Sunday, November 8, 2020
- Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 9.9 secs from 193 degrees.
- Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 12.4 secs from 18 degrees. Water temp 82.0 degs.
- Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 6.3 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 4.8 ft @ 6.1 secs from 268 degrees. Wind at the buoy was west at 20-23 kts. Water temperature 63.1 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 7.8 ft @ 13.4 secs from 307 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.2 ft @ 14.8 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 207 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 4.5 ft @ 13.8 secs from 271 degrees.
- Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 15.8 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 10.3 ft @ 11.7 secs from 316 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 25-33 kts. Water temp 52.5 degs (013), 56.5 degs (SF Bar) and 55.0 degs (042).
See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)
Swell Classification Guidelines
Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.
Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.
On Sunday (11/8) in North and Central CA waves were double overhead plus at top breaks and completely destroyed by strong northwest wind. Protected breaks were 1-2 ft overhead and a mushed, choppy and unrideable mess from strong northwest wind. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to somewhat overhead and pretty warbled and broken up with chop outside the kelp. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest to head high and not really rideable and fully chopped due to strong northwest wind. Central Orange County had sets at head high or so and tortured by northwest wind and chop. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up and far cleaner with glassy conditions but still pretty warbled from underlying lump. North San Diego had sets at head high to a little overhead and textured but clean but with the same lump issues. Hawaii's North Shore was getting nice swell with waves 2-4 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a bit soft and warbled. The South Shore was getting minimal swell with waves waist high on the sets and clean but soft. East Shore was northerly windswell with waves head high and chopped from moderate east trades.
See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.
On Sunday (11/8) raw swell was hitting all of California from another gale that developed in the Northeastern Gulf Thurs-Fri (11/6) producing 26 ft seas aimed east and then southeast still producing much fetch as it was pushing down the US West Coast. Swell was hitting Hawaii from And a local gale was developing north of Hawaii Thurs-Fri (11/6) producing 24 ft seas aimed pretty well west of the Islands. beyond another system is to develop off the North Kuril Islands Mon-Tues (11/10) producing 43 ft seas aimed east then fading in the Northern Gulf on Thurs (11/12) with seas dropping from 28 ft. Beyond a weak system is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf on Fri (11/13) producing up to 26 ft aimed at the greater US West Coast. No swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California originating from the Southern Hemisphere. Beyond the southern hemi is forecast to provide no meaningful swell producing weather systems.
See all the details below...
SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours
On Sunday (11/8) the jet was consolidated tracking east off Japan with winds 160 kts then splitting on the dateline with the southern branch of that split falling hard south into a nearly pinched trough on the dateline being fed by 130 kt winds offering a tiny bit of support for gale development. East of there the jet was ridging north over the Gulf of Alaska before falling hard south down over the US West Coast pushing into Southern CA then pushing deep inland. No clear support for gale development was indicated. Over the next 72 hours the pinched trough is to quickly dissolve on Monday (11/9) while energy builds in the jet to 180 kts with it pushing solidly northeast extending consolidated from Japan to the Northern Gulf of Alaska and starting to fall into a developing trough in the Northeastern Gulf on Wed (11/11) offering some support for gale development there. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to not be fully organized pushing into the US West Coast on Fri (11/13) perhaps offering some support for gale development. Wind speeds in the jet are to slowly fade focused mainly over the Gulf of Alaska through Sun (11/15) pushing inland over North Oregon continuing to provide some limited support for gale development off the coast there. And later Sun (11/15) a new trough is to start building in the Northern Gulf being fed by developing jetstream level winds at 140 kts falling south there offering some support for gale development. But back to the west a fully split jet is forecast and not consolidating until those split streams reach the Northwestern Gulf likely eliminating support for gale development west of the Gulf.
On Sunday (11/5) raw windswell and swell mix was hitting California associated with a gale that previously pushed through the Northeastern Gulf (see details below). And windswell was fading in Hawaii from a low pressure system previously north of the Islands.
Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off the Kuril Islands on Mon PM (11/9) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area and seas building from 28 ft at 48N 163E aimed east. The gale is to track east Tues AM (11/10) producing 50 kt west winds and seas building to 43 ft at 48.5N 170E aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be over the North Dateline region producing 50 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 50N 179.5W aimed east.On Wed AM (11/11) the gale is to be moving north of the Eastern Aleutians with 40-45 kt west winds still lingering south of the Aleutians producing 34 ft seas at 52.5N 165W aimed east. 40 kt west fetch is to hold in the Northern Gulf in the evening producing 33 ft seas at 53N 155W aimed east. The gale is to be fading Thurs AM (11/12) in the Northern Gulf with 30 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 27 ft at 54N 146W aimed east. Something to monitor.
Northeast Gulf Gale
A gale started developing in the Central Gulf Wed AM (11/4) producing 35-45 kt north winds and seas 20 ft at 46N 147W aimed south and southeast. In the evening the gale moved to the far Northeastern Gulf producing 45-50 kt west winds and seas building from 27 ft at 49N 138W aimed southeast and barely in the NCal swell window (319 degs). On Thurs AM (11/5) the first fetch was pushing inland over Central Canada but a secondary fetch developed in the Central Gulf at 35 kts from the northwest producing 22 ft seas at 46N 146W aimed southeast. In the evening 30-40 kt northwest fetch is to be off Oregon with 23 ft seas at 42N 134W aimed southeast targeting North and Central CA well. On Fri AM (11/6) a tertiary low is to develop just off the CA-Oregon border producing 40 kt north winds with 28 ft seas at 42.5N 131W aimed south. In the evening the low is to push south forming a gradient with a 1042 mb high pressure system over the Central Gulf generating north winds at 35-45 kts just off San Francisco sweeping down the North CA coast with 20-25 kt north winds down into Southern CA and 27 ft seas just off Pt Arena and 20+ ft seas along the North CA coast pushing into Central CA. By Sat AM (11/7) the low is to be gone by a board fetch of 30+ kt north winds is to be along the West Coast from British Columbia down to Monterey Bay with 23 ft seas off Pt Conception at 34N 124W aimed southeast. A wind machine and raw sea state to expected to follow for CA. Something to monitor.
North CA: Windswell in control on Sun (11/8) fading from 10 ft @ 11-12 secs early (10 ft). Swell Direction: 300-315 degrees
Southern CA: Swell holding Sun (11/8) at 3.5 ft @ 12-13 secs (4.0 ft) at exposed breaks. Windswell fading on Mon (11/9) from 3.2 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft) at exposed breaks early. Swell Direction: 302-315 degrees
North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.
California Nearshore Forecast
On Sunday (11/8) north winds are forecast at 25-30 kts early for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA and 15 kts for Southern CA early building to 25 kts all location later. Light rain for North CA early clearing mid-day but light rain for Central CA building quickly in to South CA and holding all day. Moderate snow pushing south through the Sierra during the day dissipating in the evening. Monday (11/9) clearing takes hold with northwest winds forecast at 10-15 kts for North and Central CA early fading to 10 kts later but building to 20 kts for Cape Mendocino later. Light winds building into Southern CA through the day. Tues (11/10) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North and Central CA holding all day. Light rain for possible for Cape Mendocino early. Wed (11/11) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino early but otherwise 10 kts for North and Central CA all day. Thurs (11/12) North and Central CA to see northwest winds 10-15 kts all day. Fri (11/13) North CA to have light south winds early and Central CA to have northwest winds 10 kts building to 15 kts over Pt Conception early. A front and southwest winds at 20-25 kts to hit North CA over Cape Mendocino in the afternoon building south to the Golden gate in the evening at 15 kts. Light winds south of there. Rain for Cape Mendocino before sunrise trying to build to the San Francisco Bay Area mid-AM then arriving in the evening. Light snow after dark for Tahoe. Sat (11/14) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts early for North CA and lighter south of there turning calm over North CA later and northwest 20 kts for Central CA in the afternoon. Rain expected north of Morro Bay fading through the day. Light snow for the Northern Sierra mainly over higher elevations fading late. Sun (11/15) light winds are forecast for North CA down to Monterey with northwest winds 10 kts south of there early.
Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 14 inches, 17 inches, 14 inches, and 8 inches respectively. Freezing level 2,000-4,000 ft into Mon AM then rising to 8,000 ft and hovering between there and 7,000 ft into 11/15 then rising to 9,500 ft.
Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!
On Sunday (11/8) no swell of interest from the Southern Hemisphere was hitting Hawaii or California.
Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.
The southern hemi is going to sleep.
South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future
Beyond 72 hours another gale is to form in the far northeastern Gulf on Fri AM (11/13) producing 35 kt west winds with seas building from 22 ft at 45N 172W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to be just off North Oregon with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 26 ft at 45N 132W aimed east southeast. Something to monitor.
Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.
East Anomalies And Inactive MJO Building
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).
Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.
LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)
Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong from the east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak from the west over the East equatorial Pacific turning weak easterly over the Central Pacific and moderate plus strength easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (11/8) weak to modest east anomalies were over the KWGA with moderate west anomalies on the equator from a point south of Hawaii into Ecuador. The forecast calls for weak east anomalies building steadily in coverage and strength in the KWGA through the forecast period reaching near strong status at the end of the model run on 11/15. with west anomalies holding from south of California to Ecuador. Support for energy transfer into the jet is weak and is expected to be getting weaker.
Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East
- Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:
OLR Models: (11/7) A fading Active MJO signal was over the KWGA today with the Inactive Phase trying to build into the far West KWGA. The statistic model indicates the Inactive Phase is to build steadily to strong status by day 10 of the model run and holding on day 15. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Inactive Phase maybe not as strong at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (11/8) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak to non-existent over the Atlantic today and is to track east into the Indian Ocean and not changing strength through day 15. . The GEFS model suggests pretty much the same thing.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/7) This model depicts a very weak if not indiscernible MJO signal was present today with no change for the next 40 days. Perhaps a weak Active signal is to set up over the Central Pacific won 11/17 holding there unchanged.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/7) This model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO today had exited the KWGA and was over the East Pacific with west anomalies over that same area with east anomalies starting to build in the KWGA. The forecast indicates east anomalies are to be building in coverage at strong status and filling the KWGA starting 11/11 and building in coverage and intensity steadily through the end of the model run on 12/5 with the Inactive Phase of the MJO moving over the KWGA 11/14-12/1.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/8 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO building into the KWGA with east anomalies developing. A moderate and cohesive/broad Inactive Phase is to build over the KWGA today tracking east through 12/26 producing east anomalies filling the KWGA and points east of there to Ecuador. A stronger Active Phase is to follow on 12/18 with modest to moderate west anomalies building and holding as the Active Phase pushes out of the KWGA on 1/19. West anomalies are modeled making only limited progress over the East Pacific. A weak Inactive MJO is to return 1/16 and holding through the end of the model run on 2/5 with mostly weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 2 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California and is to continue through the end of the model run with it's western periphery easing east to 150E at the end of the model run. A third contour line is to appear on 12/16 with a fourth on 1/25 holding for the foreseeable future. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today and is to build in coverage with a second contour developing on 12/24 holding through the end of the model run and its eastern periphery easing east to 145E at the end of the model run. Its core and western periphery is to show no signs of moving east locked over the Indian Ocean. East anomalies that have been previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year have migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1 and are forecast stabilizing there for the foreseeable future. The trend is towards a building La Nina that is not likely to be dislodged anytime soon. This looks like a 2 year event now.
CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link
Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was gone. The 29 deg isotherm was retrograding to 160E today. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking hard to 173E today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at 146W today. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +0-1 deg C were steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 165W at depth today but no warmth east of there. There was a pocket of cooler anomalies at -3 degs near 125W with cool anomalies filling the entire area east of the dateline and shallower west to 150E. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/4 indicates the same with a large cool water bubble at depth stronger and larger erupting to the surface from 160E eastward to Ecuador with a core to -5C at 130W. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/4) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to 160E building to -20 cms at 130W and -15 cms solid between 110W-140W. Negative anomalies were -5 to -10 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and then reaching north up to Baja and into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from San Francisco south to Southern Chile and west out to the intersection of the dateline and the equator. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from the dateline and points west of there.
Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (11/7) The latest images indicate cold anomalies were on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline and solid in density over that entire and large area. Colder anomalies were imbedded in that flow between 110W to 150W and steady in coverage today. Cool anomalies were also holding along the coasts of Chile and Peru. This clearly indicates a well developed version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. Warm water was all but gone off Central America north of the equator. Overall the cool pool on the equator was unmistakable and starting to show signs of rebuilding after previously being stalled.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/7): Temps were weakly cooling on the equator between Ecuador to 160W.
Hi-res Overview: (11/7) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up to Peru and Ecuador then tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea with markedly cool anomalies between 110-150W. A clear La Nina signal is depicted.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) Today's temps were falling some to -1/147 today after having been on a slight rising trend starting 9/20 peaking at -0.910 degs on 11/5. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The overall trend has been steady but quite cold since June.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/8) Temps were steady today at -1.499 after bottoming out at -1.654 on 11/3, beating the previous low of -0.945 on 9/22. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps have been on a steady decline since 7/25. Overall the trend appears to be in a steep decline.
CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies
SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (11/5) Today the model indicates temps at -1.50 degs. The forecast depicts a steady downward trend to continue reaching -2.3 degs in mid-Jan then beginning to rise, rebuilding up to -0.25 degs in mid-July. This is becoming a 2 year event in that even after temps return to 0/normal it will take 3-5 months for the upper level circulation to respond in kind.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 21, 2020 Plume depicts temps are at -1.10 degs today, and are to hold into Dec, then moderating and starting to rise some to -0.89 by Jan 2021 and then neutral by June. Most models are suggesting a moderate to La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring. See chart here - link.
Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (11/8): The daily index was rising hard at 13.36. The 30 day average was falling at +2.96. The 90 day average was falling some at 7.67, suggesting the current fading Active MJO has had some limited impact on the deep state La Nina pattern. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.
See imagery in the ENSO Powertool
External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave
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Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table