Thursday, November 7, 2019
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai) At Barbers Point (238) Seas were 2.9 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 11.2 secs from 283 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 11.1 secs from 331 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.0 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.2 ft @ 13.3 secs from 224 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 0-2 kts. Water temperature 64.6 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 258 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 13.3 secs from 242 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.7 ft @ 16.0 secs from 200 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.7 secs from 207 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 3.0 ft @ 13.2 secs from 281 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was south at 2-4 kts. Water temp 54.7 degs (013) and 60.1 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (11/7) in North and Central CA Gulf swell was hitting producing waves at head high and fairly clean and lined up but with a bit of windswell lump intermixed. Protected breaks were waist high and clean and soft with fog off the deck. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat and real clean. In North Orange Co tiny leftover swell was producing waves at occasionally thigh high and weak but clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were small with some sets in the waist to chest high range and peeling off and clean but soft. North San Diego was waist high and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was getting leftover swell from a gale previously north of the Islands with waves chest to maybe head high at top breaks but pretty warbled from northeast windbump. The South Shore was thigh high and soft and clean. The East Shore was getting northeast windswell at thigh high and nearly chopped from northeast wind.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (11/7) in California limited westerly swell was hitting from a cutoff low previously 1000 nmiles north-northwest of the Islands Sat-Sun (11/3) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed south to southeast. The last remnants of this swell were hitting Hawaii too. The models suggest a small gale was developing in the Western Gulf Thurs-Fri (11/8) with up to 22 ft seas forecast aimed mostly east. Another small gale is to develop on the dateline falling southeast Thurs-Fri (11/8) with 22 ft seas over a small area targeting Hawaii. And maybe a stronger and broader system is to develop in the Western Gulf Mon-Wed (11/13) with up to 47 ft seas aimed east. And another gael is to follow pushing over the dateline on Thurs (11/14) with 25 ft seas over a broader area aimed southeast. Down south a small gale developed below Tahiti Sun-Mon (11/4) with up to 30 ft seas aimed north and northeast. Small swell is radiating north. Otherwise nothing to follow. The focus continues to be the Northern Hemisphere.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday (11/7) the jetstream was tracking east off Japan consolidated with winds to 120 kts pushing flat east over the dateline then building to 150 kts and starting to fall into a weak trough over the Central Gulf offering some support for gale development there. East of the trough at 140W the jet split heavily with the northern branch pushing hard north then pushing into British Columbia while the southern branch limped over Baja. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to fade then start rebuilding back north of Hawaii on Fri (11/8) while winds build to 170 kts west of the dateline then spilling into the Hawaiian trough starting to offer support for gale development there. At the time the jet is to fully consolidated over the width of the North Pacific with the trough deepening north of Hawaii into Sun (11/10) being fed by 160 kts winds continuing to support gale development. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to pinch off on Mon (11/11) north of Hawaii while a new trough forms on the dateline and further north tracking east into Tues (11/12) and being fed by 160 kts winds offering good support for gale development. By Thurs (11/14) the jet is to be loosing coherency in the east through still consolidated but with 190 kts winds building while ridging northeast over Japan then falling southeast to the dateline at 170 kts starting to form a trough again offering support for gale development. It looks like Fall might finally start.
On Thursday (11/11) swell from a gale previously in the Western Gulf was hitting California and fading in Hawaii (see West Gulf Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours a gale is to be tracking through the Gulf (see Small Gulf Gale below).
Also another gale is to be developing west of the Northern Dateline region starting Thurs AM (11/7) with 35-40 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 19 ft at 50N 170E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to fall southeast with 35 kt northwest winds over a small sized area and 21 ft seas at 47.5N 176.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading Fri AM (11/8) with northwest winds dropping from 30 kts and seas fading from 20 ft at 44N 179W. The gale to dissipate from there. Primary target is to be Hawaii.
West Gulf Gale
A small gale developed 1200 nmiles northwest of HAwaii on Fri PM (11/1) producing a tiny area of 45 kt north winds with seas starting to build. On Sat (11/2) the gale fell southeast some positioned 900 nmiles northwest of Hawaii producing 40-45+ kt north winds and seas building from 26 ft at 38N 166.5W aimed southeast. The gale fell southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 28 ft at 35.5N 168W targeting the Islands well. On Sun AM (11/3) north winds were fading from 30-35 kts but over a larger area with 23-24 ft seas at 33.5N 164W aimed southeast and targeting Hawaii well. Fetch is to fade in in the evening with northwest winds 30 kts holding 900 nmiles north of the Islands with seas fading from 18-20 ft over a moderate size area at 35N 160W aimed south to southeast. On Mon AM (11/4) the gale is to be fading with 30 kt west winds in the gales south quadrant aimed east with seas 18 ft at 37N 155W aimed east at California. This system is to dissipate from there. Swell is expected to radiate southeast towards mainly Hawaii.
Hawaii: Dribbles on Thurs (11/7) fading from 3.8 ft @ 10-11 secs (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees
North CA: Low odds of swell arriving on Thurs (11/7) pushing 2.8 ft @ 12 secs later (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/8) from 2.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 275 degrees
Small Gulf Gale
A small gale started developing in the Western Gulf on Wed PM (11/6) generating a small area of 30-35 kt northwest winds falling southeast with seas 20 ft over a small area at 46N 170W. On Thurs AM (11/7) the gale is to hold with 30-35 kt northwest winds building in coverage but still only over a smallish area with seas 21 ft at 44N 165W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be tracking east and fading fast with 30 kt west winds over a small area and seas fading from 19 ft at 43N 160W aimed east. the gale is to be gone by Fri AM (11/8). Primary target is to be the US West Coast. Something to monitor.
No local windswell forecast for Hawaii or California for the next 72 hours other than building 15 kt northwest winds along the North and Central CA coast on Sun (11/10). Further out a low pressure system is forecast forming in the Central Gulf Sat PM (11/9) producing a solid area of 25 kt west winds and 14 ft seas at 36N 146W aimed east. On Sun AM (11/10) 30-35 kt west to southwest winds are to be lifting northeast off North CA with 15 ft seas at 41N 147W aimed east. the low is to be lifting northeast in the evening with 30 kt west winds in the Northern Gulf with 18 ft seas at 51N 145W aimed east. the low is to fade from there. Low odds of windswell radiating east.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Super Typhoon Halong on Tues AM (11/5) Super Typhoon Halong was tracking north-northwest in the far West Pacific with sustained winds at 135 kts (155 mph). Halong continued northward into Wed AM (11/6) then started fading with winds down to 115 kts (132 mph) while making a turn to the northeast. By Fri AM (11/8) Halong is to be down to tropical storm status with winds 60 kts and accelerating off the northeast from 28N 154.5E. The GFS model has Halong getting sheared apart on Sat (11/9) with no identifiable circulation center remaining. But remnant energy from it could help fuel development of a broad gale forecast forming right behind it on the dateline (See Long Term Forecast below).
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/7) light winds were occurring along the California coast and forecast holding all day continuing on Fri (11/8). No change on Sat (11/9) except north winds building to 15 kts in the afternoon over all of the North and Central Coast building in coverage and depth Sun AM (11/10) and building over Cape Mendocino at 20 kts later. Mon (11/11) north winds are forecast at 20 kts over Cape Mendocino down to Pt Arena and extending south well off the Central Coast fading to 15 kts over Cape Mendocino later. Light winds on Tues-Thurs (11/14) with winds turning south 10-15 kts for NOrth Ca in the afternoon. No precipitation forecast over the entire period with high pressure in control.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts).
No swell producing fetch is occurring. Swell from a small gale previously south of Tahiti is tracking north towards Hawaii (see Small Central Pacific Gale below).
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.
Small Central Pacific Gale
A small gale developed on Sun PM (11/3) east of Northern New Zealand and south of Tahiti producing 45 kt south winds over a small area aimed north with seas building from 24 ft at 38N 160W. On Mon AM (11/4) fetch held position and built in coverage at 40 kts from the south and southwest with seas building to 30 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 26-28 ft at 35S 157W aimed northeast. The gale faded from there. Small swell is radiating northeast towards Hawaii and the US West Coast.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat (11/9) with swell building through the day to 2.0 ft @ 15 secs later. Swell peaking on Sun (11/10) at 3.1 ft @ 14 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading some on Mon (11/11) from 2.9 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Residuals on Tues (11/12) fading from 2.2 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a broad gale is forecast developing in the far Western Gulf fueled by the remnants of Super Typhoon Halong on Mon AM (11/11) with 40 kt west winds and seas building from 20 ft at 39N 171W aimed east. In the evening 55 kt west winds are forecast with the gale lifting northeast and seas building from 28 ft at 45N 167.5W aimed east. Tues AM (11/12) west winds are to be 55-60 kts over a solid area in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 46 ft at 46.5N 162W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 50 kts from the west with seas fading from 36 ft over a solid area aimed east at 48N 159W. The gale is to be fading Wed AM (11/13) in the Northwestern Gulf with 45 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 32 ft at 49N 162W aimed east. fetch fading from 40 kts from the west in the evening with seas fading from 29 ft at 50N 157W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.
And yet another gale is to be developing Wed AM (11/13) just off the Kuril Islands with 40 kt west wind in patches and seas 26 ft at 46.5N 161E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be falling southeast over the Western Pacific with 35-40 kt northwest winds over a decent sized area and 29-30 ft seas at 48N 165E aimed east-southeast. The gale is to falling southeast fast on Thurs AM (11/14) with northwest winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 41N 172E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be getting more consolidated in the evening over the dateline at 30-35 kts over a broad area with seas 26 ft at 39N 178E aimed southeast. Additional development possible beyond.
On Monday (11/11) a small area of north winds at 20 kts is forecast off North CA extending south to Pt Arena perhaps generating small windswell for exposed breaks in North and Central CA. No easterly fetch is forecast for Hawaii. Tues-Thurs (11/14) no windswell producing fetch is forecast for either CA or HI. But a small low pressure system is forecast pushing into North CA outer waters Thurs PM (11/14) generating 30 kt northwest winds off the coast.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.
Active MJO Building - Kelvin Wave #5 Tracking East - ENSO Neutral Prevails
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/6) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong over the KWGA on the dateline to 160E then dying to calm west of there. Anomalies were light easterly over the far East equatorial Pacific turning quickly neutral and continuing that way over the Central Pacific then moderate easterly on the dateline building some too 165E then turning quickly fading to neutral west of 160E and points west of there.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/7) easterly anomalies were strong on the dateline to 160E but west anomalies were equally if not stronger from 155E and points west of there today. The forecast calls for east anomalies holding strong on the dateline till 11/9 then quickly evaporating while west anomalies hold solid at 150E through 11/11 then fading with weak west anomalies building east over the dateline through the end of the model run on 11/14. But at that time a neutral wind anomaly pattern is forecast filling the KWGA.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/6) A building Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today and filling it. The statistic model indicates the Active Phase is to hold over the KWGA through day 15 but weakening just slightly over that duration. The dynamic model indicates the Active MJO pattern fading on day 10 while moving to the dateline and fading there at day 15 while the Inactive Phase starts building over the West Pacific.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/7) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate over the far Eastern Maritime Continent and is to migrate into the West Pacific while fading some at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase building to moderate status at day 5 over the West Pacific then racing east while fading and in the Western Indian Ocean at day 15 and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (11/7) This model depicts a modest Active MJO over the Central Pacific today. The Active Pattern is to track east pushing into the Central America still modest in strength on 11/27. A strong Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 11/20 tracking east while holding strength pushing into Central America at the end of the model run on 12/17. And a new moderate Active Phase is to be starting moving over the West Pacific 12/7 tracking east into the Central Pacific on 12/17.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/6) This model depicts moderate west anomalies over the KWGA today pushing east to 170E with the Active Phase of the MJO building east but with solid east anomalies holding on the dateline. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold at moderate strength in the West Pacific and start building east filling the KWGA 11/9 holding through 11/15 and moving over the entire equatorial Pacific through 11/21. Beyond weak west anomalies are to hold in the KWGA through the end of the model run on 12/4 but with the Inactive Phase of the MJO building in the Indian Ocean.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7) This model depicts an Inactive MJO all but gone exiting east out of the KWGA today. The Active Phase Phase of the MJO was building over the far West KWGA with west anomalies stating to fill the Western KWGA today. The Active Phase is to build over then KWGA 11/9 and holding through 11/23 with west anomalies forecast in the KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to develop 11/21 holding through 12/6 followed by another weak Active Phase 12/7-12/25 with west anomalies holding during the Inactive Phase and rebuilding solidly on the subsequent Active Phase. A weak Inactive Phase is to develop 12/25 in the West Pacific tracking east and holding through 1/24 with weak west anomalies nearly fading out on 1/10 and mostly neutral anomalies following through the end of the model run on 2/4. Strong east anomalies are in the core of the Indian Ocean today at 80E and are to hold solid through 12/29 easing east to 90E then weakening some while tracking east and moving into the KWGA in early January moving to 170E on 1/14 then fading out and gone by the end of the model run. The low pass filter changed on 7/25 and is holding today with a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to California. A third contour line was to develop on 12/1 but has disappeared and reappeared periodically over the past month. It was gone today. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run. This model indicates that a weak El Nino like pattern is to possibly rebuild. That is not believable given all current observations concerning subsurface and surface water temperature anomaly pattern over the equatorial Pacific.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/7) Today in the far West Pacific water temps previously at 31 degrees reaching east to 162E have disappeared. The 30 deg isotherm was backtracking to 174E while the 29 deg isotherm was also backtracking to 174W today. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm moved east on 10/20 from 120W to 107W and is holding there today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at +2 degs pushing east from the Maritime Continent to 172E and a broader one at +3 degs centered at 110W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 10/30 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east to 90W with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with cool anomalies from 90W just off Ecuador drawing up from depth to the surface and being forced east by the Kelvin Wave. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (10/30) A shrinking area of positive anomalies was present limited between 150W to 90W at +5 cms. Negative anomalies were all but gone along Peru. No anomalies were under the dateline.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/6) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate cool anomalies were steady along Peru but with weak warm anomalies along Ecuador and almost building west over the Galapagos. Warm water was steady in a few pockets 1 deg north of the equator from the Galapagos west to 100W and stronger and continuous west of there. Weak cool anomalies were mostly south of the equator from Ecuador to 100W. There has been a steady evaporation of El Nino in the East equatorial Pacific south of the equator this summer but that pattern is stabilized today and only weakly present mainly between 80W to 100W both north and south of the equator.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/6): Today a small weak pocket of warming temps was present between Ecuador over the Galapagos out to 120W. A neutral trend was west of there on the equator. And a weak pocket of warming was pushing off Chile and Peru west to 90W. The short term trend is now towards at best weak warming but mainly just neutral.
Hi-res Overview: (11/6) A weak La Nina like cool pool is holding mainly south of the equator off Peru reaching north to the equator just touching the Galapagos. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there mainly north of the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. El Nino appears to be in retreat but La Nina does not appear to be building and if anything retreating. A neutral coupled water/atmospheric pattern appears to be setting up.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) Today's temps were rising up to -0.562 after previously dropping to -1.921 degs on 10/10, that after falling to -1.8 degs on 9/15, then up to +0.030 on 10/2. Temps have been pretty consistently negative since June 1.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/7) Temps were steady today after falling some but mostly stable at +0.120 degs after previously bottoming out on 8/28 at -0.510 degs and 9/15 at -0.60 degs. The trend has been generally upwards since Sept.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/4) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct. The forecast has temps rising reaching +0.5 degs by Oct 31 and then forecast falling to +0.2 degs on Jan 1 then slowly rising to +0.5 degs May 1 2020, then fading to +0.20 July 1. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the mid-term, possibly turning neutral after that.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/7): The daily index was positive today at +15.84 but had been mostly negative the last 15 days. The 30 day average was negative but rising at -4.69. The 90 day average was falling some at -8.01, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table