Tuesday, October 29, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) Seas were 3.0 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 14.9 secs from 296 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.8 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 6.0 ft @ 15.7 secs from 319 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.7 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 12.7 secs from 175 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 64.4 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.1 ft @ 17.2 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 17.6 secs from 219 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 12.0 secs from 194 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 17.6 secs from 237 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.6 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 16.2 secs from 282 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 8-10 kts. Water temp 51.6 degs (013) and 56.3 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Tuesday (10/29) in North and Central CA swell originating from the Dateline region was hitting producing set waves at 1-2 ft overhead on the sets and clean and lined up but with a little lump in the water but still pretty powerful. Protected breaks were head high and clean and lined up if not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz northwest swell was wrapping in on occasion producing waves at chest to shoulder high with peaks to head high and clean but inconsistent. In Southern California/Ventura surf was thigh to waist high and clean. In North Orange Co waves were chest high and mushed and a bit warbled from southerly lump and texture running through it. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting some southern hemi swell with set waves at head high and clean and lined up but a bit weak and inconsistent. North San Diego had occasional waves at waist high and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting just past the peak of the Dateline swell with waves double overhead if not a little more and clean and lined up early. The South Shore had some thigh high sets and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around swell from the Dateline with waves waist high and textured from light easterly tradewinds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Tuesday (10/29) in California and Hawaii swell was hitting from a solid gale that developed over the Dateline region on Thurs (10/24) from the remnants of Typhoon Neoguri with 46 ft seas aimed east then redeveloped on Fri (10/25) with 34-37 ft seas aimed southeast and with 27 ft seas holding over a solid area into Sun (10/27). No swell of interest was coming from the South Pacific. For the future a cutoff low is forecast developing 800 nmiles north of Hawaii on Fri-Sat (11/2) producing 23 ft seas aimed south with secondary energy developing over the same area Sun-Mon (11/4) producing 19 ft seas aimed south. The South Pacific is effectively asleep for the foreseeable future.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Tuesday (10/29) the jetstream was tracking east-northeast pushing off North Japan with winds 130-140 kts in one thin stream weakening some near the dateline but starting to form a weak trough then continuing northeast eventually ridging north up into Alaska. Only very limited support for gale development was indicated in the Dateline trough. Over the next 72 hours that trough is to lift quickly northeast and be pushing over the Eastern Aleutians on Thurs (10/31) offering only limited support for low pressure development. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (11/1) a bit of a split flow is to pushing off Japan but consolidating on the dateline producing a thin flow of 150 kts winds starting to form a trough northwest of Hawaii holding on Sat (11/2) but with winds feeding it fading to 100 kts then starting fade out early Mon (11/4). Back to the west on a split flow is forecast pushing off Japan and the Northern Kurils consolidating some over the Northwest Pacific but then splitting heavily from there with a generally weak flow tracking up through the Bering Sea and a secondary flow pushing east to the Central Gulf then turning hard north and pushing up into Alaska. In short, no clearly defined upper level pattern is indicated conducive to gale development. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is clearly taking its toll.
On Tuesday (10/29) swell from Extratropical Storm Neoguri was hitting Hawaii and California (see Extratropical Storm Neoguri below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast. That said a tiny low pressure system is to develop on Wed AM (10/30) in the Northwesterly Gulf of Alaska producing 30 kt northwest winds and seas building to 19 ft over a tiny area at 45N 170W aimed east. the gale is to build some in the evening with 35 kt northwest winds building in coverage with 20 ft seas at 46N 166W aimed east and still tiny in coverage. fetch to fade from 30 kts Thurs AM (11/31) with seas fading from 21 ft at 48.5N 163W aimed east. This system to be gone after that. No meaningful swell to result.
Extratropical Storm Neoguri
Redevelopment of Tropical Storm Neoguri occurred on Thurs AM (10/24) as it tracked northeast just off the coast of Japan with winds 45 kts heading northeast and then rapidly built as it tapped jetstream energy developing to storm status while pushing over the dateline with 50 kt northwest winds and seas building from 35 ft over a tiny area at 43.5N 171.5E aimed east. In the evening west winds continued at 50 kts with seas building to 46 ft over a small area aimed east at 45N 177E. On Fri AM (10/25) fetch was wrapping around down into the gales west quadrant aimed south at 45-50 kts and clear of the Central Aleutians with 37 ft seas from previous fetch aimed east at the US West Coast at 46N 175W and a new area of 34 ft seas building at 48N 176E aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening a solid area of 40-45 kt northwest winds were in place over the North Dateline aimed southeast with 35 ft seas at 47N 179.5E targeting Hawaii and the US West Coast well. North fetch was fading some on Sat AM (10/26) from 40 kts with 32 ft seas at 48N 179E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. In the evening northwest winds to continue at 40 kts over a solid area aimed southeast with 32 ft seas at 48.5N 178.5W aimed southeast. On Sunday AM (10/27) north winds to be 30-35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 46N 176W aimed southeast mainly at Hawaii. The gale is to fade out in the evening with winds fading from 30 kts aimed southeast and seas fading from 22 ft at 45N 171W aimed at Hawaii and the US West Coast. Some swell to result but not as large as one would hope for given it's rather small fetch area initially and it's north position and distance from either Hawaii or the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Swell starting to fade on Tues AM (10/29) from 7.0 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft). Still some energy is to be left Wed AM (10/30) fading from 5.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (9.0 ft). Residuals fading out on Thurs AM (10/31) from 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (5.0 ft). Swell dissipating Fri AM (11/1) from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees initially moving to 335 degrees
North CA: Swell peaking on Tues AM (10/29) at 3.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (5.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (10/30) fading from 2.8 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell continues on Thurs AM (10/31) building slightly to 3.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri (11/1) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Sat (11/2) fading from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft).
Southern CA: No meaningful energy to reach into exposed breaks in Southern CA.
On Tues (10/29) north winds to hold at 20-25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino offering weak odds for small windswell production mainly for North CA. No windswell producing fetch is expected for Hawaii. On Wed (10/30) high pressure is to be fading off British Columbia with north winds 20 kts off and just north of Cape Mendocino early producing minimal windswell radiating south into exposed breaks in North CA then fading to nothing later. No windswell indicated for Hawaii. On Thurs (10/31) north winds are to dissipate or be in the 15 kts range off Cape Mendocino offering no swell production potential of interest. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Fri (11/1) north winds to rebuild weakly over Cape Mendocino at 20 kts perhaps offering some minimal windswell production radiating south over only North CA. No fetch is forecast for Hawaii.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored over the greater North Pacific.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (10/29) light winds were occurring and forecast everywhere all day except north to northeast winds for Cape Mendocino at 20-25 kts. Light winds forecast everywhere Wed-Tues (11/5) but north at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino Fri (11/1) and north 15 kts on Tues (11/5). No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch is occurring and no swell is in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours the models suggest another small gale might develop 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii on Sat AM 911/2) producing 35+ kt north winds and seas building from 21 ft at 36N 169W aimed southeast. The gale is to hold stationary in the evening with 30-35 kt north winds and seas 22 ft at 34N 166.5W targeting the Islands well. On Sun AM (11/3) north winds to hold at 30 kts over a larger area with 18-20 ft seas at 34N 168W aimed south and targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to fade in coverage in the evening but still with 30-35 kt north winds holding 1200 nmiles northwest of the Islands with seas 18-20 ft over a tiny area at 39.5N 169.5W aimed south to southeast. On Mon AM (11/4) fetch is to be fading from 30 kts falling south with seas fading from 18 ft at 36N 168.5W aimed southeast. Swell is expected to radiate southeast towards mainly Hawaii if this system develops as forecast.
On Sat (11/2) no north winds of interest are forecast resulting in no windswell for California. No easterly trades are forecast for Hawaii. On Sun (11/3) northeast winds are forecast at 20-25 kts limited to Cape Mendocino perhaps offering weak odds for windswell production for North and Central CA. No easterly trades capable of generating windswell are forecast for Hawaii. For Mon-Tues (11/5) no windswell production potential is forecast for California or Hawaii.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Inactive MJO Supposedly Fading
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/28) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then moderate strength from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific continuing neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral again over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/29) easterly anomalies were moderate over the entire KWGA today and reaching east to a point south of California. The forecast is for east anomalies to hold in coverage filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/5 and pretty strong on the dateline 11/1-11/3. But at the same time some west anomalies are to start building on 10/31 and holding steady in the far west KWGA through the end of the model run. A strong pulse of the Inactive Phase of the MJO is underway. And strong east anomalies are to remain locked in the Indian Ocean at 70E.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (10/28) A neutral MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak Active Phase is to develop in the west KWGA at day 5 holding through day 10 then fading at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the weak Active Phase present only on day 10. The 2 models are generally in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/29) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the Eastern Indian Ocean and is to migrate to the West Pacific at day 15 and at very weak strength at that time. The GEFS model remains on board suggesting some version of the same pattern.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (10/29) This model depicts a weak active MJO was over the Central Pacific today with a fading Inactive Signal all but gone over Central America. The Active pattern is to track east pushing into Central America on 11/23 while a weak Inactive Phase starts building in the West Pacific 11/15. This Inactive Phase is to ease east pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/8. At that time a new weak Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific 11/28 slowly tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/28) This model depicts modest west anomalies in the KWGA today and they are forecast to hold for next next 10 days while easing east. After that neutral anomalies are to set up in the KWGA holding through the end of the model run on 11/25.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/29) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO pattern fading but still filling the KWGA today but past it's peak with weak west anomalies starting to develop in the KWGA. The forecast has weak west anomalies fading some then redeveloping in earnest on 11/10 as the Inactive phase dissipates and a new very weak Active Phase develops. West anomalies at modest strength to hold if not build as another Active Phase develops 12/3 holding through 12/23. After than the Inactive Phase is to develop 12/24 holding through the end of the model run on 1/27 with west anomalies dissipating on 1/10 and weak east anomalies moving in the the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run. Of note: Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/16 then weakening some while tracking east and moving into the KWGA in early January. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but disappeared from the model a mont ago, but now is to briefly return for 2 weeks in early January. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/29) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 31 degrees to 163E and 30 degs pushing east today to 179W while the 29 deg isotherm was easing east to 166W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 152W to 156W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 105W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 172E and another one 160 meters down at 160W and a broader one at +2 deg centered at 115W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 on the move to the east. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. But cooler waters were easing east starting down 150-200 meters down reaching east to 110W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/25 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 has formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 160E under the Dateline east to 95W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W into Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/25) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present but starting to break up scattered between 150E reaching east to near 95W at +5 cms. But a pocket of neutral anomalies was in the middle of this spread near 160W but much smaller than the last update. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/28) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru and Ecuador but all but gone over the Galapagos. Weak pockets of warming were now appearing along the Southern Peruvian Coast and along Ecuador. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/28): Today a building pocket of warming temps anomalies was present between the Galapagos out to 120W and another pocket directly along Ecuador. Generic warming was west of there on the equator. And a broad pocket of warming was developing pushing off Chile west to 110W. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (10/28) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator along the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/29) Today's temps were falling hard but have stabilized today at -1.491 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/29) Temps were falling slightly today but still on a generally upward trend at +0.227 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/29) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast to toggle between the +0.4 to +0.5 deg range through May 1 2020, then fading to neutral July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25t, and are to hold in the +0.25 range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (10/29): The daily index was negative today at -11.09 and has been negative the last 7 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling some today -4.59. The 90 day average was falling some at -6.94, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table