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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Sunday, December 8, 2019 1:30 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
4.1 - California & 4.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 12/9 thru Sun 12/15

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Storm #1 Modeled
Weaker But Still Active Storm Pattern Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Sunday, December 8, 2019 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 2.3 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 6.5 secs from 178 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 8.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 6.1 ft @ 12.9 secs from 17 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 5.9 ft @ 12.0 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 11.3 secs from 267 degrees. Wind at the buoy was southwest at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.6 ft @ 13.1 secs from 292 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.5 ft @ 11.9 secs from 261 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.9 ft @ 11.1 secs from 265 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 5.3 ft @ 13.4 secs from 272 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 8.6 ft @ 12.5 secs with swell 5.7 ft @ 11.8 secs from 292 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 4-6 kts. Water temp 55.4 degs (013), 56.3 degs (012) and 56.8 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (12/8) in North and Central CA Gulf windswell was producing waves at 1 ft overhead and pretty warbled and mixed up and mushy but rideable if you're desperate. Protected breaks were head high on the sets and soft and a bit warbled and gutless. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high or so on the sets and clean but weak and warbled and soft with poor form. In Southern California/Ventura the same swell was producing waves at waist to chest high and lined up but warbled and mushed. In North Orange Co sets waves were head high and lined up and clean but semi closed out. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were getting sets at chest high and clean and lined up but soft. North San Diego had waves at chest high and clean but lined up if not closed out. Hawaii's North Shore was getting northeast windswell with sets 1 ft overhead when they came and clean but relatively soft. But at least it was rideable. The South Shore was flat to thigh high and clean. The East Shore was getting north windswell with waves 2 ft overhead and clean with no trades blowing.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (12/8) in Hawaii and California were residual swell was still hitting from a gale that developed in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues (12/3) with 27 ft seas then fell southeast Wed (12/4) then redeveloped off the North CA coast on Thurs-Fri (12/6) with 39-40 ft seas aimed southeast. Another broad but ill defined fetch pushed off the Kuril Islands tracking to the dateline Thurs-Sat (12/8) with 24 ft seas over a solid area aimed east then redeveloped over the North Dateline region Sat-Sun (12/8) with up to 30 ft seas aimed east. Swell is in the water pushing southeast. A stronger gale is to develop off the Kuril Islands tracking east Mon-Tues (12/10) with up to 41 ft seas aimed east then redevelop in the Gulf Tues-Wed (12/11) with 47 ft seas aimed east. So an increase is swell looks possible for both Hawaii and the US West Coast. Things to slow down after that with only a small system forecast for the North Dateline region on Sat-Sun (12/15) with up to 39 ft seas over a small area aimed east.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (12/8) the jetstream was well consolidated pushing east off Japan ridging slightly off the coast there then building to 190 kts and falling into a trough over the Western Gulf centered at 160W offering support for gale development there. East of there the jet split with most with most energy tracking north up into Alaska with the remaining energy pushing east into Southern CA and Baja. Over the next 72 hours starting Mon (12/9) the jet is to remain consolidated pushing due east from Japan to the Central Gulf with winds 180 kts solid with the trough tracking east but starting to pinch off providing less support for gale development. But a broad trough is to be back building on the dateline into the Western Gulf Tues (12/10) being fed by the still consolidated jet with winds to 170 kts offering good support for gale development and that trough pushing east into the Central Gulf on Thurs (12.12) before fading there. Beyond 72 hours the jet is to weaken some with a slightly split flow pushing off Japan on Fri (12/13) wit winds to 140 kts near the dateline then weakening but reasonably consolidated over the Gulf before fully consolidating and riding some with winds 160 kts and pushing inland over North Oregon. No real troughs or support for gale development is forecast until Sun (12/15) when the jet starts consolidating pushing off Japan with winds to 140 kts holding together well to the Northwestern Gulf forming a weak trough there offering some support for gale development. East of there the jet is to still be consolidated pushing into North CA and falling south. A new trough is to start building over the Kuril Islands later Sun (12/15) perhaps offering something long term.


Surface Analysis
On Sunday (12/8) residual swell from a gale that tracked through the Gulf of Alaska was fading in California and Hawaii (see Gulf Gale below). Small swell from a fetch that pushed off the Kuril Islands was moving towards Hawaii (See Kuril Fetch below).

Over the next 72 hours a far more interesting storm is to be brewing (see Dateline Storm #1 below).

Dateline Storm #1
On Sun PM (12/8) a new gale is to be building off the Kuril Islands with northwest winds 45 kts and seas 35 ft at 44N 161E aimed east. On Mon AM (12/9) the storm is to be building with west winds 50 kts solid over a decent sized area and with seas building to 39 ft at 44N 169.5E aimed east. The storm is to be tracking east pushing to the dateline in the evening with 45-50 kt west winds and seas 40 ft at 42N 180W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/10) west winds are to be 40-45 kts from the west in the Western Gulf with seas 42 ft at 42.5N 174W aimed east with secondary fetch building east of that area at 45-50 kts producing 45 ft seas at 44.5N 159W aimed east. In the evening the gale is to push east and northeast with 40-45 kts west winds filling the Gulf of Alaska with 36 ft seas from the original fetch at 40N 166W aimed east-southeast and 48 ft seas from the secondary fetch at 45.5N 152W aimed east. On Wed AM (12/11) the gale is to be fading while lifting north with 35-40 kt west winds filling the Gulf with 38 ft seas up at 48N 145W aimed east and another pocket of seas at 30 ft at 39N 158W. Remnants of the gale are to hold circulating in the Northwestern Gulf into Thurs (12/12) with seas fading Wed PM from 31 ft at 48N 145W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

Gulf Gale
A gale started building in the Northern Gulf of Alaska on Tues AM (12/3) with 45 kt north winds over a small area and seas building from 26 ft at 48N 168.5W aimed southeast. In the evening 35-40 kt northwest winds were falling southeast with seas building in coverage at 27 ft at 47.5N 162W aimed southeast. On Wed AM (12/4) northwest winds were 30-35 kts with seas 27 ft at 44N 157W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale was reorganizing off the NCal-OR border with 45-50 kts north winds and 29 ft seas over small area at 42N 145W aimed south. On Thurs AM (11/5) north winds were 45-50 kts with 39 ft seas at 40N 143W aimed south. In the evening the gale is to hold with 45 kt northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 37N 142W aimed southeast. The gale is to ease east on Fri AM (12/6) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 29 ft at 40N 140W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade in the evening with northwest winds 30 kts and seas 21 ft at 33N 132W aimed southeast. The gale is to fade from there. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell fading on Sun (12/8) from 6.8 ft @ 10-11 secs(6.5 ft). Swell Direction: 280 moving to 265 degrees

 

Kuril Fetch
On Thurs AM (12/5) a new fetch of west winds was building pushing off the Kuril Islands at 30-35 kts with seas 24 ft at 42N 160E aimed east. Fetch held in the evening while pushing east halfway to the dateline with 25 ft seas over a broad area at 40N 167E aimed east. More of the same occurred on Fri AM (12/6) with 25-30 kt west winds over a large area aimed east with 23-24 ft seas at 43N 173E aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 30 kts but backbuilding over the Western Aleutians at 35+ kts with 21 ft seas over a large area at 45N 177E aimed east. On Sat AM (12/7) fetch became more focused over the Northern Dateline region at 40 kts and seas 27 ft up at 50N 170E aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt west winds moved to the dateline with 30 ft seas at 49N 178E aimed east. On Sun AM (12/8) fetch was fading from 30 kts from the northwest moving towards the Western Gulf with 27 ft seas fading at 47N 174W aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 30 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 45N 169W aimed east.

Hawaii: Expect swell arrival on Mon (12/9) with swell building to 5.6 ft @ 14-15 secs later (8.0 ft). Swell to continue steady on Tues (12/10) at 6.3 ft @ 13-14 secs (8.5 ft). Swell fading on Wed (12/11) while being overrun by possible new swell. Swell Direction: 313 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (12/11) 4.2 ft @ 14-15 secs early (6.0 ft) building some to 6.0 ft @ 13 secs later (7.5 ft). The secondary pulse to arrive on Thurs (12/12) at 6.7 ft @ 15 secs (10 ft) and being overrun by possible new swell. Swell Direction: 290-295 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Sun (12/8) a light southwesterly flow was occurring along Central CA early but forecast turning northwest 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA through the day. Light rain early along the coast and fading through the day. Light snow fading through the day for the Sierra. As of Sun AM snow base at Squaw was 74 inches, Sugar Bowl was 58 inches, Kirkwood 64 inches, Mammoth 62 inches mid-mountain and 80 inches at the summit. So we're off to a good start of the season. On Mon (12/9) a light northerly flow is forecast all day for North and Central CA but up to 15 kts for Pt Conception. No precipitation is forecast. On Tues (12/10) a light northwesterly flow is forecast with a front fading just off the North Coast. Light rain for Cape Mendocino later pushing over the SF Bay Area late evening while dissipating. Wed (12/11) a weak southerly flow is forecast for North CA as a front approaches with light winds for Central CA. No rain is forecast. Thurs (12/12) light winds are forecast all day with a front stalling over the Oregon-CA border. Light rain for Cape Mendocino. Friday (12/13) light winds are forecast but north winds at 15 kts for Pt Conception all day. Light rain possible for Pt Arena northward. Sat (12/14) north winds are forecast light early but building steadily for all of North and Central CA to 20 kts later. Modest rain for the Golden Gate northward. Light snow for the Tahoe area fading later. Sunday (12/15) north winds continue at 20 kts a bit off the coast all day. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 12, 14, 8 and 6 inches respectively. The ski season is officially underway.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another small gale is forecast developing pushing off the Northern Kuril Islands on Fri AM (12/13) with 45 kt west winds and seas 43 ft at 47.5N 162E aimed east. In the evening west winds to hold at 40 kts over a broad area aimed east with 39 ft seas at 48N 168.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (12/14) the fetch is to move to the North Dateline region at 40-45 kts from the west with 35 ft seas 48N 174E. Fetch is to fade in the evening from 35-40 kts over the far Western Gulf with 35 ft seas at 48N 179W aimed east. Fetch is to move east on Sun (12/15) at 30-35 kts with 31 ft seas at 47.5N 167.5W aimed east. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

MJO Turning Inactive - Kelvin Wave #6 Tracking East From Dateline

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/7) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading over the Central Pacific then rebuilding strong on the dateline then turning moderately westerly over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the far East equatorial Pacific turning light westerly over the Central Pacific and then turning modest easterly on the dateline before turning moderately westerly over the KWGA.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (12/8) westerly anomalies were moderate filling the KWGA today. The forecast calls for west anomalies holding till 12/9 then dissipating quickly and turning moderate easterly and holding through the end of the model run on 12/15.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (12/7) A weak Inactive MJO signal was over the far west KWGA today. The statistic model indicates this weak Inactive Phase is to fade some while while pushing east moving to the dateline at day 5 and then gone at day 15 while the Active Phase starting building over the far West Pacific at day 15. The dynamic model indicates the same thing but with the Inactive Phase building slightly stronger and holding into day 10 then moving to the dateline while the Active Phase starts moving over the West Pacific. The 2 models are mostly in sync.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (12/8) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was weak over the Central Indian Ocean today and is to move to the Maritime Continent and very weak at day 15. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is weak and moving east forecast pushing to the far West Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model): (12/8) This model depicts a moderate Inactive MJO over the East Pacific today and moving inland over Central America on 12/23. A modest Active Phase is over the West and Central Pacific and is to track east pushing into Central America on Jan 4. A weak Inactive Phase is to again start building over the KWGA on 12/28 pushing to the East Pacific at the end of the model run on 1/17.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/7) This model depicts the Active Phase was barely holding over the dateline today with moderate west anomalies filling the KWGA. West anomalies and the Active Phase of the MJO are to dissipate by 12/9. At that time the Inactive Phase of the MJO is to start building into the West KWGA starting 12/10 with east anomalies pushing east but dissipating near 12/22 with the Inactive Phase itself moving east of the Dateline at the end of the model run on 1/4 while neutral anomalies hold in the KWGA.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/8) This model depicts the Inactive Phase of the MJO was over the KWGA but with west anomalies still in control mainly on the dateline. East anomalies associated with the Inactive Phase are to build in the KWGA 12/9 holding for 2 days then fading to neutral if not weakly from the west. The Inactive Phase is to hold through 1/3 even though weak west anomalies are to be building. A weak version of the Active Phase is to develop tracking east through the KWGA 1/7 holding through the end of the model run on 3/6 with weak west anomalies in control. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold till 2/24, then collapse. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22 and is to hold through the end of the model run through getting slightly weaker at the end of the run. A strong area of east anomalies in the Indian Ocean is now forecast to significantly weaken by 1/18 and gone by 2/7.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/8) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was stable after backtracking to 174E while the 29 deg isotherm was backtracking from 171W to 173W. The 28 deg isotherm line was backtracking some to 162W to 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm pushed east to Ecuador after previously being steady at 105W. Anomaly wise, gentle warm anomalies are filling the entire Pacific with an interesting pocket at 2-3 degs building from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 152W indicative of new Kevin Wave #6 pushing east. A smaller area of warm water at +2 degs was centered at 95W pushing into Ecuador indicative of Kelvin Wave #5 pushing east there. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 140E under the Dateline east to 160W at +2-3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there then rebuilding to +2-3 degrees and impacting Ecuador. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) A small area of weak positive anomalies were fading on the equator in the vicinity of the Galapagos. A building pocket of +5 cms anomalies was tracking east centered at 155E-150W. Negative anomalies were gone along Peru and being replaced by very weak positive anomalies in pockets.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (12/7) The latest images ( 1.2 3.4 ) indicate warming anomalies were fading some along Peru up into Ecuador with a stream of modest warm anomalies tracking west on the equator over the Galapagos out to the dateline. Weak cool anomalies were south of the equator off Peru and fading steady but still reaching west to 105W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/7): Today a building area of warming was along Peru steaming west off Ecuador on the equator out to 135W. Previous pockets of cooling interspersed along the equator from Ecuador to 140W were all but gone. The short term trend is now towards warming in the far East South Pacific. This is a step in the right direction.
Hi-res Overview: (12/7) A weak fading area of cool anomalies is trying to hold on south of the equator off Peru reaching out to 125W. Otherwise gentle warming is pushing west on the equator, strongest from 100W and points west of there but also starting to build some some to 5S from off Peru westward. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator from the remnants of El Nino, but mostly gone south of the equator. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/8) Today's temps were still falling down to +0.238 after previously peaking at +1.55 degrees on 12/2. This is part of rising trend that has been building since 10/10 when temps bottomed out at -1.921 degs.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(12/8) Temps were falling some today at +0.139. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (12/8) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then then trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct building slightly to +0.5 degs in early Nov. The forecast has temps holding in the +0.5 degree range into March, building to +0.6 degs in Apr-May, then fading to +0.25 in late July. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the foreseeable future.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Oct 2019 Plume depicts temps are at +0.25 degs, and are to hold in the +0.25 deg range into May 2020, then fading slightly to +0.15 in June 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (12/8): The daily index was positive today at +4.83 but has been toggling between positive and negative equally the last 10 days. The 30 day average was negative but rising at -6.30. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -7.27, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Oct +0.33 Sept +1.13, August +0.64, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: June 2017 +0.21, July -0.50, Aug -0.62, Sept -0.25, Oct -0.61, Nov -0.45, Dec -0.13, Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan -0.23, Feb -0.55 This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO, even with La Nina, because the warm PDO appears to be dampening the effects of La Nina. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): June 2017 +0.79, July +0.10, Aug +0.09, Sept +0.32, Oct +0.05, Nov +0.15, Dec +0.50, Jan +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (12/8):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tPQIu3H4Z-8&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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