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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, June 15, 2024 12:45 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.3 - California & 3.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Summer' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    
Issued for Week of Monday 6/17 thru Sun 6/23
Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

3rd New Zealand Swell Slams HI
Bound for CA

BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, June 15, 2024 :

  • Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 15.4 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 15.3 secs from 182 degrees. Water temp 79.2 (Barbers Pt), 79.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 78.4 (Lani 239).
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 4.2 ft @ 8.4 secs from 141 degrees. Water temp 77.2 degs
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.5 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 8.3 secs from 99 degrees. Water temp 78.8 degs
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 2.7 ft @ 7.6 secs from 276 degrees. Wind east at 6-8 kts. Water temperature 61.3 degs, 56.1 (Harvest 071), 65.7 (Topanga 103), 61.7 (Long Beach 215), 65.8 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.8 (Del Mar 153), 66.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 10.4 ft @ 9.3 secs from 313 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 4.2 ft @ 10.1 secs from 276 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.5 secs from 212 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.7 ft @ 13.7 secs from 211 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 3.7 ft @ 8.6 secs from 285 degrees. Water temperature was 63.3 degrees (Imperial Beach).
  • Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.2 ft @ 7.1 secs with northwest swell 6.7 ft @ 7.7 secs from 318 degrees. Wind northwest at 23-31 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NW 27-30 kts (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and W at 12 kts (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 49.7 degs (Pt Reyes 029), 50.9 (San Francisco 46026), 53.1 (SF Bar 142), 52.0 (Half Moon Bay 1801583) and 55.0 (Monterey Bay 46092).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (6/15) in North and Central CA waves were chest high and somewhat lined up and unorganized and warbled coming from the northwest with moderate onshore wind early but no whitecaps yet. Protected breaks were chest high and not very lined up and mushed and warbled and junky but reasonably clean given the wind speeds off the coast. At Santa Cruz surf was chest head high and modestly lined up and soft and short but clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were chest high and lined up with decent form but soft and textured if not lightly warbled suggesting nothing more than windswell. Central Orange County had waves at waist to chest high on the sets and gently lined up coming from the south with decent form and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had a few set waves at head high and lined up with good form and clean conditions early but soft. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and somewhat lined up with decent form and clean early but soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at 3 ft overhead and lined up and clean with good form and were 10 ft the night before. The East Shore was getting east windswell at chest high and chopped from moderate easterly trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (6/15) Hawaii was getting the peak of swell from a third and final system that developed under New Zealand on Fri (6/7) lifting well north while building Sat (6/8) with up to 33 ft seas over a solid area before fading Sun (6/9) over the Central South Pacific. That swell has hitting Hawaii larger than forecast. That swell is moving towards California. Another cutoff gale is forecast for the Central South Pacific Sat-Mon (6/17) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed northeast. So there's more potential on the charts. And there's maybe more to follow.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Saturday (6/15) no swell was in the water of being produced.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

  • Sun AM (6/16) no change is forecast with northwest winds 25-30 kts for all of North and Central CA and still over the Channel Island early. In the afternoon more of the same is forecast with northwest winds at 25-30 kts for North CA (excluding Cape Mendocino) and 25-30 kts for Central CA and the Channel Islands. Raw windblown windswell continues.
  • Mon AM (6/17) the gradient fades some while falling south with northwest winds 20-25 kts nearshore for North CA and northwest 25-30 kts for Central CA early and 30 kts over the Channel Islands. In the afternoon the gradient holds with northwest winds 25 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA and 25 kts for the northern Channel Islands. Junky raw windswell forecast.
  • Tues AM (6/18) the gradient fades some with northwest winds 20+ kts for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient fades more with northwest winds 15 kts for North and Central CA and 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay. Junky raw windswell fading.
  • Wed AM (6/19) northwest winds fade at 15 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon northwest winds hold at 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA.
  • Thurs AM (6/20) northwest winds hold at 15-20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 20 kts solid for all of North and Central CA . Junky raw windswell continues.
  • Friday AM (6/21) the gradient builds yet again with northwest winds 20-25 kts for all of North and Central CA early. No change in the afternoon with 25 kt winds confined to North CA waters. Windswell building.
  • Saturday AM (6/22) the gradient lifts north isolated to North CA with northwest winds 25-30 kts and 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding and cleaning up some for Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches.

Temperatures for the intersection of Tioga Pass Road and the John Muir Trail (Toulome Meadows - 8700 ft): Freeze Level 12,500 ft falling to 9,000 ft late on Sun (6/16) then rebuilding on Mon (6/17) to 11,000 ft rising to 12,500 ft Wed (6/19) and then back to 14,000 ft on Thurs (6/20) and holding. Temps at the intersection generally 50 degrees before rising to 65-70 degrees on Thurs (6/20) and beyond.

- - -

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

 

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday AM (6/15) the jet was mostly split over the entire South Pacific with the influential southern branch tracking east on the 63S latitude line but ridging north some over the Central South Pacific starting to form a trough as it interacts with the northern branch of the jet offering some support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the trough is to slowly track east into late Sun (6/16) offering some limited support for gael formation. Beyond 72 hours a new trough is forecast right behind it in the same area on Tues (6/18) impacting the northern branch of the jet forming a tight trough with 150 kts winds feeding it Wed-Thurs (6/20) again offering some limited support for gale formation.The jet is to split again after that offering nothing.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday AM (6/15) swell from the second in a series of gale that developed under New Zealand was all but gone in California (see 2nd New Zealand Gale below). Swell from a third gale and the broadest of the three is peaking in Hawaii and bigger than forecast having developed under New Zealand (see 3rd New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing over the Central South Pacific on Sat AM (6/15) with 40+ kt southwest winds over a solid area and seas building from 24 ft at 45S 150W aimed northeast. Fetch is to build in the evening over the exact same area with southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 31 ft at 47.5S 145W aimed northeast. Fetch holds stationary on Sun AM (6/16) but fading from 35 kts from the southwest with seas 33 ft at 43.25S 141.75W aimed northeast. Fetch fades in the evening from 30 kts from the southwest with seas 26 ft at 40.25S 135.25W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas gone after that. All this is to be well east of the Hawaii swell window targeting mainly California and points well south of there. Something to monitor.

 

2nd New Zealand Gale
On Sat PM (6/1) a gale developing south of the Tasman Sea producing 40 kt west winds and seas building from 30 ft at 54.25S 151.5E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/2) the gale tracked east while building with 45 kts southwest winds under New Zealand with seas 31 ft at 56S 164E aimed east-northeast. In the evening fetch was lifting north-northeast at 40 kts with seas 31 ft at 52.25S 175.25E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/3) south winds were 35 kts pushing north just off the coast of Central New Zealand with seas 29 ft at 45.25S 176.25W aimed northeast but partially obstructed by Chatham Island. South fetch was fading from 35 kts in the evening with seas 25 ft at 39.5S 171.25W aimed northeast. The gael faded out from there. Swell is pushing northeast.

Oahu: Dribbles on Thurs (6/13) fading from 1.9 ft @ 12 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: . Residuals on Sat (6/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215-216 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Sat (6/15) fading from 1.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 214-215 degrees

 

3rd New Zealand Gale
A third gale developed under New Zealand starting Thurs PM (6/6) producing a fetch of southwest winds at 35 kts aimed east-northeast with seas 22 ft over a small area at 55.25S 166.5E aimed east-northeast. On Fri AM (6/7) the fetch built in coverage at 35+ kts from the southwest lifting hard northeast with seas 24 ft at 54S 179.25W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds build in coverage at 40 kts over a large area aimed north with seas 27 ft at 48.25S 173.25W aimed north-northeast. On Sat AM (6/8) south winds were building while lifting hard northeast at 40+ kts with seas 30 ft over a solid area at 44.75S 164.75W aimed north-northeast. Fetch faded in coverage the evening from 40 kts aimed north with seas 33 ft at 42S 157.75W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Sun AM (6/9) from 35 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 40S 155W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading out from 30 kts with seas mostly from previous fetch fading from 25 ft aimed well northeast at 37S 152.5W aimed northeast. Swell is pushing north and northeast.

Oahu: Swell holding on Sat (6/15) at 2.8 ft @ 15 secs early (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Sun (6/16) from 2.2 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/17) fading from 1.6 ft @ 12-13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/16) at 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds Mon (6/17) to 2.1 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell holds Tues (6/18) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades on Wed (6/19) from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200-209 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (6/16) at 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Mon (6/17) to 1.6 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell holds Tues (6/18) at 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades on Wed (6/19) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200-207 degrees and shadowed by Tahiti

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Building - NINO3.4 Temps Falling to Neutral
NINO3.4 SST Anomalies Fading with Cool Water Starting to Erupt
9 Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But now cold water has traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific and is starting to erupt off the coast of Ecuador with the remaining warm pool created by El Nino starting to dissipate in the East Equatorial Pacific. Regardless, the atmosphere is still in El Nino mode and will continue from previous momentum while slowly fading through Fall of 2024.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Winter 2023 = 7.7 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: A 3 year La Nina started fading in Jan 2023 and was gone by April. 6 Active MJO's produced 6 Kelvin Waves over early to mid 2023 with Kelvin Wave #7 in August building over the West Pacific and the 4th, 5th and 6th backed up off Ecuador now (10/20/23). The CFS model is predicting steady west anomalies from here forward and the leading edge of the low pressure bias moving over California now filling the Pacific. We are now under an El Nino status. We are moving into a period of enhanced storm production (starting late Sept 2023) and beyond, getting intense come late Fall and early Winter. This should result in an above normal level of swells, with swells being longer than normal duration from here forward as El Nino gets a stronger footprint on the atmosphere. The net result is a well above normal number of swells with above normal size and duration (i.e 15 significant class swells perhaps). Last year there were 0 and year before 5 or less.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/14) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/15) Today mostly weak east anomalies were filling the KWGA. The forecast suggests generally weak to modest east anomalies filling the KWGA through 6/28 then building to strong east anomalies through the end of the model run on 7/1.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:  
OLR Models: (6/14) The models are corrupt. The statistic model forecast is corrupt. The dynamic model depicts a neutral MJO forecast through day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (6/15) The statistical model has no output. The dynamic model depicts the Active Phase over the East Pacific and very weak holding for the next 2 weeks.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (6/15) This model depicts a very weak Active Phase (wet air) was over the KWGA today. It is to move east and be east of the KWGA on 7/10 with an even weaker Inactive Phase (dry air) developing over the KWGA and holding through the end of the model run on 7/25.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/14)
Today a neutral MJO was indicated. The forecast indicates a neutral MJO is forecast with mostly weak east anomalies filling the KWGA and building to near strong status 7/1 holding through the end of the model run on 7/12.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (6/15) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
A very weak Active MJO was over the KWGA today with a mix of weak west and east anomalies filling it. No change till 6/18 when a weak Inactive MJO sets up but with a mix of east and west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. Starting 7/12 steady weak west anomalies are forecast through the end of the model run over the Western KWGA and east anomalies east of the dateline steadily building and reaching over the dateline on 7/4 and steadily building to the west over the coming months filling 80% of the KWGA at the end of the model run on 9/10. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure is over the Indian Ocean (starting 4/28) and is to be building there through the end of the model run with 2 contours indicated. The high pressure bias started to develop in the Pacific on the dateline 5/4 and is to be holding , then building quickly east on 7/14 filling the bulk of the KWGA to California if not the whole of the Pacific beyond. La Nina is here and building.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (6/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was steady at 180W today. The 29 degree isotherm was holding at 165W. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 143W. The 24 degree isotherm now extends east the whole way across the Pacific reaching to Ecuador (previously 119W). Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were now building at +1 deg filling the East Pacific from 50 meters and above the whole way to the dateline. A pool of cold anomalies at up to -3 degs was filling the entire subsurface East Pacific, but considerably smaller than previously. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/7 indicates cold anomalies reaching to the surface east of 140W. And subsurface cold water was filling the entire equatorial Pacific thermocline. La Nina is here. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/7) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 to -20 cms east of 170W with a broad pocket at -15 to -20 cms near 110W. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/7) cold water has been filling the Equatorial Pacific since early March with temps currently -0.5 to -2.0 degs from Ecuador to 145W. A clear La Nina pattern is in play. But warm anomalies are building over the dateline since early May at +0.5 degs. Interesting.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/14) The latest images depict a clear La Nina cool pool building on the equator from Ecuador west to the dateline. Residual warm anomalies from the remnants of El Nino were north and south of it across the Pacific. We are in a transitional phase moving from El Nino to La Nina.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/14): A mix of warming and cooling pockets were on the equator from Ecuador west over the Galapagos out to 120W.
Hi-res Overview: (6/14) Cooler than normal waters are filling the Equatorial Pacific from Peru up to Ecuador then west out to 140W. Remnant warm water from El Nino was over the rest of the equatorial Pacific from 20N to 20S. The classic El Nino tongue of warm water is still present but being weakened by a building La Nina cool stream tearing through its heart.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/15) (The official OISST temp record runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were holding at -0.836. Overall the trend has been steadily downward from -1.105 (5/28), -1.014 (5/16) rising to +0.184 degrees (5/2) after falling to -0.843 (4/21) and -0.565 on 4/1 and has been below 0 since 3/19.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(6/15) (OISST runs about +0.2 degrees higher). Today's temps were rising slightly at +0.019 after after falling just below the zero mark on 5/20. They had been steady at +0.095 after rising to +0.831 degs on 4/21 after falling to +0.5 degs on 4/15 and then falling from +1.120 (4/3) degrees. Previously temps have been in the +1.2 deg range since 3/11. Temps were at +1.2 degs or higher since 1/13. Temps had been in the +1.5 range 11/19-1/12.
Weekly OISST
are steadily falling at +0.1 (week of 6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data
is falling from +1.72 Oct, +2.02 Nov, +2.02 Dec and +1.82 Jan and +1.52 Feb, +1.13 March, +0.79 April, +0.32 May.
3 Month ONI (centered) 3 month period is +0.75 MAM, +1.15 FMA, +1.49 JFM, 1.79 for DJF and +1.95 ft for NDJ (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.92 OND . All others were less than that.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and 0.0 mid June.
Forecast (6/15) - Temps to fall to -0.20 mid-July and -1.5 degs in Nov/Dec 2024. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same thing but with temps falling to only -1.15 degs. According to this version of the model we are moving to a weak to moderate La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are +0.117 degs today and its the 13th month above the La Nina threshold. Temps to fall steadily from here forward down to -0.338 in July (3 month running mean) then fading from there down to -0.741 in Oct and holding there. This is an upgrade with temps previously forecast down to -0.944 (per the April model run). The Dynamic model suggest temps falling to -0.893 (-1.075 previous run) in Sept and the Statistic down to -0.631 in Oct (-0.927 previous run).
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (6/14) the Daily Index was rising to +8.08 today (negative the previous 12 days and down to -26.92 6/6). The daily SOI turned mostly positive on 2/20/24 after a 28 day negative peaking down at -46.54 on 2/9. It was positive and up to +31.61 on 1/6/24 and had been rising the previous 10 days. It had been effectively neutral 11/20/23 through 1/10/24. This was not consistent with El Nino. Previously it was negative for 29 days (7/14-8/11) with a peak down to -37.30 on 7/25 and negative previously to 7/12 with peaks down to -29.32 on 5/31, -64.63 on 5/24 and -31.31 on 5/12.
The 30 day average was falling at -3.31. Recent max lows were -19.26 on 2/20, -10.43 on 11/16 and -15.70 on 9/23.
The 90 day average was steady at -3.04. Recent max lows were -11.14 on 11/17, -11.85 on 10/15.
El Nino is collapsing

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.57 in March 2024 and -2.129 in April and now -2.97 in May). Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no signs of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like').

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 


Powerlines Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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