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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Thursday, February 6, 2020 5:11 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.8 - California & 2.5 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 2/3 thru Sun 2/9

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell Hitting HI
Stronger swell Behind

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Thursday, February 6, 2020 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai)/Barbers Point (Buoy 238) : Seas were 1.7 ft @ 7.4 secs with swell 1.1 ft @ 7.7 secs from 164 degrees.
  • Buoy 106 (Waimea): Seas were 11.7 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 6.3 ft @ 13.5 secs from 314 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 3.1 ft @ 7.7 secs with swell 2.5 ft @ 6.6 secs from 261 degrees. Wind at the buoy was north at 10-13 kts. Water temperature 58.8 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 5.2 ft @ 8.7 secs from 310 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.8 ft @ 6.3 secs from 265 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.6 ft @ 17.4 secs from 195 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.0 ft @ 10.1 secs from 271 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 9.7 ft @ 8.3 secs with swell 7.0 ft @ 8.0 secs from 319 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 12-16 kts. Water temp 51.1 degs (013), 53.1degs (012) and 54.3 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Thursday (2/6) in North and Central CA local northwest windswell was producing waves at head high and fairly clean but soft and mushed but a little bit lined up. Protected breaks were chest high or so and very soft and lined up with clean conditions. At Santa Cruz surf was flat and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean with rare sets in the thigh high range. In North Orange Co surf was flat to waist high on rare peaks and and soft and clean. South Orange Country's best summertime breaks were flat to thigh high and clean. North San Diego was flat and clean. Hawaii's North Shore was 3-5 ft overhead on the sets but a warbled, rainy, onshore windy mess. The South Shore was thigh high on the biggest sets and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves chest high and modestly chopped early from building north wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Thursday (2/6) in California only modest local north windswell was hitting primarily north of Pt Conception produced by high pressure anchored in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska. In Hawaii swell was hitting from a broad gale that developed just off the Kuril's Sat-Mon (2/3) producing 30 ft seas in it's west quadrant aimed southeast at Hawaii but that swell was marred by a cutoff low anchored north of the Island producing a steady northerly flow and forecast to hold for the next week. Another compact gale followed Tues-Wed (2/5) tracking east from the Kuril Islands to the dateline producing up to 41 ft seas then continuing east while fading over the Northwestern Gulf on Thurs (2/6). Swell is possible for Hi and CA wind permitting. And yet a third system is to develop off the Kuril Islands pushing east Thurs-Fri (2/8) producing up to 38 ft seas aimed east then fading over the North Dateline region on Sat (2/8). Another broad but diffuse gale is to follow behind limited to the far Northwest Pacific and lifting northeast Sun-Thurs (2/13) with no meaningful swell production potential indicated. So some long distance swell is possible for a bit but the local winds situation in both Hawaii and CA to be problematic. A split jetstream pattern is in control hindering gale and swell production east of the dateline and that pattern is forecast to hold for the foreseeable future until a sufficiently strong Active Phase of the MJO develops. For now the Inactive Phase rules supreme.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Thursday (2/6) the jetstream was consolidated pushing east off Japan on the 34N latitude line with winds 190-200 kts in one pocket pushing to the dateline supporting a trough centered over the Kuril Islands offering some support for gale development there. East of there the jet split starting at 173W with the northern branch pushing northeast up into the Northern Gulf of Alaska and then into British Columbia offering nothing with the southern branch weak falling over Hawaii then tracking east over Southern Baja. Over the next 72 hours the dateline trough is to push east to the dateline on Sat (2/8) then fade out quickly while a new trough starts building again over the Kuril Islands Sun (2/9) offering building support for gale development. The split point is to move east some to 165W but of not significance. A split flow to continue east of there offering nothing. Beyond 72 hours the trough in the west is to ease east eventually making it to the Central West Pacific on Wed (2/12) with core winds fading from 190 kts to 150-160 kts and losing coverage resulting in less support for gale development and even weaker but still present on Thurs (2/13) centered on the dateline offering only minimal support for gale development. At that time the split point is to be at 155W (north of Hawaii) with the split flow holding over the Gulf of Alaska and the northern branch starting to push down the US West Coast but weak and offering no sense of supporting gael development.


Surface Analysis
On Thursday (2/4) swell was hitting Hawaii from a gale previously over the Northwestern Pacific (See Northwestern Pacific Gale below). No swell from the east side of that system arrived in CA. A new storm was developing in the far Western North Pacific offering swell production potential (see Dateline Storm below).

Over the next 72 hours yet another small storm is developing just off the Kuril Islands on Thurs AM (2/6) with 45 kt west winds over a small area and 35 ft seas at 45N 163.5E aimed east. In the evening this system is to stall with 50+ kt northwest winds holding over a modest sized area and 36 ft seas at 45N 164E aimed east. More of the same is forecast on Fri AM (2/7) with 50 kt northwest winds and the gale holding position with 36 ft seas aimed east at 45N 164E. The gale is to ease east in the evening with 45 kt west winds and 38 ft seas at 44.5N 168E aimed east. The gale is to start fading Sat AM (2/8) with fetch fading from 40 kts and lifting northeast with seas fading from 33 ft at 45N 174E aimed east. A rapid fade is forecast in the evening with fetch barely 35 kts on the dateline and seas fading from 31 ft at 44.5N 177E aimed east. Something to monitor.

Hawaii: Possible swell arrival on Mon (2/10) building to 6.4 ft @ 17 secs later (10 ft). Swell steady on Tues (2/11) at 8.0 ft @ 16 secs early (12.5 ft) but with copious northwest windswell intermixed. Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Possible swell arrival starting Tues (2/11) building to 3.2 ft @ 17 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 302-303 degrees

 

Northwest Pacific Gale
A broad gale developed off the Kuril Islands and Kamchatka on Sat AM (2/1) with up to 50 kt south winds in it's east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 41N 176W aimed north at the East Aleutians possibly sending sideband energy east and 40 kt west winds approaching the dateline producing 26 ft seas at 41N 175E aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt south winds continued in the east quadrant producing 31 ft seas at 42N 169W aimed north but with sideband swell potential and 35 kt west winds in it's west quadrant producing 30 ft seas at 46N 178E aimed somewhat at Hawaii. On Sun AM (2/2) more of the same was occurring with 30 ft seas in the east at 44N 163W aimed north and 33 ft ft seas at 50N 168E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening 40 kt north winds continued aimed south with 33 ft seas fading at 48N 172E aimed south perhaps targeting Hawaii. The gale tracked east and faded Mon AM (2/3) with 30-35 kt north winds and 28 ft seas fading at 45.5N 174E aimed south at Hawaii. In the evening the gale faded with 30 kt north winds and seas fading from 25 ft at 44N 178W aimed south at Hawaii.

Hawaii: Swell to be building some on Thurs (2/6) to 5.2 ft @ 13-14 secs (6.5 ft) early but with local north winds and windswell taking over as the day continues. Swell Direction: 312 degrees

North CA: Swell is supposed to be fading on Thurs AM (2/6) from 4.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft) but none of that swell was apparent on the buoys. Perhaps a secondary pulse to arrive on Fri AM (2/7) building to 4.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (6.0 ft). Dribbles fading on Sat (2/8) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 295-297 degrees

 

Dateline Storm
A stronger gale developed off North Japan on Tues AM (2/4) producing a tiny area of 50 kt west winds and seas building from 31 ft at 44N 159E aimed east. In the evening 45-50 kt west winds were tracking east fast with 39 ft seas at 45N 166.5E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/5) the storm was approaching the dateline with 45 kt west winds and 41 ft seas at 45N 173.5E aimed east over a small area. In the evening the gale was pushing over the dateline with 40 kt west winds and seas 38 ft at 45.5N 178.5W aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/6) the gale was fading in the Northwestern Gulf with 35 kt west winds and seas 31 ft at 46N 170W aimed east. The gale to dissipate from there. Swell is in the water tracking east.

Hawaii: Swell arrival late on Fri (2/7) with swell to 3.4 ft @ 20 secs (7.0 ft). Swell steady on Sat (2/8) at 5.9 ft @ 16 secs (9.0 ft) with windswell intermixed. Swell fading on Sun (2/9) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs (5.0 ft) with windswell again in the mix. Swell Direction: 322 degrees

North CA: Swell arrival on Sun (2/9) with period 18 secs building to 4.2 ft @ 17 secs (7.0 ft) and buried in local north windswell. swell continues on Mon (2/10) building to 5.3 ft @ 14-15 secs (7.5 ft). Swell Direction: 302 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical systems of interest are being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast
On Thursday (2/6) light north winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA but 15-20 kts for Pt Arena northward. Fri (2/7) more of the same is forecast with light north winds 5 kts all day for North and Central CA but with north winds 20 kt for Pt Arena northward and maybe to 15 kts for the Outer Monterey Bay area later. Sat (2/8) high pressure and north winds return at 20-25 kts for all of North CA early and 15 kts from Pt Reyes southward to Monterey bay and 10 kts south of Pt Conception early pushing 35 kts for SF up to Pt Arena later and 20 kts for Central CA later. Sun (2/9) north winds are forecast at 30-35 kts for North CA and 15-20 kts for Central CA fading to 20-25 kts late afternoon for North CA and turning more to the northeast and 15-20 kts for Central CA. Perhaps a backdoor front is to produce some very light snow for the Central Sierra starting late afternoon moving to Southern CA overnight but only producing light rain there. Mon AM (2/10) north to northeast winds to be 20-25 kts for all of North CA but 5 kts from the northeast south of Monterey Bay to Pt Conception. Northeast winds 10-15 kts for Southern CA early turning northwest 15 kts later. Tues AM (2/11) north winds to be 25-30 kts for Cape Mendocino early but light north 5 kts from Pt Arena southward and holding all day and fading for Cape mendocino later. Wednesday (2/12) light north winds 5 kts or less all day expect north at 25 kts for North Cape Mendocino. No change on Thurs (2/13). Expect water temps to plummet due to upwelling. It sure seems like we're moving into a La Nina influenced Spring pattern.

Total snow accumulation for the week for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 0, 0, 0 and 0 inches respectively.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell producing fetch is occurring.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another broad but fragmented gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline Sun AM (2/9) with 45 kt south winds lifting northeast continuing into Sunday evening targeting only the Aleutians. A secondary core is to develop just east of the Kurils Mon AM (2/10) producing a limited area of 40 kt west winds fading to 35 kts in the evening over the same area with 28-30 ft seas over a small area at 43N 160ishE. The gale is to fade while lifting north from there. No swell is expected.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch of interest is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Active MJO Forecast to Build

The Madden Julian Oscillation is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for MJO activity (which directly relate to the potential for swell production).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water hold in a pool off Peru and has not changed as of late Jan 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2019/2020 = 5.0/4.0 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 is fading out, but not yet completely gone, especially in the atmosphere. Likewise it looks like a La Nina ocean temperature pattern is developing in the equatorial East Pacific, with cooler than normal waters tracking west on the equator. We assumed El Nino like momentum will hold for a while in the atmosphere will take a while to sense that the ocean temperature pattern has changed. But once it does, a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern will start to develop. that transition is expected in the late Nov-early Dec timeframe. Even so, moderation from the PDO might prevent La Nina from fully developing. Given all that, there is decent probability for a normal start to the Fall surf season (in the Northern Hemisphere) meaning a normal amount of number of storm days and storm intensity, resulting in a normal levels of swell, with normal duration and normal period. But by mid-Dec 2019, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should start fading and as a result, swell production should fade slightly as well. This pattern is expected to hold through April 2020.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/5) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific fading some over the North Dateline and North KWGA but moderately from the west over the South Dateline and into the south KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific fading to neutral over the Central Pacific then moderate plus westerly over the dateline and KWGA focused in the southern portion.
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/6) west anomalies were weak in the KWGA. The forecast calls for a mix if east and west anomalies holding in the KWGA through 2/9 then modest west anomalies taking over through the end of the model run on 2/13 focused on the dateline.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/5) A weak Active MJO signal was over the West KWGA barely reaching to the dateline. The statistic model indicates the Active MJO is forecast holding while slowly easing east still holding in the Central KWGA on day 10 of the model run through day 15. The dynamic model indicates the Active MJO is to be building over the Maritime Continent with it's leading edge in the Central KWGA at day 5 then pushing east and filling the KWGA at day 10 then continuing east and building with a strong Active MJO taking over the KWGA at day 15.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/6) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak mid-way between the Western Pacific and Maritime Continent today and is to hold position and strength over the next 15 days and very weak. The GEFS model suggests the same thing initially, but with the Active Phase quickly building to moderate if not weak strong strength moving to the West Pacific at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/4) This model depicts a weak Active Phase was over the Dateline region today. It is to push east and move over Central America on 2/28 while the Inactive Phase develops in the KWGA on 2/14 pushing east while slowly losing strength pushing into Central America on 3/13. A modest Active MJO signal is to start building in the West Pacific/KWGA 3/5 pushing to the Central Pacific at the end of the model run on 3/15.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/4) This model depicts no significant MJO signal but with moderate west anomalies in control. The forecast indicates no change in the MJO but with modest west anomalies building to moderate strength on 2/16 holding for a few days and filling the KWGA then slowly fading but still modest in strength through the end of the model run on 3/3.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/6 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member) This model depicts the Active Phase was all but gone in the KWGA with weak west anomalies still filling the KWGA with the Inactive Phase starting to develop in the Eastern KWGA. The forecast has a weak Inactive Phase trying to push into the the KWGA 2/9-2/13 but with weak west anomalies still holding in the Central KWGA. A modest Active MJO Phase is to set up 2/15 with moderate to strong west anomalies building into the KWGA holding till 3/10. Beyond that a moderate Inactive Phase is forecast 3/2-4/2 with modest east anomalies filling the KWGA. The Active Phase is to develop 3/27 holding through the end of the model run on 5/5 with moderate plus west anomalies in control in the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a low pressure bias with 2 contour lines in control of the KWGA centered on the dateline reaching east to the California coast. The second contour line is to hold till 4/12 with a 3rd contour line in a pocket 3/17 then dissipating. A high pressure bias built in the Indian Ocean and is to hold for the foreseeable future. East anomalies set up in the Indian Ocean starting 10/22/19 and are to hold till 3/17 then fading with a advent of the Active Phase then and not returning with any vigor beyond.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/6) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 deg isotherm was steady at 176E with the 29 deg isotherm steady at 172W. The 28 deg isotherm line was a brick wall aligned and steady at 163W today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing into Ecuador. Anomaly wise, Kelvin Wave #6 was under the dateline at +4 degs tracking from the Maritime Continent moving east with it's leading edge at 138W. Lesser warm water was pushing into Ecuador. Warm water was filling the entire equatorial subsurface Pacific from 110 meters upwards. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/2 indicates warm water had formed a Kelvin Wave extending from 135E peaking under the Dateline and holding east to 140W at +3 degrees with lesser warm water pushing east from there (impacting Ecuador). The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/2) A broad pocket of +5 cms anomalies is filling the equatorial Pacific between 170E pushing into Ecuador.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/5) The latest images (1.2 3.4) indicate warm anomalies were just off the coast of Chile up into Peru but with solid cool anomalies nearshore there, and building warm anomalies along Ecuador then building again over Central America then tracking west on the equator to the Galapagos out to 100W. A broad pocket of cool anomalies still was south of the equator and well off Peru filling the area from 5S south down to 20S reaching west to 115W and east to 82W. Weak warm anomalies were on and north of the equator building while tracking west to the dateline.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/5): Today a broad area of moderate warming continued filling the area from Chile and Peru west out to 115W rebuilding in coverage. Warming also extended on the equator from Ecuador out to 120W and stronger today than days past. The short term trend is towards warming in the Southeast Pacific.
Hi-res Overview: (2/5) A steady pocket of cool anomalies is holding south of the equator starting at 5S and just off Peru reaching west out to 125W and steady. Warm anomalies were holding along Chile and Peru stronger up to Ecuador and Central America up to Mexico. Otherwise gentle warming was over the equator from Ecuador out to 120W and stronger out towards the dateline. Warmer than normal water was north of the equator reaching north to 20N west to the dateline. Water temps appear to be stable mildly favoring El Nino.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/6) Today's temps were noodling around at +0.090 but previously much lower down at -0.900 on 12/12. Temps peaked prior at +1.55 degrees on 12/2 after a long runup from negative anomalies in October. It now appears we are in a falling trend.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/6) Temps were fading slowly today at +0.286. Temps peaked on 11/14 at +0.509 degs, fell some to -0.018 on 11/28, and are now trying to rebuild. The trend has been steadily generally upwards since Sept when they bottomed out at -0.6 degs (9/14).

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/4) Actual's indicate a cooling trend set up late summer with temps -0.2 degs in mid-Sept then the trend started rising to +0.25 degs in early Oct holding to Dec 1 and then rising to +0.75 degs Jan 1 and to +0.9 degs on Feb 1. From there the forecast depicts a steady fall to 0.0 in mid-May then diving negative appearing to be moving to La Nina down at -1.40 in early Oct and stabilizing there. According to this model a neutral sea surface temperature pattern biased slightly warm is forecast for the Winter and Spring, then turning towards La Nina in the core of Summer.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 2020 Plume depicts temps are at +0.42 degs, and are to slow fade to neutral +0.00 in June 2020, then holding there till Sept 2020. See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad) (2/6): The daily index was positive today at 0.24. The 30 day average was weakly negative at -0.96. The 90 day average was rising slightly at -4.76, suggesting a neutral ENSO pattern was developing.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): Dec +0.46, Nov +1.03, Oct +0.27 Sept +1.11, August +0.60, July +0.75, June -0.32, May +1.10, April +0.30, March +1.0, Feb +1.29, Jan +0.193. This index has been steadily positive but still indicates mostly ENSO neutral conditions (not El Nino).

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (2/2):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lTTnUaHlBM&feature=youtu.be&hd=1
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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