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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, November 5, 2019 4:32 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
1.5 - California & 3.2 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 11/4 thru Sun 11/10

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Pair of Small Gales Forecast
Possible Stronger and Larger Dateline Gale Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, November 5, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) At Barbers Point (238) Seas were 4.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 12.4 secs from 302 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.1 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 12.4 secs from 333 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 1.8 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 11.8 secs from 182 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.4 ft @ 9.1 secs from 304 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 0.7 ft @ 11.4 secs from 226 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 13.1 secs from 205 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 0.7 ft @ 14.6 secs from 213 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 3.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 2.6 ft @ 8.6 secs from 325 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 4-8 kts. Water temp 52.5 degs (013) and 57.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (11/5) in North and Central CA minimal local windswell was barely showing with set waves rarely at thigh to waist high on the sets and soft with clean conditions and no wind early but lot's of fog. Protected breaks were knee to waist high and weak and soft but clean and covered in fog. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and clean. In North Orange Co tiny swell from the southern hemi was producing waves at thigh to waist high and weak and rare but clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were tiny with a few waves at thigh to maybe waist high and clean and inconsistent. North San Diego was flat and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting swell from a gale previously north of the Islands with waves head high to 1-2 ft overhead and lined up and clean. The South Shore was thigh to waist high and soft and clean. The East Shore was getting wrap around northwest swell with waves chest to shoulder high and clean with no wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (11/5) in California no swell was hitting. But for Hawaii a cutoff low previously developed 1000 nmiles north-northwest of the Islands Sat-Sun (11/3) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed south resulting in swell that is hitting now. the model now suggest a small gale developing in the Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (11/8) with 34-34 ft seas aimed mostly east. Another small gale is to develop on the dateline falling southeast Thurs-Fri (11/8) with 24-26 ft seas targeting Hawaii. And maybe a stronger and broader system is to develop on the dateline a week out. Also a small gale developed south of Tahiti Sun-Mon (11/4) with up to 40 ft seas aimed north and northeast. Small swell is radiating north. Otherwise nothing to follow. The focus continues to be the Northern Hemisphere.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (11/5) the jetstream was tracking east off Japan with winds to 160 kts forming a trough just off the Northern Kuril Islands offering some minimal support for gale development but with the jet quickly splitting just west of the dateline with the northern branch pushing up into the Bering Sea and the southern branch falling weakly southeast into a pinched trough with it's apex just northwest of Hawaii being fed by 120 kts winds but not offering anything in terms of support for gale development. East of there the jet split yet again with both streams fading and offering nothing. Over the next 72 hours the split on the dateline is to quickly fade and by Thurs (11/7) the northern branch is to become consolidated pushing over the dateline with winds 150 kts and starting to fall into a developing trough in the Central Gulf. East of there the jet is to split at 140W with the northern branch ridging north some but not as strongly as the month before and pushing into Washington and the southern branch pushing into Baja. By Fri (11/8) the trough is to significantly broaden filling the Gulf and starting to be fed by a broad area of 140-150 kts winds offering improved support for gale development focused 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to build and deepen getting pinched on Sun (11/10) being fed by 160-170 kts winds with it's apex 300 nmiles north of Hawaii offering good support for gale development. By Monday (11/11) the trough is to become totally pinched off no longer offering support for gale development. At the same time winds are to be pushing solidly west off Japan on the 34N latitude line at 120 kts reaching to the dateline forming another trough just west of the dateline and that trough building while pushing east into Tues (11/12) also reaching the Western Gulf at that time offering good support for gale development. And additional winds are to be pushing off Japan at 130-140 kts offering yet more potential beyond. Maybe Fall will finally start.


Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (11/5) swell from a gale previously in the Western Gulf was hitting Hawaii (see West Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Western Gulf on Wed PM (11/6) generating a small area of 30-35 kt northwest winds falling southeast. On Thurs AM (11/7) the gale is to build some with 35+ kt northwest winds building in coverage but still only over a smallish area with seas 23 ft at 44N 163W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be tracking east with 35-40 kt west winds over a small area and seas building to 29 ft at 44.5N 156.5W aimed east. On Fri AM (11/8) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts over a small area aimed east with seas fading from 24 ft at 45.5N 152W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Primary target is to be the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

Also another gale is to be developing west of the Northern Dateline region Thurs AM (11/7) with 40 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 22 ft at 49N 170E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 35 kt northwest winds over a modest sized area and 25 ft seas at 46.5N 176E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (11/8) with northwest winds dropping from 30 kts and seas fading from 21 ft at 43N 179W. The gale to dissipate from there. Primary target is to be Hawaii.

 

West Gulf Gale
A small gale developed 1200 nmiles northwest of HAwaii on Fri PM (11/1) producing a tiny area of 45 kt north winds with seas starting to build. On Sat (11/2) the gale fell southeast some positioned 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii producing 40-45+ kt north winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38N 166.5W aimed southeast. The gale fell southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 35.5N 168W targeting the Islands well. On Sun AM (11/3) north winds were fading from 30-35 kts but over a larger area with 23-24 ft seas at 33.5N 164W aimed southeast and targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to fade in in the evening with northwest winds 30 kts holding 900 nmiles north of the Islands with seas fading from 18-20 ft over a moderate size area at 35N 160W aimed south to southeast. On Mon AM (11/4) the gale is to be fading with 30 kt west winds in the gales south quadrant aimed east with seas 18 ft at 37N 155W aimed east at California. This system is to dissipate from there. Swell is expected to radiate southeast towards mainly Hawaii.

Hawaii: Swell fading some on Tues (11/5) from 5.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell to continue downward on Wed (11/6) fading from 4.2 ft @ 10-11 secs (4.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (11/7) fading from 3.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Low odds of swell arriving on Thurs (11/7) pushing 2.8 ft @ 12 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/8) from 2.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees

 

Windswell Outlook
On Tuesday (11/5) a steady area of north winds at 15 kts is forecast holding off Cape Mendocino producing bare minimal north windswell down into Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii offering no windswell production potential. More of the same is forecast on Wed (11/6) relative to North CA but with north winds building to maybe 20 kts. For Hawaii easterly fetch is to be building southeast of the Islands at 15+ kts with east winds 15 kts also 400-1800 nmiles east of all the Islands perhaps starting to produce windswell radiating west into exposed east facing breaks. On Thurs (11/7) north winds to dissipate over North CA waters with no windswell production potential forecast for CA and east fetch is to dissipate east of Hawaii. Maybe some windswell to still be hitting attributable to previous fetch relative to HI. On Friday (11/8) no windswell production is forecast for CA or HI.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
Super Typhoon Halong on Tues AM (11/5) Super Typhoon Halong was tracking north-northwest in the far West Pacific with sustained winds at 135 kts (155 mph). Halong is to continue northward into Wed AM (11/6) and start fading with winds down to 115 kts (132 mph) then making a turn to the northeast. By Fri AM (11/8) Halong is to be barely a typhoon status with winds 65 kts and accelerating off the northeast from 25.5N 154.5E. The GFS model has Halong getting sheared apart on Sat (11/9) with no identifiable circulation center remaining. But remnant energy from it could help fuel development of a broad gale forecast forming right behind it on the dateline (See Long Term Forecast below).

California Nearshore Forecast
On Tuesday (11/5) light winds were occurring along the California coast and forecast holding all day. For Wed (11/8) light winds are forecast for everywhere but north at 15-20 kts just off the coast of Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena. On Thurs (11/7) light winds become established for all of California holding on Fri (11/8). No change on Sat (11/9) except north winds building to 15 kts in the afternoon over Pt Conception holding into Sun AM (11/10) and also building over Cape Mendocino at 20 kts. Mon (11/11) north winds are forecast at 20 kts over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena then suddenly evaporating mid-morning. Light winds on Tues (11/12). No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring. Swell from a small gale previously south of Tahiti is tracking north towards Hawaii (see Small Central Pacific Gale below).  

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

Small Central Pacific Gale
A small gale developed on Sun PM (11/3) east of Northern New Zealand and south of Tahiti producing 45 kt south winds over a small area aimed north with seas building from 24 ft at 38N 160W. On Mon AM (11/4) fetch held position and built in coverage at 40 kts from the south and southwest with seas building to 30 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Small swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (11/9) with swell building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later. Swell peaking on Sun (11/10) at 3.1 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (11/11) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (11/12) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is forecast developing on the dateline fueled by the remnants of Super Typhoon Halong with 40-45 kt north west winds and seas building from 22 ft at 36N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds are forecast with the gael lifting northeast and seas building from 42 ft at 44N 177.5W aimed east to southeast. Tues AM (11/12) west winds are to be 50 kts over a solid area with seas 45 ft at 45.5N 172 W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 45 kts from the northwest with seas fading from 34 ft over a solid area aimed east at 45N 175W. Something to monitor.

Windswell Outlook
On Sat-Sun (11/9) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for HI or CA. On Monday (11/11) a small area of north winds at 20 kts is forecast off North CA extending south to Pt Arena perhaps generating small windswell for exposed breaks in North and Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii. On Tues (11/12) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for either CA or HI.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Building - Kelvin Wave #5 Tracking East

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/4) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA on the dateline to 160E then turning light westerly west of there. Anomalies were light easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning quickly neutral and continuing that way over the Central Pacific then moderate easterly on the dateline to 165E then turning quickly light westerly from 160E and points west of there.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/5) easterly anomalies were strong on the dateline to 160E but west anomalies were equally as strong developing at 155E and points west of there today. The forecast is for east anomalies holding strong on the dateline till 11/8 then quickly evaporating while west anomalies hold solid at 150E through the end of the model run on 11/12 with weaker west anomalies pushing east and almost filling the KWGA at the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (11/4) A building Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today and filling it. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA at day 5 then fading some at day 10 and then pushing east over the dateline at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing. The 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/5) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was modest over the far Eastern Maritime Continent and is to migrate through the West Pacific and collapsing at day 15 to weak status over the Central Pacific. The GEFS model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase building to moderate strength days 3-9 over the far West Pacific.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/5) This model depicts a strong Active MJO was over the West Pacific today with a very weak Inactive signal over Central America and fading out. The Active Pattern is to track east pushing into the Central Pacific still strong on 11/18 then fading while pushing into Central America on 11/30. A strong Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 11/20 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/15. And a new moderate Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific 12/8 tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/4) This model depicts moderate west anomalies in the KWGA today pushing east to 170E with the Active Phase of the MJO building east but with solid east anomalies holding on the dateline. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate strength in the West Pacific and start building east filling the KWGA 11/9 holding through 11/15 and moving over the entire equatorial Pacific through 11/21. Beyond weak west anomalies are to hold in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/2 but with the Inactive Phase of the MJO building in the Indian Ocean.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/6) This model depicts an Inactive MJO quickly exiting the KWGA to the east today. The Active Phase Phase of the MJO was building over the far West KWGA with west anomalies stating to fill the KWGA today. The Active Phase is to build over then KWGA 11/8 and hold through 11/21 with west anomalies forecast in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to develop 11/21 holding through 12/6 followed by another Active Phase 12/7-12/23 with west anomalies holding during the Inactive Phase and rebuilding solidly on the subsequent Active Phase. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop 12/25 in the West Pacific tracking east and holding through the end of the model run on 2/2 but with a weak west anomalies fading out on 1/18 and neutral anomalies following. Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/29 easing east to 90E then weakening some while tracking east and moving into the KWGA in early January moving to 160E on 1/14 and fading out by the end of the model run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but disappeared from the model a month ago, but now is back starting 12/20 fading out on 2/1. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/5) Today in the far West Pacific water temps at 31 degrees reaching east previously to 162E have disappeared. The 30 deg isotherm backtracking to 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was also backtracking to 173W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was retrograding from 152W to 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 107W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 172E and a broader one at +3 degs centered at 125W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. Cooler waters previously were easing east down 150-200 meters reaching east to 110W had now retrograded west from 150W to 155W and looking far less concerning than before. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east to 90W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W just off Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present limited between 150W to 90W at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru. No anomalies were under the dateline.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/4) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru but with weak warm anomalies along Ecuador and almost building west over the Galapagos. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today and only weakly present mainly between 80W to 100W both north and south of the equator.  
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/4): Today a small weak pocket of warming temps was present between Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 100W and weaker out to 120W. A neutral trend was west of there on the equator. And a weak pocket of warming was pushing off Chile and Peru west to 90W. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming.
Hi-res Overview: (11/4) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator just touching the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/5) Today's temps were rising up to -0.585 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(11/3) Temps were falling some today but mostly stable at +0.195 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/4) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast falling to +0.2 degs on Jan 1 then slowly rising to +0.5 degs May 1 2020, then fading to +0.20 July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/3): The daily index was negative today at -34.49 and has been mostly negative the last 14 days. The 30 day average was negative and falling some today at -5.28. The 90 day average was falling some at -7.64, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (11/3):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqUnsZ8YyLw&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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