Thursday, November 8, 2018
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.9 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 15.1 secs from 206 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.4 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 3.6 ft @ 11.4 secs from 328 degrees.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 11.5 secs from 247 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southeast at 4-8 kts. Water temperature 67.5 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 2.3 ft @ 10.5 secs from 269 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 11.7 secs from 246 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 12.1 secs from 212 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 11.8 secs from 251 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.6 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 6.6 ft @ 8.8 secs from 323 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was northwest at 4-8 kts. Water temp 54.9 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Thursday (11/8) in North and Central CA locally generated northwest windswell was producing waves to chest high on the sets and soft with some northerly lump running through it with light barely offshore winds from the north-northeast. Protected breaks were waist to chest high and mushed with a little warble intermixed but with relatively clean surface conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was flat to knee high high and clean. In North Orange Co waves were maybe waist high and breaking on the beach and clean. South Orange Country's best breaks were flat and clean. In North San Diego surf was waist high and clean and lined up and actually rideable. Hawaii's North Shore was getting rideable windswell with waves head high to 1 ft overhead on the sets at top breaks and clean and lined up. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves waist high and lightly textured from light southeast winds.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Thursday (11/8) no real swell of interest was hitting California. Hawaii was getting minimal northwest windswell from a cutoff low previously north of the Islands. Looking forward another cutoff gale is developing north of Hawaii Thurs-Fri (11/9) producing 18-20 ft seas aimed well south. More windswell is expected for the Islands. And a gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf of Alaska falling southeast Sat-Mon (11/12) with seas building to 26 ft then pushing east Tues-Wed (11/14) with seas 20-22 ft aimed east. Possible small swell to result for Hawaii and exposed breaks in California. Otherwise a fading Inactive Phase of the MJO is to keep a cap on swell development for about 1 more week.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Thursday AM (11/8) the jetstream was weak and incoherent, but generally split pushing off North Japan with the southern branch tracking east on the 30N latitude line while the northern branch was pushing east on the 50N latitude line both tracking to the dateline then the north branch falling southeast and merging with the southern branch over a tiny area just north of Hawaii forming a trough there, then splitting again with the northern branch pushing into North Canada and the southern branch pushing over Baja. Winds across the entirety of the jet were very weak never exceeding more than 110 kts in 2 small pockets. There was no real support for gale development but there was some support for low pressure development in the aforementioned trough. Over the next 72 hours the same basic pattern is to hold with the trough north of Hawaii remaining in place. Then on Fri PM (11/9) winds to build in the northern branch to 130 kts over the dateline and starting to fall into the pre-existing trough and building to 140 kts on Sun (11/11) offering much better support for gale development in that trough with wind and the trough pushing east over the Central Gulf while fading on Mon (11/12). Beyond 72 hours starting Tues (11/13) the trough is to wash out with the jet going back to a split pattern with the northern branch generally tracking east on the 45N latitude line and the southern branch on the 30N latitude line. A bit of a trough is to try and be organizing over Japan with the 2 branches merged there, but quickly splitting as the jet pushes east over the West Pacific. The same pattern is to hold into Thurs (11/15) but with the trough moving east some just off Japan and perhaps another trough is to develop in the northern branch over the Northern Gulf of Alaska with winds to 1140 kts starting to fall into it. In short, the Inactive Phase of the MJO is suppressing wind energy injection into the jetstream causing it to split and making it non-supportive of gale development. But as the Inactive Phase weakens, potential for trough development is to increase.
On Thursday AM (11/8) some windswell was arriving in Hawaii from a fetch previously north of the Islands (see QuikCASTs).
Over the next 72 hours a small fetch started developing 750 nmiles north of Hawaii on Wed PM (11/7) associated with a cutoff low pressure system there producing 35 kt north winds over a tiny area aimed south with seas building. On Thurs AM (11/8) the gale was building producing 35-40 kt northeast winds over a small area with 18 ft seas at 37N 160W aimed south-southwest and somewhat targeting Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35 kts over a decent sized area with 20 ft seas aimed south at 36N 160W. On Fri AM winds to fade from 30 kts aimed south over a decent sized area with seas fading from 19 ft at 35N 161W. By evening the gale is to be fading out.
Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Sat AM (11/10) with swell 5.6 ft @ 12 secs (6.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continue on Sun (11/11) at 6.2 ft @ 11 secs (6.5 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/12) from 5.4 ft @ 10-11 secs (5.5 ft) early. Swell Direction: 350 degrees
On Sat PM (11/10) a new gale is to be developing falling southeast from the Central Aleutians over the Western Gulf with winds 30 kts over a solid area with a tiny core to near 40 kts with seas 24 ft over a small area at 47N 169W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/11) the gale is to build more with a decent fetch of 35 kts extending southeast from the Aleutians with a tiny core to 45 kts and seas 24-26 ft at 49N 172W aimed southeast targeting mainly Hawaii. In the evening fetch is to build over a broad area at 35-40 kts extending from the Aleutians southeast to a point 1000 nmiles north of Hawaii with seas 29 ft over a reasonably broad area aimed southeast. On Mon AM (11/12) northwest winds to hold at 35-40 kts aimed more east now and over no as large and area with seas to 31 ft @ 47.5N 163.5W aimed southeast. In the evening west winds are to be 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 47N 155.5W aimed southeast. On Tues AM (11/13) the gael is to track east with winds 35 kts from the west with seas 25 ft at 47N 151W aimed east. The gale is to fade fast from there while tracking northeast with seas 24 ft at 51N 145W. The gale is to dissipate from there. Possible swell for Hawaii and the US West Coast if all comes to pass as forecast.
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (11/8) high pressure at 1034 mbs was pushing east over Washington generating a pressure gradient and producing north winds at 20-25 kts over Cape Mendocino producing north windswell down into Central CA with light winds 10 kts from Pt Arena southward. Friday (11/9) high pressure is to rebuild off British Columbia at 1032 mbs resulting in a light offshore flow over all of California with 20 kt northeast winds off Cape Mendocino with no windswell production expected. Saturday (11/10) high pressure is to move east just the Pacific Northwest generating a new gradient just off Cape Mendocino producing north winds at 25-30 kts starting to produce windswell. A light wind flow is forecast over all the rest of California. Then on Sun (11/11) low pressure is to be building in the Gulf with a front 900 nmiles off North CA and a weak wind pattern over and off the entire US West Coast. No windswell production is expected. The front is to lift north on Mon (11/12) and remain away from the US Coast with a weak pressure and wind pattern setting up. No change on Tues (11/13) with a weak pressure and wind pattern holding. Wed (11/14) weak high pressure is to set up off the CA coast ridging northeast into Washington with north winds 15 kts over North CA but not generating windswell and 10 kts over Central CA. Thursday (11/15) north winds to continue at 10-15 kts over and off North CA but far lighter over Central CA.
On Thursday (11/8) no swell of interest was in the water.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours a tiny gale is to develop in the Northeastern Gulf on Wed AM (11/14) producing 40-45 kt northwest winds with the gale lifting northeast and seas building in the evening to 35 ft at 52N 146W pushing east. Low odds of sideband swell for exposed breaks in California.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
No Signs of El Nino in the Atmosphere - Inactive MJO Supposedly Fading
The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).
Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and beyond, but could not sustain itself, suggesting the demise of La Nina but not yet turning towards El Nino.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2018 = 6.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino develops as forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes established in the Sept timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +1.0 deg range, there is good probability for enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with an increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/7) 5 day average winds were solid from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading while pushing towards the dateline, then light east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East and Central equatorial Pacific, then turning light westerly on the dateline then neutral over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/8) moderate west anomalies were over the core of the KWGA. The forecast has the same pattern holding for the next week but with east anomalies developing over the dateline 11/10-11/13 then fading with westerly anomalies again filling in and over the entirety of the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 11/15. This easterly wind event was previously not on any of the longer range models and suggests that El Nino is not developing as solidly as once predicted.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/7) A modest Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the West Pacific/KWGA. The Inactive Phase is to push east and slowly fade nearly east of the KWGA at day 5, then gone at day 8 with with the Active Phase of the MJO moving into the West Pacific and nearly filling it at day 15. The statistical model depicts a variation on the same theme but with the Active Phase dissipating before reaching meaningfully into the West Pacific at day 10 and then gone at the end of the model run. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/8) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moderately strong over the Indian Ocean and is to quickly fade to weak status 2 days out while tracking steadily east moving over the Maritime Continent reaching the West Pacific 2 weeks out and exceedingly weak. The GEFS model depicts a variation on the same thing. The 2 models are generally in sync.
40 day Upper Level Model: (11/8) This model depicts a moderate strength Inactive/Dry signal moving over Central America through 11/13. A very weak Active Phase is to push over the West Pacific 11/21 fading while pushing to the East Pacific and Central America on 12/3. After that a very weak Inactive Phase is to again set up over the West Pacific on 12/6 and track to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 12/18.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7) This model depicts east anomalies are retrograding east and of no interest anymore. Moderate west anomalies are to rebuild in the core of the KWGA by 11/9 holding in strength through 11/22 but then fading quickly. East anomalies are to move into the far Western KWGA on 11/22 and make steady eastward progress and again filling the KWGA on 11/28 and holding through the end of the model run on 12/5. This run suggests that no El Nino is to develop.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/8) This model depicts weak east anomalies were all but gone over the KWGA today with no clearly defined MJO signal present. After that weak west anomalies are to build modestly in the heart of the KWGA with no discernible MJO Phase present. West anomalies are to holding for the foreseeable future through 1/19/19. The MJO is to remain weak throughout though possibly build in the Active Phase with a possible WWB 12/18-1/15. The Inactive Phase is to build starting 1/4 through the end of the model run on 2/5 with westerly anomalies moving east over only the dateline with east anomalies building in the far West Pacific. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA reaching east over California to 115W and forecast holding beyond while slowly easing east, but still centered over the dateline at the end of the model run. A 4th contour line previously forecast to to develop in the 12/22-1/21/19 period is no longer depicted and we doubt it will return. We're beginning to think this whole El Nino setup is a bit overblown on this model and that it will not develop, or develop only weakly. The atmosphere and ocean are theoretically slowly becoming coupled towards an El Nino bias in the Pacific Ocean, but there's no objective evidence of it. If it hasn't happened yet (by Nov 1), it's doubtful there will be significant weather influence even if it does develop. Still this pattern is slowly becoming more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific regardless of whether El Nino develops, especially compared to the 2 previous years given that we're still moving towards Winter and La Nina is gone. Our assumption is a normal Winter pattern will result, but nothing more.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/8) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs solid steady today at 178E, having retrograded previously from 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W but today was moving east at 154W fropm156 on 11/6. The 24 deg isotherm was 125 meters deep at 140W then getting progressively shallower east of there but now pushing into Ecuador. It seems that Kelvin Wave #2 had already peaked in the West Pacific, and temps were retrograding, but today 11/8 they are surging east again. Anomaly wise warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific with Kelvin Wave (#2) extending from 175E at +3 degs building to +4.0 degs centered at 115W down 90 meters then pushing into the coast of Ecuador. This is likely the peak of the Kelvin Wave cycle for this El Nino. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 paints the same picture with the Second Kelvin Wave starting in the West Pacific near 175E pushing down under the dateline with building temps peaking at +4.0 degs at 115W and then pushing into Ecuador. A small pocket of neutral anomalies that was in the far West Pacific just east of the Maritime Continent appears to be getting warmer with warm anomalies now positioned at 135-140E and 100 meters down. Kelvin Wave #2 was breaching the surface from 100W to 145W solidly with secondary solid warm anomalies starting to fill the entire region on the equator from 100W-165E. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Positive anomalies were solid from north of New Guinea over the Dateline and into Ecuador and broad in coverage peaking at +10 cms from 105W-125W. This indicates that Kelvin Wave (#2) was peaking south of California and pushing quickly east. It was branching north to Baja and south to Southern Peru, a good sign.
Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/7) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were warm in a classic Kelvin Wave pattern straddling 5 degrees north and south of the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline, with imbedded pockets of slightly stronger warming. These temps were steady and still limited in coverage. There was minimal slight warming along the coast of Chile up into Peru, but nothing more than what has been occurring in days and week past. Generic warm anomalies were north of the equator from Central America and south of Mexico building out to Hawaii and the dateline. This pattern looks somewhat like El Nino, but also like La Nina with no solid warming branching north and south along the Central and South American coast, and most warming still in the West Pacific, suggesting this developing El Nino is only weakly in control at best and very fragile over the East equatorial Pacific.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/7): A weak warming trend was set up from Ecuador to the dateline on the equator with pockets of stronger warming imbedded west of the Galapagos to 120W. No cooling was indicated. Building warming was along the coast of Peru and Chile.
Hi-res Overview: (11/7) A sliver of weak cool water was present just off the outer coast of North Chile and loosing coverage with warm water building over South Chile and along the immediate coast of Peru. Otherwise moderate warm water was on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos building out to the dateline with a few pockets of stronger imbedded warming. There were no pockets of imbedded cool anomalies. We have turned the corner to a warm regime and are no longer in a mixed pattern where La Nina cool anomalies are present intermixed with warm anomalies. But it is not at all apparent that we are in or moving towards a legitimate El Nino pattern.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) Today's temps were stable at +0.207 after falling from a recent peak at +0.507 on 11/4, after rising from -0.628 on 10/22, down from the all time high for this event on 9/25 +1.316. Two previous peaks occurred of +0.510 degs on 9/17 and +0.459 on 5/13. Otherwise temps have been steady in the -0.50 deg range.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) Today temps were falling fast down to +0.779 after rising to +1.45 on 11/5, beating the previous peak temps of +0.795 on 10/9, and +0.649 on 9/27, and that beating the previous peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Overall temps are noodling around at +0.5 degs above normal, but nothing more other than one reading today. 3 days is not a trend. But this adds some hope that perhaps El Nino is trying to develop, but nothing serious.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/8) The forecast calls for a slow but steady increase from here rising to +1.00 degs in mid-Nov then toggling from +1.00 to +1.20 degs from Dec into May 2019, then slowly fading through July 2019 down to +0.85 degs. This suggests that perhaps El Nino is to build through the Fall of 2018 but weaker than previous model runs. But given the weak El Nino forecast, this somewhat dampens the odds of La Nina following in Fall of 2019. Most other models are also suggesting a possible turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Oct Plume depicts temps are to slowly rise from here, to +0.90 degs in October and +0.9-+1.0 degs in Nov through March 2019, then slowly fading to 0.78 in June. See chart here - link. It looks like La Nina is fading out and there's a 76% chance of a weak El Nino developing.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (11/8): The daily index was falling today at -1.15. The 30 day average was rising some at +4.28 suggesting an Inactive MJO was holding. The 90 day average was rising some at -2.98, the highest its been in over a month. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. This is expected for a month more before falling into steady negative territory by mid August.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (11/8) Today the index was falling at -0.38, down from -0.22 the week of 10/22, after having risen to +0.39 on 10/10, the highest so far this event. This suggests the Inactive Phase of the MJO was having a negative effect and that precip and evaporation are just slightly less than normal, and not above normal as one would expect if El Nino were in play. We are in an ENSO neutral pattern. The reading from 8/14 (+0.11) was the first time it's turned positive in a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.42, Sept -0.42. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Powerline Productions New Movie Preimer - Next Level - Friday (11/9) at 7 PM. Details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/NextLevel.html
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table