24-25 ft aimed east before fading while approaching the Central Canadian Coast. Perhaps another system is to develop on the dateline on Sun (9/29) with 24 ft seas aimed southeast. And down south perhaps a tiny gale to develop east of New Zealand on Wed (9/25) with 31 ft seas aimed well northeast. There's finally some hope.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday AM (9/22) the jet was consolidated tracking east off the Southern Kuril Islands running east on the 44N latitude line falling into a gentle trough over the dateline being fed by 180 kt winds supporting gale formation then gently lifting east-northeast reaching up to the far Eastern Aleutians before pushing up to but not yet impacting British Columbia. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to move into the Northern Gulf on Mon-Tues (9/24) still being fed by 170 kts winds and supporting gale formation. If anything the trough is to redevelop off Vancouver Island on Tues (9/24) and pushing inland 24 hours later perhaps supporting local weather there. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to be weaker but still running more or less flat east on the 45N latitude line with winds to 150 kts over the Gulf but no clear troughing indicated and far weaker off Japan not really offering support for gale formation. But on later Sat (9/28) winds to build to 150 kts from Japan over the dateline and then 110-130 kts on into the US-Canadian border with a trough developing Sun (9/29) west of the dateline supporting gale formation. It sure seems like a Fall pattern is starting to set up.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (9/22) swell from a gale tracking east over the dateline was bound for Hawaii and CA (see North Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

North Pacific Gale
A small gale developed just east of the Kuril Islands Fri PM (9/20) producing a small area of 40 kt northwest winds trying to get traction on the oceans surface. On Sat AM (9/21) the gale was approaching the dateline with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 28 ft at 45.5N 167E aimed east. The gale tracked east in the evening with west winds 40 kts as it crossed over the dateline and seas 30 ft at 45N 175E aimed east. The gale faded some Sun AM (9/22) while moving over the Northwestern Gulf with a broad area of 30-35 kts west winds and seas 26 ft at 45.25N 172.75W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gale to track east with winds fading from 30-35 kts and seas 23-24 ft at 49.75N 159.5W aimed east and southeast. The gale is to be fading over the Northern Gulf on Mon AM (9/23) with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 23 ft at 50.75N 151.75W aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts impacting north Canada with seas fading from 23 ft at 53.5N 145W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something worth monitoring.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival at sunset on Tues (9/24) at 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft). Swell builds over night peaking Wed AM (9/25) at 3.6 ft @ 14 secs early (5.0 ft) then starting to fade in the afternoon. Residuals on Thurs (9/26) fading from 2.5 ft @ 12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320-325 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Wed (9/25) building to 4.5 ft @ 14-15 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell holding Thurs AM (9/26) at 4.3 ft @ 13 secs early (5.5 ft) then fading in the afternoon. Windswell taking over after that. Swell Direction: 305 degrees and shadowed in the SF Bay Area

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (9/23) northwest winds building some to 25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest 10 kts from Pt Arena southward to Pt Conception. Fetch fading at 20-25 kts mainly off Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and northwest 5 kts south of Pt Arena down to Pt Conception. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (9/24) northwest winds to be 20 ks off North Cape Mendocino early and northwest 5 kts for all of nearshore North CA the whole way down to Pt Conception. Fetch fading to 15 kts or less in the afternoon all well off the North CA coast with south winds 1-5 kts over Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Wed AM (9/25) winds to be 5 kts or less nearshore for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (9/26) northwest winds to 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. A gale low is to be impacting Vancouver Island. In the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15+ kts for all of North and Central CA. No real windswell forecast.
Fri AM (9/27) a gradient again sets up with northwest winds 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15 kts for the rest of North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 30 kts for more of North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell building.
Sat AM (9/28) northwest winds build to 30-35 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change forecast but for Central CA perhaps a south eddy flow to set up at 5 kts. Windswell building.
Sun AM (9/29) the gradient evaporates wit northwest winds 20 kts off Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts for Pt Arena southward. Windswell fading fast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 0 inches inches respectively.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12.000 ft into Wed afternoon (9/25) then rising above 14,000 ft. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 50-55 degs from today forward if not 55-60 degrees starting Fri (9/27) and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is hitting Hawaii or California and no swell is in the water propagating northeast from the Southern Hemi.

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing Tues PM (9/25) off North New Zealand producing south winds at 40 kts with seas building from 24 ft at 46S 175W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (9/26) the gael is to be lifting northeast with 40-45 kts southwest winds over a small area and seas 31 ft at 40S 170.5W aimed northeast. Fetch fading fast in the evening to 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 37S 166W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (9/24) another gale is forecast developing just off the Pacific Northwest producing 30-35 kts northwest winds and seas building from 17 ft at 45.5N 135W aimed southeast. The gael is to be impacting North British Columbia in the evening. This system is to be too close to the coast to result in meaningful swell relative to North CA.

On Sun AM (9/29) another gale is forecast developing west of the dateline producing 35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 43N 174E aimed east. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral Trying Weakly to Turn to La Nina
Models Waffle on La Nina Strength Ahead
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/21) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and weak east over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/22) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests this pattern holding more or less for the next week though weak west anomalies are to develop on the dateline during that timeframe, then east anomalies are to build to near strong status 9/30 through the end of the model run on 10/8. A significant Inactive MJO is to be holding.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/21) Currently a weak Active MJO pattern (wet air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO (wet air) gone on day 5 of the model run with a weak Inactive phase developing in the far West KWGA on day 10 and building slightly on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing but with the Inactive Phase building from moderate to near strong status on days 10 and 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/22) - The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Pacific. It is to move slowly east to Africa over the next 2 weeks and split between weak and moderate. The dynamic model depicts a version of the same thing but building to moderate strength over Africa 9 days out and then fading to weak status moving to the West Indian Ocean 2 weeks out. Many other models suggest some version of this same pattern though all the long range models (1 month) suggest a quick return to the Maritime Continent.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/22) This model depicts a weak MJO pattern with neither wet nor dry air in control. No real change is forecast but with dry air setting up over the East Pacific starting 10/7 through the end of the model run on 11/1 with barely wet air holding over the KWGA.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/21) Today the Active Phase was building over the KWGA from 150E and points east of there producing mostly weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Active Phase tracking east and east of the KWGA on 10/2 but with west anomalies trying to develop in the east KWGA 9/24-9/29 then collapsing with east anomalies returning. The Inactive MJO is to develop 10/2 filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/19 with east anomalies building to near strong status 10/2 through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/19) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was filling the KWGA and pushing east with west anomalies mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active MJO sliding east filling the KWGA through 10/1 with modest west anomalies in control. A strong Inactive Phase is to follow 9/29-10/25 with moderate east anomalies in control. Another Active Phase is to develop in the west starting 10/17 and pushing east through 12/3 with west anomalies filling the KWGA east to 170E through 11/8 and east anomalies east of there then west anomalies filling the Pacific after that. This continues to be an upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/17-11/15. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/17 with 1 contour over a thin area and holding steady through the end of the model run and never having a second contour line and not significant in coverage and if anything fading the last days of the model run. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (9/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 170E. The 29 degree isotherm was stable at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific but +3 degs in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -5.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 155W reaching to the surface at 160W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/15 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 150W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline and neutral to the dateline. The residuals of the warm pool is quickly collapsing. The density of warm anomalies west of there are building limited to 160E and points west of there. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/15) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 110W-170W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 130W-150W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/15) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and holding steady today down to -2 degs centered over a small area at 140W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/21) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream has built on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and broadest from the Galapagos to 180W and getting consistent in coverage across its length and stronger compared to weeks past. This looks like the first real sense of a clear La Nina pattern this year. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/22): A thin stream of cooling waters were on the equator from Ecuador to 160W. A La Nina pulse appears to be building.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/22) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were generally steady (since 8/7) at -0.951 after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/22) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -1.049 but have been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 (week of 9/11) Temps have been near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (9/22) - Temps to fall to -0.50 late-Sept and then -0.80 later in Oct, peaking down at -1.05 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.50 degs Sept and -0.75 in Oct then down to barely -0.95 degs in Dec. This is an upgrade. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (9/22) the Daily Index was negative at -1.07 today and has been positive 5 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at +4.15 and has been mostly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching upwards at +1.46 and mostly neutral the last month. This is the first positive value (on 9/5) since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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