Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Buoy 239 is Down - Using 238. Seas were 4.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 13.5 secs from 181 degrees. Water temp 81.3 (Barbers Pt), 81.9 (Pearl Harbor 233), NA (Lani 239).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 6.4 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 4.5 ft @ 9.3 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 80.2 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Seas were 4.6 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 3.7 ft @ 7.6 secs from 15 degrees. Water temp 80.1 degs, 78.3 (Hanalei).
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 3.0 ft @ 15.9 secs with swell 1.5 ft @ 16.4 secs from 195 degrees. Wind N 6-8 kts. Water temperature 73.6 degs, 66.2 (Harvest 071), 73.4 (Topanga 103), 68.4 (Long Beach 215), 73.6 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 71.8 (Del Mar 153), 73.0 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 2.0 ft @ 15.8 secs from 231 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 1.0 ft @ 9.9 secs from 251 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.4 ft @ 16.3 secs from 221 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.9 ft @ 16.0 secs from 196 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.8 ft @ 16.2 secs from 208 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was NA ft from NA degrees. Water temperature NA.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 13.3 secs from 259 degrees. Wind northwest 6-8 kts (San Francisco 46026), NW 10 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), WNW 4 kts (Half Moon Bay 46012) and NW 10-12 (Monterey Bay (46042). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 62.8 (Pt Reyes 029), 62.2 (San Francisco 46026), NA (SF Bar 142), 61.7 (Half Moon Bay 46012), 61.3 (Monterey Bay 46042), 61.0 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (9/10) in North and Central CA surf was waist to maybe chest high and weakly lined up coming from the northwest and clean on the surface with no winds but with some underlying warble and mushed early. Protected breaks were thigh to waist high and weakly lined up and very soft and real clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was chest to shoulder high on the sets and lined up with good form and clean but a bit inconsistent early. In Ventura County surf was waist high on the sets and reasonably lined up and sectioned and soft but cleanish early but with some intermixed warble. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined coming from the south all breaking just off the beach and a bit closed out with light winds and fairly clean early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at head high and lined up with good form and clean but soft early. North San Diego had sets at waist to maybe chest high and lined up and clean but soft. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore had sets at chest high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting tradewind generated easterly windswell at waist high and warbled if not lightly chopped from modest east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (9/10) California and Hawaii were getting modest southern hemi swell from a gael previously south of New Zealand.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (9/10) and looking a week out the jet is to be unsupportive of gale formation. It is displaced well to the north tracking either over the Aleutians in the west and north of there in the east. There is some sense it is to try to fall to the south mainly over the far West North Pacific over the next week, but even at that, not enough to drive tropical systems to recurve northeast or to support Fall/Winter storm development.

Surface Analysis
No swell of interest was hitting the coast originating from the North Pacific.

Tropical Update
Tropical Storm Lowell on Thursday AM (9/10) was 600 nmiles northwest of Kauai with winds at 50 kts tracking west-northwest and of no concern to anyone but shipping interests. Lowell is forecast to continue on this track while slowly weakening turning post tropical on Sun (9/13) with winds 35 kts and fading out 2 days later. No swell production of interest is forecast relative to our forecast area.

Tropical Storm Norbert was positioned 900 nmiles south-southwest of Pt Conception with winds 35 kts tracking west and is forecast to continue on that track while slowly building, reaching minimal hurricane status on Mon (9/14) with winds 65 kts and mid-way between Cabo San Lucas and Hawaii. Something to monitor relative to the Islands.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (9/11) high pressure builds in with northwest winds 15-20 kts for all of North CA an 15+ kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay and 10 kts in between early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15-20 kts for all of North and Central CA. Local windswell building slightly.
Sat AM (9/12) high pressure builds in weakly with northwest winds 15-20 kts for most of North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay and 15 kts in between early. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 15 kts for North CA and 20+ kts south of the Golden Gate over all of Central CA. Local windswell fading some.
Sun AM (9/13) northwest winds to be 20 kts for North CA and 20-25 kts south of Monterey Bay early. In the afternoon northwest winds build in coverage at 20-25kts solid for North CA and 20-25 kts for Central CA. Windswell building later.
Mon AM (9/14) northwest winds to build at 20-25 kts for North CA and 20 kts for Central CA. In the afternoon no real change is forecast. Windswell holding.
Tues AM (9/15) northwest winds to be 20+ kts for North CA and 15+ kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the gradient fades with northwest winds 15-20 kts mainly over Cape Mendocino and 10 kts for Bodega Bay and all of Central CA. Windswell fading.
Wed AM (9/16) northwest winds to be 10-15 kts for North CA and 10 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds fade from 5-10 kts for North and Central CA. Windswell gone.
Thurs AM (9/17) northwest winds to be 5-10 kts for North and Central CA early. No windswell forecast.

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Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (9/10) most wind energy was in the northern branch of the jetstream running flat east on the 27S latitude line and of no interest. The influential southern branch of the jet had a ridge pushing south over the Central South Pacific pushing into Antarctica offering no support for gale formation. But winds were tracking east under New Zealand at 150-160 kts trying to form a trough supportive of gale formation, though not quite there yet. Over the next 72 hours the ridge is to continue crashing into the Ross Ice Shelf shutting down potential for gale formation while at the same time the trough under New Zealand is to start lifting steadily to the northeast at 130 kts early Fri (9/11) forming a legitimate trough supportive of gale formation. And that trough is to hold just east of New Zealand into Sat (9/12) supporting gale formation before fading out. Beyond 72 hours the ridge over the Central Pacific is to hold and then pulse on Sat (9/12) dragging the jet under New Zealand south with it through Tues (9/15) actively suppressing support for gale formation. But the model suggests another trough is to develop southwest of New Zealand on Wed 99/16) being fed by 140 kts winds pushing east and clear of New Zealand on Thurs (9/17) possibly supportive of gale formation. There is still hope.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (9/10) small swell from a gale previously south of New Zealand was fading in Hawaii and stating to show in California shortly (see Second New Zealand Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale developed over the Southeast Pacific likely targeting California down into Central and South America (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing south of the Tasman Sea on Thurs PM (9/10) with 40 kt southwest winds and seas 35 ft at 55.25S 155.25E aimed northeast and in the CA swell window (219-220 degs). On Fri AM (9/11) the gale is to be due south of New Zealand with southwest winds fading to 35 kts with seas fading from 32 ft at 51.25S 164.25E aimed east-northeast and impacting Auckland Island. In the evening 30-35 kts southwest winds to track northeast with seas 27 ft at 51S 174.75E aimed northeast. On Sat AM (9/12) fetch is to be gone. Low odds of any meaningful swell resulting.

Second New Zealand Gale
On Sun PM (8/30) a gale started developing south of New Zealand producing southwest winds at 35-40 kts starting to get traction with seas building from 24 ft at 52S 165E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (8/31) the gale developed more south of New Zealand producing southwest winds at 40 kts and seas 29 ft at 55.5S 167E aimed well northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 35 kts lifting northeast with seas 28-30 ft at 51.5S 174E aimed northeast. On Tues AM (9/1) fetch continued lifting northeast with southwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft at 49S 175W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading in coverage in the evening from 30-35 kts east of southern New Zealand with seas fading from 26 ft at 49S 171W aimed northeast. The gale dissipated from there. Perhaps some swell is to radiating northeast towards Hawaii and CA.

Oahu: Dribbles on Thurs (9/10) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

Southern CA: Swell builds on Thurs (9/10) to 1.9 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell steady on Fri (9/11) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (9/12) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (9/13) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 215 degrees

North CA: Swell builds on Thurs (9/10) to 1.8 ft @ 16-17 secs later (3.0 ft). Swell steady on Fri (9/11) at 2.1 ft @ 15-16 secs (3.0 ft). Swell fading on Sat (9/12) from 2.0 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Dribbles on Sun (9/13) fading from 1.7 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 213 degrees

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small storm developed over the SE Pacific on Mon PM (9/7) with 50 kts southwest winds tracking east and seas building from 25 ft over a infinitesimal sized area aimed east at 50.5S 147W. On Tues AM (9/8) southwest winds were forecast building to 45 kts over a small area lifting northeast with seas 27 ft over a small area at 51S 144W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest fetch faded from 40 kts with seas building to 33 ft at 49.5S 137.75W aimed northeast. Fetch was fading Wed AM (9/9) from 30-35 kts with seas 29 ft at 46.5S 130W aimed east-northeast. The gale to dissipated after that. Perhaps small swell to result for California down into South America.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (9/16) building to 1.3 ft @ 17 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Thurs (9/17) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (9/18) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (9/16) building to 1.1 ft @ 17-18 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell peaks on Thurs (9/17) at 1.5 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (9/18) from 1.4 ft @ 14-15 secs (2.0 ft) early. Swell Direction: 195 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast tracking east under the Tasman Sea on Wed PM (9/16) with 50-55 kt southwest winds and seas 42 ft at 51.75S 159E aimed east. On Thurs AM (9/17) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts free and clear of land south of New Zealand with seas 37 ft at 48.75S 165E aimed northeast. But this is 180 hours our. Something to monitor.

El Nino In Control Over the Equatorial Pacific
Large Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 Erupting off Ecuador - Kevin Wave #5 Backfilling the Warm Pool
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warm subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #2. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 started impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 developed with strong west anomalies holding into 4/15. Large Kelvin Wave #3 started erupting over Ecuador early April. And another huge Westerly Wind Burst developed over the KWGA 5/17-8/2 setting up Kelvin Waves #4 that erupted in early July and #5 backfilling the warm pool in early Aug through Sept. Lower pressure is building over the dateline and high pressure is building over the Maritime Continent. A full turn to El Nino has set up over the equatorial Pacific, and likely strong. West anomalies were rebuilding 8/13 and forecast continuing non-stop for the foreseeable future.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: In the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026) with Kelvin Waves impacting Ecuador Feb 20, March 1, and then a big on on April 15. Then another WWB occurred starting 5/18 and continued non-stop through 8/3 producing 2 more huge Kelvin Waves (#4 erupting 7/5 and #5 erupting/backfilling the East Pacific warm pool starting 8/5). And a major westerly wind burst started again on 8/13 in the West Pacific and is to continue unchanged through at least Nov. The PDO is still weakly in the cool phase as of Aug 2026 but appears to be having no impact on the development of El Nino. A major El Nino is developing, possible stronger than '82 or '97 both of which are considered 'gold standard' events.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (9/9) 5 day average winds were moderate east over the East Equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate to strong west over the dateline and over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific, moderate to strong west over the Central Pacific, strong west over the dateline and the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (9/10) Using CyclonicWX GFS 850 mb Zonal Wind Anomaly forecast: Moderate to strong west anomalies are over the KWGA today and forecast holding at moderate to strong status through 9/18, then moderate through the end of the model run on 9/20. Actual west winds are blowing moderately over the dateline forecast holding into 9/14, then weakening to modest status and shrinking in coverage and almost gone at the end of the model run. The ECMWF model suggests essentially the same thing but stronger with anomalies holding at moderate strength the last few days of the model run and actual west winds holding at modest strength then last few days of the model run. An amazing run of westerly anomalies started May 18 persisted unchanged through 8/4 (2.5 months), then faded some. But a week later on 8/11 that pattern redeveloped and is forecast holding beyond.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (9/9) Currently a neutral pattern (neither wet or dry air) biased dry was depicted over the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a neutral pattern holding unchanged through day 15 of the model run. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (9/10) - Today the models depicts the Active Phase was weak over the East Pacific. The statistic model has the Active Phase moving steadily east to the Central Indian Ocean and very weak 15 days out. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase noodling around the East Pacific through the end of the model run and very weak.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/9) Today strong west anomalies were in control of the KWGA (since 8/13) with no contours indicated. The forecast indicates west anomalies to remain strong unchanged through the end of the model run on 10/7 with no contours developing. This clearly suggests El Nino is strongly coupled with the atmosphere and the major mode of tropical variability with no real MJO signal returning.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (9/9) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today moderate to strong west anomalies were in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline with an Active MJO fading in the east and the Inactive Phase weak in the far West. Looking forward west anomalies are to hold strong into 9/11 then fading to moderate status as the Inactive Phase exerts some control but not making it to 150E through 9/27. After that an Active MJO is to transit the KWGA 9/27-11/7 with very strong west anomalies in control. The Inactive MJO is to follow over the KWGA 10/20 through the end of the model run on 12/7 but with west anomalies fading from strong to moderate status. The ENSO form of tropical variability has taken over the equatorial Pacific and is to keep west anomalies blowing. The low pass filter indicates the low pressure bias is filling the dateline region today with 5 contours (1st over the dateline 4/16, 2nd 6/12, 3rd on 7/9, 4th 7/26, and 5th on 8/20). The forecast builds from here forward with a 6th on Sept 11. and a 7th 10/21 holding through the end of the model run. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias is at 120W today with 1 contour and is to fade out in early Nov. A high pressure contour developed over the Maritime Continent at 70E on 6/13 and is to hold there for the foreseeable future building with a second contour on 9/17 and a third on 10/23. A wholesale pressure and wind pattern change has occurred over the equatorial Pacific and that pattern is strengthening day by day as we move into Fall and Winter. El Nino is here and building.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (9/10) in the far West Pacific the leading east edge of the 30 degree isotherm was easing east from 143W to 141W, the 29 degree isotherm moving east from 127W to 126W. The 28 deg isotherm line has migrated almost the whole way across the Pacific (96W) then retrograded some and is on the move again from 109W to 105W today. An amazing push of warm water has moved east in sync with collapse of equatorial tradewinds and continues to this date. The 24 deg isotherm had been thickening steadily while pushing into Ecuador down to 79m in June then rose to 69m in late July, but fell back to 79m early Aug then 82m, 90m 8/31 and 96m today. Anomaly wise this strong change has been reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) Kevin Waves #4 and #5 erupting and backfilling into the warm pool with +4 deg anomalies or more tracking east from 163W and +10 degs in it's core 100m down from 125W to Ecuador. Amazing. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 9/5 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave with +4 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) pushing east from 165W into Ecuador and up to +6-7 degs in it's core from 155W to 85W and erupting to the surface in the Pacific east of the dateline. Warm anomalies continue filling the entire subsurface Pacific. The GODAS animation is 5 days behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since it's satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (9/5) Sea heights over most of the equatorial Pacific were positive from 180W pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast at +10-15 cms and north to Pt Conception CA. Kelvin Waves #1, #2 and #3 have already hit (priming the proverbial pump). Kelvin Wave #4 was now filling the entire Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 170W with a large area of +10 cms anomalies pushing east from 170W, +15 cms pushing east from 165W, +20 cm anomalies were filling the area from now 160W (previously 130W and before that 110W) to the Galapagos, +25 cms from 155 cms eastward, +30 cms from 145W eastward. And now a mind melting area of 35 cm anomalies are centered at 110W and extends from 115W to 90W. Super impressive. The entire equatorial West Pacific warm pool is 'sloshing' east creating a huge reservoir of warm water erupting over the Galapagos.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (9/5) indicates warm anomalies at +2.5 degs C or more started filling a huge area over the East Pacific (from 155W early July) and continue today. +3.5 degree anomalies started at 140W on 7/15 building to 145W Aug 1, then contracted slightly mid-Aug to 135W, then returned to 145W Sept 1 and are building to 145 today.(9/5). On December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan impacting Ecuador March 1. Kelvin Wave #3 started moving east late Feb impacting Ecuador 4/15. Kelvin Wave #4 developed the west mid-May hitting the preexisting warm pool on 7/7 building/backfilling it further to the west. And Kelvin Wave #5 appears to be backfilling that on 8/1 arriving in the east on 8/15. A clear sign of discharge was indicated in the west starting late March and stronger mid-April with deeper discharge was occurring over a small area at 155E 7/20 but has gotten no worse. That said, actual water temps are 29-30 degs C in the West and only 26-27 in the East (+3 degs C difference offering plenty of fuel for future Kelvin Wave development).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (9/9) In the latest image a clear El Nino signal was present and expanding in coverage to the west. The area of super warm anomalies (4-5+ degs) were in place from Peru up off Ecuador west to the Galapagos and had expanded west of the Galapagos from 125W to 130W then 135W with faint signals expanding from 145W today. Kelvin Wave #4 was erupting now and Kevin Wave #5 was backfilling into it's void in the East Pacific warm pool. Moderate warm anomalies were west of there to 175W and lesser warmth east to New Guinea. The ocean started showing clear signs of El Nino warming at the oceans surface in mid-March and coupled with the atmosphere now (3 months later mid-June). As of 8/28 images are beating the heat coverage at the surface for he same date in 1997. Amazing.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (9/9): A weak pool of warming was on the equator from Ecuador to 95W. Otherwise a neutral trend or slight warming was in control of the rest of the equatorial Pacific.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/10) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising more at +4.009 rising from +3.854 (9/8) +3.599 (9/3). Temps have been toggling +3.0-+3.9 since 7/14. Some points include +3.188 (8/28), +3.2904 (8/25), +3.604 (8/17), +3.9 (8/14), +3.738 (7/31) and +3.185 (7/20). Temps in general have been steadily rising. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (9/10) Today's temps were rising slightly at +2.418 from +2.252 (9/3). Temps have been hovering at about +2.25 since 8/4 . Some points include +2.347 (8/25), +2.329 (8/17), +2.018 (7/21), +1.845 (7/16), +1.380 (7/4), +1.293 (6/26), 1.316 (6/28), +1.451 (6/21) and had been rising since 6/9, and rising before that steadily from 5/28 at +0.8 degs since (5/2), then +0.597 since 4/23, rising 10 days prior after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly RONI Anomalies were steady at +1.8 (8/12, 8/19, 8/26 & 9/2). They were +1.7 (8/5), +1.6 (7/29), +1.4 RONI (week of 7/15 & 7/22), +2.0/+1.3 RONI (week of 7/8), +1.8/+1.2 (week of 7/1 and 6/24), +1.7/+1.1 (6/17), +1.5/0.9 RONI (6/10), +1.3/+0.7 (6/3), +1.0/+0.5 (5/20 & 5/27), +0.9 (4/29, 5/6 & 5/13), +0.4 the first 2 weeks and +0.5 (RONI).
Monthly ERSST RONI Data is +1.34 July, +1.07 June +0.52 May, -0.13 April,
Seasonal ERSST 3 Month RONI is +0.98 (MJJ), +0.49 AMJ, -0.04 MAM, -0.44 FMA, -0.76 (JFM), -0.91 (DJF).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Jan Relative temps were -1.0 turning neutral (0.0) in April +1.0 in June.
Forecast (8/28) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward. Raw forecast suggests temp peaking at +3.90 in early Nov (down from +4.45 8/17). The Relative forecast has temps peaking at +3.30 in early Nov (down from +3.75 degs 8/17). The 3 month forecast suggest temps peaking at +3.00 in OND. The 3 month PDF & Spread Corrected value is +2.00 (down from 2.4 on 8/17). It looks like we are moving into some flavor of 'Super' El Nino.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Aug 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +2.0 today (July OBS). The Dynamic average suggest temps rising to +3.5 OND. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +2.8 (NDJ). Relative temps to reach 3.35 degs NDJ. Per the average of all models, we are at minimal Strong El Nino status today and moving to Super status in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
The SOI is clearly indicating an El Nino signal.
Today (9/10) the Daily Index was -19.73, and has been almost exclusively negative since 3/25 and at times very negative (-30 or less). It dipped to -40.01 (7/15), -44.81 on 7/7.
The 30 day average was falling at -15.51 after previously peaking at -27.88 (8/1), -27.87 (7/20) and -23.61 (6/27) and has been rising from -19.84 a month ago (due to the Inactive MJO in early Aug).
The 90 day average was rising slightly at -19.92 and previously peaked on 8/6 at -21.92 and -22.41 (8/21) after turning negative the first time in a very long time on 5/14 at -0.07. It was -21.91 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady at -1.11 Aug, -1.29 July, -1.32 June, -1.64 May, -1.28 April, March -1.44, Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.