Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 1.7 ft @ 14.7 secs from 262 degrees. Water temp 78.1 (Barbers Pt), 78.4 (Pearl Harbor 233), 79.2 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 10.1 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 7.1 ft @ 15.1 secs from 327 degrees. Water temp 77.9 degs
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 7.3 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 4.7 ft @ 14.3 secs from 328 degrees. Water temp 77.5 degs
Buoy 46069 (S. Santa Rose Is): Seas were 6.8 ft @ 12.8 secs with swell 4.9 ft @ 12.6 secs from 300 degrees. Wind E at 10-12 kts. Water temperature 57.0 degs, 57.6 (Harvest 071), 57.0 (Topanga 103), 57.4 (Long Beach 215), 59.4 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 57.0 (Del Mar 153), 59.4 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.7 ft @ 12.8 secs from 293 degrees. At W. Santa Barbara (46054) swell was 4.2 ft @ 12.5 secs from 298 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.7 ft @ 14.8 secs from 228 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 2.2 ft @ 15.0 secs from 208 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 15.8 secs from 210 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.5 ft @ 13.3 secs from 275 degrees. Water temperature was 55.8 degrees (Imperial Beach).
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 6.0 ft @ 18.2 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 17.9 secs from 290 degrees. Wind east 14-18 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NE 13-16 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NNE 18 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 54.5 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 54.1 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 54.7 (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 54.5 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.0 (Soquel Cove).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (12/10) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean with offshore winds early. Protected breaks were waist to occasionally chest high and lined up and clean but a long wait between sets. At Santa Cruz surf was chest high on the sets and lined up and clean with decent form but soft and a little wonky early from tide. In Southern California/Ventura waves were thigh to maybe waist high on the sets and well lined up with good form and super clean. Central Orange County had sets at 1 ft overhead and lined up with decent form on occasion and real clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had surf at chest to maybe head high on the rare sets and super clean with good form but inconsistent. North San Diego had sets at head high and lined up and clean but a little closed out. Oahu's North Shore had sets at double overhead and lined up and clean with good form. The South Shore was waist high and somewhat lined up and clean with good form. The East Shore was getting chest high wrap-around northwest swell and chopped from brisk east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (12/10) swell was fading in California from the third in a series of gales that developed Thurs-Sat (12/7) in the Western and Northeastern Gulf with 26-28 ft seas aimed east. And swell is starting to show in CA from a stronger system that developed in the Northwestern Gulf Fri-Sun (12/8) with up to 40 ft seas aimed east over a small area (Gulf Gale). Swell is fading in Hawaii from this system. Secondary energy developed in the Western Gulf Sun-Mon (12/9) with up to 31 ft seas aimed east over a small area (Small West Gulf Gale). A slightly broader one was developing Mon-Tues (12/10) with 30-34 ft seas in the Northwestern Gulf. After that a bit of a break is suggested while a local gale develops off North CA Fri (12/13) with 29 ft seas over a tiny area aimed east. Then things are to get interesting with maybe a stronger system developing on the dateline Sat-Sun (12/15) with 52 ft seas aimed east then fading Mon (12/16) over the North Dateline region with seas dropping from 37 ft. And yet another behind that on the dateline on Tues (12/17) with 29-32 ft seas over a huge area aimed southeast. Something well worth keeping an eye on. A pretty active pattern remains suggested regardless of the MJO being quite Inactive. It might have something to do with a strong Active Phase over the Maritime Continent feeding the jet allowing it to push strongly downstream over the Central North Pacific.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (12/10) the jetstream was consolidated pushing hard east off Japan on the 35N latitude line reaching east to a point 1300 nmiles east of North California and 1200 nmiles north of Hawaii with winds to 160-170 kts starting to dig out a new trough off Japan offering support for gale formation. The jet was split over the Eastern Gulf and very diffuse. Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with the trough fading while the jet extends east poised to impact the North CA coast late Wed (12/11) while producing a small trough just off the CA coast that is to move inland on Thurs (12/12) offering weather there. Beyond 72 hours starting Fri (12/13) the jet is to continue pushing east on the 35N latitude line extending from Japan to North CA with winds 150-160 kts reaching from Japan to the dateline and 130 kts east of there with a trough developing over the Gulf of Alaska being fed by 160 kts winds later offering good support for gale development. By Sat (12/14) the trough is to push inland over North CA producing weather there. And another trough is to develop over the Gulf of Alaska being fed by 150 kt winds later supporting gale formation and pushing east while holding then pushing into North CA late Mon (12/16) again supporting weather production. Meanwhile back to the west starting late Sat (12/14) winds to build in the jet to 200 kts with a trough building off the Kuril Islands and both pushing east with a building trough on the dateline/Western Gulf Tues (12/17) being fed by winds up to 210 kts offering great support for gale formation. A bit of a ridge is to start building on Tues (12/17) off California providing some weather protection. It certainly appears an Active MJO over the Maritime Continent is feeding the jet pushing it firmly downstream reaching a good way across the Pacific before its momentum fades.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (12/10) swell from the 3rd in the series was fading in CA (see 3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a stronger gale that developed in the Western Gulf was fading in Hawaii and poised for CA (see Gulf Gale below). And a small gale developed in the Western Gulf with swell from it poised for Hawaii and then CA beyond (see Small West Gulf Gale below).

And yet another gale developed on the Dateline Mon AM (12/9) with 45 kt west winds and seas building while tracking east. In the evening the gale consolidated some in the far Western Gulf with 45 kts west winds and seas 27 ft at 44N 175W aimed east. On Tues AM (12/10) the gale was lifting northeast over the Northwestern Gulf with 45-50 kt west winds over a tiny area with seas 31 ft at 47.25N 164.75W aimed east. In the evening the gale lifts to the North Gulf with 40 kt west winds and seas 32 ft at 51N 160.5W aimed east. The gale is to move northeast and inland over Alaska Wed AM (12/11) with seas fading from 25 ft up at 55.75N 157.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Thurs AM (12/12) at 3.9 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell fading on Fri AM (12/13) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0 ft) but with secondary energy building late afternoon to 3.7 ft @ 14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (12/14) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees moving to 315 degrees

And a small gale is projected developing just off North CA on Thurs PM (12/12) with 40 kts northwest winds and seas building. On Fri AM (12/13) northwest winds to be 45+ kts with seas 21 ft at 40.25N 135W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to bloom 600 nmiles west of Oregon with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 28 ft at 45N 132W aimed southeast. The gale is to move up to the Washington coast Sat AM (12/14) with 40 kts northwest winds but all shadowed relative to North CA south of Pt Reyes. Seas 25 ft at 47N 132W targeting Oregon down to and Cape Mendocino. Something to monitor.

Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (12/6) a storm started developing just west of the dateline with 45-50 kts northwest and west winds and seas building from 24 ft at 38N 176W aimed southeast. Sat AM (12/7) fetch expanded while tracking east-northeast with 50-55 kt west and northwest winds and seas 37 ft at 41.5N 168.75W aimed east and southeast. The storm faded to gale status in the evening with 45 kt west winds in the Western Gulf with seas briefly to 40 ft then down to 37 ft at 45.25N 163W aimed east. Sun AM (12/8) the gale was lifting north up in the Northwest Gulf while fading producing west winds 35-40 kts with seas fading from 31 ft at 45.5N 164W aimed east. Fetch and seas to be gone in the evening.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (12/10) at sunset reaching 3.4 ft @ 16 secs (5.5 ft). Swell peaking Wed AM (12/11) at 4.5 ft @ 15 secs early (6.5-7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 297 degrees

Small West Gulf Gale
A small gale developed on the Dateline Sun AM (12/8) with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building. In the evening it was falling southeast in the Western Gulf with 50-55 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 42N 169.5W aimed east and southeast. On Mon AM (12/9) west winds were fading fast from 30 kts in the Central Gulf with seas fading from 26 ft at 39N 158.25W aimed southeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival late Tues afternoon (12/10) building to 5.6 ft @ 16 secs at sunset (8.5 ft). Swell fading Wed AM (12/11) from 4.6 ft @ 13 secs (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 335 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs AM (12/12) building to 5.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (6.5 ft) fading slowly through the day and being possibly overtaken by locally generated swell and windswell. Swell Direction: 290 degrees

3rd Dateline/Gulf Gale
Yet a third modest gale developed on the North Dateline Wed PM (12/4) falling hard southeast with 30-35 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building. On Thurs AM (12/5) northwest winds were 30-35 kts just west of the dateline 1,200 nmiles northwest of Hawaii with seas 23 ft at 43N 171.75W aimed southeast at the Islands. In the evening the gale turned east over the Northwestern Gulf with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 25 ft at 40.5 163.5W aimed east and southeast mainly targeting the mainland. Fri AM (12/6) west winds were 35 kts in the Gulf with seas 24 ft at 41N 155W aimed east targeting Oregon and California. Fetch was lifting northeast in the evening with west winds 35 kts and seas 25 ft at 48.25N 147.25W aimed east. On Sat AM (12/7) fetch was tracking east at 35-40 kts now off Washington with seas 28 ft at 47.5N 141.5W aimed east. The gale was fading off Vancouver Island in the evening with seas fading from 25 ft at 48N 134W aimed east then impacting Vancouver Island.

North CA: Swell fading on Tues (12/10) from 3.4 ft @ 11-12 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Wed AM (12/11) south winds are to be 15 kts for Cape Mendocino and southeast at 10 kts for the rest of North CA and southeast 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon south winds are to be 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for the rest of North CA and west 1-5 kts for Central CA. Rain developing for most of North CA in the evening.
Thurs AM (12/12) local low pressure is to be off the CA-OR border with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA early and south winds 10-15 kts for most of Central CA. In the afternoon the low moves inland with northwest winds 20 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. And more low pressure is to be building a bit off the coast. Rain for all of North CA early reaching south to Pt Conception mid-AM with snow for the Sierra fading later afternoon.
Fri AM (12/13) the next local low is to be off Oregon with south winds 10 kts for North CA early and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon the front hits North CA with south winds 30-35 kts for Cape Mendocino and 15-20 kts for the rest of North CA and south winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA late morning into the evening and not reaching south of Bodega Bay. Snow developing for Tahoe in the evening.
Sat AM (12/14) the low is to be circulating off Washington with a front moving onshore over CA with southwest winds 15 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA. Heavy rain for Cape Mendocino building south but lighter down to Pt Conception mid-AM perhaps limping into Santa Barbara CO late afternoon then clearing overnight. Snow for the Sierra clearing late evening.
Sun AM (12/15) yet another front sets up off the coast with south winds to be build to 10 kts for Cape Mendocino and northeast winds 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and all of Central CA early. In the afternoon low pressure is to be circulating off North CA with south winds 20+ kts for Cape Mendocino and south winds to be 10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest winds 5 kts for Central CA. Rain only for extreme north Cape Mendocino.
Mon AM (12/16) the low and associated front holds over North CA with south winds 20 kts for North CA and 35 kts for Cape Mendocino and west at 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the low starts to move inland with west winds 15-20 kts for North CA and southwest at 10+ kts for Central CA. Rain for all of North CA mid-AM reaching down to Morro Bay in the afternoon. Snow for Tahoe late afternoon reaching south to the Central Sierra overnight.
Tues AM (12/17) weak high pressure tries to take hold with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA early and 15 kts for Central CA. Northwest winds build some in the afternoon at 10-15 kts for all of North and Central CA. No precip forecast.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 42, 47, 32, and 16 inches in 3 dumps on Dec 12th, Dec 14 and Dec 16th.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level falling steadily from 9,000 ft early on 12/11 to below 6,000 ft (4,000 ft) on Dec 12 and holding below 6,000 ft through 12/14 rising to 8,700 ft 12/15then falling again to 5,000 ft later 12/16-12/17, then rising fast late on 12/17 to 10,500 ft and holding beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
A gale developed just south of New Zealand late Sat (12/1) producing 26 ft seas at 54.25S 175E aimed northeast into Sun AM (12/1) at 25 ft at 51.5S 174.5W aimed northeast. Background swell is hitting Southern CA now (see QuikCASTs for details).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing on Sat AM (12/14) with 45-50 kt west winds mid-way to the dateline with seas building. In the evening it is to reach storm status with 50-55 kts west winds over a solid area approaching the dateline with seas building from 35 ft at 42N 167W aimed east. On Sun AM (12/15) a solid fetch of 60 kts west winds are forecast on the dateline with seas 51 ft at 45.25N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 50 kts over the North Dateline region with a broad area with seas fading from 48 ft at 47.75N 178.5E aimed east. Fetch is to be stationary Mon AM (12/16) at 45 kts with seas fading from 38 ft at 49.25N 177W aimed east. Something to monitor.

And maybe another broad gale is to develop over the dateline Tues AM (12/17) with 40 kts west winds and seas 27 ft over huge area at 44N 175W aimed east.

MJO Pattern Strengthens
Models Suggest a Weak La Nina Event
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 5 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is moving to weakly La Nina mode and that will continue to build, but not expected to move beyond weak status.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (12/9) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the far East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (12/10) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase of the MJO in control. The forecast suggests east anomalies holding at strong status while filling the KWGA and the whole of the equatorial Pacific through the end of the model run on 12/26. West anomalies are at equally strong status but locked west of the West Pacific over the Maritime Continent (since 11/20) and are not forecast reaching into even the far West Pacific for any meaningful duration. The Inactive Phase of the MJO is here.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (12/9) Currently a weak Inactive MJO pattern (dry air) was over the far east KWGA with the Active Phase (wet air) over the far West Pacific. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO moving deeper into the KWGA on day 5 building on day 10 and filling most of it through day 15. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase (wet air) stationary at strong status over the far West KWGA and retrograding west on days 5 through 15 of the model run with the Inactive Phase (dry air) over the dateline.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (12/10) - The models depict the Active Phase was modest over the East Central Maritime Continent. The statistic model has it moving slowly east to the West Pacific over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the far West Pacific at weak status.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (12/10) This model depicts an Active signal (wet air) over the far West Pacific with the Inactive Phase (dry air) over the far East Pacific. The Active Phase (wet air) is to push east through the KWGA through 12/20. After that a stronger Inactive signal (dry air) is forecast moving east over the KWGA and continuing east through the end of the model run on 1/19/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/9) Today strong east anomalies were in control of the KWGA with Inactive Phase contours east of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the east anomalies holding at strong status over the dateline but slowly weakening through the end of the model run on 1/6/25 if not al most gone. Active Phase contours are to be reaching into the KWGA on 12/13 and reaching over the dateline at the end of the model run with west anomalies moving into the West KWGA on 12/15 reaching to 150E 12/23 then holding there through the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (12/10) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today the Inactive Phase of the MJO was fading while pushing east through the Central and East KWGA with moderate east anomalies filling 70% of it. The Inactive Phase is to track east and be east of the KWGA on 12/15 with moderate east anomalies now through 12/81 then fading out. The Active Phase is already in the far West KWGA and is to push east through 1/20/25 with west anomalies not reaching into the West KWGA until 12/19 then making it over the dateline 12/22 holding through 1/19/25. A modest Inactive Phase to follow 1/7/25 tracking east through 2/28 with west anomalies holding to 2/2 then weak east anomalies beyond on the dateline. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) with one contour and is to hold through the end of the model run. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4-8/3, collapsed to nothing, then returned over the dateline 11/16 with 1 contour line and is forecast to develop a second contour 12/7 holding through the end of the model run. This suggests a stronger La Nina pattern developing from now forward than previously forecast. This is not as hoped for but not in lined with any other model.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (12/10) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was gone, previously at 162E. The 29 degree isotherm was backtracking west to 167E. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 179W from 170W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east the whole way across the Equatorial Pacific but very shallow east of 120W. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +1 degs in the far West Pacific. A pool of generally cool anomalies at up to -1.0 degs were in the East Pacific thermocline from 150W into Ecuador. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 12/4 clarifies the situation indicating cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from the dateline east at -0.5 to -1.0 deg and 0.5 degs colder in the far east. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was not impressive (a good thing). The cool pool appears isolated and has no path to replenish it. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building. La Nina is here but there is no pathway for more cold water to move from the West Pacific eastward. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (12/4) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from Ecuador to 165W with no -10 cms indicated. It appears the cool pool is fading for the moment. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (12/4) cold water started filling the Equatorial Pacific early March then retracted in June, rebuilt in coverage mid-July, then retracted in Aug, rebuilt in early Sept then quickly faded early Oct. Today the cool pool is fading fast while retracting east extending west to only 130W at 0 to -0.5 degs (previously 148W last week of Oct and 152W 3rd week of Oct) with no cold center. A La Nina pattern is in play with 5 pulses so far but not strongly so. Warm water is limited in coverage west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer in the far West Pacific. The subsurface temperature forecast suggests that this is the last pulse of cold water forecast with warm water in the west blocking the development of any more cold water Kelvin Waves. Interesting. Is the subsurface cool pool dissolving?

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (12/8) The latest images depict a La Nina cool stream was filling the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to a bit west of the dateline (165E) and getting stronger from 150W to the dateline but otherwise weak in the far East Pacific. We are in La Nina, but not strongly.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (12/8): A warming pattern was in control of the East Equatorial Pacific from the Galapagos to 120W indicating no trend towards warming or cooling.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/10) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data os less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at -0.342. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (12/10) Today's temps were steady at -0.946 and have were falling after rising to -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 week of 12/4. Previously temps were -0.3 (11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.19 Nov, -0.26 Oct., -0.25 Sept, -0.11 August, +0.05 July, +0.18 June, +0.24 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.80 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2.0 in Nov. Temps did not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as forecast.
Forecast (12/10) - Temps to fall hard to -1.0 in Dec and -1.20 in Jan before rebounding to -0.30 in April 2025 and holding there into June building to -0.5 in July. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same steep drop with temps to -1.0 degs in Dec and -1.05 degs in Jan then rebounding as described above. None of this is believable since the CFS model has been showing steep drops in temps since July 2024 and those drops never materialize. We are only moving to a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The November 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.475 degs today (unchanged from last month) and is the 6th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to fall a little more down to -0.496 in Dec (3 month running mean) then then rising from there to +0.173 JJA (June July Aug). This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.565 in Nov and the Statistic down to -0.367 in Nov. Both these projections are about like before but only suggest a bare minimal week La Nina.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (12/10) the Daily Index was positive at 10.59 today, and positive the last 31 days, negative 12 days before, positive the previous 10 days, negative the previous 4 days, positive 18 days previous, negative the previous 5 days, positive 4 days previous, negative the 11 days before that, positive 22 days previous. Over the past month it was a mix of positive and negative.
The 30 day average was rising at +14.55 and has been building positive the last month and in La Nina terrotory. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was rising some at +5.32 and still effectively neutral as it has been the last month through trending towards weak La Nina. The first positive value was on 9/5 since the demise of El Nino. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
We are in ENSO neutral status.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.