Thursday, October 10, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 2.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 12.6 secs from 190 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 8.6 secs from 239 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.1 secs
from 185 degrees. Wind at the buoy was calm. Water
temperature 66.2 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.3 ft @
10.1 secs from 314 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.9
secs from 201 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.5 ft @ 12.8 secs
from 201 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.4
secs from 200 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas
were 11.7 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 8.8 ft @ 10.2 secs from 322 degrees.
Wind at the buoy (013) was north at 4-8 kts. Water temp 50.9 degs (013) and 56.1 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
Thursday (10/10) in North and Central CA local north windswell was
producing waves at waist to rarely chest high and soft but clean
with light offshore winds. Protected breaks were waist to chest
high and clean but soft. At Santa Cruz bare minimal
background swell was producing waves at thigh to rarely waist
high and clean but soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura local
windswell was producing set waves at thigh to maybe waist high
and clean but weak. In North Orange Co waves were waist high
on the sets and soft with some texture on top. South Orange
Country's best summertime breaks had waves at chest high on the sets
and clean and lined up but inconsistent. North San Diego had surf at
waist high on the sets and clean and lined up but soft and weak.
Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was getting
some waist to chest high waves and clean and lined up when it
came. The East Shore was getting no real east windswell with waves
thigh high or less and pretty warbled from modest southeast trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (10/6) in California and Hawaii no swell of interest was
hitting either location. But for Hawaii a cutoff low produced a steady
stream of 17-18 ft seas targeting the Islands well Hawaii Thurs-Sat
(10/5) with small windswell radiating south and expected to arrive this
afternoon. And down south a small gale developed under New Zealand
lifting northeast Sat-Sun (10/6) with up to 37 ft seas over a small
area. Small swell is radiating northeast. And maybe one more even weaker
gale is forecast for the South Central Pacific on Sat 910/12). The
transition from Summer towards Fall is not being particularly
productive, likely due to the Inactive Phase of the MJO. but once that
clears out, perhaps better things are to come.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
Thursday (10/10) the jetstream was somewhat consolidated in the west
but weak and ill defined tracking east off Japan to a point just east
of the dateline then falling south into a small, weak and pinched
trough 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii and only offering weak odds to
support low pressure development. East of the the jet was ridging
hard north up into Alaska and then inland over interior Canada offering
no support for gale development in lower levels of the atmosphere. In
all a pretty quiet pattern was indicated. Over the next 72 hours the
dateline trough is to get progressively more pinched and holding it's
ground while winds build to 190 kts pushing over the North Kuril
Islands but not resulting in any trough development. Beyond 72
hours things are to get more interesting with a small trough starting
to set up in the Northern Gulf on Mon (10/14) being fed by 120 kt winds
quickly tracking east and in and of itself not offering much, but
possibly clearing the way for something better developing in the west.
Wind energy is to be building from 160 kts over the Kuril Islands and
building steadily east while consolidating the jet over the entirety of
the North Pacific by Wed (10/16) with the flow running due east
over the 48N latitude line and just south of the Aleutians, with a
building trough setting up in the Northern Gulf. By Thurs (10/17) a
nice moderate trough is to be in place in the Northern Gulf being fed
by 170 kt winds offering good support for gale
development. Something to monitor and possibly resulting in some
real swell, finally.
On Thursday (10/10) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California.
the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. But
a tropical system south of Japan is to be recurving northeast and possibly turning extratropical.
On Thurs (10/10) north winds were 20-25 kts early off of North CA and
20 kts well off Central CA generating moderate north windswell but that
fetch and windswell is to be steadily fading through the day down to 20
kts limited to Cape Mendocino later. For Hawaii east fetch is to be
building from California pushing over the Islands later at 15 kts and
up to 20 kts over Hawaii possibly producing raw local east windswell at
exposed east facing shores. On Fri (10/11) no fetch or windswell
production potential is forecast relative to California. Easterly fetch
at 15 kts to continue solid up to 1500 nmiles east of Hawaii and at 20
kts over the Islands resulting in solid east windswell. On Saturday
(10/12) no fetch greater than 10 kts is forecast near California
offering no windswell production potential. East fetch is to hold at 15
kts up to 900 nmiles east of Hawaii resulting in more east
windswell. On Sunday (10/13) no change is forecast for California but
with northwest winds building to 15-20 kts over North CA in the
afternoon. For Hawaii east fetch is to be fading in density up to
500 nmiles east of the Islands still producing east windswell.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Super Typhoon Hagibis
on Wed PM (10/9) was 700 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan with winds 140 kts
(161 mph) tracking north. On Thurs AM (10/10) winds had faded
some to 130 kts (150 mph) but Hagibis was still tracking north.
The forecast has Hagibis continuing on a northward track with the
eye passing directly over Tokyo on Sat (10/12) with winds 85
kts (98 mph) while the system is to be turning to northeast
heading towards open ocean. Remnants of Hagibis to track up off
the Kuril Islands on Sun (10/13) with winds fading to 50 kts (58 mph).
The GFS model suggests solid redevelopment as this system starts
to tap the jetstream and turning extrattropical. See the Long
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (10/10) north winds to be 20-25 kts for North CA early and
10 kts for Central CA fading to 15 kts for North CA later and 10 kts or
less from Bodega Bay southward. Fri (10/11) a light north flow is
forecast for all of CA all day. No change on Sat or Sun (10/13) but
with north winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino later. On Monday (10/14)
north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early and fading fast
mid-day with light winds south of there to Pt Conception. Tuesday
(10/15) light winds are forecast for all of CA. Wednesday (10/16)
south winds are to start building over North CA through the day
to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino later as a front organizes off the coast
associated with low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska. Thurs (10/17)
south winds at 20 kts are forecast for North CA north from Pt Arena and south at 5 kts to Monterey Bay mid-day.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
A small gale tracked under New Zealand producing only tiny swell
targeting Southern CA that is fading now (see Tiny New Zealand Gale
below). Swell from a gale previously under New Zealand is tracking
northeast (See Another Small New Zealand Gale below).
the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Tiny New Zealand Gale
A small gale developed tracking east-northeast from under New Zealand
on Fri PM (9/27) with 40 kt west-southwest winds and seas building to 28
ft at 54S 177E. On Sat AM (9/28) southwest wind were building at 45 kts
over a small area with 32 ft seas at 52S 169W aimed east-northeast. In
the evening a small area of 40-45 kts southwest winds tracked east with
32 ft seas at 53S 158W aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (9/29) the gale
was fading while falling southeast and no longer producing meaningful
seas. No real swell is expected to result.
Southern CA: Swell fading
on Thurs (10/10) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 205
Another Small New Zealand Gale
On Saturday AM (10/5) a tiny storm developed under New Zealand with
45-50 kt west winds and seas building to 36 ft over a small area at 58S
164.5E from 213 degrees for California and unshadowed by Tahiti.
Southwest winds lifted northeast in the evening at 40 kts with seas 33
ft at 54S 178.5E due south of New Zealand. On Sun AM (10/6) southwest
winds were fading from 35-40 kts moving southeast of New Zealand
with seas 28 ft at 56S 169.5W aimed well northeast. In the evening
fetch was gone with seas fading from 25 ft at 55S 160W aimed east.
Small swell is possible for Hawaii and California.
Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/12) building to 1.3 ft @ 18 secs later
(2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building through the day Sun (10/13) 1.5 ft @ 16-17
secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (10/14) from 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
Southern California: Expect
swell arrival on Mon PM (10/14) with period 19 secs and size tiny.
Swell building through the day Tues (10/15) to 1.5
ft @ 17 secs (2.5 ft) later. Swell peaking on Wed (10/16) at 1.8 ft
@ 16 secs (3.0 ft) mid-day. Swell fading on Thurs (10/17) from 2.0
ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-213 degreesNorth California: Expect
swell arrival on Mon PM (10/14) with period 19 secs and size tiny.
Swell building through the day Tues (10/15) to 1.5 ft @ 17 secs (2.5
ft) later. Swell peaking on Wed (10/16) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft)
mid-day. Swell fading on Thurs (10/17) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs
(2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 210-213 degrees
Cutoff Tahitian Gale
A tiny cutoff low formed south of Tahiti on Mon (10/7)
building in the evening while producing a small sized area of 28 ft
seas aimed north at 48S 149W. Fetch and seas were fading Tues AM (10/8)
from 26 ft at 45S 147.5W aimed north. Whatever swell is generated with be buried in the New Zealand Swell above.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
72 hours the remnants of what was Super Typhoon Hagibis are to be
redeveloping while turning extratropical on Sun AM (10/13) off the
Central Kuril Islands with winds 50+ kts tracking northeast and seas
building from 43 ft over a small area at 40N 152E. In the evening
ET Hagibis is to be racing northeast now off Southern Kamchatka with
winds building to 55 kts from the northeast aimed well at Hawaii with
seas fading from 32 ft at 43N 159E aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM
(10/14) Hagibis is to tap jetstream energy and rapidly build with 60-65
kts west winds over the North Dateline region and seas building to
44 ft at 50.5N 173.5E aimed east. In the evening Hagibis is to
track east with 60 kt west winds over the North Dateline region with
seas 62 ft at 50.5N 176.5W aimed east somewhat at Hawaii but better at
the US West Coast. On Tues AM (10/15) this system is to be growing in
coverage with winds 50-55 kts from the west and seas 59 ft at 49.5N
167.5W aimed southeast. Very interesting. In the evening 50 kt
northwest winds are to be falling southeast in the Northern Gulf with
56 ft seas at 47.5N 156.5W targeting mainly the US West Coast. On Wed
AM (10/16) fetch is to be fading from 45 kts from the northwest and
centered in the Gulf of Alaska with seas fading from 49 ft at
45.5N 150.5W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be fading
with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a solid area in the Eastern Gulf
with 40 ft seas at 45N 145W aimed east-southeast. On Thurs AM (10/17)
theoretically additional fetch is to build in the Gulf at 35-40+ kts
with seas from the original fetch fading from 33 ft over a large area
at 45N 140W with additional seas over a small area building behind it.
Certainly something to monitor.
On Monday (10/14) north winds are forecast at 20 kts over a tiny area
near Cape Mendocino early and fading resulting in no meaningful
windswell for the CA coast. For Hawaii east fetch is to be collapsing
at 15 kts limited to a small area 300 nmiles east of the Islands likely
resulting in no real windswell for the Islands. On Tuesday (10/15) no
fetch or windswell production potential is forecast relative to
California or Hawaii as strong low pressure takes over the Gulf of
Alaska. No change Wednesday or Thursday (10/17) for California or
Hawaii. Fall may begin.
72 hours a gale is to develop just north of the Ross Ice Shelf on Fri
PM (10/11) producing 35-40 kts west winds and seas building to 28 ft at
58.5S 170.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (10/12) southwest winds to build to
40-45 kts aimed almost north with seas building to 30 ft over a moderate
sized area at 55S 158.5W aimed northeast. Fetch to continue at 35-40
kts in the evening aimed northeast with 31 ft seas at 59S 149.5W aimed
northeast. On Sun AM (10/13) southwest fetch to fade to 30-35 kts with
seas fading from 29 ft at 55S 140W aimed north east. Something to
New Cool Pulse Developing Along Peru
Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east
along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in
it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the
part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by
slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing
precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles
(Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single
location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During
the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation
of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential
for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive
Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino.
During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in
high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development.
anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for
understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is
located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on
the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies
in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and
east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase
strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn
enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The
paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and
provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the
potential for swell production).
A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018.
But warming started building along the South and Central American coast
in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and
continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and
Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the
atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then
rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early
June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water
was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos
reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf
conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary
(frequent events of large, long period swells)
It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak
borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely
gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina
ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific,
with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed
El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take
a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But
once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will
start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec
timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from
fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a
normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere)
meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity,
resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal
period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and
duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell
production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to
hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/9)
5 day average winds were moderately from the east over the Eastern
equatorial Pacific shrinking in coverage but still present over the
Central Pacific then fading to near calm over the KWGA. Anomalies were
neutral over the East equatorial Pacific turning weak westerly over the
Central Pacific and continuing weak westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On
(10/10) light westerly anomalies were over the KWGA today. The forecast
is for west anomalies to slow fade while moving east out of
the KWGA at the end of the model run on 10/17 and be replaced with
moderate easterly anomalies.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (10/9) A modest strength
Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA today. The statistic model
indicates the Inactive Phase is to slowly build to moderate plus
strength at day 10 of the model run and hold through the end of the run at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the
same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS):
(10/10) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over
East Africa and is to migrate weakly to the east to the Central Indian Ocean
15 days out and exceedingly weak at that time. The GEFS model suggests
the Active Phase is to stall over North Africa and if anything
retrograde west before moving east again and hold very weak over North
Africa at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (9/30)
This model has not updated in 2 weeks. It depicts a weak Inactive MJO was over the West Pacific today
and is to slowly fade while tracking east pushing into Central America
on 10/15 while a weak Active Phase starts building in the West Pacific
on 10/20. It is to ease east pushing into Central America at the end of
the model run on 11/9. A weak Inactive Phase is to be moving east into
the West Pacific at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind):
(10/9) This model depicts the Inactive Phase strong in the Indian Ocean
but with west anomalies holding on stubbornly over the KWGA today at
modest strength. They are to slowly track east giving way to east
anomalies in the KWGA starting 10/12 peaking on 10/25, but very weak.
East anomalies are to be filling the KWGA through the end of
the model run on 11/6 but starting to give way to west anomalies.
During this entire run west anomalies are to be filling the
Pacific east of the dateline, but of no use towards Kelvin Wave
development and getting steadily weaker the last 2 weeks of the
model run. Of note: Extremely strong east anomalies are filling the
Indian Ocean today centered at 80E and are to remain unchanged through
the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/10)
This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern filling the
KWGA today but with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA for the
moment. The forecast has the Inactive MJO signal holding in the KWGA
through 11/11 with no east anomalies building in the KWGA and instead
very weak west anomalies filling the KWGA through the duration of the
Inactive Phase. A weak Active Phase is to develop 11/12 holding through
12/1 with solid west anomalies in the heart of the KWGA. A modest
Inactive MJO signal is to develop 11/29 holding through the end of the
model run on 1/7/2020 with east anomalies trying to build in the far
West KWGA but not really making it and very west anomalies fading but
still present filling the KWGA through the end of the model run. Of
note: Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today
at 80E and are to hold solid through through the end of the model
run but showing signs of tracking east to 120E at the end of the model
run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a
low pressure bias with 2 contour line in control of the KWGA centered
on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line
is to develop on 11/26 while a high pressure bias builds in the Indian
Ocean starting 10/22. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like
pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given
the subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the
equatorial Pacific. But it is still a bit early to declare that an
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
(10/10) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs over a
steady area reaching east to 179E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady
at 171W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east at 154W today.
The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 120W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm
anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with a pocket at +2 degs to
150 meters down on the dateline with +3 deg anomalies reaching east to
120W indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. A small
pocket of neutral anomalies was off Ecuador reaching west to 110W
reaching down 150 meters. The collapse of a previous cool
pool in the East Pacific is a significant positive development. The
hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/5 indicates warm water from Westerly
Wind Burst #5 has formed a Kelvin Wave under the Dateline with
temps +2-3 degs at 160W with cool anomalies from 120W into Ecuador
drawing up from depth to the surface. No warming was present east of
120W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but
also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/5) A broad
area of positive anomalies were on the dateline from 150E to near 125W
at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were fading but still present between Ecuador to 110W
at -5 cms but backtracking compared to days and week previous still
forming a cool triangle reaching up into Central America and down to
Chile suggestive of La Nina, but no longer with any real momentum
pushing west, and if anything retrograding east.
Surface Water Temps:
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm
production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking).
Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the
atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures
are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data
is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/9) The latest images (1.2 3.4)
indicate strong cool anomalies were building along Peru and Ecuador up
to the Galapagos and looking to start tracking west on
the equator. Modest warm anomalies were from Central
America west to 150W north of the equator and then broader coverage
west of there to the dateline. Of Note - Previous strong pockets of
warm anomalies that were 1 degree north of the equator from
Ecuador to 120W are dissipating. There was no real coverage of
warm anomalies south of the equator. There has been a steady
evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the
equator with La Nina trying to develop there in multi week long pulses.
We appear to be entering a cold pulse now.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/9):
Today a strong patch of cool water was developing between Ecuador over
the Galapagos and out to 120W. West of there a neutral trend
was in effect. The short term trend is towards cooling.
And the long term trend has been towards cooling over the
past 2 months.
(10/9) A La Nina like cool stream has been pushing west on the
equator starting with a broad bubble of cool water along Chile and Peru
then tracking off Ecuador to 130W. It looked weaker today
over the Central equator, but were building and getting ready to pulse
in the East Pacific. Warmer than normal water was straddling the
equator from the remnants of El Nino, mainly north of the
equator and all gone south of the equator. South of the equator a
cool triangle was apparent from South Chile northwest to 120W then east
on the equator to Ecuador. El Nino appears to be in retreat and La Nina
appears to be trying to develop, but less markedly since 9/30.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/10) Today's temps were fading hard today dropping to -1.921 degs, that after falling hard to -1.8 degs
on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps
have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/10)
Temps were steady today at +0.041 after previously bottoming
out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been
generally downward since mid-June.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/10) The model
indicates a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept. The forecast unrealistically
has temps rising dramatically after that reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 1
(which did not occur) and then forecast to fade some to the +0.3 to +0.4 deg range
through April 2020, then fading to neutral in early June. According to
this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly
warm is forecast.
IRI Consensus Plume:
The Aug 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.30 degs in August, and are
to hold in the +0.50 range into Dec/Jan, then fading slightly to +0.45
in May/April 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (10/10):
The daily index was negative today at -11.35. The 30 day average was
negative at -11.14. The 90 day average was rising at -7.38,
suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
(like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive
and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): August +0.64,
July +0.82, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.34, March +1.0, Feb +1.29,
Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates
mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June
2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45,
Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69,
June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78,
Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm
phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be
dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative
readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index
(Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct
+0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April
+0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real
negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early
2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of
negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina).
Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we
have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the
positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that
could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we
will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/6):
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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131
Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ
Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
Time Zone Converter By
popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes
GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand
column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.
Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table