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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, October 10, 2019 5:34 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 3.0 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/7 thru Sun 10/13

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

All Eyes On West Pacific 
Small New Zealand Swell Tracking Northeast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, October 10, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 190 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 8.6 secs from 239 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.1 secs from 185 degrees. Wind at the buoy was calm. Water temperature 66.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @ 10.1 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.8 secs from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.4 secs from 200 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 11.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 8.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 322 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was north at 4-8 kts. Water temp 50.9 degs (013) and 56.1 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW

Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/10) in North and Central CA local north windswell was producing waves at waist to rarely chest high and soft but clean with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz bare minimal background swell was producing waves at thigh to rarely waist high and clean but soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura local windswell was producing set waves at thigh to maybe waist high and clean but weak. In North Orange Co waves were waist high on the sets and soft with some texture on top. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks had waves at chest high on the sets and clean and lined up but inconsistent. North San Diego had surf at waist high on the sets and clean and lined up but soft and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting some waist to chest high waves and clean and lined up when it came. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves thigh high or less and pretty warbled from modest southeast trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (10/6) in California and Hawaii no swell of interest was hitting either location. But for Hawaii a cutoff low produced a steady stream of 17-18 ft seas targeting the Islands well Hawaii Thurs-Sat (10/5) with small windswell radiating south and expected to arrive this afternoon. And down south a small gale developed under New Zealand lifting northeast Sat-Sun (10/6) with up to 37 ft seas over a small area. Small swell is radiating northeast. And maybe one more even weaker gale is forecast for the South Central Pacific on Sat 910/12). The transition from Summer towards Fall is not being particularly productive, likely due to the Inactive Phase of the MJO. but once that clears out, perhaps better things are to come.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (10/10) the jetstream was somewhat consolidated in the west but weak and ill defined tracking east off Japan to a point just east of the dateline then falling south into a small, weak and pinched trough 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii and only offering weak odds to support low pressure development. East of the the jet was ridging hard north up into Alaska and then inland over interior Canada offering no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. In all a pretty quiet pattern was indicated. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to get progressively more pinched and holding it's ground while winds build to 190 kts pushing over the North Kuril Islands but not resulting in any trough development.  Beyond 72 hours things are to get more interesting with a small trough starting to set up in the Northern Gulf on Mon (10/14) being fed by 120 kt winds quickly tracking east and in and of itself not offering much, but possibly clearing the way for something better developing in the west. Wind energy is to be building from 160 kts over the Kuril Islands and building steadily east while consolidating the jet over the entirety of the North Pacific by Wed (10/16) with the flow running due east over the 48N latitude line and just south of the Aleutians, with a building trough setting up in the Northern Gulf. By Thurs (10/17) a nice moderate trough is to be in place in the Northern Gulf being fed by    170 kt winds offering good support for gale development. Something to monitor and possibly resulting in some real swell, finally. 


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/10) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But a tropical system south of Japan is to be recurving northeast and possibly turning extratropical. 

 

Windswell Outlook
On Thurs (10/10) north winds were 20-25 kts early off of North CA and 20 kts well off Central CA generating moderate north windswell but that fetch and windswell is to be steadily fading through the day down to 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino later. For Hawaii east fetch is to be building from California pushing over the Islands later at 15 kts and up to 20 kts over Hawaii possibly producing raw local east windswell at exposed east facing shores. On Fri (10/11) no fetch or windswell production potential is forecast relative to California. Easterly fetch at 15 kts to continue solid up to 1500 nmiles east of Hawaii and at 20 kts over the Islands resulting in solid east windswell. On Saturday (10/12) no fetch greater than 10 kts is forecast near California offering no windswell production potential. East fetch is to hold at 15 kts up to 900 nmiles east of Hawaii  resulting in more east windswell. On Sunday (10/13) no change is forecast for California but with northwest winds building to 15-20 kts over North CA in the afternoon.  For Hawaii east fetch is to be fading in density up to 500 nmiles east of the Islands still producing east windswell. 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Super Typhoon Hagibis on Wed PM (10/9) was 700 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan with winds 140 kts (161 mph) tracking north.  On Thurs AM (10/10) winds had faded some to 130 kts (150 mph) but Hagibis was still tracking north.  The forecast has Hagibis continuing on a northward track with the eye passing directly over Tokyo on Sat (10/12) with winds 85 kts (98 mph) while the system is to be turning to northeast heading towards open ocean. Remnants of Hagibis to track up  off the Kuril Islands on Sun (10/13) with winds fading to 
50 kts (58 mph).  The GFS model suggests solid redevelopment as this system starts to tap the jetstream and turning extrattropical.  See the Long Term Forecast.  

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/10) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and 10 kts for Central CA fading to 15 kts for North CA later and 10 kts or less from Bodega Bay southward. Fri (10/11) a light north flow is forecast for all of CA all day. No change on Sat or Sun (10/13) but with north winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino later. On Monday (10/14)  north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and fading fast mid-day with light winds south of there to Pt Conception. Tuesday (10/15) light winds are forecast for all of CA.  Wednesday (10/16)  south winds are to start building over North CA through the day to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino later as a front organizes off the coast associated with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska.  Thurs (10/17) south winds at 
20 kts are forecast for North CA north from Pt Arena and south at 5 kts to Monterey Bay mid-day.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
A small gale tracked under New Zealand producing only tiny swell targeting Southern CA that is fading now (see Tiny New Zealand Gale below). Swell from a gale previously under New Zealand is tracking northeast (See Another Small New Zealand Gale below). 

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast. 

 

Tiny New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed tracking east-northeast from under New Zealand on Fri PM (9/27) with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building to 28 ft at 54S 177E. On Sat AM (9/28) southwest wind were building at 45 kts over a small area with 32 ft seas at 52S 169W aimed east-northeast. In the evening a small area of 40-45 kts southwest winds tracked east with 32 ft seas at 53S 158W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (9/29) the gale was fading while falling southeast and no longer producing meaningful seas. No real swell is expected to result.

Southern CA: Swell fading on Thurs (10/10) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

 

Another Small New Zealand Gale
On Saturday AM (10/5) a tiny storm developed under New Zealand with 45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 36 ft over a small area at 58S 164.5E from 213 degrees for California and unshadowed by Tahiti. Southwest winds lifted northeast in the evening at 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 54S 178.5E due south of New Zealand. On Sun AM (10/6) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts moving southeast of New Zealand with seas 28 ft at 56S 169.5W aimed well northeast. In the evening fetch was gone with seas fading from 25 ft at 55S 160W aimed east. Small swell is possible for Hawaii and California.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/12) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (10/13) 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (10/14) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern California: Expect swell arrival on Mon PM (10/14) with period 19 secs and size tiny.  Swell building through the day Tues (10/15) to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell peaking on Wed (10/16) at 1.8 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Thurs (10/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-213 degrees

North California: Expect swell arrival on Mon PM (10/14) with period 19 secs and size tiny.  Swell building through the day Tues (10/15) to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell peaking on Wed (10/16) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Thurs (10/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-213 degrees



Cutoff Tahitian Gale

A tiny cutoff low formed south of Tahiti on Mon (10/7) building in the evening while producing a small sized area of 28 ft seas aimed north at 48S 149W. Fetch and seas were fading Tues AM (10/8) from 26 ft at 45S 147.5W aimed north. Whatever swell is generated with be buried in the New Zealand Swell above.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the remnants of what was Super Typhoon Hagibis are to be redeveloping while turning extratropical on Sun AM (10/13) off the Central Kuril Islands with winds 50+ kts tracking northeast and seas building from 43 ft over a small area at 40N 152E.  In the evening ET Hagibis is to be racing northeast now off Southern Kamchatka with winds building to 55 kts from the northeast aimed well at Hawaii with seas fading from 32 ft at 43N 159E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (10/14) Hagibis is to tap jetstream energy and rapidly build with 60-65 kts west winds over the North Dateline region and seas building to   44 ft at 50.5N 173.5E aimed east. In the evening Hagibis is to track east with 60 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with seas 62 ft at 50.5N 176.5W aimed east somewhat at Hawaii but better at the US West Coast. On Tues AM (10/15) this system is to be growing in coverage with winds 50-55 kts from the west and seas 59 ft at 49.5N 167.5W aimed southeast.  Very interesting. In the evening 50 kt northwest winds are to be falling southeast in the Northern Gulf with 56 ft seas at 47.5N 156.5W targeting mainly the US West Coast. On Wed AM (10/16) fetch is to be fading from 45 kts from the northwest and centered in the Gulf of Alaska with seas fading from 49 ft at 45.5N 150.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be fading with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a solid area in the Eastern Gulf with 40 ft seas at 45N 145W aimed east-southeast. On Thurs AM (10/17) theoretically additional fetch is to build in the Gulf at 35-40+ kts with seas from the original fetch fading from 33 ft over a large area at 45N 140W with additional seas over a small area building behind it. Certainly something to monitor.  

Windswell Outlook
On Monday (10/14) north winds are forecast at 20 kts over a tiny area near Cape Mendocino early and fading resulting in no meaningful windswell for the CA coast. For Hawaii east fetch is to be collapsing at 15 kts limited to a small area 300 nmiles east of the Islands likely resulting in no real windswell for the Islands. On Tuesday (10/15) no fetch or windswell production potential is forecast relative to California or Hawaii as strong low pressure takes over the Gulf of Alaska. No change Wednesday or Thursday (10/17) for California or Hawaii.  Fall may begin. 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is to develop just north of the Ross Ice Shelf on Fri PM (10/11) producing 35-40 kts west winds and seas building to 28 ft at 58.5S 170.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/12) southwest winds to build to 40-45 kts aimed almost north with seas building to 30 ft over a moderate sized area at 55S 158.5W aimed northeast. Fetch to continue at 35-40 kts in the evening aimed northeast with 31 ft seas at 59S 149.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/13) southwest fetch to fade to 30-35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 55S 140W aimed north east. Something to monitor. 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

New Cool Pulse Developing Along Peru

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/9) 5 day average winds were moderately from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the Central Pacific then fading to near calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning weak westerly over the Central Pacific and continuing weak westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/10) light westerly anomalies were over the KWGA today. The forecast is for west anomalies to slow fade while moving east out of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/17 and be replaced with moderate easterly anomalies.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/9) A modest strength Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to slowly build to moderate plus strength at day 10 of the model run and hold through the end of the run at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over East Africa and is to migrate weakly to the  east to the Central Indian Ocean 15 days out and exceedingly weak at that time. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to stall over North Africa and if anything retrograde west before moving east again and hold very weak over North Africa at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (9/30) This model has not updated in 2 weeks. It depicts a weak Inactive MJO was over the West Pacific today and is to slowly fade while tracking east pushing into Central America on 10/15 while a weak Active Phase starts building in the West Pacific on 10/20. It is to ease east pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 11/9. A weak Inactive Phase is to be moving east into the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/9) This model depicts the Inactive Phase strong in the Indian Ocean but with west anomalies holding on stubbornly over the KWGA today at modest strength. They are to slowly track east giving way to east anomalies in the KWGA starting 10/12 peaking on 10/25, but very weak. East anomalies are to be filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/6 but starting to give way to west anomalies.  During this entire run west anomalies are to be filling the Pacific east of the dateline, but of no use towards Kelvin Wave development and getting steadily  weaker the last 2 weeks of the model run. Of note: Extremely strong east anomalies are filling the Indian Ocean today centered at 80E and are to remain unchanged through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/10) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern filling the KWGA today but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA for the moment. The forecast has the Inactive MJO signal holding in the KWGA through 11/11 with no east anomalies building in the KWGA and instead very weak west anomalies filling the KWGA through the duration of the Inactive Phase. A weak Active Phase is to develop 11/12 holding through 12/1 with solid west anomalies in the heart of the KWGA. A modest Inactive MJO signal is to develop 11/29 holding through the end of the model run on 1/7/2020 with east anomalies trying to build in the far West KWGA but not really making it and very west anomalies fading but still present filling the KWGA through the end of the model run. Of note: Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through  through the end of the model run but showing signs of tracking east to 120E at the end of the model run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour line in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line is to develop on 11/26 while a high pressure bias builds in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly  rebuild. That is not believable given the subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific. But it is still a bit early to declare that an outright impossibility. 

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/10) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a steady area reaching east to 179E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 171W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east at 154W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with a pocket at +2 degs to 150 meters down on the dateline with +3 deg anomalies reaching east to 120W indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. A small pocket of neutral anomalies was off Ecuador reaching west to 110W reaching down 150 meters.  The collapse of a previous cool pool in the East Pacific is a significant positive development. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a Kelvin Wave under the Dateline with temps +2-3 degs at 160W with cool anomalies from 120W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface. No warming was present east of 120W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) A broad area of positive anomalies were on the dateline from 150E to near 125W at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were fading but still  present between Ecuador to 110W at -5 cms but backtracking compared to days and week previous still forming a cool triangle reaching up into Central America and down to Chile suggestive of La Nina, but no longer with any real momentum pushing west, and if anything retrograding east.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate strong cool anomalies were building along Peru and Ecuador up to the Galapagos and looking to start tracking west on the equator.  Modest warm anomalies were from Central America west to 150W north of the equator and then broader coverage west of there to the dateline. Of Note - Previous strong pockets of warm anomalies that were 1 degree north of the equator from Ecuador to 120W are dissipating. There was no real coverage of  warm anomalies south of the equator. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator with La Nina trying to develop there in multi week long pulses.  We appear to be entering a cold pulse now. 
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/9): Today a strong patch of cool water was developing between Ecuador over the Galapagos and out to 120W. West of there a neutral trend was in effect. The short term trend is towards cooling.  And the long term trend has been towards cooling over the past 2 months.
Hi-res Overview: (10/9) A La Nina like cool stream has been pushing west on the equator starting with a broad bubble of cool water along Chile and Peru then tracking off Ecuador to 130W. It looked weaker  today over the Central equator, but were building and getting ready to pulse in the East Pacific. Warmer than normal water was straddling the equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the equator and all gone south of the equator. South of the equator a cool triangle was apparent from South Chile northwest to 120W then east on the equator to Ecuador. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina appears to be trying to develop, but less markedly since 9/30.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10) Today's temps were fading hard today dropping to -1.921 degs, that after falling hard to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/10) Temps were steady today at +0.041 after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally downward since mid-June.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/10) The model indicates a cooling trend set up late summer with  temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept. The forecast unrealistically has temps rising dramatically after that  reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 1 (which did not occur) and then forecast to fade some to the +0.3 to +0.4 deg range  through April 2020, then fading to neutral in early June. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs in August, and are to hold in the +0.50 range into Dec/Jan, then fading slightly to +0.45 in May/April 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (10/10): The daily index was negative today at -11.35. The 30 day average was negative at -11.14. The 90 day average was rising at -7.38, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): August +0.64, July +0.82, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/6):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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