Saturday, October 31, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 3.3 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.0 ft @ 8.9 secs from 204 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 4.0 ft @ 10.3 secs from 342 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.2 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 0.8 ft @ 15.7 secs from 239 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 2 kts. Water temperature 67.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.8 ft @ 6.1 secs from 312 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.8 ft @ 17.4 secs from 199 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 16.8 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 0.8 ft @ 17.0 secs from 204 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 6.4 secs from 318 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 6-10 kts. Water temp 55.4 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 58.1 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Saturday (10/31) in North and Central CA waves were small at thigh high and clean and weak and soft. Protected breaks were flat to maybe thigh high and clean and soft and fogged in early. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat with clean surface conditions but with underlying warble. Central Orange County was thigh high and breaking on the beach and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare thigh high sets and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh to rarely waist high on the peak and clean and soft. Hawaii's North Shore was waist to maybe chest high and nearly chopped and a warbled mess with onshore wind. The South Shore was waist high and soft and weak but rideable. The East Shore was northwest windswell with waves waist to chest high and clean with offshore winds early.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Saturday (10/31) no swell of interest was hitting California with weak windswell and onshore winds in Hawaii also offering nothing. But an improving pattern is forecast. A small gale tracked over the dateline Wed-Fri (10/29) producing up to 42 ft seas over a small area aimed east then faded in the Western Gulf early Sat (10/31) with seas fading from 23 ft. A short lived gale is forecast developing off the North Kuril Islands tracking southeast with up to 28 ft seas Sat-Sun (11/1) but dissipating before making it to even the dateline. Another gale is forecast developing in the Northern Gulf on Thurs-Fri (11/6) producing 26 ft seas aimed southeast. Down south 2 swells are pushing northeast associated with a gale that developed while moving over the Southeast Pacific on Sun-Mon (10/26) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed east. And another tracked through the Central South Pacific Wed-Thurs (10/29) producing a tiny area of up to 42 ft seas aimed northeast. But after that the southern hemi is forecast to fall asleep.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Saturday (10/31) the jet was consolidated tracking -northeast off Japan with winds building to 180 kts reaching just south of the Central Aleutians then falling southeast at 170 kts forming a trough with it's apex 900 nmiles north of Hawaii trying to offer some support for gale development. East of there the jet again started ridging hard northeast tracking in and over the coast of North Canada. Over the next 72 hours the trough north of Hawaii is to ease east while pinching off on Sunday (11/1) likely offering nothing and continuing that way into Monday (11/2). Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (11/3) the jet is to start ridging hard north off Japan reaching up into the Western Bering Sea but then falling well south starting to form another trough over the Northwestern Gulf early Wed (11/4) with winds feeding that trough building to 140 kts offering some support for gale development there but also starting to get a bit pinched later in the day then totally cut off on Thurs (11/5) no longer supporting gale formation. At that time the jet is to be pushing northeast off Japan ridging well up into the Central Bering Sea then falling south over the far Northeastern Gulf with winds to 140 kts forming a trough there and pushing hard into Washington and Oregon into Fri (11/6) offering the chance for gale development over exposed waters there and weather inland. By Sat (11/7) the jet is to be weak pushing east off Japan then ridging north over the Eastern Aleutians and tracking over the coasts of British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest offering nothing. The jet is to be reflecting a developing La Nina base state.
On Saturday (10/31) swell was tracking southeast associated with a gale that pushed over the North Dateline Region (see North Dateline Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours another small gale is to form just off the Kuril Islands on Sat PM (10/31) producing a small fetch of northwest winds at 45 kt with seas building from 26 ft at 47N 163.5E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/1) fetch is to be fading while tracking southeast at 30-35 kts producing seas to 27 ft seas at 44N 169.5E aimed southeast. The gale is to be fading by the evening with 30 kt northwest winds approaching the dateline and seas fading from 23 ft at 43.5N 172E aimed southeast. Something to monitor mainly for Hawaii.
North Dateline Gale
On Wed AM (10/28) a gale started developing mid-way between Japan and the dateline producing 35 kt northwest winds over a tiny are starting to get traction on the oceans surface. In the evening the gale was just west of the dateline with up to 45 kt west winds with seas building from 27 ft over a tiny area at 42N 171E aimed east. On Thurs AM (10/29) the gale was building with northwest to west winds at 50 kts over a small but building area aimed east with seas building to 35 ft at 46N 178E aimed east. In the evening the gale was tracking east into the far Northwestern Gulf with winds 45 kts from the west and seas 42 ft over a small area at 47.5N 174.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (10/30) west winds were fading some at 35-40 kts with the gale stalled with seas 33-34 ft at 48.5N 168W aimed east over the Northwestern Gulf. In the evening the gale was fading and falling somewhat southeast with 35+ kt northwest winds over the Western Gulf aimed more southeast with seas 29 ft at 47N 166W aimed east. Northwest fetch was fading on Sat AM (10/31) from 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft up at 45N 165W aimed southeast. The gale is to dissipate in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 19 ft at 44N 164W aimed southeast. Swell is expected to result for HI and CA. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sun (11/1) building to 3.4 ft @ 14 secs later (4.5 ft). Swell building again on Mon (11/2) pushing 5.2 ft @ 12 secs later (6.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (11/3) from 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals fading on Wed (11/4) from 4.0 ft @ 11 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 moving to 340 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/2) building to 3.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (5.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (11/3) pushing 5.0 ft @ 14-15 secs later (7.0 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/4) from 3.4 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 298-302 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Saturday (10/31) northwest winds were building from 20 kts limited to the Cape Mendocino-Pt Arena area with light northwest winds 10 kts south of there building to 10-15 kts later. Light northwest winds at 10 kts are forecast for all of North and Central CA on Sun (11/1) and into Mon (11/2) maybe building to 15 kts late Monday over Central CA. A front is forecast nudging close to North CA on Tues (11/3) but dissipating before reaching the coast generating south winds at 10 kts for Cape Mendocino early then fading. Northwest winds are forecast for Central CA at 15 kts and holding all day. Wed (11/4) high pressure is to start weakly ridging up to the coast with a light northerly flow over North CA early at 10 kts with north winds 15 kts for Central CA early with northwest winds building to 10-15 kts for North CA later and near 20 kts for Central CA later. On Thurs (11/5) low pressure is to be building off Washington with north winds 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA early and building in coverage as the day progresses. Fri (11/6) north winds are forecast at 20 kts all day for all of North and Central CA early building to 25-30 kts later. Sat (11/7) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts all day again for North and Central CA and building into Southern CA early at 30 kts. Water temps to plummet over the state. No rain is forecast until Fri (11/6) then limited to Pt Arena and points north of there Fri into early Sat (11/7). Maybe a dusting of snow for Tahoe Fri PM (11/6).
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 2-3, 3, 1, 0 inches respectively. Freezing level roughly at 12,500 ft then possibly falling hard to 3,000 ft on 11/7 and holding near there through 11/9.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Saturday (10/31) small sideband swell from a small gale that developed in the far Southeast Pacific was radiating north towards California and moreso towards South and Central America today (see Southeast Pacific Gale below). Swell from another gale that developed over the South Central Pacific was radiating towards Hawaii and California behind (see Central South Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast. A small system is to possibly develop in the far Southeast Pacific east of the California swell window on Sun (11/1) producing 45 ft seas at 58S 94W barely targeting Southern Chile.
Otherwise the southern hemi is to start going to sleep.
Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Southeast Pacific on Sun PM (10/25) producing a broad area of 40 kt west winds aimed east with seas building to 29-30 ft just off the north edge of the Ice Shelf at 60S 140W aimed east. On Mon AM (10/26) winds built to 40 kts from the west with seas building to 34 ft at 59.5S 122.5W all aimed well east over the far Southeast Pacific. In the evening this system was east of even the Southern CA swell window with seas fading from 32 ft at 118W 60.5S aimed east. Low odds of meaningful sideband swell radiating north. Something to monitor.
Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (11/2) building to 1.5 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (11/3) to 2.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (11/4) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell dissipating on Thurs (11/5) from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees
North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/3) building to 1.8 ft @ 17 secs late (3.0 ft). Swell holding early Wed (11/4) at 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (11/5) from 1.3 ft @ 14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees
Central South Pacific Gale
A small gale developed in the Central South Pacific Wed AM (10/28) producing a small area of 50-55 kt south-southwest winds and seas 36 ft over a tiny area at 54.5S 156W aimed northeast. In the evening 50 kt southwest winds continued tracking east with seas building to 42 ft at 52.5S 146.5W aimed well northeast. Fetch was starting to fade Thurs AM (10/29) at 40-45 kts from the southwest with seas 39 ft at 53S 136.5W aimed northeast and fading while starting to fall southeast. In the evening south fetch is to be fading from 35+ kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 53S 131W aimed northeast. The gale is to be dissipating from there. Something to monitor.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (11/3) building to 1.0 ft @ 18 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell building on Wed (11/4) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell holding on Thurs (11/5) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/6) from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees
Southern CA: Possible swell arrival on Wed (11/4) building to 1.0 ft @ 20-21 secs later (2.0 ft). On Thurs (11/5) swell is to be building to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell building on Fri (11/6) to 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs mid-day (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (11/7) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 197 degrees
North CA: Possible swell arrival on Thurs (11/5) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell building on Fri (11/6) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (11/7) from 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing in the Northeastern Gulf on Wed PM (11/4) producing 40 kt northwest winds and seas building from 20 ft at 53N 150W aimed southeast. On Thurs AM (11/5) northwest winds to be 35-40 kts off British Columbia aimed southeast over a decent sized area producing 28 ft seas at 51N 142W aimed southeast and mostly east of the NCal swell window. In the evening 30-35 kt north fetch is to be off Vancouver Island with 25 ft seas at 48N 140W aimed south and in the NCal swell window. On Fri AM (11/6) north winds are to be fading from 35 kts in the same location with 24 ft seas fading at 47N 135W aimed southeast and barely in the NCal swell window. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
Active MJO Fading - La Nina Building
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (10/30) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and moderate from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial turning moderate easterly over the Central Pacific and modest easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (10/31) a mix of west anomalies were over the West KWGA and strong east anomalies over the East KWGA. The forecast calls for weak west anomalies fading in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/7 with moderate to strong east anomalies backtracking from the dateline and into the heart of the KWGA at the end of the model run. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to be gone by the end of the model run.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (10/30) A weak Active MJO signal was fading over the KWGA today. The statistic model indicates a weak Active MJO pattern is to develop in the West KWGA on days 5 through day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing initially but with the Inactive MJO pattern setting up stronger on day 15 filling the KWGA.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (10/31) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the West Pacific today and is to fade to almost imperceptible status while tracking east and over the Indian Ocean on day 15. The GEFS model suggests the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (10/30) This model depicts a weak Active MJO was over the West and Central Pacific today with a stronger Inactive signal over the East Pacific today. The Inactive signal is to push east over Central America on 11/14 while the Active Phase tracks east behind it and into Central America on 11/24 having some limited support for storm production. A weak and incoherent Inactive Phase of the MJO is to push east over the KWGA on 11/14 tracking to the East Pacific and over Central America at the end of the model run on 12/9. A modest Active signal is suggested building over the West Pacific starting 11/29.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/30) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today was fading over the KWGA today with weak west anomalies in pockets over the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to be gone over the KWGA by 11/3 while east anomalies build reaching strong status 11/5 over a small area and growing in coverage and strength solidly. And the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to not even be over the Pacific. East anomalies are to be strong and filling the KWGA 11/12 through the end of the model run on 11/27 as the Inactive Phase starts building over the far west KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (10/31 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal is moving east through the KWGA with a mix of weak east and west anomalies in control to a point south of California and into Ecuador. The Active MJO is to slowly push east exiting the KWGA on 11/7 continuing to produce a mix of weak west but mainly east anomalies. A modest Inactive Phase is to follow over the KWGA 11/4 tracking east through 12/10 producing east anomalies in the KWGA and points east of there to Ecuador and stronger in the East Pacific. A weak Active Phase is to follow on 12/4 with modest to moderate west anomalies building and hold as the Active Phase pushes out of the KWGA on 1/7. West anomalies are modeled also making a good footprint in the East Pacific around 1/1. The Inactive Phase is to return 1/1 through the end of the model run on 1/27 but with weak west anomalies trying to hold on in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 160E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 12/8 holding for the foreseeable future. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage through the end of the model run with its eastern periphery easing east to 150E at the end of the model run. Its core and western periphery is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (10/31) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was stable at 163E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east to 176W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 146W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today but no warmth east of there. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -4 degs near 135W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 160E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/25 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 165W eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C but with cool anomalies even west of there to 160E. Warm anomalies were below the surface over the far West Pacific reaching east to 160W at depth (150m). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/25) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 180W building to -20 cms at 135W and -15 cms solid between 110W-145W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (10/30) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Colder anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 110W to 150W and growing in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (10/30): Temps were cooling on the equator from 110W to 160W before moderating west of there.
Hi-res Overview: (10/30) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea with markedly cool anomalies between 110-150W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/31) Today's temps were rising some at -1.349 degs and previously were down to -2.138 on 8/13. The trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (10/31) Temps were falling again today at -1.623 beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (10/31) Today the model indicates temps at -1.2 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -2.4 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.25 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Sept 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -0.75 degs today, and are to fall in Nov to -0.85 degs then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.54 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by April. The low outliers are dynamic models (NASA GMAO, NCEP CFSV2). But most model are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (10/31): The daily index was positive today at 20.30. The 30 day average was falling slightly at +3.83. The 90 day average was rising some at 7.85, suggesting the current Active MJO was having some limited impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table