BUOY ROUNDUP
Tuesday, June 16, 2026 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (6/16) in North and Central CA surf was waist high and fairly lined up but weak and mushed and slightly warbled from light south wind with gloom well off the deck. Protected breaks were knee high or so and weakly lined up with decent form but very soft and clean early. At Santa Cruz surf was head high on the sets with rare ones 1-2 ft overhead and a bit closed out and powerful and clean. In Ventura County the surf was up to head high on the sets and lined up if not closed out and sectiony and strong but fairly clean early but with warbled in the water. Central Orange County had sets at head high and lined up if not closed out breaking hard and with some warble on top early. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had set waves at 1-2 ft overhead and lined up bordering on closed out and clean but with some warble in the mix making it uneven. North San Diego had sets at 1 ft overhead and super lined up if not closed out and clean and overwhelming the bars. Oahu's North Shore was flat and clean. The South Shore still had sets 1-2 ft overhead and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was getting easterly tradewind generated windswell at thigh high and warbled if not chopped from modest easterly trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (6/16) California was getting the fading remnants of swell from a gale that developed over the Southeast Pacific lifting northeast Thurs-Sat (6/6) producing 26-28 ft seas aimed northeast and that swell was starting to get overwhelmed by new Swell #3S that originated from a storm that tracked hard northeast from a point under New Zealand Sun-Tues (6/9) with up to 48 ft seas aimed well north. Another gale developed over the upper reaches of the Central SPac Thurs-Fri (6/12) with up to 26 ft seas aimed well north and northeast. Another gale formed while tracking east-northeast from under New Zealand Sun-Mon (6/15) with up to 33 ft seas aimed well northeast with secondary energy developing southeast of New Zealand Wed-Thurs (6/18) with up to 36 ft seas over a small area aimed northeast. Another broader system is to develop Southeast of New Zealand tracking well east-northeast Sun-Tues (8/23) with up to 38 ft seas aimed east-northeast. And active pattern to continue.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest was hitting the coast originating from the North Pacific.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (6/16) the southern branch of the jetstream was lifting northeast under New Zealand with winds 160 kts forming a trough just SE of NZ supporting gale formation. East of there the jet was weak but forming a trough over the SE Pacific but with winds only 80 kts feeding into it offering no support for gale formation. Over the next 72 hours starting Wed (6/17) the trough under New Zealand is to continue tracking east while moderating over the Central S. Pacific into early Fri (8/19) still offering some degree of support for gale formation, then dissipating with a zonal flow setting up offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours starting later Sat (6/20) the jet is to start lifting northeast under New Zealand being fed by 140 kt winds forming a trough supportive of gale formation and sweeping east into Mon (8/22) before fading. Winds to again start building south of New Zealand on Fri (6/19) to 150 kts lifting northeast perhaps starting to form another trough sweeping east into Sat (6/20) supporting gale formation. And another trough is forecast under New Zealand on Tues (6/23) being fed by 150 kts winds again supporting gale formation. A good environment for gale development is to persist at the jetstream level fueled by westerly anomalies on the equator in the West Pacific, even in the absence of the Active Phase of the MJO. This could be a major step forward towards the development of El Nino. We'll see if this pattern holds.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (6/16) swell was fading out in California originating from a small gale that tracked over the Central South Pacific (see Small Central SPac Gale below). Of more interest is swell that is fading in Hawaii and starting to show in California originating from a storm that lifted hard north up the coast of New Zealand (see New Zealand Storm #3S below). And swell is propagating northeast from a small gale that developed over the Central S Pacific (see Weak Central S. Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Wed AM (6/17) a gale is forecast developing while pushing east under New Zealand with a broad area of 40-45 kts west winds and seas 31 ft at 55.5S 164.25E aimed east. In the evening west fetch is to be 40-45 kts tracking east with seas 36 ft at 53.3S 177.75W aimed east and northeast. On Thurs AM (6/18) fetch is to be fading over the Central South Pacific from 30-35 kts with seas 29-30 ft over a broad swatch of the Central and West SPac centered at 53S between 176W to 153W aimed east-northeast. Fetch fading from 30-35 kts in the evening with seas fading from 26 ft at 55S 160W. Something to monitor.

Small Central SPac Gale
On Thurs AM (6/4) yet another gale developed in the Central South Pacific with southwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area aimed well northeast with seas building from 24 ft at 59S 165W and a bit fragmented. In the afternoon southwest winds consolidated at 35-40 kts over a solid area and seas building from 25 ft at 54.5S 153W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (96/5) south winds consolidated at 30-35 kts with seas 28 ft at 55S 141W aimed northeast. In the evening south-southwest winds to lift northeast at 30-35 kts with seas 25 ft at 50S 135W aimed northeast. Fetch fading Sat AM (6/6) from 30+ kts from the south with seas 24 ft at 52S 139.5W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Residuals on Tues (6/16) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

North CA: Residuals on Tues (6/16) from 2.5 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 188 degrees

New Zealand Storm - Swell #3S (for Hawaii)
On Sun AM (6/7) a small storm developed southwest of New Zealand with southwest winds 55-60 kts and seas build to 43 ft at 54.25S 159E aimed east. In the evening the storm pushed east with 50-55 kt winds aimed northeast with seas 45 ft at 52.5S 172E aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/8) the storm started lifting northeast with southwest winds 45-50 kts over a small area and seas 44 ft at at 50.5S 175.75E aimed northeast. In the evening the gale raced hard north with south winds fading from 40 kts just east of the north island of NZ with seas 37 ft at 45S 177.5E aimed north-northeast. On Tues AM (6/9) south-southwest winds were 35 kts just east of New Zealand with seas 32 ft at 39.5S 175.75W aimed north. Fetch fading in the evening from 30 kts over a fading small area with seas 29 ft at 36S 174W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell holds Tues (6/16) at 3.1 ft @ 14-15 secs mid-day (4.5 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fades Wed (6/17) from 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 196 degrees-200 degrees

Southern CA: Swell builds Tues (6/16) to 1.8 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaks Wed (6/17) at 2.4 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.3 ft with seas to 5.3 ft). Swell holds Thurs (6/18) at 2.5 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.0 ft with sets to 5.2 ft). Swell fades Fri (6/19) from 2.4 ft @ 15 secs (3.5 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/20) fading from 2.1 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 219-220 degrees

North CA: Swell builds Tues (6/16) to 1.9 ft @ 19 secs later (3.5 ft). Swell peaks Wed (6/17) at 2.6 ft @ 17-18 secs later (4.5 ft with seas to 5.7 ft). Swell holds Thurs (6/18) at 2.7 ft @ 16-17 secs (4.4 ft with sets to 5.5 ft). Swell fades Fri (6/19) from 2.6 ft @ 15 secs (3.8 ft). Residuals on Sat (6/20) fading from 2.2 ft @ 14 secs (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 217-219 degrees

Weak Central S. Pacific Gale
A gale developed over the Central South Pacific Thurs AM (6/11) with south winds 35 kts over a solid area and seas building from 25 ft at 50S 160W aimed north. In the evening south winds held at 35-40 kts lifting due north with seas 25-26 ft at 49S 154W aimed due north. On Fri AM (6/12) southwest winds faded from 30 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 48S 154.5W aimed north-northeast. Fetch dissipated after that. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Wed (6/17) building to 1.6 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.5 ft). swell builds on Thurs (6/18) to 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Swell fades Fri (6/19) from 2.6 ft @ 13-14 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (6/20) fading from 2.1 ft @ 12-13 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 184 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/19) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell builds Sat (6/20) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell fades Sun (6/21) from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/22) fading from 1.8 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 200-205 degrees.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Fri (6/19) building to 1.4 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell builds Sat (6/20) to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs early (3.5 ft) holding through the day. Swell fades Sun (6/21) from 2.1 ft @ 15 secs (3.0-3.5 ft). Residuals on Mon (6/22) fading from 2.0 ft @ 14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 200-205 degrees.

Weak New Zealand Gale
On Sun AM (6/14) a gale developed south-southeast of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-southwest winds and seas building. In the evening the gael continued east-northeast with a building area of southwest winds 40-45 kts and seas 29 ft at 60S 180W aimed east-northeast. On Mon AM (6/15) southwest winds built in coverage at 40-45 kts with seas 33 ft at 57.25S 166W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch was fading while lifting well northeast at 40 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 50.5S 150.75W aimed northeast. And a broad secondary fetch started developing right behind that area in the evening producing 45 kt west winds and 27 ft seas at 57S 175W aimed east. That fetch to persist into Tues PM (6/16) at 35-40 kts but aimed more southeast than east with seas 26 ft at 56S 168W aimed east. Sideband swell is possible.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Mon (6/22) building to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs later (2.0 ft). Swell to peak on Tues (6/23) at 1.1 ft @ 15-16 secs early (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading after that. Swell Direction: 188 degrees

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/23) building to 1.6 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell peaks on Wed (6/24) at 2.2 ft @ 17 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/25) from 2.5 ft @ 15-16 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/26) fading from 2.5 ft @ 14 secs early (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 198 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (6/23) building to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs later (2.5 ft). Swell peaks on Wed (6/24) at 2.1 ft @ 17-18 secs mid-day (3.5 ft). Swell fading Thurs (6/25) from 2.3 ft @ 16 secs early (3.5 ft). Residuals on Fri (6/26) fading from 2.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (3.0-3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 195 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Sat PM (6/20) a broad fetch of southwest winds are forecast developing south of New Zealand at 45-50 kts with seas building from 33 ft at 58.25S 162E aimed east-northeast. On Sun AM (6/21) 50-60 kt southwest winds are to be building southeast of New Zealand with seas 38 ft at 55.5S 179.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be tracking east with southwest winds 50 kts and seas 37 ft at 58S 138.25W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (6/22) southwest winds to be 40-45 kts over the Central SPac with seas 36 ft at 55S 157.5W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 35-40 kts aimed northeast with seas fading from 35 ft at 52.5S 152W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

El Nino Strongly Developing and Might Be Coupled
Large Kelvin Wave #3 Erupting in Ecuador - Kevin Wave #4 Developing
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warm subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #2. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 started impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 developed with strong west anomalies holding into 4/15. Large Kelvin Wave #3 is erupting over Ecuador. And a Westerly Wind Burst started over the KWGA 5/17 and continue today likely setting up Kelvin Wave #4. Lower pressure is building over the dateline and high pressure is building over the Maritime Continent. A full turn to El Nino is setting up over the equatorial Pacific, possibly strongly so.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are a lot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWB and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (6/15) 5 day average winds were moderate to strong east over the East Equatorial Pacific fading to modest east over the Central Pacific and modest east over the dateline then moderate to strong west over the KWGA. Anomalies were neutral over the East Pacific, modest to moderate west over the Central Pacific and strong west over the dateline and strong west over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (6/9) This Chart HAS NOT updated since 6/9. Today modest east anomalies were over the far west KWGA filling the west 40% of it and moderate-strong west anomalies over the dateline filling 60% of the KWGA. The forecast suggests more of the same through 6/19. After that the stronger west anomalies fade with weak west anomalies over most of the KWGA and east anomalies over just a tiny area of the far West KWGA through the end of the model run on 6/25. This is a modest upgrade and starting to approach where the CFS model suggests we are going. There has been a steady disconnect between the GFS and the CFS models (see CFS projections below). West anomalies started in earnest of the KWGA on 517 and are holding today and forecast through 6/17. That should produce Kelvin Wave #4.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (6/16) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was easing east from 167W to 164W. The 29 degree isotherm was easing east from 149W to 145W. The 28 deg isotherm line has retrograded from the whole way across the Pacific (96W) then retrograded to 122W and is now at 118W today. An amazing push of warm water has moved east in sync with collapse of equatorial tradewinds. The 24 deg isotherm was thickening steadily while pushing into Ecuador at 63m down. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave #3 and +6-7 degs erupting to the surface in the East Pacific and +4 deg anomalies or more tracking east from 154W. Kelvin Wave #3 is erupting now with an amazing amount of warm water behind it. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 6/12 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave with +5 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) from 145W to Ecuador and up to +6 degs in it's core from 140W eastward and erupting to the surface in the East Pacific at 85W. Warm anomalies continue filling the entire subsurface Pacific. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (6/12) Sea heights over most of the equatorial Pacific were positive from 145E pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast at +20 cms. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 have already hit (priming the proverbial pump). Kelvin Wave #3 was now filling the entire Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 150E with a large area of +10-15 cms anomalies between 90W-170W building in coverage. The entire equatorial West Pacific warm pool is 'sloshing' east.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (6/12) indicates warm anomalies at +2.5 degs C were filling the equatorial Pacific from 95W impacting Ecuador (80W) since 5/1 and if anything are building out at 120W again. In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is still impacting Ecuador now but past its prime. Kelvin Wave #3 started impacting Ecuador 5/1 driven by previous westerly anomalies. A clear sign of discharge was indicated in the west starting late March and much stronger again in mid-April holding through late May, but now clearly showing signs of recharging since 5/28. That said actual water temps are +30-+31 degs C in the West and only +25 in the East (+5 degs C difference offering plenty of fuel for future Kelvin Wave development).

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (6/15) In the latest image a clear El Nino signal was building, indicated by warm anomalies filling the entire equator Pacific with a building area of super warm anomalies from Peru up to Ecuador and west to the Galapagos continuous and building in coverage indicative of Kelvin Wave #3 erupting there now. Moderate warm anomalies were west of there to New Guinea. The ocean started showing clear signs of El Nino in mid-March and the atmosphere is now indicating it 3 months later (mid-June). coupling is starting now. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): This chart is now showing the development of El Nino too with warm anomalies on the equator from Ecuador to well west of the dateline, warmest near Peru and Ecuador up to the Galapagos.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (6/15): Modest warming was indicated along Ecuador out to the Galapagos as one would expect. Otherwise temps are weakly warming from 110W out to the dateline on the equator.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/16) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were rising steadily at +2.724 up from +1.989 (6/1) after being more or less steady at +1.8 since 5/15 up from +0.967 on 5/3. Previously temps had fallen from +1.754 (4/23) down to +1.014 (4/30). Previously they were steady near +1.0 from 2/19-4/7. Before that temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (6/16) Today's temps were plateaued at +1.286 since 6/9, but otherwise had been rising steadily from 5/28 at +0.8 degs since (5/2), then +0.597 since 4/23, rising 10 days prior after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST/RONI Anomalies were rising at +1.5 (week of 6/10) and +0.9 RONI. They were +1.3/+0.7 RONI (6/3), +1.0/+0.5 (5/20 & 5/27), +0.9 (4/29, 5/6 & 5/13), +0.4 the first 2 weeks and +0.5 (RONI). Previously temps were +0.7 (4/22), +0.5 (+0.1 relative 4/15), +0.2 (3/25, 4/1 & 4/8), 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is +0.93 May, +0.42 April, +0.09 March, -0.12 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0.06 MAM, -0.45 FMA, -0.71 (JFM), -0.88 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March and +0.3 in April.
Forecast (6/16) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, at an average of +3.50 Oct-Dec peaking at +3.75 Nov 1 then +1.9 at the end of the model run March 2027. The Relative forecast has temps peaking at +3.0 degs in early Dec with a 3 months average around +2.75. It looks like we are moving into some flavor of El Nino, trending towards 'super' status.
IRI Consensus Plume: The May 20, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +1.2 today (MJJ). Temps to rise to +1.45 in JJA and and 2.0 OND. The Dynamic average suggest temps rising to +2.2 OND. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +1.85. Per the average of all models, we are at moderate El Nino status today and moving to minimal Super status in the Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (6/15) the Daily Index was -12.93 and and has been effectively negative since 3/25 and at times very negative (-30 or less). It was been very negative average -20 since 5/20.
The 30 day average was rising some at -21.65 after peaking at -21.99 (6/14) and has been falling from -8.81 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at -12.43 after turning negative the first time in a very long time on 5/14 at -0.07. It was -1.36 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady if not falling in May at -1.61, April at -1.25, March -1.44, Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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ESPN Sports Center 'Ride of a Lifetime' - The backstory of Alo Slebir's possible 100+ ft wave at Mevericks - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table