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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, October 24, 2020 12:19 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.4 - California & 2.8 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 10/26 thru Sun 11/1

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Dateline Swell For HI & CA
Stronger System to Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, October 24, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 13.0 secs from 193 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 7.9 secs from 20 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 14.0 secs from 204 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 70.0 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 319 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.2 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 188 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 2.0 ft @ 14.2 secs from 181 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.1 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.9 ft @ 8.5 secs from 308 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was south at 4-6 kts. Water temp 54.3 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 58.3 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (10/24) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at thigh to waist high and soft and formed and moderately warbled from south wind. Protected breaks had waves at waist high on the set and clean and soft. At Santa Cruz surf was occasionally waist to chest high on the peak at best breaks and clean coming from the south and sometimes a little lined up. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and clean and soft and slow. Central Orange County had sets coming from the south at chest to shoulder high and lined up and clean when they came. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at waist to maybe chest high and weak and soft but clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high on the peak and clean and lined up but soft and gutless. Hawaii's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore was thigh high and clean and weak. The East Shore was flat to thigh high and clean early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (10/24) California was getting bare minimal local north windswell up north and fading to nearly gone southern hemi swell down south. Hawaii was getting no swell of interest. In the North Pacific a gale tracked over the dateline on Wed-Thurs (10/22) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast. Small swell is radiating towards Hawaii and the US West Coast. Beyond the models suggest a small gale is to form on the dateline Wed-Fri (10/29) producing 44 ft seas aimed east then fading in the Western Gulf early Sat (10/31). Down south a gale is forecast building while moving over the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (10/26) producing up to 37 ft seas aimed east. Perhaps another to form in the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (10/29) producing a tiny area of 34 ft seas aimed northeast.

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (10/24) the jet was consolidated ridging northeast off Japan pushing to the intersection of the dateline and the Aleutians then falling south just east of the dateline into a well-defined but pinched trough with 150 kt winds feeding into at it's apex about 1500 nmiles northwest of Hawaii. There was support for low pressure development in the trough. From there the jet ridged hard north over the Northern Gulf of Alaska before turning southeast and pushing into and down the Canadian Coast moving fully inland over Southern Washington offering only support for high pressure over the Gulf. Over the next 72 hours the pinched trough northwest of Hawaii is to ease east into Mon (10/26) and get weaker and more pinched offering continuing less support for low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours that pinched trough is to continue to try and hold together stalled north of Hawaii into Wed (10/28) while getting progressively weaker. At the same time a new trough is to start building east of Japan moving over the dateline on Thurs (10/29) then starting to build in earnest later Thurs (10/29) in the far Northwestern Gulf being fed by 140 kt winds building to 160 kts late on Fri (10/30) positioned 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii offering good support for gale development. The ridge is to be holding over the US West Coast at that time. This trough is to be of some interest if it materializes.


Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/24) no ground swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii. And even windswell was bare minimal in North and Central CA and non-existent in Hawaii (see QuikCASTs for details).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Dateline Gale
A gale started developing over the North Dateline region on Wed PM (10/21) producing 50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 47.5N 174E aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (10/22) 45 kt west winds were pushing southeast with seas 33 ft at 45.5N 179.5W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30-35 kts over a solid area over the North Dateline region aimed southeast with 26 ft seas at 47N 173W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/23) northwest fetch was fading from 30 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 21 ft at 46N 172W aimed east.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (10/25) building to 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (6.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (10/26) at 3.9 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (10/27) from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 2.7 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Mon (10/26) building to 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell continues on Tues (10/27) at 2.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (10/28) fading from 1.8 ft @ 12 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (10/24) north winds were 15-20 kts along Oregon and down over Cape Mendocino then extending well off the CA coast south of there building to 25 kts later and reaching south to Pt Arena. Light winds were nearshore south of there early and forecast holding all day. Windswell potential building later. On Sun (10/25) north winds are forecast at 25-30 kts along South Oregon down to Cape Mendocino and building to 30 kts solid later producing building windswell with light winds from Bodega Bay southward all day. Mon (10/26) north winds are to be fading in coverage from 25-30 kts early over Cape Mendocino fading later producing limited north windswell at exposed breaks south to Pt Conception with northeast winds from Pt Arena southward. On Tues (10/27) northeast fetch is to be fading in coverage over a small area at 25-30 kts limited to the CA-OR border with windswell generation all but gone and fetch dissipating in the afternoon. Light winds nearshore south of Cape Mendocino all day. Wed (10/28) no windswell producing fetch is forecast with light winds along the CA coast. No change through Fri (10/30).On Sat (10/31) northwest winds are to start building at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No rain is forecast with the rain line starting over mid-Oregon at best and mostly North British Columbia and points northward.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level at 12,500 ft rising to 14,000+ ft 10/27-10/29, then falling back to 12,000 ft through the end of the model run on 11/2.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (10/24) swell from a small storm that formed in the far Southeast Pacific is fading out in California today (see Southeast Pacific Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours the models suggest a gale is to develop over the Southeast Pacific on Sun PM (10/25) producing a broad area of 40 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 28 ft just off the north edge of the Ice Shelf at 59.5S 140W aimed east. On Mon AM (10/26) winds are to build to 50 kts from the west with seas building to 37 ft at 60S 125W all aimed well east over the far Southeast Pacific. In the evening this system is to be east of even the Southern CA swell window. Low odds of meaningful sideband swell radiating north. Something to monitor.

 

Southeast Pacific Storm
A storm formed in the Southeast Pacific on Mon PM (10/12) producing 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas building to 34 ft at 61S 139W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (10/13) west-southwest winds were 45 kts as the now gale moved east with 43 ft seas at 60S 129.5W. The gale rapidly faded in the evening with 40 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 38 ft at 57S 120W aimed east-northeast. Winds faded from 30-35 kts from the southwest on Wed AM (10/14) with seas fading from 29 ft at 54.5S 118.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Maybe some small swell to radiate north.

Southern CA: Residuals on Sat (10/24) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Sat (10/24) fading from 1.5 ft @ 14 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 183 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Wed AM (10/28) a gale is forecast developing mid-way between Japan and the dateline producing 35-45 kt northwest winds over a tiny are starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening the gale is to be just west of the dateline with 40 kt west winds with seas building from 32 ft over a tiny area at 42N 169E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/29) the gale is to be building with northwest to west winds at 50 kts over a small area aimed southeast with seas building to 39 ft at 46N 175E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to track east into the far Northwestern Gulf with winds 45 kts from the west and seas 42 ft at 46N 178W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/30) west winds are to be fading from 40 kts over decent sized area aimed east with seas 38 ft at 46N 173W aimed east-southeast. In the evening the gale is to be fading with 35+ kt northwest winds over the Western Gulf aimed southeast with seas fading from 34 ft at 45N 166.5W aimed southeast. Northwest fetch is to be fading on Sat AM (10/31) from 30 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 42N 162W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours the model is suggesting a small gale developing in the Central South Pacific Wed AM (10/28) producing a small area of 45 kt south-southwest winds and seas 32 ft over a tiny area at 55.5S 153.3W aimed northeast. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds area forecast with 34 ft seas at 51S 147W aimed well northeast. Fetch is to start falling southeast on Thurs AM (10/29) at 45 kt from the south with seas 31 ft at 50S 137W aimed north but fading. No fetch is to be aimed well northeast after that. Something to monitor.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Softening La Nina Slightly

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/23) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial turning moderate easterly over the Central Pacific and moderate plus easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/24) moderate east anomalies were filling the KWGA today and extending east to a point south of California on the equator. The forecast calls for east anomalies fading steadily to near neutral by 10/27 with neutral to weak west anomalies developing limited to the immediate dateline region. But strong east anomalies are to hold over the East Equatorial Pacific and backbuilding to the dateline at the end of the model run on 10/31. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak but is expected to be building some by the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (10/23) A moderate Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO pattern is to hold unchanged on days 5 through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially but with the Active Phase fading to almost gone on day 10 with a weak Inactive MJO pattern setting up on day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/24) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the far East Maritime Continent today and is to fade while tracking east over the West Pacific and near nothing at day 15 in the East Pacific. The GEFS model suggests the MJO is to ease east over the West Pacific to the East Pacific over the next 15 days and slowly weakening to weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/21) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West Pacific today. It is to push east and fade some as it moves over Central America on 11/13 having some limited support for storm production. A moderate Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 11/3 tracking to the East Pacific and over Central America at the end of the model run on 11/30. At that time a modest Active signal is suggested building over the West Pacific.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/23) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today was over the Western KWGA but with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA and all of the equatorial Pacific. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at moderate status through 11/9 even while the Active Phase pushes through the KWGA till 10/30 producing no meaningful west anomalies. East anomalies are to build to strong status 11/10 and building some even after that holding through the end of the model run on 11/20 while the Inactive Phase of the MJO develops in the KWGA starting 11/13 and and building east filling it through the end of the model run. But as the Active MJO tracks south of California 10/30 through the end of the model run, west anomalies are to be building strong in that area. Unfortunately the KWGA is to remain dominated by east anomalies driven by La Nina, even when a solid Active MJO is present. That suggests the La Nina base state is strong and overriding the MJO.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/24 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal is moving east through the KWGA but with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control to a point south of California and into Ecuador. The Active MJO is to slowly push east finally exiting the KWGA on 11/9 producing a mix of weak west and east anomalies. A weak Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/5 tracking east through 12/2 producing mostly east anomalies in the KWGA though some west anomalies are to remain and strong east anomalies over the East Pacific to Ecuador. A weak Active Phase is to try and follow 12/3 with weak west anomalies trying to hold but the Active Phase is to almost instantly collapse. The Inactive Phase is to return 12/11 through the end of the model run on 1/21 with west anomalies trying to hold on in the KWGA but giving up with strong east anomalies taking control on the dateline on 12/27 through the end of the model run. The Active Phase is to be building over the Indian Ocean pushing into the KWGA on 12/19 through the end of the model run with strong west anomalies limited to the far west KWGA while strong east anomalies hold from the dateline eastward. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 170E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 10/26 building through the end of the model run. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 165E at the end of the model run. Its core and western periphery is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. A second contour line is to appear on 12/29. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 163E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was stable at 179E today. The 24 deg isotherm was backtracking to 141W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today but no warmth east of there. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -4 degs near 135W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 160E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/15 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C but with cool anomalies even west of there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/20) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W reaching down to -20 cms at 130W and -15 cms solid between 110W-145W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/23) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Cold anomalies were imbedded in that flow between the Galapagos to 135W and holding solid today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/23): Temps were starting to cool on the equator from Ecuador to a point south of California at 120W then cooling more from 120W to 160W before moderating west of there to 170E.
Hi-res Overview: (10/23) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline with markedly cool anomalies between 110-140W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/24) Today's temps were falling some at -1.300 degs after previously reaching a momentary low of -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(10/22) Temps were falling again at -1.345 today beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/24) Today the model indicates temps at -1.15 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend from here reaching down to -2.4 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.05 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/24): The daily index was positive today at 1.16. The 30 day average was falling slightly at +7.74. The 90 day average was falling some at 7.60, suggesting the current Active MJO was having some impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (10/25):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMCnl9qq_ew&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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