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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, December 5, 2019 5:23 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.5 - California & 3.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/2 thru Sun 12/8

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Gulf Swell Pushing Towards CA
2 Dateline Systems Forecast to Follow

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, December 5, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 3.3 ft @ 7.1 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 6.7 secs from 168 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 5.0 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 3.2 ft @ 9.6 secs from 87 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 1.3 ft @ 12.4 secs from 241 degrees. Wind at the buoy was east at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.7 ft @ 12.3 secs from 306 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.3 ft @ 12.9 secs from 216 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 13.4 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.7 ft @ 15.6 secs from 211 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 6.5 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 4.6 ft @ 12.8 secs from 308 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was southeast at 12-16 kts. Water temp 55.0 degs (013), 55.9 degs (012) and 56.7 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (12/5) in North and Central CA northerly windswell was producing waves at chest to head high and a bit raw and unrefined but wit offshore winds and clean conditions. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high and very inconsistent but lined up and with decent form when they came. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to head high on the sets and clean but weak with some warble in the water. In Southern California/Ventura the same swell was producing waves at waist high or so and clean and lined up but weak and mushy. In North Orange Co waves were waist to chest high and clean and line dup but a little funky. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were occasionally up to chest high and clean and lined up but soft. North San Diego had waves at waist high and clean and gutless. Hawaii's North Shore was getting wrap around east windswell at waist high on the sets at top breaks and clean and weak. The South Shore was thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting easterly windswell at thigh high nearly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (12/5) in Hawaii no swell of interest was hitting. California was getting some sneaker short period swell from the Northern Gulf and of no particular interest. A gale developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (12/3) with 27 ft seas then fell southeast Wed (12/4) and is forecast to redevelop off the North CA coast on Thurs-Fri (12/6) with 39-40 ft seas aimed southeast. Another broad but ill defined fetch is to push off the Kuril Islands tracking to the far Western Gulf Thurs-Sun (12/8) with 24 ft seas over a solid area aimed east over that entire duration. A stronger gale to follow Mon-Thurs (12/12) on the same track but making it to the Central Gulf with 39-42 ft seas steady. So an increase is swell looks possible for both Hawaii and the US West Coast.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (12/5) the jetstream was well consolidated pushing east from Japan almost to the dateline with winds to 200 kts starting to form a weak trough over Kamchatka but not yet supporting gale development. East of the dateline the jet split with most energy running northeast over the Eastern Aleutians then falling south into a tight trough over the Eastern Gulf being fed by 110 kt winds offering some support for gale development. From there the jet was semi joined by remnants energy from the dateline split with the combined flow pushing inland over a broad area from British Columbia to Baja. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri (12/6) the jet is to remain consolidated pushing east from Japan to the Western Gulf with winds 190 kts with a small trough tracking east over the Aleutians not doing much to support gale development. And the trough off California is to weaken and start moving inland over Oregon on Sun (12/8). At that time the jetstream configuration over the greater North Pacific is to be pretty solid, with a consolidated flow arching slightly northeast from off Japan over the dateline then falling into a developing trough in the Western Gulf being fed by 180 kts winds but the trough a bit pinched but still offering support for gale development. A split flow is to still be holding on east of there from 145W to the US Mainland offering smidgeon of protection from what appears to be a solid stormy mess west of there. Beyond 72 hours the consolidated flow is to weaken some and push east barely reaching Central CA on Wed (12/11) while the trough at it's leading edge dissipates. Still 170 kt winds are to be holding from the dateline east to nearly the US West Coast with a new broad trough trying to organize in the Western Gulf and becoming supportive of gale development by Thurs (12/12). At the same time winds are to start building off Japan to 160 kts pushing east to nearly the dateline suggestive of potentially another cycle of gale development.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (12/5) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii and some weak north swell of no particular interest was fading at exposed breaks in California. Of more interest is a new gale tracking through the Gulf of Alaska (see Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Thurs AM (12/5) a new fetch of west winds was building pushing off the Kuril Islands at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42N 160E aimed east. Fetch is to hold in the evening while pushing east halfway to the dateline with 24 ft seas over a broad area at 41N 165E aimed east. More of the same is forecast on Fri AM (12/6) with 30 kt west winds over a large area aimed east with 24 ft seas at 43N 173E aimed east. Fetch is to hold position in the evening with 23 ft seas over a large area at 45N 177E aimed east. On Sat (12/7) fetch is to become more focused over the Northern Dateline region at 35 kts with a small area to 45 kts and seas 24 ft up at 48N 150E with 23 ft seas at 45N 180W aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds to move to the dateline at 50N 180W with 24 ft seas at 45N 179W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/8) fetch is to be fading in the evening with 30-35 kt northwest winds moving towards the Western Gulf with 22 ft seas fading at 42N 167W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading from there.

 

Gulf Gale
A gale started building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Tues AM (12/3) with 45 kt north winds over a small area and seas building from 26 ft at 48N 168.5W aimed southeast. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds were falling southeast with seas building in coverage at 27 ft at 47.5N 162W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/4) northwest winds were 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 44N 157W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was reorganizing off the NCal-OR border with 45-50 kts north winds and 29 ft seas over small area at 42N 145W aimed south. On Thurs AM (11/5) north winds were 45-50 kts with 39 ft seas at 40N 143W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to hold with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 37N 142W aimed southeast. The gale is to ease east on Fri AM (12/6) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 29 ft at 40N 140W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade in the evening with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 21 ft at 33N 132W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: For planning purposes expect swell arrival on Fri afternoon (12/6) with pure swell building to 5.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (9.0 ft). Swell peaking on Sat (12/7) at 8.5 ft @ 13 secs (10.5 ft). Swell fading on Sun (12/8) from 6.8 ft @ 10-11 secs(6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 moving to 265 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thurs (12/5) a storm was building off the CA coast with southeast winds starting to build along the North and Central CA coast early at 5-10 kts building to 20 kts over North CA later and 10+ kts for Central CA. Maybe a few pockets of light rain to develop overnight mainly along the entire Central coast. On Fri (12/6) south winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 15 kts of Central CA early building to 25-30 kts for all of North and Central CA in the later afternoon. Light rain is expected for North and Central CA early and building to moderate strength in the late afternoon for North CA building down to Monterey Bay late evening. Snow building for Tahoe over the evening. Sat (12/7) southwest winds to be 20-25 kts for North and Central CA early fading to 15 kts later and 10 kts in Southern Central CA. Rain all day for all of California all day. Solid snow for the North and Central Sierra all day and evening. On Sun (12/8) a light southwesterly flow is forecast for Central CA early but west to northwest 10-15 kts for North CA early turning northwesterly at 15 kts for both North and Central CA through the day. Light rain early along the coast. Snow fading through the day for the Sierra. On Mon (12/9) a light northerly flow is forecast all day for North and Central CA. No precipitation is forecast. On Tues (12/10) a light wind flow is forecast with a front fading just off the North Coast. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later pushing nearly to the SF Bay Area late evening. Wed (12/11) a weak wind flow is forecast. Light rain is forecast for North and and Central CA down to Big Sur fading out late afternoon. Light snow for Tahoe mainly mid-day. Thurs (12/12) light winds are forecast with a front stalling over the Oregon-CA border. Light rain for Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl and Kirkwood at 48, 54, 34 inches respectively and 0 inches down into Bear Mountain in Southern CA. The ski season is begriming.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sun PM (12/8) a new gale is to be building off the Kuril Islands with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 35 ft at 44N 156E aimed east. On Mon AM (12/9) the storm is to be building with west winds 50-55 kts and with seas 42 ft at 44N 164.5E aimed east. The gale is to be tracking east pushing to the dateline in the evening with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 42 ft at 42.5N 173E aimed east. On Tues AM (12/10) west winds are to be 40-45 kts from the west just east of the dateline with secondary fetch building east of that area at 45 kts with 39 ft seas at 43N 177.5W aimed east. The gale is to push east at 35-45 kts filling the entire Gulf of Alaska with 39 ft seas at 44.5N 170W aimed east. On Wed AM (12/11) the gale is to be fading from 30-35 kts filling the Gulf with 39 ft seas at 46.5N 163.5W aimed east. Remnants of the gale are to hold circulating in the Northwestern Gulf into Thurs (12/12). Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Fading Out - Kelvin Wave #5 Impacting Ecuador - Kelvin Wave #6 Tracking East From Dateline

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/4) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific then rebuilding on the dateline then turning light westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and then turning modest easterly on the dateline before turning modest westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/5) westerly anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA today. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding till 12/8 then dissipating quickly and turning moderate easterly and holding through the end of the model run on 12/12.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/4) A weak Inactive MJO signal was over the far west KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this weak Inactive Phase is to build slightly at day 5 while pushing east moving to the dateline and fading some at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase building slightly stronger. Effectively the 2 models are in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/5) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to hold in that position through day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is weak and moving east building to modest strength over the Maritime Continent at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (12/5) This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO over the Central Pacific today. This Inactive Pattern is to track east steadily pushing into the Central America on 12/22 and then gone. An exceedingly weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific 12/20 tracking east pushing into Central America on Jan 4. A modest Inactive Phase is to again start building over the KWGA on 12/30 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/14.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/4) This model depicts the Active Phase was barely holding over the dateline today with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to hold t through 12/6 then dissipating. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is to try and build in the West KWGA starting 12/7 with east anomalies pushing east but quickly dissipating on 12/13. After that the MJO is to turn weakly Active with weak west anomalies filling the KWGA on 12/15 holding through the end of the model run on 1/1.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/5) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with west anomalies still in control mainly on the dateline. The East anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase are to build in the KWGA 12/8 holding through 12/16 but then west anomalies are forecast redeveloping in the KWGA even though the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to still be in play. A weak version of the Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 12/27 holding through the end of the model run on 3/3 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold till 2/24, then collapse. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting slightly weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is now forecast to significantly weaken by 1/15.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/5) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was stable after backtracking to 175E while the 29 deg isotherm was steady at 171W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking some to 162W today. The 24 deg isotherm was steady at at 105W today. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at 2-3 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 154W indicative of new Kevin Wave #6 pushing east. A smaller area of warm water at +2 degs was centered at 101W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 11/24 indicates warm water from Westerly Wind Burst #5 had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 150E under the Dateline east and impacting Ecuador with temps +2-3 degs over the whole area with a small pocket of cool anomalies previously just off Ecuador gone now. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (11/29) A small area of weak positive anomalies were fading on the equator between 90-110W at +0-5 cms. A building pocket of +5 cms anomalies was tracking east centered at 155E-165W. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru and being replaced by very weak positive anomalies in pockets.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/4) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate warming anomalies were building solidly along Peru up into Ecuador with a stream of modest warm anomalies building west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru and fading steadily but still reaching west to 100W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/4): Today a building area of warming was along Peru steaming west off Ecuador on the equator out to 120W. Previous pockets of cooling interspersed along the equator from Ecuador to 140W were fading and being replaced with pockets of warming. The short term trend is now towards warming in the far East South Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (12/4) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator and off Peru reaching out to 125W. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there on the equator and south to 5S. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/5) Today's temps were falling slightly at +0.974 after previously peaking at +1.55 degrees on 12/2. This is part of rising trend that has been building since 10/10 when temps bottomed out at -1.921 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(12/5) Temps were rising some today at +0.261. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/5) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct building slightly to +0.5 degs in early Nov. The forecast has temps holding in the +0.5 degree range into May, building to +0.6 degs in Apr-May, then fading to +0.25 in late July. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the foreseeable future.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (12/5): The daily index was negative today at -8.15 but has been mostly negative the last 43 days. The 30 day average was negative but rising at -6.53. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -8.09, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Oct +0.33 Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/1):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=980Zt-Ff5WM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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