Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 9.1 secs from 187 degrees. Water temp 80.8 (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 12.7 secs from 312 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 347 degrees. Water temp 80.4 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 7.5 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.5 secs from 311 degrees. Wind northwest at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 63.7 degs, 61.9 (Harvest 071), 65.7 (Topanga 103), 64.4 (Long Beach 215), 64.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.3 (Del Mar 153), 66.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.1 ft @ 13.7 secs from 293 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 7.3 ft @ 13.8 secs from 295 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 210 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 3.1 ft @ 14.5 secs from 198 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.7 ft @ 14.2 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 14.4 secs from 212 degrees. Water temperature was 59.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 7.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 5.2 ft @ 13.2 secs from 300 degrees. Wind northwest 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SW 1-2 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE at 2 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 59.2 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 59.0 (San Francisco 46026), 59.4 (SF Bar 142), 59.9 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 58.3 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 59.9 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Wednesday (10/16) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead and lined up with a lot of intermixed warble and mushed and crumbled and lightly fogged in early. Protected breaks had sets at head high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean with fog just above the deck. At Santa Cruz surf was 1-2 ft overhead and reasonably lined up and clean but soft and short. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high and reasonably lined up with good form and occasional sets and clean but soft. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder high and lined up with decent form and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form but a little soft. North San Diego had sets at shoulder high and lined up if not nearly closed out with occasional good form and real clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up and clean with decent form. The South Shore had sets to waist high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. The East Shore was getting some northwest wrap around swell at head high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Wednesday (10/16) southern hemi swell was fading mainly in Southern California originating from a gale that tracked east over the deep South Central Pacific Thurs-Fri (10/4) with 28-30 ft seas then lifted northeast Sat-Sun (10/6) with seas 25-27 ft. And north of Pt Conception and Hawaii swell was hitting originating from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri-Sun (10/13) producing 26-29 ft seas aimed southeast. Looking forward another small gale is forecast for the Gulf of Alaska on Fri-Sat (10/19) with 30 ft seas aimed east. and perhaps a more local gale is forecast in the Southern Gulf on Wed (10/23) with 24 seas mainly targeting Hawaii. And down a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (10/16) with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Another is forecast developing over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (10/19) with up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. It's still summer in the Southern Hemi while the Northern Hemi slowly comes online. Seems the seasons are delay about 6-8 weeks.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Wednesday AM (10/16) the jetstream was consolidated but weak tracking east on the 45N latitude line off the Kuril Islands then building over the dateline forming a small trough and winds building to 140 kts ridging some over the Northern Gulf before falling southeast starting to form a weak trough over the coast of North California. There was not clear support for gale development. Over the next 72 hours the trough over North CA is to build while falling south over the Sierra reaching as far south as far east Southern CA on Sat (10/19) becoming cut off there and dissipating while moving east on Sun (10/20). Perhaps some weather for the Sierra is to result. Meanwhile the dateline trough is to build some while falling south into early Sat (10/19) being fed by 120-130 kts winds offering some support for gale formation over the dateline before getting cut off there on Sun (10/20) and fading. Beyond 72 hours another backdoor trough is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/22) being fed by 120-130 kts winds supporting gale formation but then also getting cut off. By Wed (10/23) the jet is to be running well to the north mostly consolidated while tracking east through the Bering Sea falling into the Northern Gulf on Wed (10/23).

Surface Analysis
On Wednesday (10/16) swell was hitting North and Central CA originating from a broad gale that fell southeast through the Northwestern Gulf (see Northwestern Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs PM (10/17) a small gale is forecast developing the North Central Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts over a small area and seas building. On Fri AM (10/18) the gale is to track slowly east with west winds 40 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 49.5N 150.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be just off British Columbia with west winds 45 kts and seas 32 ft at 50.25N 143.25W aimed east and barely in the North Ca swell window (317 degs). The gale is to be moving inland Sat AM (10/19) with fetch fading from 35 kts and seas 26 ft just off Central British Columbia. Small very north angled swell possible from Pt Conception northward.

Northwestern Gulf Gale
On Thurs PM (10/10) a gale was falling southeast from the Central Bering Sea into the Northwestern Gulf producing 35 kt northwest winds south of the Central Aleutians with seas building aimed southeast. On Fri AM (10/11) northwest winds were 35-40 kts falling southeast over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 48N 172W aimed southeast. Fetch built more while tracking east in the evening with northwest winds 35-40 kts if not near 45 kts over a broadening area and seas 26-27 ft at 47.5N 164W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (10/12) the gale tracks east in the North Central Gulf with northwest winds 35-40 kts over a solid area and seas 29 ft at 50.5N 159.5W aimed southeast with 26 ft seas as far south as 45N 160W. In the evening northwest winds fade from 35 kts still over a solid area aimed southeast with seas 25-26 ft at 47N 156W aimed southeast over a decent area. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/13) from 30-35 kts still filling the North Central Gulf with seas fading from 23 ft at 45.25N 151W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds fade from 30 kts and seas 20 ft at 48.5N 149.25W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Something well worth monitoring.

Oahu: Swell fading some early Wed (10/16) from 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (10/17) fading from 2.8 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 345 moving to 350 degrees.

North CA: Swell fading Wed AM (10/16) from 4.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.0 ft). Local windswell takes over on Thurs (10/17). Swell Direction: 298-302 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading slowly on Wed (10/16) from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 303 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Thurs AM (10/17) high pressure builds with northwest winds 20-25 kts for North Ca and 20 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build at 25-30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. Windswell building. Light rain and snow for the Sierra later.
Fri AM (10/18) high pressure starts fading with northwest winds 20-25 kts just off the coast of North and Central CA and 15 kts nearshore early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell holding.
Sat AM (10/19) northwest winds fade from 20 kts just off North CA early 10-15 kts nearshore and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 20-25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell fading more.
Sun (10/20) northwest winds to be 15 kts limited to Cape Mendocino early and 5 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Mon AM (10/21) northwest winds to be 15 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and 10 kts south of there and 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. No real windswell forecast.
Tues AM (10/22) northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Minimal windswell possible.
Wed AM (10/23) northwest winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts south of there. No windswell forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level falling to 10,000 ft Wed- dropping to 5,000 ft early Fri (10/18) then quickly rebounding to 12,500 ft beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 35-40 degrees through Thurs (10/17) then falling to 30 degrees Fri (10/18) before warming to 50-55 degrees on Sat (10/19) and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell is arriving in California originating from a gale that built over the Central South Pacific (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast building Thurs PM (10/17) southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 26 ft at 61.5S 180W aimed east to northeast. On Fri AM (10/18) southwest winds to build in coverage at 35-40 kts with seas 29 ft at 59.5S 170.5S aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a solid sized area lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 58.75S 164.25S. On Sat AM (10/19) fetch is to be lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 35 kts over a broad area and seas 29 ft at 55S 157.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading some in coverage in the evening at 30 kts with seas 26 ft still over a solid area at 50S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/20) form 30 kts over patches with seas fading from 24 ft at 50S 143W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (10/14) in the Southeast Pacific a gale developed with 45 kt south to southwest winds and seas building from 24 ft in patched at 54S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt south and southwest winds were moving east with seas 33 ft at 53S 135.75W aimed northeast. The gale lifted northeast on Tues AM (10/15) with 35 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 47.5S 131.25W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from the south at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 50S 119.75S aimed north and northeast. Fetch was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/22) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building Wed (10/23) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-AM (4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 moving to 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/22) building to 1.4 ft @ 18-19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building Wed (10/23) to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
On Thurs AM (10/3) a gale was pushing east over the deep Central South Pacific southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 45 kts and seas 31 ft at 62.25S 178.75E aimed east. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts with seas 30 ft at 61S 169.25W aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (10/4) the gale was lifting northeast with 35-40 kt southwest winds over a broad area and seas 29 ft at 57.25S 162.75W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 52S 157.5W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading some Sat AM (10/5) producing southwest winds at 30+ kts and seas 26 ft at 48.5S 149.5W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds rebuilt to 35-40 kts with seas 25 ft at 51.25S 139.5W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (10/6) south winds were holding at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 50S 132.25W aimed northeast. In the evening the gale fell southeast with south winds 30-35 kts and seas 27 ft at 50S 132.25W aimed northeast. Swell is radiating northeast.

Southern CA: Swell fading some on Wed (10/16) from 2.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/17) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/18) fading from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 moving to 186 degrees

North CA: Swell fading some on Wed (10/16) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/17) from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (10/18) fading from 1.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 moving to 185 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues AM (10/22) a low pressure system is forecast developing in the East Central Gulf producing north winds at 30 kts starting to get some traction. In the evening north to northeast winds to build to 45 kts with seas 24 ft at 40N 147W targeting mainly Hawaii. Fetch fading while expanding Wed AM (10/23) from the northeast at 35 kts with seas 24 ft at 38N 150W still targeting Hawaii well. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/15) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/16) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests west anomalies are to start building over the far West KWGA 10/18 building steadily in coverage and filling the KWGA on 10/25 at moderate strength holding through the end of the model run on 11/1. East anomalies are to become less of an issue fading 10/23 and gone by 10/25. The end of the Inactive MJO is near.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/15) Currently a weak active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO building filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run holding through the end of the model run on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/16) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over the West Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the far West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and weak. The dynamic model depicts quicker eastward track reaching the solidly into the West Pacific at modest strength. The long range models suggest it moving through the West Pacific to Africa and the Indian Ocean and very weak 1 month out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/16) This model depicts a moderate Active MJO pattern (wet air) was starting to build in the West KWGA. It is to track east through the KWGA and east of it by 11/10. A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start moving over the KWGA on 11/10 and moving east but still over the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/15) Today the Inactive Phase was moving over the KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive MJO fading on 10/18 with east anomalies filling the KWGA at moderate status holding if not building to strong status on 10/29 and building through the end of the model run on 11/12. West anomalies to develop in the far West KWGA 10/19 reaching to 150E and holding through 11/6 then fading.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/13) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was fading with moderate east anomalies in control. It is to track east through the KWGA through 10/25. The Active Phase is to develop in the west starting 10/18 and pushing east through 11/14 with west anomalies filling the KWGA. A very weak Inactive Phase is to follow starting 11/5 but with a mix of neutral to weak east anomalies filling the KWGA through 12/12. The Active Phase is to follow starting 12/8 with west anomalies mainly west of the dateline through the end of the model run on 1/13/25. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/20-11/1. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/24 with 1 contour over a thin area maybe expanding slightly through Dec then thinning through the end of the model run but never having a second contour line. The model has now downgraded suggesting a more normal weak La Nina pattern forecast.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/16) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone (previously retrograding from 175E to 165E). The 29 degree isotherm was retrograding from 175W to 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 168W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific and thicker in the east now. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 170W reaching to the surface between 140W to 165W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/10 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 155W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline other than a few shallow pockets of warm water in the east. But, the density of that cold water was significantly less than day and weeks past with the density of warm anomalies west of there building started at 170W and points west of there. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 155W (previously the dateline) with -10 cms shrinking in coverage at 130W. -15 cm anomalies were embedded in one tiny spot in that area. It appears the cool pool is losing density and intensity fast. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/10) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept from 180W to Ecuador but started quickly fading the end of Sept. Today the cool pool is rebuilding slightly after fading reaching west to only 141W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador. But, the Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/15) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was limited on the equator between 100W to 165W. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are holding. We are in a transitional phase moving from neutral to La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/15): Pockets of cooling were fading between the Galapagos to 150W. A La Nina pulse might be starting to fade some.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/16) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -1.153 previous falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/16) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.934 after reaching up to -0.741 on 10/1 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were Not Available for week of 10/25 (presumably due the Helene outages), -0.5 degs (week of 9/18) the first time solidly negative. Previously temps were near neutral since 5/8/24. Weekly values were -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.07 August.
3 Month ONI (centered relative) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug and -0.3 in late Sept. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (10/16) - Temps to fall to -0.50 mid-Oct, peaking down at -1.05 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.45 in Oct then down to -0.95 degs in Dec. None of this is believable since the model 3 days ago indicated temps falling to -1.0 degs in Oct, and now indicates only -0.5 degs Oct. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.500 degs today and is the 4th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.656 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.862 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.339 in Jan. Both these projections are colder than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/13) the Daily Index was negative at -11.86 today and has been negative the last 2 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 1.77 and has been generally positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at 1.41 and neutral the last month. Thee first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July and -2.88 Aug. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.