Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 8.9 secs from 176 degrees. Water temp 81.0 (Barbers Pt), 80.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 81.5 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 9.3 secs from 93 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 11.6 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 8.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 6.8 ft @ 10.4 secs from 311 degrees. Wind north-northwest at 16-20 kts. Water temperature 60.3 degs, 60.1 (Harvest 071), 62.4 (Topanga 103), 63.9 (Long Beach 215), 64.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.5 (Del Mar 153), 64.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.5 ft @ 9.7 secs from 315 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 6.3 ft @ 10.4 secs from 308 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.6 secs from 208 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.2 ft @ 12.6 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 12.8 secs from 200 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 4.0 ft @ 8.1 secs from 288 degrees. Water temperature was 59.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 8.0 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 9.2 secs from 311 degrees. Wind northwest 10-12 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 13-15 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NW at 14 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 53.1 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 56.1 (San Francisco 46026), 58.8 (SF Bar 142), 57.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.9 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 55.4 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Friday (10/18) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and weakly lined up with a fair amount of intermixed warble and mushed and crumbled early. Protected breaks had sets at waist to chest high and lined up if not closed out and fairly clean with some slight intermixed warble and weak early. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to maybe waist high and somewhat lined up and clean with light offshore wind but soft and weak. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but very soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up with decent form and clean but very soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets and waist to maybe chest high and weak and soft but clean. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high on the peak and somewhat lined up and mushed with a fair amount of warble in the water. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist high and clean but soft and weak early. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting waist high east windswell and warbled from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Friday (10/18) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii. Looking forward a local gale is forecast in the Southeastern Gulf on Wed (10/23) producing 20 seas mainly targeting Hawaii. The North Pacific has gone to sleep. Down a gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (10/16) with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Another is forecast developing over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (10/19) with up to 32 ft seas aimed northeast. It's still summer in the Southern Hemi while the Northern Hemi tried to come online. Seems the seasons are delay about 6-8 weeks.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Friday AM (10/18) the jetstream was consolidated ridging over Kamchatka with winds 150 kts then falling southeast down to 38N over the dateline and very weak with winds 70 kts before tracking northeast and pushing into Central Canada with winds 110 kts. No meaningful support for gale formation was indicated. Over the next 72 hours a strong ridge is to build in the west pushing the jet up into the North Bering Sea on Sun (10/20) then falling hard southwest forming a backdoor trough over the southern dateline area but very weak if not cutting off offering at best support for low pressure development there before the jet tracks northeast moving inland over Central Canada. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to settle down some but still tracking east through the Bering Sea on Tues (10/22) with winds 100-110 kts pushing into Canada then doubling back forming a backdoor trough over the Eastern Gulf Mon-Tues (10/22) being fed by 110-120 kts winds supporting gale formation but then cutting off on Wed (10/23). Theoretically on Fri 910/25) the jet is to finally start falling southeast over the Northern Gulf forming a trough being fed by 140 kts perhaps offering some limited support for gale formation.

Surface Analysis
On Friday (10/18) no swell was hitting California or Hawaii originating from the Northern Hemisphere.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Sat AM (10/19) northwest winds fade from 20 kts over Cape Mendocino early and 5 kts for the rest of North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be barely 20 kts limited to Cape Mendocino and northwest 5 kts for the rest of North Ca and all of Central CA. Windswell fading out.
Sun (10/20) northwest winds to be 15 kts limited to waters off Cape Mendocino early and 5-10 kts south of there to Pt Conception. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No meaningful windswell forecast.
Mon AM (10/21) northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. No real windswell forecast. Light rain for Cape Mendocino early.
Tues AM (10/22) northwest winds to be 15 kts for all of North and Central early. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. No real windswell forecast.
Wed AM (10/23) low pressure is to be building well off the coast with northeast winds 5-10 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 5-10 kts south of there. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North and Central CA with low pressure holding off the coast. No windswell forecast.
Thurs AM (10/24) south winds to be 5 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest winds 5 kts south of there and over all of Central CA early. In the afternoon low pressure is to start moving onshore over Cape Mendocino with south winds 15-20 kts for most of North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Windswell from the low hitting. rain for Cape Mendocino in the afternoon and evening.
Fri AM (10/25) low pressure is to be impacting Cape Mendocino with south winds 20-30 kts there and south winds 10 kts down to the Golden Gate. Calm winds forecast early for Central CA. rain fro all of North CA early.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level quickly rebounding to 12,000 ft Sat AM (10/19) and holding possibly falling to 8,500 ft starting Thurs (10/24) and beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 45-50 degrees Sat (10/19) and holding before falling to 35-45 degrees beyond and 32 degrees Thurs PM (10/24) and Sat PM (10/26).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell is hitting California or Hawaii originating from the South Pacific. But swell is tracking north originating from a gale that previously built over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs PM (10/17) a gale started developing southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 24 ft at 60.5S 178.75E aimed east to northeast. On Fri AM (10/18) southwest winds were building in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 28 ft at 62S 171.75S aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40 kts over a solid sized area lifting northeast with seas 33 ft at 58.75S 163S. On Sat AM (10/19) fetch is to be lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas 29 ft at 55.25S 154W aimed northeast. Fetch fading some in coverage in the evening at 30 kts with seas 26 ft still over a solid area at 56.25S 144.25W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sun AM (10/20) from 30-35 kts over patches with seas fading from 27 ft at 56.75S 141.75W aimed northeast. The gale to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (10/14) in the Southeast Pacific a gale developed with 45 kt south to southwest winds and seas building from 24 ft in patched at 54S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt south and southwest winds were moving east with seas 33 ft at 53S 135.75W aimed northeast. The gale lifted northeast on Tues AM (10/15) with 35 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 47.5S 131.25W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from the south at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 50S 119.75S aimed north and northeast. Fetch was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/22) building to 1.9 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building Wed (10/23) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-AM (4.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 moving to 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (10/22) building to 1.4 ft @ 18-19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell building Wed (10/23) to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Tues PM (10/22) a low pressure system is forecast developing in the East Central Gulf producing north winds at 30 kts starting to get some traction. On Wed AM (10/23) the gale is to build with northeast winds 35+ kts and seas 20 ft at 36N 142W aimed south. In the evening northeast and northwest winds to build to 40 kts with seas 18-20 ft at 38N 142W targeting mainly Hawaii. Fetch fading Thurs AM (10/24) from the northeast at 35 kts with seas 20 ft at 39N 141W still targeting Hawaii well. The gale to evaporate from there. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours perhaps another gale is to track east under New Zealand on Wed (10/23) 33 ft seas at 52.25S 174.5E aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Remnants of the previous gale to possibly redevelop over the Central South Pacific on Fri (10/25) producing 28 ft seas. Will believe it when it happens.

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/17) Water sensors are down in the east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/18) Today moderate east anomalies were filling the East KWGA while weak west anomalies were building over the West KWGA. The forecast suggests west anomalies are to hold over the far West KWGA into 10/23 while building to moderate strength, then expanding east and filling the KWGA 10/26 holding through the end of the model run on 11/3. East anomalies are to be fading 10/23 and gone by 10/25. The end of the Inactive MJO is near.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (10/17) Currently a moderate Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO building filling the KWGA on day 5 of the model run holding through the end of the model run on day 15. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but with the Active Phase fading to weak status on day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (10/18) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the Central West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and split between weak and moderate strength. The dynamic model depicts quicker eastward track reaching into the East Pacific at modest strength. The long range models suggest it moving through the West Pacific to Africa and the East Indian Ocean and very weak 1 month out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/18) This model depicts a strong Active MJO pattern (wet air) was building over the KWGA. It is to track east through the KWGA and east of it by 11/7. A moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to start moving over the KWGA on 11/7 and moving east filling the KWGA till 11/22. A new Active Phase is to start pushing into the KWGA at the end of the model run on 11/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/17) Today the Inactive Phase was moving over the KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. The forecast has the Inactive MJO fading on 10/20 with east anomalies filling the KWGA at moderate status pushing to strong status 10/20-10/26 then back to moderate strength. The Active Phase is to follow in the KWGA 10/21 to 11/5 with west anomalies in the KWGA during much of the window. East anomalies to rebuild to start status 11/7 through the end of the model run on 11/14 with the Inactive Phase developing in the west.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/18) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today a moderate Inactive Phase was fading with moderate east anomalies in control. It is to track east through the KWGA through 10/26. The Active Phase is to develop in the west starting 10/19 pushing east through 11/11 with west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow starting 11/5 with a mix of neutral to weak east anomalies filling the KWGA through 11/27. The Active Phase is to follow starting 11/25 with west anomalies mainly west of the dateline and the Active phase holding through 12/29 with west anomalies filling the Equatorial Pacific starting 12/15 and beyond. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 12/21 but with west anomalies holding. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour. A second contour is forecast 10/20-11/2. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3 then collapsed to nothing. It is to return weakly over the dateline 10/24 with 1 contour over a thin area maybe expanding slightly through Dec then gone on 1/5/25 never having a second contour line. The model suggests a very weak La Nina pattern through the end of the year, then fading.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/18) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone (previously retrograding from 175E to 165E). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 169W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific and thinner now in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 140W reaching to the surface between 125W to 165W but this is questionable due to lack of sensors east of 155W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/10 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 155W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline other than a few shallow pockets of warm water in the east. But, the density of that cold water was significantly less than day and weeks past with the density of warm anomalies west of there building started at 170W and points west of there. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/10) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 155W (previously the dateline) with -10 cms shrinking in coverage at 130W. No -15 cm anomalies were indicated. It appears the cool pool is losing density and intensity fast. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/10) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept from 180W to Ecuador but started quickly fading the end of Sept. Today the cool pool is rebuilding slightly from 143W to 150W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador. But, the Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/17) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 165W. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are holding. We are in a transitional phase moving from neutral to La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/17): Pockets of cooling were holding between the Galapagos to 150W. A La Nina pulse might be starting to fade some.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/18) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising at -1.054 previous falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/18) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -0.960 after reaching up to -0.741 on 10/1 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.5 degs (week of 10/9). Previously temps were -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.11 August, -0.28 Sept.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.44 (JJA), -0.39 (MJJ), -0.21 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.48 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.45 mid-Oct. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (10/18) - Temps to fall to -0.80 Nov, peaking down at -1.10 degs in Dec 2024 before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -0.95 degs in Dec. None of this is believable since the model even a week ago indicated temps would fall way more than the actually did in Oct. But even with that error, the model indicates we are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The September 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.500 degs today and is the 4th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.656 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.862 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.339 in Jan. Both these projections are colder than the month before.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/18) the Daily Index was negative at -8.45 today and has been negative the last 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling some at 1.20 and has been generally positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising slightly at 1.79 and neutral the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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