BUOY ROUNDUP
Sunday, February 23, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Sunday (2/23) in North and Central CA waves were 2-3 ft overhead and clean and lined up with decent form bordering on closed out all breaking on the outer bar but buried in fog early. Protected breaks were chest high and lined up if not closed out and breaking fairly hard and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was head high to 1 ft overhead and lined up with good form and super clean but soft. In Ventura County surf was waist high plus and lined up with decent form and clean but with a fair amount of warble in the water. Central Orange County had sets at chest to shoulder high and super lined up coming from the north and peeling down the beach and real clean early but a little on the soft side. South Orange County's best summertime breaks had sets at chest high and lined up with decent form and clean. North San Diego had sets at 2 ft overhead and lined up and clean but a little bit closed out. Oahu's North Shore had sets at 2-3 ft overhead on the sets and lined up with good form and clean early. The South Shore had sets at thigh high and weakly lined up and soft and clean. The East Shore was getting east windswell at knee to maybe thigh high and warbled from modest east trades early.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Sunday (2/23) California was getting fading swell that mainly originated from a gale that developed while tracking east-northeast through the Western and Central Gulf Tues-Wed (2/19) with up to 26 ft seas aimed east. Another gale developed off Japan moving to the dateline Wed-Fri (2/21) with 28 ft seas then tracked northeast up through the Gulf Sat-Sun (2/23) with 21 ft seas aimed east. Weak swell to result. Another to follow just off Oregon on Mon (2/24) with 37 ft seas aimed southeast. And another is to be be developing on the Gulf Mon-Tues (2/25) with 28-33 ft seas aimed east. And yet maybe another to develop on the dateline Tues (2/25) tracking east-northeast building to 45 ft Wed (2/26) before fading Thurs (2/27) in the Northwest Gulf. A nice little storm pattern is setting up. And yet maybe another to develop mid-day from Japan to the dateline Sun (3/2) with 31 ft seas aimed east.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Sunday (2/23) the jetstream was consolidated pushing flat east off Japan on the 33N latitude line with winds 170-180 kts reaching east to a point 750 nmiles west of San Francisco with no troughs indicated but still generalized support for gale formation was occurring just due tot he length of the consolidation 9almost the whole way across the North Pacific). Over the next 72 hours more of the same is forecast but with a trough organizing just west of the dateline tracking east into Wed (2/26) offering improved support for gale formation there. And the split point to hold position. Beyond 72 hours starting late Wed (2/26) the trough is to reach a point north of Hawaii with winds in the jet now 180-190 kts offering good support there for gale formation before fading later on Fri (2/28) in the Eastern Gulf. After that the jet is to start weakening though still generally consolidated with winds down to 130 kts on Sun (3/2) running from Japan to a point north of Hawaii with a new trough developing just west of the dateline offering some hope for more gale formation. Quite a nice little set-up forecast.

Surface Analysis
On Sunday (2/23) swell was fading in California from a tertiary gale that traversed the Gulf (see Tertiary Gulf Gale below). A series of gales and swells are forecast behind with the first off Oregon (see Oregon Gale below) another developing over the Western Gulf (see West Gulf Gale below) and a storm over the West Gulf behind (see West Gulf Storm below).

Weak Trans Pacific Gale
On Tues AM (2/18) a tiny gale developed while pushing east off Japan with 35 kt west winds and seas building from 24 ft over a tiny area at 37.5N 154E aimed east. In the evening fetch was stationary with west winds 35-40 kts with seas 27 ft at 40N 154.25E aimed east. On Wed AM (2/19) the gale was regrouping off Japan with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 27 ft at 38N 160E aimed east. Fetch was falling southeast in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 27 ft at 35.25N 157E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/20) fetch was finally tracking east at 35-40 kts building some in coverage with seas 29 ft at 33.75N 166.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch was over the dateline with west winds 35 kts and seas 26 ft at 32.25N 171.25E aimed east. On Fri AM (2/21) fetch was pushing east of the dateline at 35 kts with seas 25-26 ft at 40.5N 176.5E aimed east. In the evening fetch was moving into the Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft at 41.75N 176.5W aimed east. Fetch was fading from 30-35 kts while tracking east-northeast in the Gulf Sat AM (2/22) with seas fading from 22-23 ft in pockets centered near 42N 166.75W aimed east. In the evening west winds were 30 kts with seas 22 ft at 41.5N 160.25W aimed east targeting only the US West Coast now. Fetch gone after that with seas fading Sun AM (2/23) from 19-20 ft at 43N 145W aimed east. This system is to be diffused and not well organized. Steady background swell for HI and CA the likely outcome.

Oahu: Expect swell arrival on Sun (2/23) building to 6.1 ft @ 15 secs late AM (9.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (2/24) from 5.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (7.0 ft). Swell Direction: 310-315 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Tues (2/25) but likely buried in more locally generated swell (see Oregon Gale below)

Oregon Gale
On Sun PM (2/23) a gale is forecast developing off North California starting to generate west winds at 30+ kts and seas building. On Mon AM (2/24) west winds to be 35-40 kts just off the Oregon-California border with seas building from 23 ft at 42N 138.5W aimed east. In the evening west winds to be 45 kts just off North Oregon with seas 35 ft at 43.75N 130W and east of the NOrth Ca swell window. The gale is to be inland after that.

North CA: Rough data for planning purposes suggests swell arrival mid-day Tues (2/25) with swell building to 10 ft @ 15 secs (15.0 ft) and shadowed in the SF Bay Area. Swell fading Wed (2/26) from 7.3 ft @ 13-14 secs early (9.5 ft). Swell Direction: 306 degrees

West Gulf Gale
On Sun PM (2/23) a new gale is to be developing on the dateline with west winds 35-40 kts and seas building from 29 ft at 34.25N 173.75E aimed east. On Mon AM (2/24) the gale to track east with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 29 ft at 37.25N 171.5W aimed east. Fetch to build in the evening at 45 kts in the Central Gulf with seas 30 ft at 36N 162.5W aimed east. On Tues AM (2/25) the gale is to build in the Central Gulf with northwest winds 45-50 kts and seas 32 ft at 38.5N 154.5W aimed east and southeast. In the evening the gael is to lift northeast with northwest winds 40 kts and seas 29-30 ft at 40N 148.5W aimed east. Fetch lifting hard northeast on Wed AM (2/28) off Washington with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas fading from 27 ft at 42.5N 145W aimed east and southeast. The gale to dissipate after that.

Oahu: For planning purposes expect swell arrival possibly on Wed (2/26) before sunrise building to 5.9 ft @ 15 secs early (8.5 ft). Swell Direction: 320 degrees

West Gulf Storm
On Tues (2/25) a new gale is forecast developing just west of the dateline producing northwest winds at 45 kts and seas building from 23 ft at 33.5N 167E aimed southeast. In the evening the gale is to lift east-northeast with winds building to 40-45 kts over a decent sized area and seas 30 ft at 34.5N 178E aimed east and southeast. On Wed AM (2/26) the gale to build to storm status with west winds 55 kts and seas building from 36 ft at 38N 172.75W aimed east and southeast. In the evening west winds to hold while lifting east-northeast at 55 kts and seas 44 ft at 40N 165W aimed east. on Thurs AM (2/27) the storm to fade to gale status now in the northwestern Gulf with west winds 45 kts and seas 41 ft at 42.75N 158W aimed east. In the evening fetch is to fade from 40 kts from the west and seas fading from 39 ft at 46.75N 154W aimed east. Fri AM (2/28) fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts in the Northern Gulf with seas fading from 33 ft at 50.5N 148/25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Secondary Kuril-Dateline Gale/Tertiary Gulf Gale
On Fri PM (2/14) secondary fetch was building off Japan associated with a gale fading off the Kuril Islands (see above) producing northwest winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas building from 24 ft at 36N 163E aimed east-southeast. On Sat AM northwest winds were half way to the dateline at 35 kts over a broad area with seas 25-26 ft at 34N 163E aimed east. In the evening northwest winds were 35 kts extending from the Kuril Islands to the south dateline with seas 27-28 ft at 34.75N 165.25E aimed southeast targeting Hawaii well. On Sun AM (2/16) a broad elongated fetch of 30-35 kt northwest winds were extending from the Kuril's to the dateline with seas fading from 25 ft at 33N 170E. Fetch fading out in the evening with seas fading from 24 ft at 35.25N 173E aimed east and southeast. Swell pushing towards Hawaii initially. On Tues (2/18) tertiary fetch was redeveloping on the dateline producing west winds 40 kts moving in the Western Gulf with seas 26 ft at 35N 180W aimed east. In the evening west winds to lift northeast into the Central Gulf at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 37.5N 166W aimed east. On Wed AM (2/19) fetch is to be moving through the Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts and seas 26 ft at 40N 158W aimed east targeting mainly the mainland now. In the evening west winds are to be fading in the Eastern Gulf from 30-35 kts with seas fading from 23 ft at 44N 151W aimed east. Fetch gone after that.

North CA: Swell fading Sun (2/23) from 4.8 ft @ 12-13 secs early (6.0 ft). Residuals on Mon (2/24) holding at 5.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 8,500 ft through Tues (2/25) rising to 10,500 ft 2/26-3/1 falling to 5,500 ft 3/2 and holding beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Previously a gale developed in the Southwest Pacific (see below).

Over the next 72 hours another gale is forecast developing Mon AM (2/24) well to the north and due east of New Zealand with south winds 45 kts and seas building from 24 ft at 46S 163W aimed north-northeast. South winds holding in the evening at 40-45 kts with seas 30 ft at 47S 152w aimed northeast. Tues AM (2/25) south winds to be 45 kts solid with seas 33 ft at 49S 147.5W aimed northeast. In the afternoon fetch fades from 40 kts with seas 33 ft at 47S 138W aimed northeast. On Wed AM (2/26) southwest fetch fades from 40 kts with seas fading from 29 ft at 49S 129.5W aimed northeast. The gale dissipates after that. Perhaps a semi legit early season southern hemi swell could result if all develops as forecast.

Southwest Pacific Gale
A gale developed southeast of New Zealand on Thurs AM (2/13) with southwest winds 40 kts and seas 23 ft at 61S 177W aimed northeast. In the evening southwest winds were 40 kts aimed well northeast with seas 29 ft at 59.75S 166.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (2/14) fetch was fading from 35 kts with seas 27 ft at 57S 159.75W aimed northeast. Fetch and seas faded out after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Mon (2/24) building to 1.0 ft @ 15-16 secs mid-day (1.5 ft). Swell 1.0ft @ 14-15 secs early on Tues (2/25) (1.5 ft). Swell dissipating after that. Swell Direction 200 degrees

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours yet another gale is forecast developing well off the Kuril Islands falling southeast Fri-Sun (3/2) with seas 23-26 ft. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Fading
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/22) 5 day average winds were modest from the east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate to strong east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light west over the East equatorial Pacific and neutral over the Central Pacific and weak east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (2/23) Today mostly modest east anomalies were filling the KWGA and a neutral pattern was over the Maritime Continent. The forecast indicates moderate east anomalies in control of the KWGA 2/24 holding steady unchanged through the end of the model run 3/11. The west anomaly pattern previously over the Maritime Continent that has dominated this Winter is gone and is to not return.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/23) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing west to 172E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and building and reasonably solid in depth. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West and East Pacific with a pocket of solidly cooler anomalies at -3 degs present down 100 meters at 120W and negative anomalies between 165W to 95W filling the Central Pacific thermocline but less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/17 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 175W east to 100W at up to -4.0 to -5.0 degs below normal centered at 110W but much less cooler west of there. The density and volume of that cold water at depth was declining fast in the west and weakly building in the east. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building now pushing east to 165W in one finger. The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/17) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were negative at -5 cms from the Galapagos west to 170E with -10 cms in one pocket at 105W and another at 155W and losing coverage. It appears the cool pool is fading and westward displaced. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (2/17) the cool pool was fading in intensity while holding in coverage from just east of the dateline to just off Ecuador. A La Nina pattern is in play with 6 pulses so far (the first showed in Feb). Warm water is limited west of the dateline and getting steadily warmer and building in coverage.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (2/22) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the equatorial Pacific from 130W to 160E strongest from 155W to 170E. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 130W and filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/22): Temps were warming solidly over the Equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to 120W and then a mix of warming and neutral temps west of there to the dateline but biased towards warming. The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/23) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were steady at +0.698 and have been peaking starting 2/15 at +0.573. This was the peak of a long warming pattern that started from -0.962 (1/28). Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/23) Today's temps were rising steadily at -0.647 after falling to -1.5 (1/25) after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were -0.3 weeks of 2/12 and rising. Previously temps were -0.3 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.09 (NDJ), -0.93 (OND), -0.82 (SON), -0.76 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.51 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.26 (AMJ), +0.06 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.86 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.47 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.49 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (2/23) - Temps to rise to -0.15 in March fading in April to -0.25, turning neutral in July (0.0) and +0.50 in Oct. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (2/23/25) the Daily Index was positive at +4.42 and negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was falling some at +8.88 and has been falling the last 7 days, well in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was falling some at +6.93 and weakly in La Nina territory.
We are in ENSO neutral status moving towards La Nina.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling to -1.52 in March 2024, -2.12 April, -2.99 May, -3.16 in June, -2.99 July, -2.91 Aug and -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. In Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like'). We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table