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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Monday, December 3, 2018 6:02 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.5 - California & 4.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/3 thru Sun 12/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm #2 Solid on Dateline
Gale Forecast for Gulf Beyond

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Monday, December 3, 2018 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 1.6 ft @ 8.7 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 7.9 secs from 155 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.6 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 10.3 secs from 332 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.3 ft @ 10.8 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 10.2 secs from 237 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 8-10 kts. Water temperature 63.3 degs. At Ventura (Buoy 111) swell was 1.4 ft @ 11.5 secs from 273 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.5 ft @ 9.4 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 11.8 secs from 232 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.2 secs from 242 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.3 ft @ 9.9 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 9.6 secs from 319 degrees. Wind at the buoy (013) was east at 16-20 kts. Water temp 59.9 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Monday (12/3) in North and Central CA minimal background swell was present producing waves in the waist high range and clean with light offshores. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and clean with steady offshores but slow. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura surf was small at thigh to waist high and lined up and super clean. In North Orange Co surf was waist high and mostly breaking on the beach and clean. South Orange Country's best breaks were thigh to waist high and super clean but weak and slow. In North San Diego surf was again thigh to maybe waist high and soft and clean and weak. Hawaii's North Shore was getting weak windswell producing waves at head high to 1 ft overhead and a bit warbled through with clean surface conditions from east-northeasterly wind. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at thigh high and chopped from east-northeasterly wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Monday (12/3) no real swell was hitting California. And modest windswell was hitting Hawaii from a local weather system that was northwest of the Islands on Thurs (11/29) with 20 ft seas aimed southeast. Of far more interest is another strong storm that pushed off North Japan late Sat (12/1) moving east towards the dateline late Sun (12/2) with seas to 50 ft aimed east and is to redevelop while pushing over the dateline the fading before reaching in to the Western Gulf Mon-Tues (12/4) with seas to 53 ft. It appears another real swell is already in the water and more energy developing. And after that perhaps a more modest system is to develop in the Central Gulf Thurs-Mon (12/10) with seas in the 28-32 ft range aimed east. And more gale energy is to be developing in the West Pacific. The remnants of the Active Phase of the MJO is fading but a warming equatorial Pacific seems to be feeding the storm track.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Monday AM (12/3) the jet was somewhat fragmented tracking broadly east off the region from Japan to the Northern Kurils then consolidating on the dateline with winds building to 130 kts and forming a trough there supportive of gale development. From there the jet split with some energy tracking north and into Alaska with most tracking east into Central CA with a new small trough trying to form in the flow 1200 nmiles west of San Francisco. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to hold generally stationary and slowly loose energy while pinching off some into Wed (12/5) no longer offering support for gale development. At the same time the trough in the Eastern Gulf is to slowly be developing while falling southeast and pushing over the South CA coast late on Thurs (12/6) offering odds mainly for weather than swell production there. Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs (12/6) the jet is to be getting energized by winds building over Japan at 150-170 kts and consolidated building into the Gulf of Alaska on Fri (12/7) with winds there to 170 kts carving out a broad and solid trough over the Western Gulf pushing east to the Central Gulf on Sat (12/8) offering great support for gale development. By Mon (12/10) the jet is to be consolidated over the width of the North Pacific pushing off Japan at 180 kts then ridging northeast into the Western Gulf reaching up to the Eastern Aleutians then falling hard south into the Gulf trough now positioned just off the North Coast. Good support for gale development is expected off California and possible north of the trough off Japan. In all a solid jetstream pattern might be setting up.

Surface Analysis
On Monday (12/3) no real swell was hitting either California or Hawaii. But that is to be short lived.

Over the next 72 hours swell from a strong storm building west of the dateline is to be arriving in Hawaii and approaching California (See West Pacific Storm #2 below).

 

West Pacific Storm #2
On Sat PM (12/1) a new storm was building off North Japan producing a solid area of 60-65 kt northwest winds (hurricane force) aimed southeast with seas building from 30 ft at 41N 159.5E. On Sun AM (12/2) northwest winds were tracking east at 55-60 kts solid with seas building from 50 ft at 39.5N 169E. The storm tracked east in the evening with fetch still 55 kts solid from the northwest with seas 49 ft at 41N 177.5E aimed east. On Monday AM (12/3) the storm was lifting north over the dateline with winds 55 kts from the west over a solid area with seas rebuilding to 51 ft at 43.5N 175.5W. The gale is to hold position in the evening on the dateline with 50 kt west winds and seas still 50 ft at 48N 171.5W over a solid area aimed east. On Tues AM (12/4) the gale is to dissipating with fetch dropping from 40 kts over a solid area aimed east and seas fading from 37 ft at 48N 168W aimed east. The gale to fade in the evening with fetch down to 35 kts from the west and seas fading from 31 ft over a modest sized area centered at 48N 166W mainly from previous fetch. Something to monitor. Possible large long period swell to result.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Tues (12/4) at 8 AM with period 25 secs and size tiny but size building. More apparent energy to become visible as period hits 22 secs around 2 PM. Swell becoming solid as period hits 20 secs at 6 PM at 5.6 ft @ 20 secs (11.2 ft) and building into Wed (12/5) at sunrise when swell starts peaking at 8.8 ft @ 17-18 secs (15.5 ft) and holding most of the day. Swell fading some over night and down on Thurs AM (12/6) at 7.0 ft @ 15 seas (10.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell continues on Fri (12/7) pulsing again late afternoon to 7.0 ft @ 15 secs (10.5 ft). Swell fading on Sat (12/8) from 5.3 ft @ 14 secs (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 317 degrees moving to 325 degrees later Thurs (12/6).

 

  North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are forecast.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Monday AM (12/3) low pressure was building off the California coast producing light southeast winds from Morro Bay northward and building to 15 kts from Pt Reyes northward by late afternoon. No precip forecast yet. On Tues (12/4) the gale is to be falling southeast 600 nmiles off Pt Arena with south winds 15-20 kts from Big Sur northward pushing to 25-30 kts from Pt Conception to Cape Mendocino late afternoon. Steady light rain developing for the entire North and Central CA coast by late afternoon. Light snow for the Sierra building in to the evening. Wednesday (12/5) the low is to now be centered off Pt Conception drifting southeast with south winds 15 kts for Central CA and 10 kts for Southern CA building to 20 kts later and east for North CA through the day. Steady light rain for the entire state early but becoming focused from Big Sur to San Diego later afternoon. Light snow for the Sierra through the day becoming focused on the Southern Sierra late afternoon. Thurs (12/6) the low is to be moving over Southern CA waters and fading with east winds 10-15 kts early for North CA and southwest winds 10-15 kts for Southern CA fading to light and variable late up north and west 10 kts for Southern CA late afternoon. Rain for Southern CA all day and light rain for Central CA up to Monterey Bay though the day. Light snow for the extreme southern Sierra all day. Friday (12/7) light winds are forecast for the state turning south for Cape Mendocino late afternoon 10 kts. No precip forecast. Saturday a front is to be off the North CA coast with south winds 15 kts for Pt Arena northward but light south to Bodega Bay early and not turning south there until after dark, and reaching south down to Monterey Bay at that time. No rain forecast. Sunday (12/9) south winds are forecast at 25+ kts for Pt Arena early and 10-15 kts down to Big Sur and then south to Pt Conception late afternoon and 25 kts to Pt Reyes. Rain for all of North Ca developing from Sunset into the evening. Monday (12/10) a steady but fading southerly flow is forecast from Pt Conception early fading to calm south of Monterey Bay at sunset. Moderate rain from Monterey Bay northward early reaching Pt Conception later afternoon. Modest snow developing for the Sierra through the day. Total accumulation for the week for North Lake Tahoe 27 inches and 15 inches for Mammoth.

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis  
No swell of interest was in the water.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a new fetch of northwest winds is to be building over the North Dateline into the Western Gulf on Fri AM (12/7) at 35 kts aimed southeast with seas building. In the evening fetch is to fall southeast fast still at 30-35 kts with 21 ft seas at 45.5N 162W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (11/8) fetch is to reach the Southern Gulf aimed southeast and east at 30-35 kts with seas 23 ft at 37N 150W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be lifting north positioned 900 nmiles off Oregon with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 38N 143W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (12/9) the gale is to be building and stationary with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 30 ft at 42.5N 143W aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds to be 40 kts solid just off the Oregon and North CA coast with 34 ft seas at 41.5N 138.5W aimed east. On Mon AM (12/10) the gale is to be fading while lifting north but winds still 40 kts from the north with 28 ft seas at 42N 136W aimed southeast. The gale to fade from there. Something to monitor.

Back to the west (west of the dateline) on Mon (12/10) a broad area of 30+ kt west winds are to be developing offering yet more hope for swell development.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

SST's Rising Some Across Equator - SOI Barely Positive

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: La Nina started developing in early 2016, but westward displaced and generally weak. And by March 2017, it was gone with suspicious warming developing along South America and over the Galapagos to a point south of Hawaii. By May the atmosphere returned to a neutral configuration but then in July east anomalies started building in the KWGA and have not stopped, with cold water upwelling over the the Nino1.2 and 3.4 areas, indicative of La Nina. A double dip La Nina was in control and continued through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and beyond, but could not sustain itself, suggesting the demise of La Nina but not yet turning towards El Nino.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2018 = 6.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: Assuming the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that El Nino does not develop as strong as previously forecast, and assuming and an ocean-atmospheric coupling becomes weakly established in the January timeframe and ocean temperature anomalies in Nino3.4 build to the +0.6 deg range, there is good probability for slightly enhanced storm production in the North Pacific starting in the late Nov timeframe (specifically the Gulf of Alaska and Dateline regions) with slightly increased intensity in number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in slightly increased odds for larger than normal swell, with increased duration and higher than normal period. This should be significantly better than the past 2 winter seasons.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast:
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/2) 5 day average winds were moderately from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific to the dateline, then solid westerly at 175E and continuing over the remainder of the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East and Central equatorial Pacific, then turning to strong westerly from 170E and points west of there over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/3) moderate west anomalies were fading on the dateline and extending east on the equator to Ecuador. Basically west anomalies were over the entire equatorial Pacific and they are forecast to hold over this area over then next 4-5 days then fading out on 12/7. At the same time in the KWGA modest east anomalies are over the bulk of the KWGA today and are forecast easing east to the dateline by 12/7. After that the east anomalies in the area are to start fading some and almost neutral at the end of the model run on 12/10. It looks like the Inactive Phase of the MJO is building some.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/2) The Active Phase of the MJO was gone on the dateline moving east from there. The statistical model indicates the Inactive Phase is building over the West Pacific easing east and in the core of the KWGA at day 5 filling the KWGA then weakening some while pushing east and over the dateline at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase not moving quite as fast to the east and still over the core of the KWGA at day 15. The 2 models are somewhat in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/3) The ECMF model depicts the Active Phase of the MJO was moderate over the East Atlantic. It is to track east steadily at moderate strength and is to be over the Maritime Continent 2 weeks out fading some. The GEFS model depicts the same thing. The 2 models are generally in sync.
40 day Upper Level Model: (12/3) This model depicts a moderate Inactive signal over the West Pacific tracking east. It is to track quickly east over the East Pacific and into Central America on 12/21. A weak Active Phase of the MJO is to build in the West Pacific 12/20 tracking east into Central America on 1/7/19. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific through the end of the model run on 1/12.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/2) This model depicts moderate west anomalies were over the core and eastern KWGA and over the entire equatorial Pacific east of there and is to hold over that area through 12/6. Weak east anomalies are over the western KWGA and are to hold through 12/7, then fading out. After that modest west anomalies are to redevelop in the core of the KWGA starting 12/8 holding through the end of the model run on 12/30.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/3) This model depicts weak west anomalies were in the core of the KWGA today with a modest Active Phase of the MJO there. The Active Phase of the MJO is to be fading with weak to modest west anomalies over the entirety of the equatorial Pacific through 12/7. After that the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to develop in the KWGA 12/8 -12/20 with weak west anomalies in the KWGA centered just west of the dateline. After that a weak Active MJO pattern is to develop 12/22 through 2/4 with west anomalies holding from 140E and points east of there in the KWGA and east to 140W and at WWB status 1/8-2/21. The MJO is to be weak after that through the end of the model run on 3/2. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias is fully in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east over California and forecast holding through the end of the model run. A 4th contour line previously forecast to to develop in the 12/22-1/21/19 period has reappeared starting 2/11. Conversely the third contour line which was to fade from 12/25-1/15 has disappeared. It now appears El Nino development is perhaps becoming a bit more of a certainty per this model, or at least a solid tendency towards El Nino is fairly certain. The atmosphere and ocean are trying to become coupled towards an El Nino bias in the Pacific Ocean, but there's no objective evidence of it yet. If it hasn't happened yet (by Dec 15), it's doubtful there will be significant weather influence even if it does develop. And this model is not suggesting they will not become coupled with the MJO coming back to life and steady west anomalies fading. Still this pattern is to slowly become more favorable to support storm production in the Pacific regardless of whether El Nino develops, especially compared to the 2 previous years given that we're still moving towards Winter and La Nina is gone. Our assumption is a normal Winter pattern will result, but nothing more.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/3) Today in the far West Pacific water temps are 30 degs but losing ground significantly reaching east to 172E, previously to 180W. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded west to 160W a few weeks back, then moved east again and stable today at 153W. The 24 deg isotherm was 125 meters deep at 140W then getting progressively shallower east of there but now pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise warm anomalies are filling the entire subsurface Pacific with temps starting to rebuild in the West Pacific at +3 degs at 180W. Temps fade to +2 degs east of there only to rebuild to +3-4 degs (Kelvin Wave #2) starting at 130W and peaking at 100W down 90 meters then pushing into the coast of Ecuador. It appears Kelvin Wave #2 is fading out in the East Pacific though Kevin Wave #3 is building under the dateline. The peak of the Kelvin Wave cycle for this supposed El Nino has already occurred, but upwelling from it is still to be ongoing for a few more weeks. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/29 paints the same picture with the Kelvin Wave #2 starting in the Central Pacific near 135W pushing into Ecuador with temps peaking at +5.0 degs at 95W-110W. Modest warming at +1-2 degs were from the far West Pacific to 140W with a small pocket of warming to +3 degs at 165W (Kelvin Wave #3). Kelvin Wave #2 was breaching the surface from 90W to 155W solidly with secondary warm anomalies west from there to 165E. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) Positive anomalies were solid from the interior Maritime Continent tracking east, over an area north of New Guinea at +5 cms centered on the dateline. A bit of break occurred east of there , then rebuilding to +5 cms at 155W and holding solid over the equator then whole way into the East Pacific and Ecuador. There were no longer any pockets of +10 cms. Kelvin Wave (#2) was steady from 150W to Ecuador and branching north to Baja and south to Southern Peru along the coasts there, a good sign.

Surface Water Temps: The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/2) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate temps were warm in a Kelvin Wave pattern straddling 5 degrees north and south of the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline, with one imbedded pocket of stronger warming centered at 120W. There is a steady stream of moderate warming along the coast of Chile up into Peru and Ecuador and far weaker reaching north to Central America, but nothing indicative of a strong trend towards El Nino. Generic warm anomalies were north of the equator from Central America and south of Mexico building out to Hawaii and the dateline. A pocket of cool waters was elongated east to west off Peru to 130W. This pattern looks somewhat like El Nino, but also like La Nina with no solid warming branching north and south along the Central and South American coast, and most warming still in the West Pacific centered at 140W, suggesting this developing El Nino is only weakly in control and still fragile at best in the East Equatorial Pacific as it has been for weeks.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/2): No pockets of cooling were present over the equator. Instead broad pockets of generic warming were indicated along the equator with imbedded stronger pockets and weaker warming along the coast of Chile and Peru. Overall a steady pattern is indicated.
Hi-res Overview: (12/2) Weak warm water was building along the immediate coast of Chile and Peru. Otherwise moderate plus warm water was on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos building out to the dateline but with no strong imbedded warming. We have turned the corner to a warm regime. And one could kinda think we are moving towards a El Nino pattern just looking at the surface temps. But that would be a false conclusion based on what is going on sub-surface (fading Kelvin Wave scenario). And given the time of year, the warm signal on the surface should be much stronger if El Nino were truly developing. We are in ENSO neutral and likely only going to move to a minimal warm regime, likely not reaching full El Nino status this winter.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/3) Today's temps were falling at +0.522 after rising significantly to +1.534 on 11/27. That peak on 11/27 beat the previous peak on 9/25 at +1.316. A warming trend seems apparent here.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(12/3) Today temps were rising at +0.888 degs up from +0.825 on 11/28 and steady in the +0.5-+0.6 range since 11/12. The all time high for this event was +1.45 on 11/5, beating the previous peak temps of +0.795 on 10/9, and +0.649 on 9/27, and that beating the previous peak at +0.490 on 7/2. Overall temps are noodling around at +0.5 to +0.7 degs above normal adding suggesting some sort of minimally weak El Nino is trying to develop, but nothing serious.

Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/2) The model indicates temps at +0.8 degs in mid-Nov (which isn't even close to reality - they were about +0.5) then rising some to +1.1 on Dec 1 and building to +1.25 in April 2019, then falling to +1.00 degs into July 2019 and steady from there into Aug. If one is to believe the model then one would assume that El Nino is to build in the Winter of 18/19. But given all the data we've seen, we believe odds of even a weak El Nino developing are fading. Most models are suggesting a turn to weak El Nino conditions by late Fall. It's not certain we're there yet.
IRI Consensus Plume: The mid-Nov Plume depicts temps are to slowly rise from here, to +1.00 degs in November and +1.0-+1.1 degs through Feb 2019, then slowly fading to 0.71 in July. See chart here - link. There's a 90% chance of a weak El Nino developing through January.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (12/3): The daily index was rising some at 8.20. The 30 day average was rising at 1.52 suggesting a neutral MJO. The 90 day average was rising some at -1.64, unchanged the past 2 weeks and the highest its been in months. The 90 degree average turned negative for the first time in a year on 6/30 suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was building in the atmosphere. Unfortunately we have made no progress from there towards a negative El Nino pattern.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): (12/3) The index has risen slightly at +0.03, just barely positive but not as strong as it should be if El Nino were developing. Typically El Nino peaks in late December. If that is the case in this years event, then there's no hope for El Nino this winter. It was down to -0.22 the week of 10/22, after having risen to +0.39 on 10/10, the highest so far this event. This suggests that precip and evaporation are normal, and not above normal as one would expect if El Nino were in play. We are in an ENSO neutral pattern. The reading from 8/14 (+0.11) was the first time it's turned positive in a year.
Pacific Decadal Oscillation: The PDO is weakly positive, even though La Nina is in play.
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.42, Sept -0.42. This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/2):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNdPIox1jEQ&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Powerline Productions New Movie Preimer - Next Level - Friday (11/9) at 7 PM. Details here: http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/forecast/forecast/NextLevel.html

- - -

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Read all the latest news and happenings on our News Page here

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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