BUOY ROUNDUP
Monday, November 4, 2024 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (11/4) in North and Central CA waves were 8-10 ft on the face and lined up with power but a bit ragged at sunset from onshore winds. Protected breaks had sets at 1-2 ft overhead and super lined up and closed out and somewhat clean with underlying lump. At Santa Cruz surf was 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and well lined up and powerful and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh high and lined up and soft with some northwest texture and warble on top. Central Orange County had sets at waist high plus and lined up and warbled and a mess with strong northwest wind on it in the late afternoon. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at waist high and soft and ill formed and a little textured late. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and soft with no real form but somewhat clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up with good form but with strong easterly trades. The South Shore had some knee to maybe thigh high sets with decent form and real soft but clean. The East Shore was getting north swell at thigh to near waist high and chopped from easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (11/4) northwest swell was fading in Hawaii and peaking in North California from a gale that developed Fri-Sat (11/2) tracking east-northeast through the Northwestern and Northern Gulf with 46-48 ft seas aimed southeast. Looking forward a gale is developing the far Northwestern Gulf just shy of the East Aleutians with 33-34 ft seas forecast Tues (11/5) aimed east then quickly fading out. Another is forecast Tues PM (11/5)in the Western Gulf tracking east with 25 ft seas building to 29 ft Wed PM (11/6) moving to the Northwestern Gulf then fading late Thurs (11/7). A stronger system to develop west of the dateline Fri (11/8) with 29 ft seas pushing over the dateline Sat )11/9) with 27 ft seas then moving to the Northwestern Gulf Sun (11/10) with seas building to 33 ft aimed well southeast and up to 37 ft in the evening. And yet another is forecast off Japan Sun (11/10) moving over the south dateline Mon (11/11) with 34 ft seas then quickly fading. Sure looks like an improving and almost seasonally normal pattern setting up. Down south the season is over with no swell producing weather systems of interest forecast.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday afternoon (11/4) the jetstream was consolidated running east on the 43N latitude line with winds 160 kts falling into a weak trough in the Western Gulf offering some support for gale formation then pushing northeast into the far north Gulf and moving over the coast of Alaska and then southeast down the Canadian Coast. A decent pattern looked to be in place. Over the next 72 hours that same pattern is to persist with winds building to 190 kts over the Western Gulf falling into a building trough Thurs (11/7) setting up a trough there offering good support for gale formation while pushing east. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (11/8) the same pattern is forecast with winds 140 kts pushing off Japan lifting gently east-northeast while building to 170 kts over the Northwestern Gulf pushing the previous trough east and into Oregon on Sun (11/10) making weather there. But a broad trough is to be off Japan tracking east then fading on the dateline Sun (11/10) with the jet splitting there. But a new trough is to develop in the East Gulf Mon.(11/11) being fed by 180 kts winds forming a trough offering support for gale formation yet again.

Surface Analysis
On Mon (11/4) swell from a gale previously in the Northwestern Gulf was fading in Hawaii and peaking in North California (see Northwest Gulf Gale below)..

Over the next 72 hours starting Mon AM (11/4) a gale was winding up in the far Northwestern Gulf with 45 kts west winds and seas building. In the evening west winds were 40-45 kts over a small area just south of the East Aleutians with 26 ft seas at 52N 163.5W aimed east. Fetch holding position Tues AM (11/5) at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft over a small area at 54.25N 159.75W aimed east. Fetch fading from 35 kts in the evening tracking east with seas fading from 30 ft at 54.5N 155W aimed east. Swell only radiating towards North CA and points north of there.

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri AM (11/8) building to 3.4ft @ 13-14 secs mid-day (4.5 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading Sat (11/9) from 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.5 ft) and being overrun by possible larger swell behind it. Swell Direction: 315 degrees

Another gale is forecast developing on the dateline Tues PM (11/5) with 45 kts west winds and seas building from 23 ft at 42.5N 175W aimed east. On Wed AM (11/6) the gael is to sweep east-northeast with 40-45 kts west winds and seas 25 ft at 44N 165W aimed east. The gale lifts northeast in the evening with 40-45 kt west winds and seas 29 ft at 49N 154W aimed east. On Thurs AM (11/7) the gale is to be in the Northern Gulf with 30-35 kts west winds over a solid area and seas 29 ft at 53.5N 152W aimed east. Another possible north angled swell for CA and small sideband swell for Hawaii. Something to monitor.

Northwest Gulf Storm
Thurs AM (11/1) a storm started building just west of the dateline with 50-55 kts northwest winds and seas building from 27 ft at 39N 168E aimed east. In the evening the gael was pushing over the dateline while lifting east-northeast with 55-60 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 42.75N 179W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/1) west winds were 55 kts over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 42 ft at 48N 168.25W aimed east. The storm was just south of the Eastern Aleutians in the evening with 55 kt west winds and seas 46 ft at 51N 159.75W aimed east. On Sat AM fetch was fading in the Northern Gulf from 45 kts with seas 48 ft way up at 53.5N 150.75W aimed east. The gale to fade from there and east of the CA swell window just off the coast of Canada.

Oahu: Swell fading on Tues (11/5) from 2.9 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325 degrees

North CA: Swell fading some Tues AM (11/5) from 5.1 ft @ 15 secs early (7.5 ft). Residuals on Wed AM (11/6) from 2.8 ft @ 13 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300-310 degrees

Southern CA: Swell peaking Tues AM (11/5) at 2.2 ft @ 16 secs early at only the most exposed breaks (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed AM (11/6) from 1.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) Swell Direction: 305-315 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulomne Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level between 10,500-12,000 ft through Mon (11/11) then down to 7,000 ft on early Tues (11/12) before rising back as before. At the intersection level (8,700 ft) temps to be 35-45 degs through Mon AM (11/11) then falling briefly to 25-30 degs early Tues (11/12) then back to 35-45 degs beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest are occurring and no swell is in the water tracking towards Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri AM (11/8) a gale is forecast developing off North Japan with 40-45 kts northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 53.25N 162.5E aimed east and southeast. In the evening northwest winds are to be 35 kts over a solid area approaching the dateline with seas 28 ft at 41.75N 172.5E aimed southeast. Fetch to regroup some Sat AM (11/9) in the far Western Gulf at 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft on the dateline at 45N 178.25W aimed east. Fetch to track east in the evening at 35+ kts with seas 26 ft at 44N 168W aimed east. Fetch rebuilds Sun AM (11/10) at 40-45 kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 26 ft at 47.5N 156W aimed southeast. Fetch to build in the evening to 45 kts aimed southeast filling a good portion of the Gulf with seas 33 ft at 46N 150W aimed southeast targeting mainly the US West Coast. Fetch falling southeast off Oregon Mon AM (11/11) at 40-45 kts with seas 38 ft at 45.5N 142.5W aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 35 kts off North Ca and South Oregon with 31 ft seas at 42.25N 137W off the OR-CA border. Something to monitor.

On Sun AM (11/10) a gale is forecast developing off Central Japan with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 36 ft at 35N 161.5E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well from a westerly angle. In the evening northwest winds build to 50-55 kts with seas 39 ft at 36.5N 166.5E approaching the dateline still aimed southeast. Fetch fading Mon AM (11/11) at 35-40 kts on the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 34N 175W aimed southeast targetting Hawaii well. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather system of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

La Nina Become Apparent
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/3) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral to weak west over the far East equatorial Pacific and light east over the Central Pacific and light east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/4) Today moderate west anomalies were mostly filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests east anomalies are to start building in the east on 11/5 filling the KWGA on 11/7 and east anomalies are continue filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 11/20. It seems like the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/4) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was back reaching east to 172E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1-2 degrees in the East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were centered subsurface down 125m at 140W reaching to the surface between 130W to 152W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 160W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. But, the density of that cold water was significantly less than days and weeks past with the density of warm anomalies west of there building especially west of 150E. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 175W with -10 cms in 2 pockets at 105W and between 125W-145W. No -15 cm anomalies were indicated. It appears the cool pool is holding steady if not weakening. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (10/30) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is holding extending west to 155W but with no colder center and if anything the core is less pronounced than even a week ago. A clear La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting warmer near 135E. The Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/3) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline and uniform in density over that area but not super strong. The current pulse of cooling surface waters are steady. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/3): A full stream of warming waters were mostly filling the equatorial Pacific. It seems the current Active Phase of the MJO is repressing development of cold upwelling on the equator.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps have fallen as far as a previous reading 9/27, then rebuilt slightly today to -1.245 previous falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/4) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising steadily to -0.601 after being steady near -1.0 degs since falling to -1.049 on 9/21 and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.2 week of 10/30. Previously temps were -0.5 (1023), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.45 mid-Oct. Temps are not actually falling as fast as forecast.
Forecast (11/4) - Temps to fall to -0.85 Nov, peaking down at -1.15 degs Dec-Jan before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same trend but with temps to -1.00 degs in Dec rising to 0.9 degs in Jan. None of this is believable since the model even a week ago indicated temps would fall way more than the actually did in Oct. But even with that error, the model indicates we are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 18, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.470 degs today and is the 5th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.533 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to -0.091 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.597 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.533 in Jan. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/4) the Daily Index was negative at 11.01 today and has been negative the last 7 days, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was falling some at 3.94 and has been mostly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at 3.61 and generally neutral the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table