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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Tuesday, February 9, 2021 4:14 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
2.2 - California & 2.6 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 2/8 thru Sun 2/14

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Small Swell Hitting HI
Stronger Storm Forecast

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Tuesday, February 9, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 238 (Barbers Point): Seas were 4.4 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.3 ft @ 16.0 secs from 305 degrees. Water temp 77.0 degs.
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 5.5 ft @ 16.7 secs with swell 2.2 ft @ 17.0 secs from 340 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 2.4 ft @ 13.7 secs with swell 1.8 ft @ 13.0 secs from 251 degrees. Wind at the buoy was south at 2-4 kts. Water temperature 57.4 degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 3.1 ft @ 9.4 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 1.6 ft @ 13.4 secs from 252 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 0.9 ft @ 14.4 secs from 235 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 1.9 ft @ 13.0 secs from 262 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 4.7 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 13.4 secs from 293 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was northwest at 6-8 kts. Water temp 52.3 (029), 52.9 degs (SF Bar) and 53.6 degs (042).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Tuesday (2/9) North and Central CA had waves at thigh to waist high and clean and lined up but weak. Protected breaks were flat and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was knee to thigh high on the biggest rare sets and clean. In Southern California/Ventura waves were flat and clean. Central Orange County was flat to knee high and clean and crumbling just off the beach. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat and clean. North San Diego had sets at thigh high and soft and clean. Hawaii's North Shore had sets in the head high plus range and pretty warbled from westerly wind. The South Shore was flat and clean. The East Shore was northeast windswell at knee to thigh high and chopped from north winds.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Tuesday (2/9) Hawaii was starting to see swell originating from a tiny gale that developed while tracking northeast off the Kuril Islands on Fri-Sat (2/6) producing 36 ft seas aimed east but not tracking east to even the dateline. No swell was hitting California but the swell currently hitting Hawaii is on it's way to the Golden State. Beyond a more interesting gale is forecast developing on the dateline easing into the far Western Gulf Tues-Thurs (2/11) producing up to 45 ft seas over a modest sized area aimed east. A far weaker system is to follow over the dateline and Western Gulf Fri-Sat (2/13) with up to 34 ft seas aimed east and lifting northeast. Some swell to result from both. After that nothing is indicated. Back to our La Nina pattern.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Tuesday (2/9) the jet was consolidated pushing off Southern Japan with winds building to 210 kts reaching to the dateline the weakly splitting there with most energy falling southeast tracking just south of Hawaii and bound for the equator. There was some support for gale development north of the jet in the west. A diffuse jetstream pattern was indicated east of the Hawaiian Islands. Over the next 72 hours a trough is to start building over the dateline on Wed (2/10) with winds in the jet fading to 170 kts offering improved support for gale development with the jet then running due east to the 170W before starting to split and fading east of there. There first trough is to fade in the far Western Gulf on Thurs (2/11) but a second trough is to develop in the still energetic jet west of the dateline and lifting northeast fast into early Sat (2/13) also offering support for gale development. The split point is to move east to 160W at that time with energy building in the northern branch of the jet ridging slightly and pushing over British Columbia. Beyond 72 hours the trough is to be fading in the Northwestern Gulf on Sat (2/13) with a new local trough developing just off the Pacific Northwest pushing inland over the US West Coast on Sun (2/14). At that time a weak but broad trough is forecast holding over the North Dateline region offering some weak support for gale development. But by Tues (2/16) the jet is to be losing definition in the east but with a still reasonable healthy flow off the US West Coast pushing inland over North and Central CA with the split point redeveloping in the west near 170E while winds build off Japan to 170 kts offering some hope for the future.

Surface Analysis
On Tuesday (2/9) swell was starting to hit Hawaii from a gale that developed off the Kuril Islands lifting northeast (See Small Kamchatka Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours starting Tues PM (2/9) a new semi interesting gale is to start building on the dateline producing 45-55 kt northwest winds over a small sized area with seas building from 33 ft over a tiny area at 42N 176E aimed east. The gale is to build to storm status Wed AM (2/10) with 50 kt west winds setting up just west of the dateline with 36 ft seas building at 45.5N 179.5E aimed east. Fetch is to be building in the evening to 55 kts just west of the dateline and increasing in coverage with seas building to 41 ft at 43N 177E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/11) fetch is to be fading from 45 kts on the dateline with seas fading from 44 ft at 42N 179E aimed east. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts over a broad area aimed east with seas fading from 37 ft at 41.5N 174W aimed east. The gale is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

 

Small Kamchatka Gale
On Thurs PM (2/4) a small gale developed off the Kuril Islands producing 40 kt west winds over a tiny area with seas building. On Fri AM (2/5) the storm tracked east with 50-55 kt west winds over a tiny area and seas 37 ft over a small area at 45N 164E aimed east. The gale lifted northeast with fetch fading in the evening from 45 kts with seas 35 ft at 46N 167.5E aimed east. On Sat AM (2/6) fetch was fading from 45 kts while the gale held stationary with seas fading from 32 ft at 47N 169E aimed east. The gale dissipated in the evening with seas from previous fetch fading from 29 ft at 48N 171E aimed east. Small swell possible for Hawaii and less for the mainland.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/9) building to 4.5 ft @ 14-15 secs later (6.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (2/10) from 4.0 ft @ 13-14 secs early (5.0-5.5 ft). Swell gone by sunset. Swell Direction: 315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on later on Wed (2/10) building to 2.0 ft @ 16-17 secs (3.0 ft). Swell peaking early Thurs (2/11) at 2.9 ft @ 15 secs (4.0 ft). Swell fading on Fri (2/12) from 3.2 ft @ 14 secs (4.0 ft). Swell Direction: 300 degrees

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Wed (2/10) light winds are forecast for North CA early and northwest winds 10-15 kts for Central CA south of Monterey Bay early and holding all day.
  • Thurs (2/11) a local low is forecast building off North CA with south winds 10-15 kts early for Pt Reyes northward and light winds south of there. South winds 10-15 kts are forecast late afternoon for all of North CA down to the Golden Gate in the afternoon with northwest winds 10 kts for Central CA. Rain developing in the afternoon for all of North CA pushing down to Monterey Bay at sunset and Big Sur overnight. Snow developing for the Sierra late after noon and continuing overnight.
  • Fri (2/12) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts for North CA early and 15-20 kts for Central CA solidifying at 15 kts from Pt Arena southward and pushing 25 kts over Pt Conception in the afternoon. Showers for North and Central CA early clearing through the day. Snow fading from solid status before sunrise to nothing mid- AM for the Sierra.
  • Saturday (2/13) northwest winds are forecast at 10 kts north of Pt Arena and 10-15 kts south of there to Pt Conception early and holding all day. Rain developing up north pushing south to Bodega Bay at sunset and then to Monterey Bay overnight. Moderate snow for the Sierra developing at sunset continuing overnight.
  • Sunday (2/14) northwest winds are forecast at 25-30 kts early for all of North, Central and South CA early holding all day. Rain and snow clearing out early.
  • Monday (2/15) west winds are forecast at 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino early with northwest winds 10 kts south of there building to 20 kts from Pt Reyes south to Pt Conception. Northwest winds are forecast at sunset for all of North CA and 10 kts for Central CA. Rain building south from Cape Mendocino early to Monterey bay in the afternoon and Morro Bay overnight. Modest snow for the Sierra starting late afternoon into the evening.
  • Tues (2/16) northwest winds are forecast at 20+ kts for all of North CA and most of Central CA early building to 25 kts solid in the afternoon. No rain forecast. Snow fading for the Sierra by mid-morning.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 26 inches, 26 inches, 24 inches, and 12 inches through 2/18.

Freezing level roughly 7,000 ft and holding through 2/15, then falling to 4,000 ft on 217 then bouncing back to 5,500 ft on 2/18 and beyond.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Swell was radiating north from a gale previously in the deep Southeast Pacific (see Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

Southeast Pacific Gale
A small gale started developing in the far Southeast Pacific Sun PM (2/7) producing 35-40 kt southwest winds with seas building from 26 ft at 53S 127 W aimed northeast. On Mon AM (2/8) southwest fetch was holding at 35 kts with seas 28 ft at 50.5S 129W aimed northeast. And a secondary fetch was forming south of there at 45 kts aimed north with seas building from 28 ft at 64S 119W aimed north. In the evening the secondary fetch is to be fading from 40 kts from the south with seas 30 ft at 61S 118W aimed north. A tertiary fetch of 40 kt southwest winds was building on Tues AM (2/9) with 33 ft seas at 62.5S 143.5W aimed northeast. In the evening that fetch is to lift hard northeast at 35 kts with seas fading from 30 ft at 55S 120W aimed northeast. This system is to dissipate after that. Possibly small southerly angled swell for Southern CA to result.

Southern CA: Rough data suggests swell arrival on Mon (2/15) building to 1.5 ft @ 17-18 secs late (2.5 ft). Swell building on Tues (2/16) pushing 2.0 ft @ 16 secs mid-day (3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 190 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours another gale is forecast developing well south and west of the dateline on Thurs PM (2/11) producing 40 kt northwest winds and seas building. By Fri AM (2/12) west winds are forecast building to 45 kts with seas building from 36 ft over a small area at 35.5N 175E aimed east. The gale is to start lifting northeast in the evening with 45 kt west winds pushing east over the dateline with seas 33 ft over a small area at 37N 174W aimed east. On Sat AM (2/13) the gale is to be lifting northeast fast with 45 kt west winds in the far Northwestern Gulf with seas 33 ft at 44.5N 164.5W aimed east. The gale is to be fading in the evening with 30 kt west winds over the dateline with seas fading from 22 ft at 43N 175W aimed east. This system is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

La Nina Pulsing

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/8) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light easterly over the East equatorial Pacific turning neutral over the Central Pacific then light easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/9) east anomalies were in control of the east KWGA with solid west anomalies in the far West KWGA. The forecast calls for this pattern to hold for the next week through the end of the model run on 2/16.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/8) A moderate Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects it slowly weakening while easing east and gone by day 15 of the model run with a weak Inactive Phase moving over the KWGA at that time. The dynamic model suggests a solid Active Phase holding steady still filling the KWGA at the end of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/9) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was moderate strength over the West Pacific today and is to ease east and fading to weak status on day 15 over North Africa. The GEFS model suggests the Active Phase is to hold position in the West Pacific at moderate strength through day 15, not moving east at all.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/8) This model depicts a weak Active MJO pattern (moist air) over the Central Pacific and is to track east while fading moving over Central America on 3/10. A weak Inactive Phase is to start building in the West Pacific on 2/18 and is to track east to Central America at the end of the model run on 3/20 while holding strength. A moderate Active Phase is to building over the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/8) This model depicts a weak Active MJO signal today over the KWGA with west anomalies over the core of the KWGA. The forecast indicates the Active Phase is to track east and out of the KWGA on 2/20 with west anomalies holding at modest strength till 2/16. Weak east anomalies are to return 2/17 holding in the KWGA and buidling on 2/30 to moderate strength and holding through the end of the model run on 3/8. The low pass filter indicates weakening in strength of the high pressure bias over the KWGA currently with 1 contour line and that is to lose 30% of it's girth at the end of the model run. West anomalies are currently south of California and are to build in coverage and strength through the end of the model run on 3/8. A dramatic fall of La Nina is forecast.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/9 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Active Phase in control of the KWGA and holding till 2/28 with weak west anomalies today and forecast holding over the KWGA. A broad but weak Inactive MJO is to return 2/15 tracking through the KWGA getting solid 3/7 and holding through 3/25 with moderate east anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Active MJO signal is forecast to follow starting in the west KWGA 3/18 tracking east through 4/14 producing weak west anomalies. A neutral MJO is to follow with mostly very weak west anomalies filling the KWGA through the end of the model run on 5/9. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 4 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California. The forth contour line is to fade on 3/29. The 3rd contour line is to fade on 5/2. The remaining 2 are to hold indefinitely. A double contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today but the second contour line is to fade on 2/14 with the remaining contour line theoretically shrinking in coverage from the west on 4/14 and starting to ease east to 165E. East anomalies that were previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year migrated east through the West Pacific to the East Pacific on 10/1/20 and stabilized there and are theoretically starting a slow fade.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/9) Today in the far West Pacific the 30 and 29 deg isotherms were gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 165E today. The 24 deg isotherm was building east and pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific down 15 meters in the far east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +3 deg C were locked steady in the West Pacific pushing east to 170W at depth but moving no further east. A broad but weakening cooling pattern was controlling the entire equatorial Pacific with anomalies focused at -3C at 135W and west from there. A pocket of +1 deg anomalies was shrinking from 120W eastward. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/2 indicates the same thing. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were the least negative at any time in months. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/2) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to the dateline on the equator at -5 to -10 cms continuous over that area with a broad pocket at -15 cms between 130W-150W. A thin flow of neutral anomalies that was pushing off Ecuador over the Galapagos is fading out. Negative anomalies at -5 to -10 cms were along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and reaching north up to Baja and -5 to -10 cms into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Cape Mendocino to the intersection of the dateline and equator then into Southern Chile. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from 170E and points west of there. But the triangle was not as strong as weeks past but not substantially weakening either.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/8) The latest images indicate pockets of warm anomalies were fading fast on the equator from Ecuador west to 140W being replaced by a new stream of cooling waters. A broader area of cooler temps were on the equator from 145W to the dateline. Solid cool anomalies were south of there streaming from Chile west-northwest to the dateline. But no markedly cooler imbedded pockets were present in the east but several were in the west between 160-180W on the equator. The cool pool looks like it is trying to regenerate. But cool anomalies were losing strength along the coast of Peru with stray pockets of warming interspersed. This indicates a late phase version of La Nina filling the entire equatorial Pacific and down into Chile. But the overall cool intensity of that pool appears to be waning. We are past the peak of this event.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/8): Temps continue warming off Chile and Peru reaching west to 150W. But a stream of building cooling waters was developing on the equator from Ecuador to 140W. This is not encouraging.
Hi-res Overview: (2/8) A stream of consistent cool water is well entrenched from Chile up well off Peru tracking west on the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea. Previous warm anomalies on the equator from Ecuador to 130W in pockets were all but gone. A broader and cooler core of La Nina cold waters are pushing west from 140W towards the dateline.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/9) Today's temps were rising slightly to -0.207 after a recent high of +0.10 on 2/1. Temps previously were -0.604 on 1/24. A previous peak of -0.595 occurred on 12/11. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been on a slow but steady increase.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/9) Temps were falling today to -0.711. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3, rising to to -0.982 on 1/21 to -0.639 on 2/7. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps were on a steady decline since 7/25 then bottomed out in late October and have been on a slow increase since.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/9) Actuals per the model indicates temps rose to -0.65 degs mid-Jan after bottoming out in early Nov at -1.25 degs. The forecast depicts temps rising from today into April to -0.45 then starting a steep decline falling to -1.50 degs in Oct. This seems unbelievable but suggests another year of La Nina possible.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Jan 21, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.80 degs today, and are to rise to -0,25 in April and neutral by August. Most models are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (2/9): The daily index was rising hard to +30.93. The 30 day average was rising to +14.71 after peaking at 19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was rising to +14.76 and new peak clearly identifying La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

****

External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (2/7):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=J775eLTTBUc&feature=youtu.be
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

- - -

NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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