Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 15.3 secs from 185 degrees. Water temp 78.3 (Barbers Pt), 77.0 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.9 (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.2 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 3.3 ft @ 11.4 secs from 340 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 5.3 ft @ 11.8 secs with swell 2.8 ft @ 12.1 secs from 343 degrees. Water temp 77.7 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.1 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 0.9 ft @ 13.8 secs from 185 degrees. Wind SW 8 kts. Water temperature 57.7 degs, 56.1 (Harvest 071), 57.9 (Topanga 103), 58.1 (Long Beach 215), 57.9 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 59.7 (Del Mar 153), 59.7 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 4.3 ft @ 9.1 secs from 313 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.2 ft @ 10.2 secs from 235 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.0 secs from 215 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 13.9 secs from 209 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.3 ft @ 13.9 secs from 217 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.1 ft @ 14.8 secs from 208 degrees. Water temperature 61.9 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 8.5 ft @ 10.5 secs with swell 6.7 ft @ 10.2 secs from 327 degrees. Wind northeast 4-6 kts (Bodega Bay 46013) and NA (Half Moon Bay 1801593) and NA (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 51.8 degs (Pt Reyes 029), NA (San Francisco 46026), 55.2 (SF Bar 142), NA (Half Moon Bay 1801583), 55.8 (Monterey Bay 46092) and 54.9 (Soquel Cove S).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (4/20) in North and Central CA waves were waist to chest high and lined up and clean and somewhat closed out. Protected breaks were waist to maybe chest high on the sets and lined up and a bit closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high with some bigger peaks on the sets and clean with decent form. In Ventura County waves were flat with some onshore texture. Central Orange County had sets at waist high on the peaks and weakly lined up and clean. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at thigh to waist high and rarely chest high and lined up and clean with decent form. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and lined up but pretty weak with decent form and clean. Oahu's North Shore was thigh to waist high or so and weakly lined up and clean. The South Shore had sets at thigh to maybe waist high and weak and clean. The East Shore was getting minimal trade wind generated east windswell at thigh high and chopped from moderate east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (4/20) no meaningful southern or northern hemi swell was hitting California or Hawaii. Looking forward no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast for the North Pacific. That said a small gale is forecast off North Japan on Tues (4/22) producing up to 28 ft seas aimed east for 12-18 hours. Perhaps something will result for Hawaii. Down south a gale developed southeast of New Zealand Sun-Tues (4/15) producing up to 39 ft seas over a small area aimed east-northeast. Small swell is radiating northeast for HI and CA for the workweek. Secondary energy from it developed Tues (4/15) over the upper reaches of the Central South Pacific producing with 28-30 ft seas aimed northeast. A broader system developed in the deep Central Pacific Wed-Fri (4/18) with 35 ft seas aimed mostly due east. Another developed south of New Zealand Fri-Sun (3/20) traversing the South Pacific while lifting east-northeast Fri-Sun (3/20) with 33 ft seas initially fading to 30-31 ft later while moving over the Southeast Pacific offering hope for more southern hemi swell beyond. Another gale is forecast tracking northeast under New Zealand on Wed-Thurs (4/22) with 32-34 ft seas aimed northeast. Another to follow under New Zealand Fri-Sat (4/26) with 36-38 ft seas but aimed southeast. The transition to Summer is underway.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Sunday (4/20) no swell of interest was hitting Hawaii or California coming from the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

That said a gale is forecast developing off North Japan on Tues AM (4/22) with northwest winds at 40 kts and seas 27 ft at 41.5N 159.5E aimed southeast. In the evening northwest winds fade to 35 kts with seas 26 ft at 42N 164E aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate after that. Low odds of swell resulting for Hawaii.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Mon AM (4/21) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts for most of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon no change is forecast but with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Tues AM (4/22) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. No change in the afternoon but with northwest winds 15 kts for Central CA. Northwest windswell holding. No precip forecast.
Wed AM (4/23) northwest winds to be 25-30 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for all of Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 20+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA windswell fading some.
Thurs AM (4/24) northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest wins to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. Windswell effectively gone.
Fri AM (4/25) low pressure is to be off Oregon with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon west winds to be 10+ kts for North CA and northwest winds 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. No windswell forecast. Rain forecast for North CA down to Monterey Bay in the evening. Snow for Tahoe in the evening.
Sat AM (4/26) the low is to hold weakly off Oregon with northwest winds 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts south of Monterey Bay. In the afternoon no change is forecast. No windswell forecast. Scattered showers early for North and Central CA but rain continues for Cape Mendocino through the day. Snow for the Sierra early.
Sun AM (4/27) low pressure dissipates. Northwest winds to be 10 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon high pressure returns with northwest winds 15-20 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA and up to 25 kts south of Monterey Bay. Rain fading early for Cape Mendocino.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days respectively for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth are projected at a 6, 6, 5, and 0.5 inches all on Fri-Sat (5/26) but that remains a likely fantasy of the model.

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 10,000 ft from today forward rising to 12,000 ft late on 4/27 and beyond.

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/17) the jetstream was rising southeast under New Zealand reaching down to 73S suppressing gale production. East of there the jet was lifting northeast over the Southeast Pacific forming a trough being fed by 140-150 kts winds supporting gale formation. Over the next 72 hours that trough to push east and east of the Southern CA swell window later on Mon (4/21). Some form a a slowly weakening ridge is to be tracking east over the South Pacific into Wed (4/23) with no troughs forecast offering no support for gale formation. Beyond 72 hours a ridge is to push hard south under New Zealand on Thurs (4/240 suppressing swell production but with a trough preceding it over the Central South Pacific being fed by 130 kts winds supporting gale formation but getting pinched late Fri (4/25) over the Southeast Pacific starting to hinder gale formation. Beyond the jet is to be weak with winds 90 kts or less over the entirety of the South Pacific running east on the 55S latitude line with no troughs forecast offering no support for gale development through Sun (4/27).

Surface Analysis
Swell from a gale previously southeast of New Zealand was propagating northeast towards Hi and CA (see New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours swell from a secondary gale was also tracking northeast targeting California and South America (see Secondary Gale below). And yet another was pushing north from another gale previously south of New Zealand (see Another New Zealand Gale below).

On Fri AM (4/18) a small gale developed south of New Zealand with west winds 45 kts and seas building from 30 ft at 64.75S 169E aimed east. In the evening west winds were 40 kts and seas 34 ft at 64.5S 174.5W aimed east. On Sat AM (4/19) southwest winds were 35-40 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas 29 ft over a broad area at 62S 155W aimed east-northeast. Fetch rebuilt in the evening with southwest winds 40 kts aimed well northeast and seas 31 ft at 64.25S 152.25W aimed northeast. On Sun AM (4/20) southwest winds were fading from 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 30 ft at 60S 139W aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to be 35-40 kts over the Southeast Pacific with seas 29-30 ft over a broad area at 54S 128W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (4/21) south winds to be over the east edge of the Southern CA swell window at 30-35 kts with seas 33 ft at 58.75S 121W aimed northeast. Fetch fading out from there.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (5/1) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell builds Fri (5/2) mid-day to 1.8 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fades Sat (5/3) from 1.7 ft @ 14 secs early (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Sun (5/4) from 1.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.7 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 1.8 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Rough data suggest swell arrival on Fri (5/2) building to 1.0 ft @ 17 secs later (1.5 ft). Swell builds on Sat (5/3) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell holding Sun (5/4) at 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (5/5) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 204 degrees

New Zealand Gale
A gale developed south of New Zealand Sun AM (4/13) tracking east with 50-55 kts southwest winds and seas 36 ft at 59S 176.75E aimed east-northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 50 kts tracking east with seas 39 ft at 59.25S 171W aimed east-northeast. Fetch is to fade some on Mon AM (4/14) from 45 kts from the southwest with seas fading from 37 ft at 57.75S 163W aimed east-northeast. In the evening west-southwest fetch was fading from 35 kts over decent sized area with seas fading from 33 ft at 55.75S 151.25W aimed east-northeast. The gale faded Tues AM (4/15) with west winds 30 kts and seas fading from 26 ft at 55S 142W aimed east.

Oahu: Expect sideband swell arrival on Mon (4/21) building to 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell builds Tues (4/22) to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/23) from 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (4/24) from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/22) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell building Wed (4/23) to 1.5 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 15-16 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.8 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 205 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (4/22) building to 1.0 ft @ 19 secs late (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell building Wed (4/23) to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell steady on Thurs (4/24) at 2.0 ft @ 16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (4/25) from 1.9 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 203 degrees

Secondary Gale
A secondary gale formed directly behind Tues AM (4/15) producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft over a small area at 48S 153W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40-45 kts in two area close together aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 48S 158W and 50S 142W. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor relative to California down to South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.2 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.8 ft @ 17-18 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell fading Sun (4/27) from 2.3 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 2.0 ft @ 15 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (4/25) building to 1.1 ft @ 20 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell builds Sat (4/26) to 1.7 ft @ 18 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell builds Sun (4/27) to 2.1 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell fades Mon (4/28) from 1.9 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200 degrees

Another New Zealand Gale
Another gale developed south of New Zealand on Wed AM (4/16) with 45 kts west-northwest winds and seas building from 30 ft at 64S 172E aimed mostly at Antarctica. In the evening fetch swept east-northeast with southwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 36 ft at 65.5S 167.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (4/17) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 35 ft at 65.25S 153.75W aimed east. Fetch was fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a solid area aimed east-northeast with seas 32 ft at 64.25S 142.25W aimed east-northeast. Fetch was fading Fri AM (4/18) from 35 kts over the Central South Pacific with seas fading out from 27 ft at 63S 132W aimed east-northeast. Fetch dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/30) building to 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell holding Thurs (5/1) at 1.5 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell likely being overrun by new swell beyond. Swell Direction: 196 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.6 ft @ 19-20 sec later (3.0 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell holding on Tues (4/29) at 2.7 ft @ 16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/30) from from 2.8 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/1) from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs early (3.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13 secs (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival late on Sun (4/27) building to 1.2 ft @ 20-21 sec later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building Mon (4/28) to 2.0 ft @ 18 secs later (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell building Tues (4/29) at 2.6 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (4/30) from from 2.8 ft @ 15-16 secs (4.0-4.5 ft). Swell fading on Thurs (5/1) from 2.5 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (5/2) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale is forecast developing Wed PM (4/23) south of New Zealand with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a small area and seas 32 ft at 61.5S 167.5E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (4/24) the fetch is to lift northeast with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 32 ft at 58.5S 179.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch and seas fade out. Something to monitor.

Another is to develop south of New Zealand on Fri PM (4/25) with west to northwest winds 45 kts and seas 38 ft at 64S 174E aimed east-southeast. West winds to be fading from 40 kts and seas 36 ft at 64S 178W aimed east. Fetch fading from there. Something to monitor.

Modoki La Nina Collapsing
Active MJO Poised To Kill It
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.
KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/19) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/20) Today modest east anomalies were filling the East KWGA with weak west anomalies over the West KWGA with the dividing line 140E. The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at weak status over the East KWGA while west anomalies slowly build starting 4/24 reaching moderate status 4/30 pushing east to 150E and holding through the end of the model run with west anomalies building in a separate pocket on the dateline starting 5/3 and holding. La Nina is all but gone with it's remnants fading.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/19) Currently a weak Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts the Active MJO holding on day 5 then fading some on day 10 with a weak Inactive MJO (dry air) taking its place on day 15. The Dynamic model indicates the Active Phase (wet air) doing the same thing through day 10 then building to moderate strength on day 15.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/20) - The models depict the Active Phase was weak over the West Pacific. The statistic model has it moving Africa over the next 2 weeks and very weak. The dynamic model depicts it moving to the East Pacific then retrograding back to the West Pacific 15 days out and very weak.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (4/20) This model depicts a strong Active Phase (wet air) was between the East Maritime Continent and the West KWGA and forecast filling the KWGA while tracking east through 5/10. After that a moderate Inactive Phase (dry air) is to set up over the KWGA 5/15 filling it through the last day of the model run on 5/30 while tracking east.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/19) Today modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA. East anomalies are forecast fading for the next week through 4/26, rebuilding for a week to moderate strength, then fading to very weak status 5/4 and beyond but still present through the end of the model run on 5/17 while weak west anomalies are now in the West KWGA to 140E and holding through the end of the model run on 5/17 if not easing east to 150E and building to moderate strength. No Active or Inactive contours are forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/20) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies were in the Western KWGA and modest east anomalies filling the East KWGA with Active contours 1 day from developing over the entire KWGA. West anomalies are to pushing east filling the KWGA 4/23 with east anomalies limited to the dateline and points east of there but with east anomalies in one small pocket for a few days around 5/1 limited to the dateline. The Active Phase is to set up 4/22 with west anomalies filling most of the KWGA and in control as the Active Phase and it's contours fade on 5/30. A weak Inactive MJO is forecast starting in the west 5/6 holding over the KWGA through 6/26 but with west anomalies fully in control of KWGA if not most of the Equatorial Pacific. An Active Phase to follow in the west on 6/18 tracking over the KWGA through the end of the model run with west anomalies building to moderate status over the dateline starting. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean (started 4/28/24) with one contour and is to start easing east into the West Pacific 5/22 slow then more quickly 6/7 and reaching the dateline at the end of the model run. The high pressure bias was over the dateline with 3 contours. The third is to fade 4/28 and the second 5/15. The third is to be east of the KWGA on 6/10. This suggests La Nina is poised to start dissipate in the atmosphere by late-April.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (4/20) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was back but retreating from 167E to 165E. The 28 deg isotherm line had retrograded from 177E to 170E but was now solid moving east from 177W to 174W. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in density in the east with a 28 deg contour now appearing there. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and +3 degs in the East Pacific and now connected above 100 meters. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were spread between 160W to 115W 150 to 125 meters down. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/13 indicates cool anomalies were weakly filling the the upper thermocline (75 meters or higher) in the west between 156E east to 130W but only -0.5 to -1.0 degs and getting warmer. Warm anomalies were building at depth in the east. Warm anomalies were also filling the area west of the dateline and building while steady at 160W. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/13) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were 0-5 cms above normal from Ecuador to 150W and negative at only -5 cms from 150W west to 170W with 2 pockets to 15 to 20 cms straddling the equator at 155W while weakening. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/13) the cool pool was collapsing if not gone with one last remnant between 153W-160W at.-0.5 degs below normal and shrinking in size. Weak warm anomalies were between Ecuador to 145W. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Much warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 175W and near +2 degs.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/16) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was all but gone over the West Equatorial Pacific between 145W to 165E. Cool anomalies were streaming off the California coast falling southwest reaching this pool outlining the normal Springtime Gulf of Alaska high pressure system but weakening some. Warm anomalies were over the East Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 125W but losing density with a cool stream stating to appear between 100W-115W. This is beginning to looks very much like ENSO Neutral.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/19): Temps were cooling rapidly in a broad pocket from Ecuador to 120W. Modest warming were on the equator from 130W to 160E.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/20) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were falling hard at +0.145.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/20) Today's temps were rising at -0.181.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were negative at -0.1 week of 4/2 and 4/9. Previously temps were +0.2 (3/26), -0.1 (3/19), 0.3 (3/12), 0.0 (3/5), -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27).
Monthly Data is -0.01 March, -0.43 Feb, -0.73 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.90 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb. Then temps started fading down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec 2024, -0.75 in Jan 2025 and -0.6 in Feb. Temp unexpectedly rose to +0.075 degs in March. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Jan, Feb and March 2025.
Forecast (4/20) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast). Temps to rise to +0.00 in July and holding through Nov, then rising to +0.10 degs in Dec and +0.45 in Jan 2026. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.196 (up from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 10th month below neutral since El Nino faded. Temps to rise slightly to -0.090 degs in June-July-Aug. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here to -0.046 JJA then falling to -0.320 SON then rising some to -0.257 at the end of the model run on NDJ. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to -0.094 JJA dropping to -0.290 OND and up to -0.282 NDJ. In other words, we are well past the peak of La Nina now moving fast to ENSO neutral. The models generally suggests a return to near neutral biased slightly cool next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (4/19) the Daily Index was positive at +0.79 and falling the previous 3 days but otherwise steadily positive the past month.
The 30 day average was falling at +7.66 and has been generally steady the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling at +8.24 and weakly in La Nina territory.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec 2024 and now -1.32 in Jan 2025, -1.45 in Feb and -1.12 in March. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.