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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2020 5:32 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/5 thru Sun 10/11

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small SHemi Swell Hitting HI
NPac Goes Quiet

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, October 6, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 15.8 secs from 202 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 330 degrees. Water temp 81.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.5 ft @ 10.0 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 9.9 secs from 192 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 70.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.0 ft @ 10.5 secs from 245 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.9 ft @ 10.1 secs from 215 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 3.2 ft @ 9.7 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.5 ft @ 9.8 secs from 211 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 10.2 secs from 231 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 6-12 kts. Water temp 52.0 degs (013), 59.0 degs (SF Bar) and 56.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (10/6) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at chest high and warbled and soft with no wind but fogged in early. Protected breaks were waist high and weak and soft but clean and also fogged in. At Santa Cruz occasional sets were chest high or so and weak but clean and slow with fog. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and clean and weak and inconsistent. Central Orange County had set waves at waist to chest high coming from the south and lined up and clean but weak and inconsistent. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves up to head high on the peak and clean and lined up when it came. North San Diego had sets at waist high and clean and lined up but inconsistent and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some chest high sets with clean conditions. The East Shore was flat and clean early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (10/6) Southern California was still getting some leftover swell from what was Hurricane Marie. North California was getting leftover Gulf windswell. Hawaii was getting minimal swell from one last small system that developed under New Zealand Mon-Tues (9/29) producing up to 39 ft seas over a tiny area aimed well north. Minimal energy is forecast making it to CA. Beyond a weak gale is tracking under New Zealand Mon-Wed (10/7) producing 28-30 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And maybe another system is to form in the far Southeast Pacific Sun-Mon (10/12) producing 28-34 ft seas aimed northeast. But the North Pacific is taking a break. Maybe a weak weather system is to produce 15-18 ft seas in the Gulf Fri-Sat (10/10) but that's it.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (10/6) the jet was consolidated ridging solidly northeast off Japan to the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians with winds to 180 kts then falling hard south into a pinched trough over the Western Gulf offering no support for gale production then ridging northeast again pushing over the Central Canadian Coast. Over the next 72 hours the pinched trough is to push east fast and remain pinched fading in the Eastern Gulf on Thurs (10/8) offering nothing. At that time the jet is to be strong with winds near 190 kts running due east up at 47N late Fri (10/9) perhaps forming a small trough off Oregon on Sat (10/10) perhaps offering s short window for gale development. Beyond 72 hours starting Sun (10/11) the jet is to be flowing due east on the 43N latitude line from Japan eastward with embedded pockets of wind energy to 150 kts pushing into the Pacific Northwest but with no troughs forecast with most energy pushing into the Gulf on Tues (10/13) but with no trough indicated offering no support for gale development. But more wind energy is to be building over Japan.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/6) swell was fading out in California from a gale previously in the Gulf of Alaska (see Final Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. A low pressure system is forecast tracking east through the Northern Gulf of Alaska Thurs-Fri (10/9) but only producing 25-30 kt west winds winds seas 16-18 ft aimed east. Maybe some windswell to result for the US West Coast.

 

Final Gulf Gale
Another small gale developed 1100 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Wed AM (9/30) producing 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 21 ft at 37N 167W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with 35-40 kt north winds and seas to 23 ft at 37N 159W aimed southeast. The gale was lifting northeast Thurs AM (10/1) with 40-45 kt northwest winds and seas 25 ft at 43.5N 152W aimed east. Fetch momentarily built in the evening to 45 kts from the west with seas 34 ft at 47.5N 149W aimed east. The gale tracked north from there with no fetch aimed anywhere but at Alaska after that.

North CA: Dribbles on Tues (10/6) fading from 3.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 292-302 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored. Swell from what was Hurricane Marie is hitting California (see below).

Hurricane Marie was positioned 1100 nmiles south of San Diego CA on Thurs AM (10/1) tracking west-northwest with max sustained winds of 90 kts. No swell was radiating north. Marie slowly strengthened while holding on a west-northwest peaking Fri PM (10/2) with winds 115 kts (132 mph) about 1050 nmiles southwest of San Diego and held into Sat AM (10/3). still tracking west-northwest. Low odds for small swell radiating towards the US West Coast. Marie is to continue on the same heading while slowly fading all but gone by Tues AM (10/6).

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues (10/6) from 3.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (10/7) fading from 2.3 ft @ 10 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 turning to 215 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Tues (10/6) from 3.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Wed (10/7) fading from 2.7 ft @ 11 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 turning to 195 degrees

 

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/6) calm to light northwest winds at 5-10 kts (later) were in control early for North and Central CA and are to prevail over the state all day. No change on Wed or Thurs (10/8). Fri (10/9) light winds are forecast early for all of North and Central CA with low pressure approaching the state from the west with winds turning south at 15 kts for the Pt Arena area later and south to 5 kts down to the Golden Gate as a front moves closet. Sat (10/10) light southwest winds are forecast at 5 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA building to 15 kts from the north for North CA later. Light rain developing early for most of North and Central CA early then fading down south and limited to Monterey and points north of there later. Sun (10/11) high pressure is to build in with north winds 20 kts for all of Central CA early holding all day and northwest winds 10 kts for North CA down to Bodega Bay early then building to 20 kts for all of North CA later. No precip is forecast for the state. Monday (10/12) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North and Central CA fading to 15 kts later. On Tuesday (10/13) northwest winds are forecast at 10-15 kts centered between Pt Arena and Monterey Bay early.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level right at 12,500 ft through 10/9 falling to 7,000-8000 ft the night of 10/10 then rising back to 12,500 ft 24 hours later and holding.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (10/6) swell from a gale that developed under New Zealand was hitting Hawaii and radiating towards CA (see New Zealand Gale below)

Over the next 72 hours a gale developed under New Zealand Mon PM (10/5) producing 40 kt west-southwest winds with seas building to 28 ft at 53.5S 170E aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (10/6) the gael moved with with 35-40 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 50.5S 173.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to start building over the Southeast Pacific at 40 kts with seas 27-28 ft over a small area at 52S 151.5W aimed east. On Wed AM (10/7) a small area of 40-45 kt west winds is forecast with seas 33 ft at 52.5S 139W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading and falling southeast after that. Something to monitor.

 

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand on Sun AM (9/27) producing 45-55 kt south winds and seas starting to develop. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds were just off the north edge of the Ross Ice Shelf pushing north producing seas building to 39 ft at 57S 172E aimed north. On Mon AM (9/28) south winds were fading from 40 kts holding in place and seas 28-30 ft near 55S 178E aimed north. Fetch faded some in the evening at 35 kts from the south with 25 ft seas fading at 55S 172E aimed north. By Tues AM (9/29) fetch was gone. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Swell peaking late on Tues (10/6) at 1.9 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Wed (10/7) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/8) from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 215 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Thurs (10/8) building to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell building some on Fri (10/9) pushing 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell continues on Sat (10/10) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft) early. Swell is to be gone after that. Swell Direction: 214 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the models suggest a small gale is to form just off Washington on Sun AM (10/11) producing 30-35 kts west winds and seas building to 18 ft at 46N 142W aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds are to be almost impacting Washington with 22 ft seas at 47N 132W aimed east and north of the North Ca swell window. Will monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours there's hints of a gale developing in the Southeast Pacific on Sat PM (10/10) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building to 27 ft at 53S 148W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/11) 35-40 kt southwest winds to lift northeast with 31 ft seas at 49S 138W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to fade from 30-35 kts over a large area with seas 27 ft at 46S 128W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (10/12) west winds to build behind at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 51S 125W aimed east. In the evening a building fetch of 40+ kt west winds is forecast mostly east of the SCal swell window with seas 34 ft at 52.5S 120W aimed east. The gael is to be east of the SCal swell window after that. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Again Building

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were modest east over the East equatorial continuing over the Central Pacific and then building to moderate easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/6) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding unchanged and filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 10/13 and if anything building to strong status on 10/9 and holding while building east over the Central Pacific the last day of the model run. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to only weaken more later in the forecast period.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/5) A modest Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to build to moderate status on days 5, 10, and day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests much the same but with the Active Phase building steadily to strong status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/6) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Maritime Continent today and is to collapse while tracking east into the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to hold stationary over the next 15 days but strengthening steadily to moderate strength the last day of the model run.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/5) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. The weak Active pattern is to push east and into Central America on 10/30 having almost no obvious benefit to storm production. A very weak Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 10/20 tracking to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 11/14. At that time a weak Active signal is suggested over the far West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/5) This model depicts no coherent MJO signal today but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates no coherent MJO signal forecast but with east anomalies holding solid over the KWGA building to strong status on 10/19 and holding through the end of the model run on 11/2.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/6 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a neutral MJO trending Inactive over the KWGA today with east anomalies still controlling the area. A weak Inactive MJO signal is forecast 10/7-10/15 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA and with somewhat stronger east anomalies setting up east of the dateline filling the area to Ecuador. The Active Phase is to try and return on 10/14 and somewhat coherent holding in the KWGA into 11/25 producing only weak west anomalies in pockets in the far west KWGA near 11/1 but mostly east anomalies filling the KWGA and east anomalies holding over the East Pacific. A strong Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/15 tracking east through 12/15 producing solid east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 12/7-1/3 with weak to modest west anomalies over the western KWGA but with east anomalies holding over the dateline and all of the East Pacific. East anomalies are now in control of the KWGA and the Eastern Pacific and are forecast to hold through the end of December. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run and no longer forecast to ease east. At that time a third contour line is to develop starting 12/16. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. And a second contour line is forecast developing in its core on 12/15. Its core is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and should stabilize there for the foreseeable future. The trend is turning towards La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 162E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding west to 178E today. The 24 deg isotherm was stable at 135W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs near 125W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of there and bubbling up to the surface over that entire area. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/30 indicates the cool water bubble at depth was stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -4.5C but with cool anomalies even west to there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 165W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/30) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W with negative anomalies -5 to -15 cms. Negative anomalies were weak but still present along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador at -5 cms and then reaching north up to Baja and into Southern CA. But looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Baja south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/5) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W and showing some signs of trying to rebuild today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial PAcific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/5): A mix of warming and cooling pockets were positioned on the equator from just west of Ecuador over the Galapagos and west to 160W but the balance was definitely trending towards the cooler pockets.
Hi-res Overview: (10/5) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/6) Today's temps were down slightly at -1.8360 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/6) Temps were falling slightly at -0.838 today after dropping to -0.945 on 9/22, the lowest so far in the La Nina event. The previous low was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Before that temps were stable between 6/27-7/24 at near 0.0. And before that temps were rising after bottoming out down at -0.595 on 5/27. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/6) Today the model indicates temps at -1.3 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.2 degs in late Nov holding in early Dec then beginning to rise in later Dec, rebuilding up to -0.5 degs in May. This is begging to look like a 2 year event.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/6): The daily index was positive today at 12.83. The 30 day average was steady at +9.92. The 90 day average was rising to 8.18, suggesting a La Nina pattern was developing. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/4):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHVhXGwXMhI&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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