Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 16.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 16.5 secs from 192 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 80.8 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.1 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.6 secs from 292 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 13.1 secs from 315 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 5.1 ft @ 9.8 secs from 313 degrees. Wind northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 60.3 (Harvest 071), 64.4 (Topanga 103), 62.1 (Long Beach 215), 64.0 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 61.0 (Del Mar 153), 65.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.8 ft @ 10.0 secs from 319 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 3.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 277 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.2 ft @ 9.6 secs from 273 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 10.1 secs from 265 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 10.5 secs from 244 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 17.1 secs from 209 degrees. Water temperature was 61.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 8.0 secs from 319 degrees. Wind northwest 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and ESE 2-3 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NW at 4 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 58.3 (San Francisco 46026), 59.9 (SF Bar 142), 59.2 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 59.2 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 61.2 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/1) in North and Central CA waves were chest to shoulder high and lined up and a bit closed out and clean but with some slight intermixed warble. Protected breaks had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up if not a bit closed out and fairly clean but with some texture on top and mushed. At Santa Cruz surf was flat to knee high and clean and soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were knee high on the sets and lined up and clean and weak but fogged in. Central Orange County had some sets at waist high or so and somewhat lined up and soft and clean with fog early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean with fog on it early. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up with decent form and clean but fogged in early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and pretty closed out and fairly clean early but with alot of sideshore warble. The South Shore had waist to near chest high sets on the peak and lined up and clean but soft. The East Shore was minimal east windswell at knee to thigh high and chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/1) swell was hitting Hawaii from a tiny gale developed east of New Zealand on Wed (9/25) with 31 ft seas aimed well northeast. That swell is pushing towards California too. And another developed behind that lifting northeast from under New Zealand on Sat-Sun (9/29) with seas to 29 ft. And another is forecast tracking east over the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (10/4) with seas 33-34 ft then lifting hard northeast Sat-Sun (10/6) with seas 27 ft building to 34 ft. Up north swell is radiating towards Hawaii and California from a gale previously in the Gulf lifting hard northeast Sun-Mon (9/30) with seas 26-30 ft. And yet another gale is forecast falling from the Bering Sea over the Northwestern Gulf on Fri-Sat (10/5) with 28-30 ft seas aimed southeast. There continues to be momentum in the atmosphere both north and south.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday AM (10/1) the jetstream was consolidated ridging hard north over Kamchatka tracking over the West Bering Sea then falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf forming a trough while lifting northeast over the Northern Gulf being fed by 150 kt winds offering support for gale formation there. Over the next 72 hours this pattern is to hold with another trough falling southeast through the Northern Gulf on Thurs (10/3) being fed by 150 kt winds offering some support for gale development.Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (10/4) the jet over the West Bering Sea is to still have winds 170 kts and is to start falling southeast over the far Northwestern Gulf falling south of the Aleutians with winds to 170 kts carving out a nice trough there on Sat (10/5) supporting gale formation tracking east into Mon (10/7). And by Tues (10/8) the jet is to be mostly south of the Aleutians reaching down to 40N over the Gulf with a ridge reaching up and touching the Aleutians on the dateline then falling gently southeast from there but winds mostly 90 kts not offering much in terms of support for gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/1) swell was radiating southeast towards Hawaii and California from a gale previously lifting northeast over the Northeastern Gulf (see Northeast Gulf Gale below).

Northeast Gulf Gale
On Sun AM (9/29) a gale started developing 1200 nmiles north-northwest of Hawaii with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 22 ft at 40N 166W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was lifting northeast with 40 kt northwest winds and seas 27 ft at 41N 157W aimed east and southeast. On Mon AM (9/30) the gale was lifting northeast fast with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 26-28 ft at 48N 145W aimed east and 23 ft at 47.5N 147W aimed east and southeast At the US West Coast. In the evening the gale lifting north with west winds 55 kts with seas building to 35 ft at 53N 144.25W aimed only at Canada but with 30 ft seas at 52N 146W aimed southeast and barely on the 319 degree track to North CA. On Tues AM (10/1) west winds were fading from 45 kts holding stationary in the Northern Gulf with seas 37 ft all east of the NCal swell window. This system to be well east of our forecast area after that moving inland over Canada. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival late on Tues (10/1) building to 1.9 ft @ 12 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (10/2) from 2.7 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/3) fading from 2.0 ft @ 10 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 moving to 255 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (10/2) building to 3.7 ft @ 14 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/3) from 5.0 ft @ 11 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (10/4) from 3.8 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 295 moving to 310 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (10/2) northwest winds hold at 25-30 kts limited to Cape Mendocino with northwest winds 5 kts from Bodega Bay southward. In the afternoon north winds building to 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts down to the Golden Gate and 10-15 kts south to Pt Conception. Windswell building some.
Thurs AM (10/3) the gradient fades some with northwest winds 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 15 kts down to Bodega Bay. Northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the gradient collapses with northwest winds 15 kts west of Cape Mendocino and northwest 5-10 kts from most of the North and Central CA coast. No windswell forecast.
Fri AM (10/4) northwest winds to be 10 kts for all of North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA No windswell expected.
Sat AM (10/5) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA early and 10+ kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA. No windswell forecast.
Sun AM (10/6) northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. No windswell forecast.
Mon AM (10/7) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Minimal windswell developing.
Tues AM (10/8) northwest winds to be building at near 20 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Limited windswell expected.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0 , 0 and 0 inches inches respectively. Precip limited a good bit north of the CA-Oregon border.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 14.000 ft or greater until Fri (10/4) with it falling to 12,500 ft and holding steady beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 55-60 degrees through Tues (10/8) then falling to 45-50 degrees starting Wed (10/9) and beyond. A slow cooling trend looks possible consistent with the change in seasons.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Tiny swell is radiating northeast from a gale previously just east on North New Zealand (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs AM (10/3) a gale is forecast developing over the deep Central South Pacific southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 33 ft at 62.5S 180W aimed east. In the evening southwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 61.5S 168W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (10/4) the gale is to be lifting northeast with 35 kts southwest winds and seas 29-30 ft at 59.75S 157.25W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 53S 154W aimed northeast. Fetch is to rebuild on Sat AM (10/5) producing southwest winds at 40-45 kts and seas 32 ft at 49S 150.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to be 35-40 kts with seas 31 ft at 43.25S 140.75W aimed north-northeast. On Sun AM (10/6) southwest winds to be fading from 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 44S 135W aimed northeast. In the evening the gael is to track east with 45 kt west winds and seas 34 ft at 45.25S 122.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fall southeast and east of the Southern CA swell window after that. Something to monitor.

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed Tues PM (9/25) off North New Zealand producing south winds at 45 kts with seas building from 26 ft at 46S 174W aimed northeast over a tiny area. On Wed AM (9/26) the gale was lifting northeast with 40 kt southwest winds over a small area and seas 31 ft at 41S 171W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading fast in the evening from 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 38S 166W aimed northeast. Tiny swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: Swell fading on Wed (10/2) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/3) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (10/4) to 1.4 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (10/5) from 1.7 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (10/4) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (10/5) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction: 220 degrees.

Another New Zealand Gale
On Sat AM (9/28) a gale started developing south of New Zealand producing southwest winds at 40-45 kts and seas building from 26 ft at 56.75S 166.5E aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts and seas 29 ft over a small area at 56S 173.5E aimed northeast. The gale is to grow in coverage while lifting north on Sun AM (9/29) with 35-40 kt south winds and seas 27 ft at 52.25S 177W aimed northeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 48.5S 169.75W aimed northeast. Mon AM (9/30) the gale was pushing well north while fading with 30-35 kt south winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 43S 166W aimed north. Swell is pushing northeast.

Oahu: Swell arrival late Sat (10/5) at 1.0 ft @ 18-19 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building Sun (10/6) pushing 2.7 ft @ 15-16 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell holding Mon (10/7) at 2.9 ft @ 14 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Tues (10/8) from 2.4 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/9) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction 190 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/8) to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (10/9) to 1.8 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell builds some more on Thurs (10/10) to 2.1 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (10/11) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 moving to 211 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/8) to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell building on Wed (10/9) to 2.0 ft @ 16 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell builds some more on Thurs (10/10) to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (10/11) from 2.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 216 moving to 212 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (10/4) a gale is to be falling southeast from the Bering Sea into the Northwestern Gulf with northwest winds 40-45 kts over a building area and seas building from 30 ft at 52N 170W aimed southeast. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds hold barely in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 29 ft over a decent sized area at 51N 164W targeting Hawaii and the mainland. Fetch fading Sat AM (10/5) with northwest winds 35-40 kts clear of the Eastern Aleutians and seas 27 ft at 51N 164.75W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds fall southeast fading from 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 47.5N 160W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/30) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/1) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests moderate east anomalies are to build in coverage filling the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 10/16. The Inactive MJO continues.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/30) Currently a moderate Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts it fading some on day 5 of the model run then collapsing with a neutral pattern on days 10 and 15 of the model run. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing but not turning neutral till day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/1) - The models depicts the Active Phase was weak over Africa. The statistic mode has it moving slowly east to the Central Maritime Continent over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts then same thing 2 weeks out. The long range models suggest it moving to the West Pacific and very weak 1 month out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/1) This model depicts a modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) in control of the KWGA. It is to fade and be gone from the KWGA by 10/11 with a modest Active MJO (wet air) setting up on 10/16 holding through 10/31 then easing east of the KWGA while building. A weak Inactive Phase (dry air) is to again start moving over the KWGA on 11/5 holding through the end of the model run on 11/10.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/26) Stale Data - Today the Active Phase was all but gone over the East KWGA with mostly weak east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has east anomalies returning filling the KWGA at modest strength starting 9/28. The Inactive MJO is to develop 10/3 tracking east through the KWGA through 10/15 with east anomalies strong 103-1010 then fading to moderate strength through the end of the model run on 10/24 with west anomalies starting to weakly build over the West KWGA on 10/17.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/1) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Active MJO was all but gone over the KWGA while pushing east with east anomalies in control. The forecast indicates a moderate Inactive Phase forecast now through 10/25 with moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA. Another Active Phase is to develop in the west starting 10/17 and pushing east through 12/26 with west anomalies filling the KWGA (starting as early as 10/20 over a small area then expanding) and east to 170E and east anomalies east of there but weakening over time. West anomalies are to be filling the Pacific 11/18 with a weak MJO pattern indicated. This continues to be an upgrade from model runs on mid-August and earlier. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/17-11/14. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/17 with 1 contour over a thin area holding unchanged through the end of the model run but never having a second contour line. This is a major upgrade from previous runs (since Aug) suggesting La Nina much weaker than previous forecasts if not bordering on ENSO neutral.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/1) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was pushing east to 175E. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 167W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but very shallow in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and mostly neutral in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 170W reaching to the surface between 120W to 165W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/25 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 170W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline and neutral to the dateline. The density of warm anomalies west of there are building limited to 170W and points west of there. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/25) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to the dateline with -10 cms between 110W-155W with a pocket of -15 cm anomalies were at 125W-145W and -20 cms at 135W. This suggests a cooling trend is building. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/25) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug. Then cool anomalies again rebuilt over the equatorial Pacific early Sept from 180W to Ecuador and were building still today with a very cold pocket at -2.0-2.5 at 140W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with warm water limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/30) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was limited on the equator from 120W to 165W. The current pulse of soling surface waters are fading. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to neutral and perhaps La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/30): A couple of weak pockets of cooling were indicated between 110W to 150W but mostly warming temps were indicated from Ecuador to the dateline. A La Nina pulse seems to be fading.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/1) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rebounding at -1.084 after falling hard to -1.468 (9/27), Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/1) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps have stabilized at -0.741 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.5 degs (week of 9/18) the first time solidly negative. Previously temps were near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then 0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug and -0.5 in late Sept. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (10/1) - Temps to fall to -0.95 mid-Oct, peaking down at -1.25 degs in late Nov 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.75 in Oct then down to -1.05 degs in Dec. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The August 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.273 degs today and is the 3rd month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.393 in Sept (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.492 in Nov then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.616 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.294 in Jan. Both these projections are higher than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/1) the Daily Index was positive at +1.87 today and has been for 5 days running, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling at -0.29 and has been positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was slowly inching downwards -0.37 and neutral the last month. Thee first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.