BUOY ROUNDUP
Thursday, October 24, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (10/24) in North and Central CA waves were waist high and weakly fairly lined up and mushed but clean early on the surface with some intermixed modest warble. Protected breaks had sets to near waist high and lined up and weak and soft but clean. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to maybe chest high on the sets and short and soft but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean early. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up if not a bit closed out and clean but heavily fogged in early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets to head high and lined up with good form and clean but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets to shoulder high and lined up with good form and clean early. Oahu's North Shore had sets at shoulder high plus and lined up with good form and very clean early. The South Shore had some thigh high sets with decent form and soft but real clean early. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at 1 ft overhead swell and textured from modest easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (10/24) south swell was fading in California from a gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific Mon-Wed (10/16) with 33 ft seas aimed northeast. Hawaii was getting northerly windswell from a local gale that was developing in the Southeastern Gulf of Alaska on Wed (10/23) producing 23 seas aimed south and southeast. Another small gale was falling southeast through the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs-Fri (10/25) producing 24 ft seas aimed southeast and is forecast to rebuild on Sat (10/26) with 28 ft seas aimed south and barely in the NCal swell window. Another gale is forecast in the Northern Gulf on Tues-Wed (10/30) with 28 ft seas aimed south. And another is forecast just off Kamchatka moving to the Northern Dateline region Wed-Thurs (10/24) with 34 ft seas aimed east. Down south another gale developed over the South Central Pacific Fri-Sat (10/19) with up to 31 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is pushing north. Nothing obvious is to follow.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday AM (10/24) the jetstream was ridging hard northeast over Japan and the Kuril Islands up into the North Bering Sea then building while falling hard southeast forming a trough with winds 180 kts (still in the Bering Sea) but starting to get exposed south of the East Aleutians Islands offering some opportunity for gale formation there. Weak energy was tracking from there into British Columbia offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the jet is to continue falling south forming a trough over the Northwestern Gulf being fed by 170 kt winds offering good support for gale development and continuing to fall southeast while being re-energized Fri-Sat (10/26) by 160 kt winds offering good support for gale formation approaching the Pacific Northwest early Sun (10/27) while fading. .Beyond 72 hours that trough is to ease east pushing inland over the Pacific Northwest on Mon (10/28) and pushing south to Central CA providing weather there. Back to the west then jet is to start gaining energy tracking east on the 42N latitude line Tues (10/29) forming a defined trough pushing off Kamchatka while building with winds to 180 kts Wed (10/30) offering good support for gale development. By Thurs (10/31) the trough is to have faded but winds at 170 kts are to be tracking east on the 40N latitude line the whole way across the North Pacific reaching into the Western Gulf of Alaska and looking very much like your standard wintertime jetstream pattern. No troughs are forecast but it seems just a matter of time. Improvements seems possible down at the surface.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (10/24) small windswell from a gale well of California was hitting Hawaii (see Gulf Low Pressure Below). .

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing while falling southeast through the Northern Gulf (see North Gulf Gale below).

Gulf Low Pressure
On Tues PM (10/22) a small and weak low pressure system started developing in the South Central Gulf producing north winds at 35 kts over a tiny area starting to get some traction. On Wed AM (10/23) the low built to gale status with north and northeast winds 35-40 kts and seas 18 ft at 34N 143W aimed south targeting Hawaii. In the evening northwest and west winds built to 35-40 kts 1100 nmiles off Monterey Bay targeting Hawaii well with seas 24 ft at 35.5N 144W targeting mainly open ocean between Hawaii and the US West Coast. Fetch fading Thurs AM (10/24) from the north and northwest at 30-35 kts with seas fading from 20 ft at 37N 146W targeting Hawaii best. In the evening the gael is to start drifting east with 30-35 kt west winds targeting California and seas fading out and not significant. Something to monitor with perhaps windswell for California and Hawaii.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (10/24) building to 3.6 ft @ 10-11 secs mid-day (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (10/25) from 3.1 ft @ 9-10 secs (3.0 ft). Perhaps a second spurt of swell energy to arrive Sat AM (10/26) at 3.9 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (10/27) from 3.6 ft @ 10-11 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 25 degrees moving to 40 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (10/26) building to 5.0 ft @ 12 secs mid-day (6.0 ft). Swell rebuilding some Sun (10/27) at 4.3 ft @ 10 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 270 degrees

North Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (10/23) a new low pressure system was trying to develop in the Southeast Bering Sea starting to fall south. On Thurs (10/24) the core of the low is to still be in the Bering Sea but with northwest winds starting to fall southeast into the Northwestern Gulf at 35-45 kts with seas just starting to get some traction. In the evening northwest winds to be 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed southeast in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 23 ft at 52N 158W aimed southeast. On Fri AM (10/25) north to northwest winds to be 30-35 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with 23 ft seas at 48N 153W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds rebuild in coverage at 30-35 kts filling the Northeastern Gulf with 24 ft seas at 46.5N 148W aimed southeast. The gale is to continue circulating on Sat AM (10/26) in the Northeast Gulf with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas building to 26 ft at 50N 145W. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft east of the NCal swell window, But at 11 Am seas to be 28 ft at 48N 142W aimed down the 313 degrees path to North CA. Something to monitor.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
Hurricane Kristy on Thurs AM (1024) was located 1200 nmiles south of Pt Conception with winds 130 kts (150 mph) taking a westerly track. Kristy is to build more in the evening with winds 135 kts (155 mph) continuing on a west heading, then starting to fade Fri AM (10/25) and turning to the northwest. Kristy is to be on a northwest heading Sat AM (10/26) with winds 95 kts (110 mph) 1000 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception then continuing northwest while fading into Sun (10/27) with winds down to 50 kts offering nothing in terms of swell generation potential being sheared by building strong and broad high pressure filling the Gulf of Alaska at that time. Perhaps some very small sideband swell to reach Southern CA from earlier in Kristys life but nothing distinguishable from other southern hemi swell already in the water.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12,500 ft but falling to 3,500 ft early Tues (10/29), 5,000 ft early Wed (10/30) then down to 3,500 ft early Fri (11/1) then rising to the 9,000 ft range beyond. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 45-50 degrees through Sat (10/28) before falling to 15-25 degrees Mon-Thurs (10/31) then 35 degrees through the end of the model run on Sat (11/2).

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell is fading in California originating from a gale that previously built over the Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a gale that developed over the Central South Pacific is to be tracking northeast and hitting Hawaii and California (see Central South Pacific Gale below).

Southeast Pacific Gale
On Mon AM (10/14) in the Southeast Pacific a gale developed with 45 kt south to southwest winds and seas building from 24 ft in patched at 54S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening 40-45 kt south and southwest winds were moving east with seas 33 ft at 53S 135.75W aimed northeast. The gale lifted northeast on Tues AM (10/15) with 35 kt south winds and seas 31 ft at 47.5S 131.25W aimed northeast. Fetch faded in the evening from the south at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 50S 119.75S aimed north and northeast. Fetch was gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 1.9 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 moving to 190 degrees

North CA: Swell fading Thurs AM (10/24) from 2.5 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Fri AM (10/25) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 moving to 185 degrees

Central South Pacific Gale
On Thurs PM (10/17) a gale started developing southeast of New Zealand with southwest winds 35+ kts and seas 24 ft at 60.5S 178.75E aimed east to northeast. On Fri AM (10/18) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 62S 172.5S aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds to be 40 kts over a solid sized area lifting northeast with seas 31 ft at 58.75S 163.5S. On Sat AM (10/19) fetch is to be lifting hard northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas fading from 27 ft at 54S 154.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading some in coverage in the evening at 30 kts with seas 25 ft still over a solid area at 52.75S 146.75W aimed northeast. This system is to be gone after that. Swell is radiating northeast.

Oahu: Expect sideband swell building on Sat (10/26) to 1.3 ft @ 16-17 secs early (2.0 ft). Sideband swell building Sun (10/27) to 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading on Mon (10/28) from 1.6 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/27) building to 1.0 ft @ 17-18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (10/28) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues (10/29) at 1.8 ft @ 15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (10/30) from 1.8 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/31) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/27) building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Mon (10/28) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaking Tues (10/29) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (10/30) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (10/31) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf on Tues-Wed (10/30) with seas 26-28 ft.

And on Wed-Thurs (10/31) a broader and stronger gale is to develop just south of the West Aleutians tracking east with seas 34-35 ft seas initially fading to 26 ft seas in the far Northwestern Gulf aimed east.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

ENSO Neutral Trying to Turn to La Nina
Models Weaken Strength of La Nina
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still weakly in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024 as La Nina builds underneath that background state.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/23) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (10/24) Today moderate to strong east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with strong west anomalies over the far West KWGA. The forecast suggests west anomalies are to incrementally build to the east mostly filling the KWGA by 11/3 then holding but with east anomalies still trying to hold on in pockets. The end of the Inactive MJO is coming.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/22) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone (previously retrograding from 175E to 165E). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking from 170W to 172W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific and thinner now in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the East but losing coverage. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 140W reaching to the surface between 125W to 160W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/20 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 155W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline other than a few shallow pockets of warm water in the east. But, the density of that cold water was significantly less than days and weeks past with the density of warm anomalies west of there building starting at 155W and points west of there. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 160W (previously the dateline) with -10 cms in spare pockets between the Galapagos to 140W. No -15 cm anomalies were indicated. It appears the cool pool is losing density and intensity. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/20) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept but started quickly fading early Oct. Today the cool pool is holding extending west to 153W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and cool water east of there to Ecuador. But, the Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (10/23) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline densest from 105W-145W but not super strong. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are steady. We are in a transitional phase moving from neutral to La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/23): Pockets of cooling were fading between 110W to 150W. A La Nina pulse might be starting to fade some.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/24) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising to -0.864 previous falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/24) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were steady at -1.007 after reaching up to -0.741 on 10/1 after falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 10/16. Previously temps were -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +0.24 May, +0.18 June, +0.05 July and -0.11 August, -0.28 Sept.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.64 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.45 mid-Oct. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (10/24) - Temps to fall to -0.85 Nov, peaking down at -1.20 degs Dec-Jan before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -1.05 degs in Dec rising to 1.0 degs in Jan. None of this is believable since the model even a week ago indicated temps would fall way more than the actually did in Oct. But even with that error, the model indicates we are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 18, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.470 degs today and is the 5th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.533 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to -0.091 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.597 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.533 in Jan. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (10/24) the Daily Index was positive at 16.31 today and has been positive the last 6 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 3.67 and has been generally positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at 2.20 and generally neutral the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table