Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.6 ft @ 6.2 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.2 secs from 160 degrees. Water temp 79.7 (Barbers Pt), 78.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 11.0 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 8.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 71 degrees. Water temp 78.3 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 9.9 secs from 34 degrees. Water temp 79.0 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 7.7 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 5.8 ft @ 10.6 secs from 295 degrees. Wind northwest at 18-23 kts. Water temperature 56.3 degs, 55.2 (Harvest 071), 57.4 (Topanga 103), 56.7 (Long Beach 215), 60.3 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 60.3 (Del Mar 153), 61.2 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.5 ft @ 12.1 secs from 306 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.8 ft @ 10.0 secs from 281 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 12.1 secs from 281 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.3 ft @ 10.2 secs from 268 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 267 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 12.7 secs from 278 degrees. Water temperature was 58.5 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 3.5 ft @ 10.1 secs from 297 degrees. Wind east 8-10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and S 3-4 kt (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE at 12 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.4 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), 54.7 (SF Bar 142), 53.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 53.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.2 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/17) in North and Central CA waves were waist high and reasonably lined up with decent form,clean with much underlying lump and soft and mushed. Seems like the bars have gotten broken up some. Protected breaks had sets at waist high and somewhat lined up and mushed and barely breaking and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to chest high on the sets and clean but with underlying warble and lined up with decent form and soft. Central Orange County had sets at waist to chest high and lined and clean with decent form but pretty soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean but real soft. North San Diego had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and lined up and clean but very soft and suffering from too much tide. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist to chest high and weakly lined up with poor form and warbled from cross shore chop though surface conditions with clean. The South Shore was knee to thigh high and clean and very soft if waves even broke with some sideshore tradewind lump. The East Shore was getting east windswell at 1 ft overhead and chopped from strong east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/17) no swell of interest was hitting California or Hawaii other than local northwest windswell. A gale is developing over the Northeast Gulf on Sun-Mon (11/18) producing 21-23 ft seas aimed southeast but mostly shadowed relative to North CA and points south of there. Another is projected behind that on Tues-Wed (11/20) just off Washington with 30-35 ft seas targeting mainly the Pacific Northwest and possibly Hawaii. A cutoff low is forecast northwest of Hawaii on Fri (11/22) producing 26 ft seas targeting the Islands well. But the MJO has turned Inactive which should reduce the potential for storm development.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (11/17) the jetstream was split in the west off Japan with most energy in the northern branch ridging hard north up into the far Northwest Bering Sea then falling southeast tracking over the Eastern Aleutians at 130 kts and southeast through the Northern Gulf pushing inland over Oregon starting to form a trough there offering some support for gale formation. Winds in the trough to build to 160 kts on Mon (11/18) with the trough falling south Tues-Wed (11/20) and deepening off Oregon offering great support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours the trough is turn into a backdoor trough pushing halfway to Hawaii on Thurs (11/21) perhaps offering more support for gale formation off the US West Coast holding into Fri (11/22). At that time the jet is to change now pushing singularly off Japan with winds 160 kts reaching to the dateline then splitting there with a trough developing over the Kuril Islands and looking to try and push east over the dateline into the Gulf on Sun (1/24) offering hope beyond.

Surface Analysis
On Sun (11/17) swell from the 4th gale in a series was fading out in Southern California (see 4th Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a new gale is forecast developing in the Northeastern Gulf (see Northeast Gulf Gale below).

A stronger gale is forecast developing in the Eastern Gulf just off Cape Mendocino on Tues AM (11/19) with 45 kt west winds and seas building fast from 21 ft at 40.5N 139.5W targeting California well (288 NCal). Fetch building fast in the evening while lifting northeast with 50-55 kt northwest and south winds and seas 29 ft at 45.75N 130.75W just off North Oregon aimed east and southeast and shadowed relative to North CA but with 23 ft seas at 41N 133W aimed east (297 degs NCal). On Wed AM (11/20) the core of the low is to ease west some with west fetch holding at 45 kts off Oregon producing 26 ft seas targeting mainly north of California and a small fetch of northeast winds building at 55 kts in the north quadrant of the storm producing 35 ft seas at 48.5N 135W targeting Hawaii but too small in coverage and too far away to result in meaningful swell. Fetch fading while holding stationary in the evening mostly at 35 kts with 25 ft seas off Washington falling southeast at 47.5N 138W targeting Hawaii and 22 ft seas at 42.5N 133W targeting North CA (305 degs). This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

4th Gulf Gale - Swell #2
On Sat AM (11/9) another gale developed off North Japan with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gale was approaching the dateline with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 29 ft at 40.25N 164.25E aimed southeast. On Sun AM (11/10) the gale was approaching the dateline with 40 kts northwest winds over a modest sized area and seas 27 ft at 39.5N 171E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well from a reasonably westerly angle. In the evening the gale built with 45-50 kt northwest winds on the dateline and seas 26 ft at 40.5N 179.75E still aimed southeast targeting Hawaii. Fetch held Mon AM (11/11) at 45 kts from the west just east of the dateline with seas 35 ft at 43.5N 176W aimed southeast targeting Hawaii and now the US West Coast well. The gale tracked east in the evening with northwest and west winds 35-40 kts and seas 30 ft at 42N 166W aimed east. On Tues AM (11/12) fetch was fading from 30-35 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 27 ft at 42.5N 159W aimed east and southeast. Fetch moved east in the evening off Oregon and North CA at 30-35 kts from the northwest over a solid area with seas 23 ft at 42.5N 150W aimed east. On Wed AM (11/13) the gale is to rebuild some with northwest winds 35 kts off Oregon and North CA with seas 25 ft at 42.5N 141W aimed southeast. Fetch is to fade off the Pacific Northwest in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 25 ft at 45N 134W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Dribbles Sun AM (11/17) fading from 2.0 ft @ 11 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 296-302 degrees

Northeast Gulf Gale
A gale was developing in the Northern Gulf on Sun AM (11/17) with 30-35 kts northwest winds streaming from the Eastern Aleutians up to the Pacific Northwest coast producing seas of 18-20 ft seas at 46N 140W aimed southeast and barely in the North CA swell window at 309 degrees. In the evening 30-35 kt northwest winds move east some with 23 ft seas at 46N 132W barely in the window at 319 degrees. Fetch is to be fading from there while moving east Mon AM (11/18) out of the NCal swell window and gone by evening. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting except from Pt Arena northward.

North CA: Maybe some very north angled windswell arriving later on Mon (11/18) to 8.4 ft @ 12-13 secs later (10 ft). Swell fading slightly through the day Tues (11/19) from 6.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0 ft).Swell Direction: 309-319 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (11/18) northwest winds take hold at 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon winds fade some at 15+ kts for North CA and still 20-25 kts for Central CA. Windswell rebuilding. Showers and snow for Cape Mendocino but moving no further south other than lingering snow showers for Tahoe early.
Tues AM (11/19) south winds to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest for the rest of North CA at 10 kts early and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon low pressure is to be pushing up to Oregon with a front impacting Cape Mendocino and south winds 30-40 ks for Cape Mendocino and south 10 kts down to the Golden Gate and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. Rain for Cape Mendocino pushing south to Bodega Bay later.
Wed AM (11/20) a front is to be stalled over Cape Mendocino with south winds 30-35 kts there and 20 kts down to the Golden Gate and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA early. The front fades some in the afternoon with south winds 25-30 kts for North CA and south 20 kts down to Santa Cruz and 5-15 kts for the rest of Central CA. Heavy rain for Cape Mendocino moving south to Bodega Bay with rain down to the Golden Gate later but no further south. Snow for Tahoe during the day.
Thurs AM (11/21) the front is to fade but still present with south winds 20-25 kts for North CA and south 10 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon. Rain for all of North CA perhaps lifting north slightly. Snow for Tahoe early.
Fri AM (11/22) low pressure continues circulating off California with south winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and south 10 kts for Central CA. More low pressure is to be building off Central CA in the afternoon with south winds 10-15 kts for North CA and south winds 10-15 kts for Central CA. Rain from Bodega Bay northward early pushing south to Morro Bay later. Snow for the higher elevations of Tahoe building solidly over the entire Sierra if not heavy in the evening.
Sat AM (11/23) low pressure impacts North CA before sunrise with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA early and northwest 10 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North and Central CA early and snow for the Sierra clearing mid-day.
Sun AM (11/24) south winds to be 10 kts for North CA early and northwest 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon another pulse of low pressure is to be off North CA with south winds 15 kts for North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. Rain lingering off the North Coast but not moving onshore.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 74, 82, 40, and 76 inches with most starting Fri (11/22).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 9,000 ft on Sun (12/17) falling to 2,200 ft late on Mon (12/18) then things warm up with freeze level 9,000 ft 11/21-11/22 before falling to 5,000 ft 11/23. Temp to rise to 9,000 ft 11/24 building to 12,000 ft on 11/26.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing weather systems of interest are occurring and no swell is in the water tracking towards Hawaii or the US West Coast.

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand on Mon AM (11/18) producing northwest winds 40 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 62.25S 173.75W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to track east-northeast with west winds 40 kts and seas 31 ft at 61S 154.5W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (11/19) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts over a solid area with seas 34 ft at 59.5S 140.75W aimed northeast. Fetch to continue northeast in the evening now over the Southeast Pacific with fetch 35-40 kts but over a smaller area with seas 34 ft at 53.25S 130.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Wed AM (11/20) in the Southeast Pacific from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 31 ft at 50.75S 122.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading but still 35 kts over a broad area moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 28 ft at 51.25S 114W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas continuing into Fri AM (11/22) nestled up off Southern Chile. Southern hemi swell is possible.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a small storm is forecast off North Japan Thurs-Fri (11/22) lifting northeast with 45-50 kt west winds and seas to 35 ft early Fri (11/22) at 41.25N 160.5E aimed east. Something to monitor.

And on FrI AM (11/22) a small gale is forecast develop in the far Western Gulf northwest of Hawaii with 30-35 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 38N 170W aimed southeast at Hawaii. In the evening northwest winds are to build to 35 kts with the gale falling southeast with seas to 24 ft at 35N 166W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/23) fetch fading from 30 kts 600 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas fading from 18 ft at 31N 162W aimed southeast. Residuals of the gale to continue falling southeast beyond. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours perhaps yet another gale to push east under New Zealand on Sun (11/24) with 32 ft seas aimed east. Otherwise no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

La Nina Tries to Get Traction
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/16) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/17) Today strong east anomalies were building over the West KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO setting up there. The forecast suggests east anomalies to hold at strong status filling the KWGA through 11/29, then collapsing with neutral anomalies 11/31 through the end of the model run on 12/3. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is arriving.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/16) Currently a modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the West KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO holding over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run tracking east while fading with the Active MJO moving into the West KWGA on day 10 and then filling it on day 15 at strong status. The dynamic model depicts the same thing but the Inactive MJO building to strong status on day 10 then fading fast while moving east with the Active Phase moving 30% into the KWGA on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/17) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the East Maritime Continent over the next 2 weeks and split between very weak and modest. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the East Maritime Continent at modest strength.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/17) This model depicts a very weak Active MJO (wet air) moving east over the KWGA and east of it on 12/7 with an Inactive signal (dry air) setting up behind controlling the KWGA 12/12 through the end of the model run on 12/27.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/16) Today east anomalies were in control of the KWGA at moderate to strong strength with MJO contours over the West KWGA. The forecast indicates the east anomalies building steadily with the Inactive Phase building into 11/30 with strong east anomalies filling the KWGA during that window. The Inactive contours are to be gone by 12/3 but with east anomalies fading from strong to moderate strength through the end of the model run on 12/14. But the Active Phase is to be building with west anomalies and contours pushing into the West KWGA 12/4 and building through the end of the model run filling half of it.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/17) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to fill the KWGA through 12/5 with strong east anomalies 11/21-11/28 and east anomalies filling the KWGA to 11/7. The Active Phase is to follow 11/27-1/17/25 with west anomalies filling the KWGA during that window. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 12/27 through the end of the model run on 2/14 with weak east anomalies developing 1/15 holding through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and is forecast to develop a second contour 12/5 holding solidly there through the end of the model run. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/17) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was reaching east to 167E. The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 169W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow and nearly gone in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degree in the far East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface in a pocket in the the East Pacific at 147W and smaller than weeks past reaching to the surface over a tiny area at 130W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/9 clarifies the situation more indicating cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 165W filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific thermocline. But, the density and volume of that cold water was significantly less than days and weeks past all isolated east of the dateline and mainly east of 140W. The cool pool appears isolated and has not path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 175W with -10 cms in 1 pocket stretched from 100W to 135W. It appears the cool pool is holding steady or weakening slightly. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/9) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is steady extending west to 140W (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) but with no markedly cold center and if anything the core is less pronounced than even a week ago. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The Subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool devolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/16) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to almost the dateline and not very strong and broken into pockets. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/16): Warming temp have taken over the equatorial Pacific. It seems the current Active Phase of the MJO is repressing development of cold upwelling on the equator, at least for the moment.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/17) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps are rising at -0.471, down on 11/4-5 as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), then rebuilt before that in the -1.245 range, falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/17) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at -0.532 but generally steady since 11/4, being steady but lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 11/6. Previously temps were -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (11/14) - Temps to fall hard to -1.25 in Dec into Jan before rebounding to neutral in April 2025. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.20 degs in Dec rising to -1.1 degs in Jan. None of this is believable with the CFS model showing steep drops in temps since July, and it never materializes. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The October 18, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.470 degs today and is the 5th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.533 in Nov (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to -0.091 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.597 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.533 in Jan. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/17) the Daily Index was positive at 8.52 today, and positive the last 8 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 3.82 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was falling some at 3.82 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and now -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.