Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 258 degrees. Water temp 78.1 (Barbers Pt), 77.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), 80.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.8 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.4 ft @ 13.3 secs from 57 degrees. Water temp 78.6 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 13.5 secs from 335 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 11.4 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 10.2 secs from 299 degrees. Wind west at 4-6 kts. Water temperature 55.6 degs, 57.2 (Harvest 071), 58.3 (Topanga 103), 57.2 (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.0 (Del Mar 153), 60.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 9.8 secs from 287 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.9 ft @ 9.7 secs from 274 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.8 secs from 210 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.5 ft @ 15.1 secs from 189 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 14.4 secs from 206 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.7 ft @ 9.4 secs from 269 degrees. Water temperature was 57.7 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.1 ft @ 8.5 secs from 266 degrees. Wind southeast 16-20 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and SE 16-17 kt (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and ENE 12 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 57.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.2 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 53.4 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.4 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 53.6 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (11/24) in North and Central CA waves were chest to head high on the peaks of the sets and weakly lined up and mushed but clean coming from the south. Protected breaks had sets at thigh to waist high and lined up and soft and real clean but weak. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high and weakly lined up and soft but real clean early. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to waist high on the sets and lined up with good form and real clean but soft. Central Orange County had sets at shoulder to head high and lined up with good form but a little warbled and mushed from a light northwest flow and foggy early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had some chest high sets and lined up and clean with no wind but some lump in the water. North San Diego had sets at thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and clean but real soft with some lump in the water. Oahu's North Shore had surf with sets 2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and real clean early. The South Shore was near flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and fairly clean early with light north wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (11/24) only leftover windswell was hitting California originating from a gale that developed Tues-Wed (11/20) just off Washington with up to 34 ft seas targeting mainly the Pacific Northwest. Swell was hitting Hawaii from a cutoff low that developed Wed-Thurs (11/21) hear the dateline producing 23 ft seas targeting the Islands well. And another gale pushed east off Japan Fri (11/22) with 35 ft seas then faded while approaching the dateline Sat (11/23) with seas dropping from 28 ft. Another swell is likely for Hawaii. And a broader gale is forecast developing on the dateline Tues-Wed (11/27) producing up to 38 ft seas targeting Hawaii well then fading in the Western Gulf Thurs (11/28) with seas fading from 37 ft targeting the US West Coast. Looking at the broader picture the MJO is Inactive and is to hold for another week or so which typically reduces the potential for storm development.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (11/24) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan to the dateline with winds up to 130-140 kts then fading and weak from the dateline east but consolidated enough to still be limping into Central CA, building some just over the coast aided by remnants of a backdoor trough moving inland. Over the next 72 hours starting Tues (11/26) a trough is forecast developing west of the dateline behind fed by 130-140 kt winds falling off the Kuril Islands and 160 kts winds over the dateline starting to supporting gale formation. That trough is to build while moving over the dateline Wed-Thurs (11/27) being fed by 130-140 kts winds continuing to offer good support for gale formation then fading. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (11/29) remnants of the dateline trough are to push east over the Western Gulf still being fed by 140 kts winds trying to support gale formation before finally fading on Sat (11/30). Back to the west the the jet is to be well consolidated still running east on the 35N latitude line with winds 170 kts reaching east to almost the dateline then weaker on into the Gulf of Alaska but not split. Perhaps a trough is to start building on the dateline on Sun (12/1) but it's too early to know with any certainty.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (11/24) no meaningful swell was hitting the US West Coat. But swell was hitting Hawaii from a small gale previously west of the dateline (see 1st Dateline Gale below).

And swell from another small gale is bound for Hawaii from a gale that developed west of the dateline (see West Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours local windswell is expected to continue for North and Central CA resulting from fading backdoor low pressure energy still circulating while moving onshore over California. See QuikCASTs for details.

And a gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Tues PM (11/26) with 40-45 kt northwest winds over a building area and seas 26 ft at 34.5N 175.25E aimed southeast. Fetch is to track slowly east Wed AM (11/27) at 45-50 kts from the northwest moving over the dateline with seas building in coverage and up to 31 ft in a small pocket at 41.25N 179.75E aimed southwest targeting Hawaii well. In the evening fetch is to be more consolidated just east of the dateline at 45-50 kts with seas 35 ft at 40.5N 176.5W aimed southeast both at Hawaii and the US West Coast. On Thurs AM (11/28) west fetch is to be fading while tracking east now over the far Western Gulf at 35-40 kts over a broad area with seas 37 ft at 41N 169.25W aimed east. Fetch fading while easing east in the evening at 30-35 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 43.25N 163.75W aimed east and southeast. Swell possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

1st Dateline Gale
On Wed AM (11/20) a small gale developed just west of the dateline with 35-40 kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 40N 169E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale eased east with 35+ kt northwest winds and seas 23 ft at 41N 172E targeting Hawaii. On Thurs AM (11/21) northwest winds faded to 35 kts but over a larger area with seas 21 ft at 41N 175E aimed southeast. Fetch faded in the evening 1000 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 18 ft at 38N 177W targeting Hawaii well. from the original fetch. On Fri AM (11/22) northwest winds were 30 kts with seas less than 17 ft at 38N 171W aimed southeast. Fetch fading out from there. Maybe some small swell to result for Hawaii.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (11/24) building to 4.0 ft @ 12-13 secs later (5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (11/25) from 3.8 ft @ 12 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315-320 degrees

West Pacific Gale
A gale started building Fri AM (11/22) half way from Japan to the dateline with 40 kts west winds and seas 35 ft at 37.5N 163E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading while lifting east-northeast at 35-40 kts with seas 30 ft at 39N 170E aimed east. On Sat AM (11/23) residual fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 40N 175.5E aimed east. Fetch gone after that.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues AM (11/26) building to 2.8 ft @ 14 secs mid-day (4.0 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (11/27) from 3.3 ft @ 12 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (11/28) fading from 3.1 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (11/25) south winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 5-10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon southwest winds are to be 10 kts for North CA and south winds 15 kts for Central CA as weak local low pressure moves onshore there. Light rain for North and Central CA early clearing in the evening. Light snow for Tahoe early building weakly over the Sierra late afternoon and holding overnight.
Tues AM (11/26) a weak pressure pattern sets up with northwest winds 5 kts for North and Central CA early. But low pressure is to be building 600 nmiles west of Pt Conception. In the afternoon north-northeast winds set up at 5-10 kts for North CA and west winds 1-5 kts for Central CA with low pressure just off Central CA. Rain clearing for North Ca but holding if not building some for Central CA through the day and evening. Snow for the Sierra all day and evening if not building later.
Wed AM (11/27) high pressure takes over the offshore Pacific Northwest with northeast winds 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northeast winds build at 15 kts solid for North Ca and 10 kts for Central CA. The low dissolves before reaching nearshore waters. rain for Big Sur southward to Pt Conception through the day fading in the evening. Some snow for the Central and Southern Sierra early then clearing.
Thurs AM (11/28) north-northeast winds hold at 10 kts for North Ca and northeast winds 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast. Maybe some showers for coastal Central CA south of Monterey Bay through the day and evening.
Fri AM (11/29) north winds to be 15-20 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast 10 kts for the rest of North Ca and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds are forecast at 15-20 kts for North CA and northwest 5-10 kts for Central CA. No precipitation forecast.
Sat AM (11/30) more of the same forecast with northwest winds 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA on down over Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade at 5-10 kts for North and Central CA.
Sun AM (12/1) a light northwest flow is forecast at 5-10 kts early for all of North and Central CA. Perhaps winds turning northeast for North CA in the afternoon and light north 5 kts for Central CA. Dry conditions set up with high pressure taking over the Pacific Northwest.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 19, 17, 23, and 67 inches with dumps on Mon-Tues (11/26).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 5,000-6,000 ft holding till early Wed (11/27), rising from 6,200 ft to 9,200 ft on Fri (11/29) then rising to 12,000 ft on Mon (12/2).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously over the Central South Pacific is tracking northeast (See South Central Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast pushing east under New Zealand Sun PM (11/24) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 33 ft at 57.75S 165.75E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (11/25) southwest winds to build in coverage at 45 kts with seas 36 ft at 55.25S 173.5E aimed northeast. In the evening fetch continues tracking east-northeast at 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 53.25S 175.5W. Fetch is to be fading Tues AM (11/26) from 35 kts with seas 30 ft at 53.5S 164W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 26 ft at 54S 153.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Central Pacific Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Mon AM (11/18) producing northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 62.25S 174W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale tracked east-northeast with west winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 62S 154.5W aimed east-northeast. On Tues AM (11/19) southwest winds built to 40-45 kts over a solid area lifting east-northeast with seas 35 ft at 59.5S 139.5W aimed northeast. Fetch continued northeast in the evening now over the Southeast Pacific with fetch 35-40 kts but over a smaller area with seas 34 ft at 54.25S 129.5W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (11/20) in the Southeast Pacific from 30-35 kts from the south with seas 29 ft at 51.25S 119.75W aimed northeast barely in the CA swell window. In the evening fetch is to be fading but still 30-35 kts over a broad area moving east of the Southern CA swell window with seas 27 ft at 50.25S 111W aimed northeast at Chile and Peru. Fetch and seas of 25 ft to continue at 49S 106W into Fri AM (11/22) nestled up off Southern Chile. Southern hemi swell is possible.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 2.3 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs early (4.0 ft) then holding. Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.3 ft @ 15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188-190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (11/27) building to 2.0 ft @ 19 secs late (3.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (11/28) to 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fading Fri (11/29) from 2.2 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (11/30) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.02.5 ft). Swell Direction: 185-188 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours no clearly defined swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

But perhaps some sort of a complex gale is to develop southeast of New Zealand Thurs-Fri (11/29) with seas building to 29 ft at 57.25S 162.75W on Fri AM (11/29). Something to monitor.

La Nina Getting Traction
Models Suggest a Weak Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (11/23) Water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the far East equatorial Pacific and modest east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (11/24) Today strong east anomalies were building over of not filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA through then end of the model run on 12/10. West anomalies are to try and punch a hole in the West Pacific 12/1-12/7 but fading and retracting. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (11/23) Currently a modest Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Inactive MJO weakening while tracking east and fading over the KWGA on day 5 of the model run with an Active MJO moving into the West KWGA on day 5 building on day 10 and filling it on day 15 at strong status. The dynamic model depicts effectively the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/24) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the East Indian Ocean. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the far West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and split between very weak and moderate. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the far West Pacific fading to weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (11/24) This model depicts the Inactive MJO (dry air) moving east of the KWGA today. An Active signal (wet air) is to start setting up 11/29 through 12/14. Then a stronger Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving east over the KWGA 12/24 holding there through the end of the model run on 1/3/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/23) Today strong east anomalies were in control of the KWGA with Inactive MJO contours filling the KWGA. The forecast indicates the east anomalies holding at strong status through 11/30 with Inactive MJO contours holding. Then contours are to fade beyond but east anomalies are to persist through the end of the model run 12/21 over the dateline at moderate plus strength. The Active Phase is to be building with west anomalies and contours pushing into the West KWGA 12/3 and building east to 145E on 12/5 but making it no further east through the end of the model run. La Nina is to arrive in full.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (11/24) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was in control of the KWGA with east anomalies filling it. The Inactive Phase is to fill the KWGA through 12/10 with strong east anomalies now through 12/2 and east anomalies filling the KWGA to 1/3/25. The Active Phase is to develop 11/28-2/4/25 with west anomalies filling the West KWGA but not making it over the dateline until 1/27. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 1/11/25 through the end of the model run on 2/21 with weak west anomalies holding in the KWGA through the end of the model run. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and is forecast to develop a second contour 12/5 holding through then end of the model run. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (11/24) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm backtracked to 165E (from 167E). The 29 degree isotherm was steady at 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was pushing east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but shallow and nearly gone in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific and +1 degree in the far East. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -2.0 degs were centered subsurface in 2 pockets in the the East Pacific at 140W and 105W and similar to weeks past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/19 clarifies the situation more indicating cold anomalies retracting massively now reaching to the surface east of 140W (previously 167W) filling the entire East Equatorial Pacific subsurface thermocline. But, the density and volume of that cold water was significantly less than weeks past all isolated east of the dateline and mainly east of 140W. The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/19) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with -10 cms in 1 small pocket at 125W. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/19) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast extending west to 140W at -0.5 to -1.0 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) but with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (11/23) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to almost the dateline and not very strong and broken into pockets. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (11/23): Cooling pockets are developing strongly over the equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W. It seems the Active Phase of the MJO suppressed east anomalies and development of cold upwelling on the equator but now the Inactive Phase is feeding strong east anomalies and upwelling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/24) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.008 after peaking at +0.265 )11/220, starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), then rebuilt before that in the -1.245 range, falling hard to -1.468 (9/27). Temps were falling the previous 10 days but steady before (since 8/7) at roughly -0.75 degs after reaching a low on 7/29 near -1.1 degs, falling the previous 3 weeks after briefly being up near +0.0 (7/7-7/11) after rising from -1.008 (on Tues 6/25). Previously the trend has been steady at roughly -0.750 since 5/14. Highlights from the recent past are -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (11/24) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.637 after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.0 week of 11/13. Previously temps were -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (11/21) - Temps to fall hard to -1.1 in Dec and -1.3 in Jan before rebounding to -0.25 in April 2025 and holding there into Aug. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.10 degs in Dec and -1.5 degs in Jan. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024, and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (11/24) the Daily Index was positive at 21.82 today, and positive the last 15 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising some at 4.33 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at 3.70 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and now -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.