Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 1.6 ft @ 16.1 secs from 177 degrees. Water temp 78.3 (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.3 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 4.2 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 9.9 secs from 247degrees. Water temp 78.1 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 11.7 secs from 320 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 14.0 secs from 295 degrees. Wind NW at 14-16 kts. Water temperature 57.0 degs, 56.3 (Harvest 071), 57.4 (Topanga 103), 57.6 (Long Beach 215), 59.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.7 (Del Mar 153), 61.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.9 ft @ 15.2 secs from 274 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 4.4 ft @ 14.0 secs from 285 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.7 secs from 251 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.8 secs from 233 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.8 secs from 243 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 2.3 ft @ 15.6 secs from 271 degrees. Water temperature was 55.9 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 13.5 secs from 278 degrees. Wind east 3-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NNW 6 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and N 11 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 55.6 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 53.6 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 55.6 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.3 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.5 (Aptos Creek 275).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (12/3) in North and Central CA waves were 1-2 ft overhead and super lined up and real clean with light offshore wind and decent power but a little closed out. Protected breaks were up to head high and line dup and real clean with good form. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean but a little soft. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to near chest high on the sets and lined up with average form and with clean surface conditions and no local wind but with some warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at chest to near head high and lined up with good form and clean but soft with some slight warble intermixed. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at waist high and lined up but crumbled and soft from southwest wind. North San Diego had sets at waist to near chest high and lined up and real clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2-3 ft overhead and lined up and clean though a little uneven early. The South Shore was getting swell with set waves 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with decent form and fairly clean. The East Shore was getting no real swell with waves thigh high and clean with no wind early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (12/3) swell was fading in California from a broader gale that developed on the dateline Tues-Wed (11/27) producing up to 38 ft seas then fading in the Western Gulf Thurs (11/28) with seas fading from 32 ft targeting the US West Coast. Southern hemi swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale that developed south and southeast of New Zealand Sun-Mon (11/25) with seas to 35 ft aimed well northeast. And swell was hitting Hawaiian North Shore from the first in a series of 3 small gales that developed on the dateline and far Western Gulf. The first was Sat-Sun (12/1) with 31 ft seas aimed east. The second Mon-Tues (12/3) with 21-25 ft seas and third scheduled for Tues-Wed (12/4) with 19-20 ft seas aimed southeast and east. Some of this energy to reach the US West Coast, though well decayed. A stronger system to follow Thurs-Sat (12/7) in the Western and Northeastern Gulf with 26-32 ft seas aimed east. A weaker and diffuse one to follow in the Northwestern Gulf Sat-Sun (12/8) with 20-23 ft seas aimed east. And yet maybe another behind that on the dateline Tues (12/10) with 26-28 ft seas aimed east. An Inactive MJO is in play but doesn't seem to be completely shutting down the swell production machine.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (12/3) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 33N latitude line the whole way to a point 1,100 nmiles west of Central CA with winds 130 kts over that distance and up to 170 kts in a broad area centered over the dateline falling into a gentle trough with it's apex northwest of Hawaii supportive of gale formation. Impressive. The jet split east of there with most energy tracking hard northeast up into Central Canada supporting high pressure over the US West Coast and Indian Summer conditions. Over the next 72 hours the trough northwest of Hawaii is to hold if not deepening on Wed (12/4) then weakening beyond but still present offering some degree of support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (12/6) the jet is to start pulsing off Japan with winds 180 kts reaching to the dateline then building to 190 kts on Sat (12/7) and starting to fall into a developing trough again northwest of Hawaii supportive of gale formation but also getting pinched into Sun (12/8) and then the trough getting cutoff circulating just northeast of Hawaii later Mon (12/9) possibly creating weather there. But even on late Tues (12/10) the jet is to remain consolidated reaching east to a point just northwest of HAwaii with winds still 150-160 kts pushing over the dateline supportive of gale formation. It certainly appears an Active MJO over the Maritime Continent is feeding the jet pushing it downstream a good ways across the Pacific before its momentum fades.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (12/3) swell from a gale that developed on the dateline is fading in California (see Dateline Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a series of small gales and resulting swells are expected in the vicinity of the dateline supported by a gentle troughiness in the upper atmosphere there (see 1st, 2nd and 3rd Dateline Gales below).

Dateline Gale
A gale developed just west of the dateline Tues PM (11/26) with 45-50 kt northwest winds over a building area and seas 26 ft at 34.25N 171.5E aimed southeast. Fetch tracked slowly east Wed AM (11/27) at 45-50 kts from the west and northwest moving over the dateline with seas building in coverage and up to 35 ft in a small pocket at 39.75N 179E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well but mostly in the 29 ft range. In the evening fetch was more consolidated just east of the dateline at 45-50 kts aimed due east with seas 38 ft falling to 35 ft at 41N 177.75W aimed southeast both at Hawaii and the US West Coast. The Jason-3 satellite passed directly over the fetch at 0Z and reported a 15 reaching max average at 36.9 ft with one single reading to 42.1 ft. The model was slightly undercalling it. On Thurs AM (11/28) west fetch was fading while tracking east now over the far Western Gulf at 35+ kts over a broad area with seas 32 ft at 39.25N 171W aimed east. Fetch fading while easing east in the evening at 30-35 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 26 ft at 40.75N 164.5W aimed east and southeast. Fetch fading Fri Am (11/29) from 30+ kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas to 24 ft at 38.5N 167.75W aimed east. Swell possible for Hawaii and the US West Coast. Something to monitor.

North CA: Residuals on Tues AM (12/3) fading from 3.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (4.5-5.0 ft). Dribbles on Wed AM (12/4) fading from 2.8 ft @ 12 secs (3.0 ft). Swell DIrection: 290 degrees

Southern CA: Swell fading Tues AM (12/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell DIrection: 296 degrees

1st Dateline Gale
The first gale in a series developed on the dateline Sat AM (11/30) producing 35-40 kts northwest wind over a small area just west of the dateline and seas starting to build. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds were pushing east with seas building to 29 ft over a small area at 43N 178.75E aimed southeast and 31 ft overnight at 42.5N 178.25W. On Sun AM (12/1) northwest winds were fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 42N 175.25W aimed east. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 22 ft at 41.5N 170W aimed east.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (12/3) building to 5.3 ft @ 14 secs at sunset (7.0 ft). Swell slowly fading on Wed (12/4) from 4.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (5.5-6.0 ft). Swell fading Thurs (12/5) from 4.6 ft @ 12 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (12/5) building to 3.8 ft @ 12-13 secs mid-day (4.5-5.0 ft). Swell building Thurs (12/6) to 4.4 ft @ 13 secs early (5.5 ft). Swell Direction: 294-295 degrees

2nd Dateline Gale
A second gale formed Sun PM (12/1) just west of the dateline falling more southeast with 30+ kt northwest winds and seas building. On Mon AM (12/2) northwest winds built in coverage at 35 kts targeting Hawaii directly with seas building from 19-20 ft at 37.5N 178.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds were 30-35 kts some 1,200 nmiles northwest of the Islands with seas 21 ft at 37N 175.25W aimed well at the Islands. On Tues AM (12/3) fetch pulsed some at 35 kts aimed mostly east now with seas building to 24 ft at 39.5N 171.5W. In the evening fetch is to be fading fast from 30-35 kts in the Western Gulf with seas fading from 25 ft at 41N 163.5W aimed east. This system is to be gone after that. More swell is to be targeting Hawaii and then the US West Coast.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival first light on Fri (12/6) peaking at 6.7 ft @ 12-13 secs (8.0-8.5 ft) dropping through the day. Residuals early Sat (12/7) fading from 4.1 ft @ 12 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 325-330 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sat (12/7) building to 4.6 ft @ 14 secs (4.5 ft) mid-AM. Swell fading Sun AM (12/8) from 3.9 ft @ 13 secs (5.0 ft) and getting buried in local windswell Swell Direction: 288 degrees

3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale
Yet a third modest gale is to develop on the North Dateline Wed PM (12/4) falling hard southeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. On Thurs AM (12/5) northwest winds to be 30-35 kts just west of the dateline 1,100 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 21 ft at 40N 171.25W aimed southeast at the Islands. in the evening the gale is to turn east over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 22 ft at 43N 168.25W aimed east and southeast mainly targeting the mainland. Fri AM (12/6) west winds to be 35 kts in the Gulf with seas .23 ft at 42.5N 159W aimed east targeting Oregon and California. Fetch is to start lifting northeast in the evening with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 27-28 ft at 44N 148.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/7) fetch is to be lifting east-northeast at 35-40 kts now off Washington with seas 28-29 ft at 47.5N 142W aimed east. The gael to be gone after that impacting Vancouver Island. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival later on Sat (12/7) building to 5.0 ft @ 12-13 secs (6.0-6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 330 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (12/9) before sunrise fading from 7.8 ft @ 14 secs (10 ft) early. Swell direction: 305 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (12/4) north to northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA.
Thurs AM (12/5) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. .
Fri AM (12/6) high pressure builds some just off CA with northwest winds 10-15 kts for North CA early and 10-15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North and Central CA.
Sat AM (12/7) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North Ca and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. No precipitation forecast.
Sun AM (12/8) high pressure surges at 25-30 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 30+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. t
Mon AM (12/9) north to northeast winds are forecast at 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds to be 30 kts for Cape Mendocino and northwest 15+ kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA.
Tues AM (12/10) northeast winds to be 10 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon north winds to be 20 kts for Cape Mendocino and north-northeast 10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 0, 0, 0, and 0 inches.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,000 ft through 12/6 then building to 12,500 ft 12/7 then falling below 9,000 ft 12/8 dropping to 3,000-4,000 ft 12/9-12/10 then rebuilding to 10,000 ft 12/10-12/11 and up to 12,000 ft beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale southeast of New Zealand is hitting Hawaii and bound for the US West Coast (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

A gale developed just south of New Zealand late Sat (11/3) producing 26 ft seas at 54.25S 175E aimed northeast into Sun AM (12/1) at 25 ft at 51.5S 174.5W aimed northeast. Background swell is possible mainly for Tahiti but nothing meaningful for Hawaii or the US West Coast. .

New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed pushing east under New Zealand Sun PM (11/24) with 40-45 kt southwest winds and seas 32 ft at 57.75S 165.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (11/25) southwest winds built in coverage at 40 kts with seas 35 ft at 55.75S 173E aimed northeast over a modest sized area. In the evening fetch continued tracking east-northeast at 40 kts with seas 34 ft at 53.25S 175.5W. Fetch was fading Tues AM (11/26) from 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 51.5S 164.75W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 24 ft at 54S 153.75W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell peaking Tues (12/3) at 1.7 ft @ 16 secs early (2.5 ft) and holding through the day. Swell fading some on Wed (12/4) at 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Residuals on Thurs (12/5) fading from 1.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees.

Southern CA: Expect swell arriving on Wed (12/4) at 1.3 ft @ 18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5 ft). Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.6 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arriving on Wed (12/4) at 1.1 ft @ 18-19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building steadily through the day Thurs (12/5) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady Fri (12/6) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft) but possibly being overrun by more northerly swell. Swell fading Sat (12/7) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours starting Fri PM (12/6) another gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline with 35-40 kts west winds and seas building. Sat AM (12/7) fetch is to expand while tracking east-northeast with 35-40 kts southwest winds and seas 23 ft at 41N 165W aimed east and northeast. The gale builds more in the evening with 35-40 kts northwest winds in the Western Gulf and a small core at 45 kt north winds with seas 24 ft at 42N 171.5W aimed southeast and 20-22 ft seas east to 42N 159W aimed east. Sun AM (12/8) the gael is to lifting north up in the Northwest Gulf producing northwest winds 40-45 kts if not 50 kts with seas 27 ft at 46N 164W aimed southeast. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 48.25N 159.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Another fragmented but broad fetch is forecast filling the Dateline region on Mon PM (12/9) producing west and southwest winds 35+ kts with seas 22 ft at 43.5N 165W with a small core at 28 ft up at 51N 167.5W aimed east. On Tues Am (12/10) the leading edge fetch is to be 40 kts from the southwest in the Northwestern Gulf producing seas of 27 ft at 47.5N 159W aimed east and northeast and a core of 45 kt west winds over a tiny area near the dateline producing seas of 32 ft at 46.5N 177.75W aimed east. More of the same 12 hours out. Something to monitor.

Beyond 72 hours a storm is forecast developing in the Southeast Pacific Fri AM (12/6) with 28 ft seas at 54S 145.75W aimed and tracking east. The gale is to build into Sat AM (12/7) with seas 42 ft at 56.5S 123.25W aimed east then moving east of the Southern CA swell window. Low odds of sideband energy reaching up into Southern CA.

MJO Pattern Strengthens
Models Suggest a Weak La Nina Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/2) water sensors are all up in the east but wind sensors are partially down in the far east. 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/3) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific through then end of the model run on 12/19. West anomalies are at equally strong status but locked west of the West Pacific over the Maritime Continent (since 11/20) and are not forecast reaching into even the far West Pacific. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/2) Currently a weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the far east KWGA with the Active Phase (wet air) over the far West Pacific. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO moving deeper into the KWGA on day 5 building on day 10 and filling it on day 15 at strong status. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase moving slower into the West Pacific but still filling it at strong status at the end of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (11/30) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the Central Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the far West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and split between very weak and moderate. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the far West Pacific at modest status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/3) This model depicts an Active signal (wet air) pushing into the far West Pacific with the Inactive Phase (dry air) over the far East Pacific. The Active Phase (wet air) is to push east through the KWGA through 12/18. After that a stronger Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving east over the KWGA 12/23 through the end of the model run on 1/12/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/2) Today strong east anomalies and the Inactive Phase of the MJO were in control of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the east anomalies holding if not building to very strong status filling the KWGA through 12/12 with Inactive MJO contours fading on 12/9. East anomalies are to slowly fade and almost gone limited to weak strength on the dateline at the end of the model run 12/30. The Active Phase is to be building with west anomalies reaching into the KWGA on 12/10 and reaching over the dateline at the end of the model run with west anomalies moving into the West KWGA on 12/10 reaching to 150E 12/23 then holding there through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/3) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was in control while pushing east through the Central and East KWGA with strong east anomalies filling 90% of it. The Inactive Phase is to track east and be east of the KWGA on 12/18 with strong east anomalies now through 12/11 then fading. The Active Phase is already in the far West KWGA and is to push east through 1/17/25with west anomalies not reaching into the West KWGA until 12/16 then making it over the dateline 12/23 holding through 1/15/25. A weak Inactive Phase to follow 1/4/25 tracking east through the end of the model run on 3/2 with modest east anomalies during that window. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and is forecast to develop a second contour 12/7 holding through the end of the model run. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for but not in lined with any other model.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/3) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking west to 175E. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking at 175W from 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was no longer reaching east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific, making it east to only 125W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific. A pool of generally cold anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were in the East Pacific thermocline from 145W into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/29 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east at -0.5 to -1.0 deg and 0.5 degs colder in the far east. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was not impressive (a good thing). The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with no -10 cms indicated. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (11/29) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast while retracting east extending west to only 130W at 0 to -0.5 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/2) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to a bit west of the dateline (165E) and not very strong but weakly consistent across that area. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/2): Cooling pockets are in place over the East equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 130W and markedly weaker than the last few weeks.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/3) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' where this is just hard actual record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising some at -0.471 after peaking at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/3) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were falling at -0.894 and have been falling after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 11/27. Previously temps were -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.28 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (12/3) - Temps to fall hard to -1.0 in Dec and -1.25 in Jan before rebounding to -0.30 in April 2025 and holding there into June building to -0.5 in July. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs in Dec and -1.1 degs in Jan then redounding as described above. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024 and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/3) the Daily Index was positive at 19.77 today, and positive the last 24 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +8.70 and has been weakly positive the last month. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at 3.87 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and now -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.