Pacific Storm & Surf Forecast (Stormsurf)

Buoy 239 (Lani)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Pt): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 2.1 ft @ 12.5 secs from 184 degrees. Water temp 76.5 (Barbers Pt), 76.3 (Pearl Harbor 233), 77.0 (Lani 239), 76.1 (Hanalei).
Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 3.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 8.4 secs from 170 degrees. Water temp 76.3 degs.
Buoy 106 (Waimea)/Buoy 202 (Hanalei): Buoy 106 is not operating - using 202. Seas were 2.9 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 2.4 ft @ 8.1 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 76.1 degs
Buoy 46025 (Santa Monica Basin): Seas were 2.8 ft @ 14.7 secs with swell 1.4 ft @ 14.0 secs from 228 degrees. Wind north 2 kts. Water temperature 61.5 degs, 58.5 (Harvest 071), 64.6 (Topanga 103), 63.0 (Long Beach 215), 65.1 (Oceanside Offshore 045), 65.7 (Del Mar 153), 65.3 (Torrey Pines Outer 100). At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 6.0 ft @ 6.6 secs from 319 degrees. At E. Santa Barbara (46053) swell was 2.2 ft @ 6.6 secs from 271 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.0 ft @ 15.7 secs from 208 degrees. At Green Beach (271) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.6 secs from 203 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 1.2 ft @ 14.9 secs from 198 degrees. Southward at Pt Loma (191) swell was 1.4 ft @ 14.5 secs from 195 degrees. Water temperature 63.9 degrees.
Buoy 029 (Pt Reyes)/Buoy 157 (Pt Sur): Seas were 10.7 ft @ 9.1 secs with swell 8.4 ft @ 8.2 secs from 323 degrees. Wind northwest 16-18 kts (San Francisco 46026), NW 21-25 kts (Bodega Bay 46013), WNW 14-16 (Half Moon Bay 46012) and W 10 (Monterey Bay (46092). Water temp NA (Bodega Bay 46013), 56.1 (Pt Reyes 029), 56.8 (San Francisco 46026), 58.3 (SF Bar 142), 57.0 (Half Moon Bay 46012), 57.2 (Monterey Bay 46092), 57.7 (Monterey Outer Canyon 156).

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (4/16) in North and Central CA surf was waist to chest high and warbled, mushed and irregular. Protected breaks had waves up to waist high and reasonably lined up and mushed with heavy texture on top bordering on warble. At Santa Cruz surf was thigh to waist high on the peaks and weakly lined up and clean early. In Ventura County the surf was knee to thigh high on the sets and weakly lined up with passable form and clean early. Central Orange County had sets at waist to sometimes chest high and lined up with decent form and clean but soft. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had rare sets at waist to maybe chest high on the peak and reasonably lined up with decent form and real clean but real weak. North San Diego had sets at waist high and lined up with some decent sections and clean. Oahu's North Shore had sets at waist high on the sets and somewhat lined up with decent form and real clean early though weak. The South Shore had sets at chest to shoulder high and lined up with good form and clean early. The East Shore was near flat and warbled with light east trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (4/16) Hawaii was getting some degree of minimal background southern hemi swell and California was getting only locally generated northwest windswell. Up north a gale is forecast tracking east-northeast from Japan while approaching the North Dateline region Fri-Sat (4/18) producing 24-25 ft seas aimed east. Former Super Typhoon Sinlaku was tracking north positioned 1,000 nmiles south of Tokyo Japan with winds 90 kts forecast recurving fully northeast on Sat (4/18) with winds dropping from 65 kts and fading fast, but the supposedly regenerating while turning extratropical on the dateline on Tues (4/21) producing 37 ft seas aimed well east. Hard to believe. A gale is forecast developing off the Pacific Northwest tracking southeast Sat-Sun (4/19) with seas 21 ft targeting North CA reasonably well. Down south a gale tracked east-northeast over the eastern edge of the CA swell window on Mon-Tues (4/18) with 28-29 ft seas aimed northeast. Swell is tracking north. And a small system was poised to develop in the Tasman Sea aimed north.

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (4/16) the jetstream was split with 2 streams running east off Japan parallel to each other then splitting more prominently one the dateline with the north branch lifting just south of the Aleutians then down the coast of Alaska pushing inland over North CA with the southern branch tracking east just north of Hawaii and then into Baja. Winds were weak over most of the jet at mostly 100 kts other than one pocket at barely 140 kts offering nothing. No troughs of interest were indicated. Over the next 72 hours starting Fri AM (4/17) the jet is to consolidate in the west then splitting on the dateline with the northern branch pushing hard north tracking into the East Bering Sea before falling hard south over the Northwestern Gulf at 140 kts starting to dig out at trough supporting gale production. That trough is to build while falling southeast into Sun AM (4/19) positioned off San Francisco supporting gale formation. Beyond 72 hours that trough is to get cutoff off San Francisco on Mon (4/20) supporting weather there and eventually moving inland over Central CA late Wed (4/22). And a trough is to develop over the dateline in the consolidated jet late Mon (4/20) tracking east and fading early Wed (4/22). After that 180 hrs out on Thurs (4/23) the jet is to be fully consolidated over the North Pacific with a trough developing just east of the dateline being fed by 120 kts winds perhaps supporting gale development.

Surface Analysis
On Thursday (4/16) no swell of interest was hitting California to Hawaii.

Over the next 72 hours starting Fri AM (4/17) a gale is forecast developing along a frontal boundary half way from Japan to the dateline producing 35-40 kt northwest winds over a small area and seas building from 22 ft at 37N 160E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to build while tracking east with northwest winds 40-45 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 37N 167E aimed southeast. On Sat AM (4/18) the gale is to be lifting northeast over the dateline with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 24-25 ft at 36.5N 174E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to be racing north-northeast with 35 kt north winds and seas 22 ft at 38N 178E aimed southeast. The gale is to fade out after that. Something to monitor.

On Sat AM (4/18) a gale is forecast developing well off Vancouver Island falling south with north winds 30-35 kts and seas building. In the evening northwest winds to be 35 kts off North Oregon with seas 21 ft at 46N 140.5W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (4/29) the gale is to fall south with northwest with it's core well off the OR-CA border with winds 35 kts and seas 22 ft at 44.5N 140W aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to fall south and fade with northwest winds fading from 30 kts and seas fading from 21 ft at 40N 140W or 1,100 nmiles west-northwest of San Francisco. Low pressure to continue falling southeast from there over open waters and winds dropping from 25 kts Mon AM (4/20). moving onshore over Central CA on Tues (4/21). Something to monitor at least in terms of rain for CA.

And Typhoon Sinlaku is to recurve northeast and build to extratropical storm status over the dateline....maybe (see Tropical Update below).

Tropical Update
On Tuesday Am (4/14) Typhoon Sinlaku was tracking north-northwest positioned 1,200 nmiles south-southeast of Tokyo Japan with winds 125 kts. Sinlaku took a more northerly track on Wed (4/15) with winds fading to 100 kts later in the day and then turned north-northeast Thursday AM (4/17) with winds fading from 90 kts early and seas supposedly 45 ft at 19.5N 146E aimed north-northeast. By Sat AM (4/19) Sinlaku is to be turning fully northeast and 960 nmiles east-southeast of Tokyo with winds 65 kts (minimal typhoon status ) and seas 41 ft at 24.5N 148.5E aimed east. By Sun PM (4/19) Sinlaku is to be tracking nearly due east and fading with winds 55 kts over a small area and seas fading from 34 ft at 28.75N 160E aimed east and fading from there. But then, amazingly, Sinlaku is to turn extratropical and reorganize on the dateline Tues AM (4/21) with west winds 50 kts over a small area with seas building from 37 ft at 36N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening the extratropical gale is to lift northeast with west winds 35 kts and seas fading from 33 ft at 37.75N 175.75W aimed east. On Wed AM (4/22) the gale is to lift northeast winds west winds 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft at 42N 172W aimed east-northeast. The gael is to be gone after that.

It's amazingly early in the season to have a storm form much less recurve east and turn extratropical. Something to monitor. Perhaps this is a signal of what is to come.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Fri AM (4/18) a gradient fades along the California coast with northwest winds 20 kts for all of North CA and 20 kts off the Central CA coast early. In the afternoon northwest winds to fade from 15+ kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA. No precip forecast.
Sat AM (4/19) northwest winds to be fading from 15 kts for North and Central CA. In the afternoon northwest winds to be 5 for North and Central CA with low pressure approaching from off the Pacific Northwest. No precip forecast.
Sun AM (4/20) a front from the previous days low is to be approaching Cape Mendocino with south winds 5-10 kts there and south 5 kts down to Pt Arena and northwest 5 kts for Central CA early. In the afternoon the front impacts Cape Mendocino with south winds 10-15 kts for all of North CA and south winds 5 kts down to Monterey bay and light south of there. No precip forecast.
Mon AM (4/21) the low is to be off San Francisco with the associated front is to be just off San Francisco up to North CA early with south winds 15 kts from Monterey Bay northwards to Cape Mendocino and south winds 10 kts over the rest of Central CA. In the afternoon the front starts dissolving over North and Central CA with south winds 15 kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain is to be in a front lingering just off the North CA coast maybe just tickling the coast there in the afternoon building east some in the evening.
Tues AM (4/22) the low is to hold off the coast off Morro Bay with the front stalled over the CA coast with south winds 10 kts for all of North and Central CA. In the afternoon the low is to finally track east with south winds 15 kts for Central CA and east winds 10-15 kts for all of North CA. Rain for North and Central CA in the afternoon initially confined to the coast but reaching the Central Valley late afternoon and covering the whole state into the evening north of LA County.
Wed AM (4/23) the low is to be moving onshore over San Francisco with southwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA and northeast winds 10 kts for North CA. In the afternoon the front is gone with high pressure building in behind with northwest winds 10+ kts for all of North and Central CA. Rain for the while state early with some for the Sierra continuing through the evening.
Thurs AM (4/24) high pressure is to be in control with northwest winds 20 kts for North and Central CA early. In the afternoon northwest winds build to 30 kts for North CA and 25 kts for Central CA. Rain gone except for Southern CA and that fading through the day. Snow dissipating for the Southern Sierra early.

Sierra Snow Forecast: (focused on Olympic Valley): Freeze level rising Fri (4/17) around 10,000 ft holding into Mon (4/20). Freeze level falling steadily Tues (4/21) to 6,800 ft and and down to 4,000 ft late on Wed (4/22), then rising fast on Thurs (4/23) to 10,500 ft later and holding beyond. Snow accumulation for Olympic Valley: 9 inches mostly Tues-Wed (4/22). Mammoth: 14 inches on Tues-Wed (4/22).

Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Overview
Surface Analysis
On Thurs (4/16) swell from a gale previously in the deep Southeast Pacific was propagating northeast (see SE Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast in the Tasman Sea Thurs PM (4/16) producing 35 kts south winds with seas building. On Fri AM (4/17) south winds to be 40 kts aimed well north right up the Tasman Sea with seas to 25-26 ft at 48.5S 155.25E aimed northeast. In the evening south winds to fade from 35 kts still aimed well north with seas 27 ft @ 46S 154.5E aimed northeast. The gale is to be fading Sat AM (4/18) with south winds 35 kts aimed well north and seas 25 ft at 42S 158E aimed northeast. The gale is to continue tracking slowly north in the evening with south winds fading from 30+ kts positioned well west of the North Island of New Zealand and seas 23 ft at 39S 159E aimed north. On Sun AM the gale is to be stationary with south winds 30 kts and seas fading from 22 ft at 35S 161E aimed north. The gale to fade away after that. Something to monitor relative to Fiji and maybe Hawaii.

SE Pacific Gale
On Mon PM (4/13) a gale started developing over the Southeast Pacific with southwest winds 40-45 kts over a small area and seas building from 27 ft at 62S 134W aimed northeast. On Tues AM (4/14) southwest winds were 40 kts over a tiny area with seas 29 ft at 56.5S 127W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch raced northeast and east of the Southern CA swell window while fading from 30-35 kts and seas crashing from 25 ft at 52S 120W and barely in the CA swell window. Small swell is propagating northeast.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/22) building to 1.4 ft @ 17 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/23) to 1.6 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (4/24) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (4/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 185 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Wed (4/22) building to 1.2 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell building on Thurs (4/23) to 1.5 ft @ 16 secs later (2.0-2.5 ft). Swell fading Fri (4/24) from 1.7 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.5 ft). Dribbles on Sat (4/25) fading from 1.5 ft @ 13 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 180 degrees

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

Beyond 72 hours a gale was previously forecast developing in the deep Central South Pacific on Wed PM (4/22) with southwest wind building from 40 kts over a solid area aimed northeast and seas building. On Thurs AM (4/23) 40 kts southwest winds to increase in coverage aimed well northeast with seas building from 31 ft at 57.75S 160.25W. The gale was to lift northeast from there but it has fading from the charts as of 12Z Thurs (4/16). Will be interesting to see if it reappears. Something to monitor.

Pressure Pattern has Switched over the KWGA
Large Kelvin Wave #3 Pushing East
In Nov '25 westerly anomalies associated with Active Phase of the MJO #1 took root producing a Kelvin Wave pushing warn subsurface waters east. In early January strong Active MJO #2 started producing a second WWB in the far West Pacific producing Kelvin Wave #3 that impacted Ecuador in March. And in late Feb Active Phase #3 started developing and is forecast to hold for months with low pressure building over the dateline and high pressure over the Maritime Continent. The first Kelvin Wave erupted over the Galapagos early Feb 2026. A full return to ENSO neutral is setting up over the equatorial Pacific and possibly much more beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Longterm Swell Forecast Overview (updated 3/29/26): In 2022 La Nina evolved with easterly anomalies over the equatorial Pacific and cooler water at the surface off Ecuador. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Active Phases of the MJO produced several Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) and Kelvin Waves pushing east resulting in significant oceanic warming over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere by late July, and that spelled the demise of that event. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption (1/15/2022) muted El Ninos impact. The fading of this El Nino only resulted in the buildup of more latent heat energy in the ocean. By Jan 2024 the first signs of the normal reaction to El Nino (failed or not) resulted, with La Nina emerging, but never developed more than Modoki status through Fall 2025. And then in Dec 2025, an Active Phase of the MJO developed with westerly anomalies producing a small Kelvin wave, followed by a slightly stronger one in Feb 2026. And then on March 8, westerly anomalies started building in earnest in the far West Pacific, building to strong status in late March suggesting something more was occurring. The buildup of latent heat energy in the planets ocean seems to ensure it will not be denied.

Rationale: A Modoki La Nina developed in the Fall/Winter of 2024-25. It faded in Summer of 2025 then started turning toward La Nina again in Aug 2025. Considering it takes 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean was just starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly La Nina in late Aug, some form of weak La Nina built into the jetstream/atmosphere in late Fall (Dec 2025). But at the surface in the West Pacific a series of 3 Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) occurred (Dec 26, Feb and then March 2026). Note that the PDO was still be in the cool phase in Fall/Winter 2025-26 but was showing signs of turning neutral as of the time of this writing (3/29/26). The two big unknowns are what will the PDO do (will it overwhelm whatever push there is towards and ENSO) and how much if any of Hunga Tonga volcanoes effect linger in the atmosphere?

Regardless, clear signs of the development of El Nino are present in the West Pacific and are starting to affect surface water temps along Ecuador driven by 2 Kelvin Waves (discussed above). And as third WWB started building as of March 8th with east anomalies starting to develop over the Maritime Continent (all classic signal of a developing El Nino) and a change in the Walker Circulation. All the model suggest some form of El Nino developing ranging from weak to strong if not super El NIno status in late Fall 2026. The million dollar question, is not will it evolve, but rather how strong will it be? Will it stall like the 2023 El Nino, of will it be given the chance to fully express what is likely the significant latent heat signature present in the ocean. El Nino is the planets way to bleed off that excess heat, by discharging it to the atmosphere. We are currently in the Spring Unpredictability Barrier (late March 2026). And though all the models are screaming 'El Nino', there is a significant uncertainty as to the strength of whatever El NIno event is to eventually manifest. It all depends upon whether the oceanic change become coupled wit the atmosphere. And that would be expressed through clear signals of a change in the Walker Circulation.

Assuming a moderate to strong event develops, and assuming the current strong WWB underway in the West Pacific continues somewhat as forecast (3 months of continued west anomalies with 6-8 weeks of very strong anomalies through the Spring of 2026), it seems some signature of this event will make it into the atmosphere starting mid-June 2026 (3 months post the start of the 3rd WWB). That should feed energy into the southern hemi jetstream improving the odds for gale development in the South Pacific to perhaps normal status and erasing the previous bias towards La Nina (and therefore less gale development). So prior to mid-June, a suppressed storm track is expected, but that should build after mid-June netting a "normal" summer swell pattern relative to Hawaii and CA. But, there are alot of caveats and 'buts' in the forecast, so confidence is not high,. And in fact, the effects of the WWB and Kelvin Waves might not develop till Aug 2026. It's just way too early to know with any certainty.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 135E to 170W - The main area for generating Kelvin Waves)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (4/15) 5 day average winds were modest east over the East Equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and moderate east over the dateline and neutral over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and neutral over the dateline and weak west over KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (4/16) Today moderate west anomalies were filling the KWGA and have been moderate to strong west since 3/26 and moderate west since 3/8. The forecast has west anomalies rapidly fading to modest strength by 4/19 and holding from 150E and points east of there through the end of the model run on 5/2 possibly starting to rebuild some on the dateline 4/27 and beyond. Weak east anomalies are to be over the far West KWGA from 150E and points west of there from 4/20 and beyond. This is not what the models were selling even a week ago when they indicated a long lasting Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) that would last for months.

MJO/WWB/Wind Projections:
OLR Models: (4/15) Currently a modest Active MJO (wet air) was filling the KWGA. The statistic model depicts a modest Active MJO on day 5 and gone on days 10 and 15 with the Inactive Phase (dry air) pushing in from the the Maritime Continent filling the KWGA. The Dynamic model indicates the same thing. The Dynamic and Statistic models are mostly in agreement.
Phase Diagrams - 2 week forecast (CA and GEFS): (4/16) - Today the models depict the Active Phase was modest over the East Pacific if not the West Atlantic. The statistic model has it moving east to the Central Indian Ocean 2 weeks out and split between very weak and modest. The dynamic model indicates the Active Phase over the Central Indian Ocean at weak strength 2 weeks out.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical model and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (9/1) This model is stuck or corrupt.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/15) Today the Active Phase was over the KWGA with 1 contour and west anomalies very strong. Strong west anomalies and 1 contours are to continue over the KWGA through 4/18 then racing east and east of the KWGA on 4/24 while holding intact tracking over Ecuador starting 4/20. The Inactive Phase with 2 contours is to race east from the West KWGA 4/20 tracking to the dateline 4/26 and filling the KWGA through 5/6 with moderate east anomalies filling the western KWGA. West anomalies and a possible Active MJO are to start building over the KWGA 5/6 holding through the end of the model run on 5/13. Looking at what has already happened and what is forecast, moderate or stronger west anomalies are to last till 4/26. They started on 2/20, or 8 weeks with 4.5 weeks of that at strong status (3/16-4/18). This is much shorter than originally forecast but still fairly impressive given the time of year.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (4/15) - using the 5th ensemble member - the mean of the 4 individual members which are all from the 00Z run - 1 run per day):
Today west anomalies at strong status were holding over and mostly filling a tiny portion of the KWGA with the Inactive Phase in control and holding through 4/17. A neutral MJO follows through 4/26 with modest west anomalies holding. The Inactive Phase is to develop over the KWGA 4/26 holding through 6/9 with 3 contours but with modest to moderate west anomalies holding filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to follow 6/1through the end of the model run on 7/13 with moderate west anomalies in control. Looking at what has already happened and what is forecast, modest to moderate (and sometimes stronger) west anomalies set up in the KWGA 3/24 and are to hold through the end of the model run. This is nowhere are long as forecast even 2 weeks ago for strong anomalies, but on track for moderate west anomalies. This model is biased very warm. The low pass filter indicates the leading edge of the low pressure bias was racing east over the West Pacific from 170E (150E a week ago) and is to reach 125W at the end of the model run with a second contour setting up on the dateline 5/15 and a third on 6/20. A fourth has disappeared again. The trailing/west edge of the high pressure bias is easing east at 170W today with 1 contour (a second contour dissipated on 3/22) and is retreating fast to the east and gone from the KWGA today and reaching 120W at the end of the model run. East anomalies started building over the Maritime Continent 3/8 and are to continue filling it through the end of the model run. A wholesale pressure pattern change appears to be well underway.

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO data: Today (4/16) in the far West Pacific the 30 degree isotherm was steady at 172E. The 29 degree isotherm was moving east from 176W to 174W. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 164W to 155W. The 24 deg isotherm was 125m deep at 140W and thickening at 130W falling down at 75m and pushing into Ecuador 27m down with 25-28 deg temps building on top. Anomaly wise this strong change is reflected down at the thermocline (-150m) with a Kelvin Wave and +2 degs erupting to the surface in the East Pacific (past its peak) and +4-+5 deg anomalies in the West (building) with the leading edge at 125W. There was a little break between the 2 with +1 anomalies at 120W. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 4/8 reflects this strong change too with a huge Kelvin Wave at +4-5 degs anomalies at the thermocline (-150m) in the west between 110W-160E and +2 deg anomalies erupting to the surface in the East from 95W and points east of there but past its peak. Warm anomalies continued filling the entire subsurface Pacific now. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (4/8) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were positive over the entire equatorial Pacific pushing into Ecuador and radiating north and south along the South American Coast. Kelvin Waves #1 & #2 have hit with +5 cms from 95W into Ecuador and up to +10 cms moving north along the coast. Kelvin Wave #3 was filling most of the Equatorial Pacific from 110W to 155E with heights +5-+10 cms.
Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (4/8) indicates warm anomalies were filling the equatorial Pacific impacting Ecuador (80W). In December '25 warm anomalies and Kelvin Wave #1 started pushing east impacting Ecuador late Feb. Kelvin Wave #2 pushed east in Jan and is still impacting Ecuador now but past its prime. And Kelvin Wave #3 is in-flight pushing east reaching 112W driven by westerly anomalies occurring now. A weak sign of discharge was indicated in the west in late March and again mid-April.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (4/15) In the latest image warm anomalies were filling the equator west to east with a tiny area of cooler anomalies south of the equator near 140W and being shunted to the south. La Nina is gone. The atmosphere will be 3 months behind (roughly mid-June). Warming waters were rebuilding markedly along Ecuador out to the Galapagos and 100W while pushing north and south along the coast of Central America and Peru. A previous thin stream of cool waters was gone on the equator. Alternate SST Anomaly (Global Mean): Cooler waters were present in a thin stream from 110W to 150W and quickly collapsing. Temps were warming from along the coast of Ecuador and Peru and west to the Galapagos The warming trend is showing a bit more distinctly on this chart than previously.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (4/15): Temps were warming markedly from Ecuador over the Galapagos west to the dateline. A major change appears to be setting up. Perhaps the last gasp of La Ninas are now gone.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/16) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were holding at +1.295 and have been the steady the last 5 days, and were steady near +1.0 previously since 2/19. Previously temps had been on a generally upward trend since 2/2. Previously temps were +0.010 (1/28) up from -0.320 (1/22). Temps had been rising 1/1-1/16, previously down at -1.596 12/30, up at -0.820 (12/20), that up from -1.453 4 days previous (12/19) but had been falling steadily since 12/2.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (4/16) Today's temps were rising to +0.266, rising the last 3 days after reaching dead neutral (0.0) on 4/2, the first time in a very long time. Temps have been rising steadily since 1/11, at -1.267 12/27 falling from -0.922 (12/7), rising since 11/26.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were rising at +0.2 (3/25, 4/1 & 4/8). Previously temps were 0.0 degs (March 11 & 18), -0.1 (3 weeks 2/18-3/4), -0.2 (2/11), 0-0.5 (2/4), -0.4 (1/28), -0.3 (1/21), -0.7 (1/14), -0.8 (1/7), -0.5 (12/31), -0.7 (12/24), -0.8 (12/17), -0.7 (12/10), -0.5 (12/3),. -0.6 (11/26), -0.8 (11/19), -0.7 (11/5 & 11/12), -0.6 (10/15, 10/22 & 10/29), -0.3 (10/8), -0.5 (9/24 & 10/1), -0.4 (9/17), -0.5 (9/10), -0.3 (9/3), -0.4 (8/20 & 8/27).
Monthly Data is +0.05 March, -0.12 Feb, -0.41 Jan, -0.57 Dec, -0.64 Nov, -0.50 Oct, -0.45 Sept, -0.32 Aug, -0.10 July -0.01 June, -0.02 May, -0.02 April, +0.11 March, -0.28 Feb, -0.56 Jan.
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -0,72 (JFM), -0.88 (DJF), -0.97 (NDJ), -0.93 OND, -0.87 SON, -0.77 (ASO). -0.63 (JAS), -0.47 (JJA), -0.43 (MJJ), -0.49 AMJ, -0.52 (MAM), -0.67 (FMA), -0.89 (JFM), -1.12 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND).

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.025 in March then faded only to -0.1 in April (far less that the -0.40 forecast) then steady at 0.00 in May-June. Temps started falling in mid-July down to -0.3 in Aug, -0.45 Sept and -0.40 in Oct. Sea Surface Temp Anomalies for Nov did NOT fall nearly as hard as previously forecast (forecast was -0.95 but actual was -0.7) and then did not fall in Dec (forecast at -7.0 actual was -0.6). but Dec was forecast at -0.6 and actuals were -0.75. Late Jan temps were -0.45 and -0.2 in Feb and 0.0 in March.
Forecast (4/16) - Temps are forecast rising dramatically from here forward, to +2.70 Nov, and +2.20 at the end of the model run on Jan 2027. At the other end of the spectrum the PDF & Spread Corrected forecast suggests the same trend but with temps rising to +1.60 in Nov and +1.05 in Jan. It looks like we are moving into some flavor or El Nino, but split anywhere from moderate to super status.
IRI Consensus Plume: The March 19, 2025 Plume (all models) depicts temps are rising fast at +0.207 today (MAM). Temps to rise to +0.477 in AMJ and +0.73 in MJJ and 1.085 NDJ. The Dynamic model suggest temps rising to +1.528 SON then falling to +1.453 at the end of the model run. The Statistic model suggests temps rising to +0.864 at the end of the model run NDJ. In other words, we are at ENSO neutral and moving to maybe weak El Nino in the Fall per the statistic models and strong per the dynamic models.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index is a lagging indicator the 30 day average lagging 15 days and the 90 day average lagging 45 days):
Today (4/15) the Daily Index was +1.51 but had been negative 21 days previous, otherwise more or less neutral since 3/15.
The 30 day average was steady at -8.45 and +12.85 a month ago.
The 90 day average was falling some at +4.94 and in weak La Nina territory. It was +10.32 a month ago.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (Negative is bad, Positive is good)
Past Recent History: The PDO theoretically turned from a warm (positive) trend in Spring of '98 and has cool (negative) mostly since then other than turning weakly positive March 2014-June 2017. It went hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.56 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.80 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.13 and -2.03 in Dec 2024 and -1.29 in Jan 2025.
Current Situation: The index was steady in March 2026 at -1.44 and was Feb -1.01, Jan -1.26, Dec 2025 -0.96, -1.51 Nov, -2.37 Oct, -2.31 Sept (and in line with average readings since Nov 2021), -3.23 Aug after falling hard in July at -4.21 (the lowest ever), -2.64 June, -1.66 May, -1.15 April, -1.12 March and -1.45 Feb 2025. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any meaningful duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
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