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Pacific Storm and Surf Forecast
Updated: Saturday, February 27, 2021 1:15 PM
Buoys: Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Buoy Forecast:
Northern CA - Southern CA - Hawaii - Gulf of Alaska - Pacific Northwest
Pacific Links:  Atmospheric Models - Buoy Data - Current Weather - Wave Models
Forecast Archives: Enter Here
A chronology of recent Mavericks Underground forecasts. Once you enter, just click on the HTML file forecast you want to review (e.g. 073199.html equals July 31, 1999). To view the maps that correspond to that forecast date, select the html file labeled 073199 maps.html
3.8 - California & 3.1 - Hawaii
Using the 'Winter' Scale
(See Swell Category Table link at bottom of page)

Probability for presence of largest swells in near-shore waters of NCal, SCal or Hawaii.    

Issued for Week of Monday 3/1 thru Sun 3/7

Swell Potential Rating Categories
5 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Significant swell
4 = Good probability for 1-2 days of Significant swell
3 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Intermediate/Advanced swell
2 = Good probability for  1-2 days of
Intermediate/Advanced swell
1 = Good probability for 3 or more days of Impulse or Windswell
0 = Low probability for 1-2 days of Impulse or Windswell   

Solid Gale to Traverse Extreme NPac
High Pressure Locking Down Gulf

BUOY ROUNDUP
On Saturday, February 27, 2021 :

  • Buoy 233 (Pearl Harbor Entrance)/Buoy 239 (Lanai): Seas were 4.0 ft @ 14.3 secs with swell 1.9 ft @ 14.0 secs from 195 degrees. Water temp 76.1 degs.
  • Buoy 187 (Pauwela): Seas were 11.3 ft @ 11.1 secs with swell 9.5 ft @ 10.4 secs from 75.6 degrees.
  • Buoy 46025 (Catalina RDG): Seas were 4.8 ft @ 6.7 secs with swell 3.8 ft @ 6.5 secs from 268 degrees. Wind at the buoy was northwest at 12-16 kts. Water temperature NA degs. At Harvest Buoy (071) primary swell was 9.3 ft @ 10.3 secs from 313 degrees. At Santa Monica (028) swell was 3.0 ft @ 6.5 secs from 266 degrees. At Oceanside (045) swell was 2.5 ft @ 8.3 secs from 272 degrees. Southward at Point Loma (191) swell was 3.2 ft @ 8.7 secs from 278 degrees.
  • Buoy 46012 (Half Moon Bay)/029 (Pt Reyes): Seas were 15.2 ft @ 13.3 secs with swell 7.7 ft @ 12.9 secs from 317 degrees. Wind at the buoy (012) was north at 25-33 kts. Water temp 49.3 (029), 51.1 degs (SF Bar) and 52.3 degs (Santa Cruz).

See Hi-Res Buoy Dashboards (bottom of the page)

 
 
Swell Classification Guidelines

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer
- Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer
- Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer
- up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (2/27) North and Central CA had waves pushing 1 ft overhead on the sets with northwest winds and chop in control and not really rideable. Protected breaks were head high and reasonably lined up but chopped and mushed and not good. At Santa Cruz surf was waist to chest high on the sets and clean and real weak and mushed. In Southern California/Ventura waves were waist to maybe chest high and pure windswell and pretty warbled from wind off the coast though local winds were calm. Central Orange County had set waves at waist high with luck and nearly chopped from south winds and mushed and gutless. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were flat to knee high and clean. North San Diego had sets at maybe thigh to waist high and clean and lined up but weak. Hawaii's North Shore had a few sets at waist high or so and fairly clean at top spots but soft and weak. The South Shore was getting a few waist high sets and clean and lined up. The East Shore was getting east windswell with waves 3 ft overhead and chopped from strong east wind.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (2/27) California was locally generated north windswell from high pressure filling the Gulf of Alaska. Hawaii was getting east windswell from the same high pressure system. A small gale developed off the Kuril Islands on Wed (2/24) with 32 ft seas and again not making it to the dateline. Tiny swell is poised for Hawaii from it. A gale is forecast developing in the far Northwest Pacific Sun-Mon (3/1) producing 44 ft seas aimed east with luck then redeveloping in the Northwestern Gulf on Tues-Wed (3/3) producing 28-32 ft seas aimed southeast and fading while moving over the Central Gulf on Thurs (3/4). And perhaps some secondary fetch to develop behind it in the Northern Gulf on Sat (3/6). Down south a gale tracked under New Zealand producing tiny swell that is fading in Hawaii and poised for CA. And a small gale developed over the Southeast Pacific Wed-Thurs (2/25) producing barely 35 ft seas over a tiny area aimed northeast. But nothing else is to follow. Things are certainly moving towards a Spring pattern.

See all the details below...

 

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (2/27) the jet was weakly consolidated pushing just east of Japan forming a pinched trough over the Kuril Islands with winds flowing northeast from it at 160 kts reaching the Central Aleutians then falling southeast again forming a second tiny pinched trough before ridging solidly northeast over the Alaskan Coast and then down the US West Coast. There was very limited odds to support gale development in those 2 troughs. Otherwise the jet was splitting just east of the Kuril trough at 155E and flowing east over Hawaii then southeast from there and weak and meaningless. Over the next 72 hours the Kuril trough is to lift northeast holding together somewhat but moving into the far Northwest Bering Sea and hardly of interest relative to the greater Pacific Ocean tracking east through the Bering Sea and losing definition. It is likely to support some degree of gale development in the Bering Sea. The other steep trough over the Central Aleutians is to track rapidly east and over the Northeastern Gulf of Alaska on Sun (2/28) before falling down the US West Coast on Mon-Tues (3/2) but weak and likely offering nothing before moving inland over Central CA on Wed (3/3). Beyond 72 hours and back to the west starting late Tues (3/2) the jet is to be massively split at 160E with the northern branch ridging hard north up even north of the West Bering Sea tracking east but then falling hard southeast into the Northern Gulf Wed AM (3/3) forming a nice trough there being fed by 140 kts winds and deepening into Thurs (3/4) offering some hope for gale development there. But that trough is to be fading while tracking east just off the Pacific Northwest on Fri (3/5) no longer supporting gale development. By Sat (3/6) the jet is to split just off Japan with most energy in the northern branch tracking over the Aleutians and very weak and ill formed offering nothing. A weak trough is to again redevelop over the Northern Gulf but with no wind energy supporting gale development. It looks like a transition to Spring is developing.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (2/27) mini swell from from a gale previously off the Kuril Islands is poised for Hawaii (see 2nd Kuril Gale below). Also swell from a gale previously in the Northeast Gulf was supposedly hitting CA but buried in larger locally generated windswell (see Northeast Gulf Gale below). But the overwhelming trend maker is the presence of a massive and very solid 1040 mb high pressure system that was filling the Gulf of Alaska while falling gently southeast off the North CA coast and is to be followed by another 1040 mb high backfilling in the Gulf on Mon (3/1).

Over the next 72 hours a gale is forecast developing just off Kamchatka on Sat PM (2/27) producing 45 kt northwest winds and 26 ft seas aimed southeast at 48.5N 161.5E. On Sun AM (2/28) the gale is to lift northeast fast producing a solid area of 45-50 kt west winds approaching the North Dateline region producing seas of 32 ft at 47N 168E aimed east. In the evening the storm is to move into the Bering Sea with 55 kt west winds and fetch of 50 kts just west of the North Dateline Region and south of the Aleutians with 44 ft seas unshadowed at 51N 172E aimed east. On Mon AM (3/1) the storm is to track east through the Bering Sea with 40-45 kt west winds just barely south of the Aleutian over the Dateline with 43 ft seas at 51N 178W aimed east. In the evening 35-40 kt west fetch is to be just south of the Eastern Aleutians with 37 ft seas at 52N 169W aimed east. On Tues AM (3/2) fetch is to fade from 35-40 kts now well exposed in the Northwestern Gulf with seas fading from 33 ft at 51N 165W aimed east. Interestingly the gale is to fall southeast in the evening with 35-40 kt northwest winds building in coverage and seas building in coverage at 31 ft at 50N 157W aimed southeast. The gale is to hold on Wed AM (3/3) with 35-40 kt north winds and seas 29 ft at 47N 157W aimed south-southeast. In the evening the gale is to fade some while easing east with 35 kt north-northwest winds and seas 29 ft at 46N 156W. The gale is to fade on Thurs AM (3/4) with 30 kt northwest winds in the Central Gulf and seas fading from 26 ft at 42N 153W aimed south-southeast. This system is to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

2nd Kuril Gale
Another small gale started developing just off the Kuril Islands Wed AM (2/24) producing 45 kt west winds over a small area and 31 ft seas at 44N 160E aimed east. In the evening the gale was fading producing 40 kt west winds over a shrinking area with seas building to 32 ft at 44.5N 165.5E aimed east. On Thurs AM (2/25) 35 kt southwest winds were pushing northeast with 25 ft seas up at 48N 173E aimed east-northeast. The gale is to be gone after that. Perhaps some small swell to result for Hawaii.

Hawaii (Oahu): Expect swell arrival on Sun (2/28) before sunrise holding at 3.2 ft @ 16 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell fading Mon (3/1) from 2.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 312 degrees

 

Northeast Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (2/24) a small gale developed in the Northern Gulf of Alaska with 45 kt northwest winds and seas building fast from 25 ft at 52.5N 147W aimed east and barely in the NCal swell window (319 degs). Fetch was build Thurs AM (2/25) to 50 kts while falling southeast just off the Canadian Coast with seas 38 ft at 53.5N 137.5W aimed east but well east of the North CA swell window. Minimal swell generation potential is forecast. The gale is to fade and move inland from there.

North CA: Low odds of sideband swell arriving on Sat AM (2/27) at 2.9 ft @ 15 secs later (4.5 ft) but buried in local north windswell. Swell Direction: 315+ degs

 

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

Tropical Update
No tropical weather system of interest were being monitored.

California Nearshore Forecast

  • Sun (2/28) north winds are forecast at 20-25 kts early for North CA and 10-15 kts for Central CA (though lighter nearshore) fading to north at 10 kts mid-AM and going calm after that. North winds fading to 10-15 kts for Cape Mendocino later.
  • Mon (3/1) south winds are forecast at 5-10 kts for all of North and Central CA early turning light northwest 5-10 kts in the afternoon with weak and fading low pressure well off the coast.
  • Tues (3/2) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts all day for North and Central CA but turning north 20 kts for North Cape Mendocino late. Rain developing a sunset for Central CA down to Santa Barbara County.
  • Wed (3/3) northwest winds are forecast at 20 kts early for North and Central CA and building into Southern CA late AM. Late afternoon northwest winds to fade to 10-15 kts for North CA and 15 kts for Central CA and 15-20 kts for Southern CA. Rain for Southern CA and Central CA up to Morro Bay early fading through the day and gone at sunset. Maybe a dusting of snow for the Mammoth Area and the Central Sierra.
  • Thurs (3/4) south winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North CA and calm south of there building to 25 kts for Cape Mendocino late afternoon and south 5-10 kts for the rest of North CA and northwest 5 kts for Central CA.
  • Fri (3/5) light winds are forecast everywhere early but North CA to have south winds 5-10 kts and up to 25 kts for North Cape Mendocino with south winds building to 15 kts down to Pt Arena later. Rain developing for the area from Pt Arena northward after dark.
  • Sat (3/6) northwest winds are forecast at 5-10 kts early for North and Central CA and up to 15 kts from Morro bay southward.in the afternoon northwest winds are forecast at 15 kts for all of North and Central CA.

Total snow accumulation for the next 10 days for Squaw Valley, Sugar Bowl, Kirkwood and Mammoth at 3 inches, 3 inches, 2 inches, and 1 inch through 3/8.

Freezing level 5,000 ft today building to 7,000 ft on 2/28 and holding for the foreseeable future (through 3/8) except for one peak to 10,000 ft limited to 3/4.

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for resort specific forecasts). Updated!

 

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
Small swell from a gale previously lifting northeast from under New Zealand was radiating northeast (see Small New Zealand Gale below). Also small swell from a gale previously in the far Southeast Pacific was radiating north (see Small Southeast Pacific Gale below).

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems are forecast.

 

Small New Zealand Gale
On Wed PM (2/17) a small gale was tracking northeast from under New Zealand producing 40 kt southwest winds with seas 29 ft at 62S 1670E aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (2/18) the gale was lifting northeast with southwest winds fading from 35+ kts with seas 32 ft at 58.5S 179.5W aimed northeast. The gale faded in the evening with 30-35 kt southwest winds and seas fading from 29 ft at 57.5S 168.5W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (2/19) residuals 30+ kt southwest winds were still present producing 25 ft seas at 48S 172W aimed almost north. In the evening fetch was fading while pushing north from 30 kts with seas fading from 24 ft at 44S 165W aimed north at Hawaii and Tahiti. Small background swell is expected for Hawaii and Tahiti.

Hawaii: Swell fading on Sat (2/27) from 1.3 ft @ 14-15 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 192 degrees

Southern CA: Swell weakly showing late on Sat (2/27) pushing 1.1 ft @ 18 secs (1.5-2.0 ft) rarely. Swell building some on Sun (2/28) to 1.2 ft @ 16-17 secs (2.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (3/1) at 1.3 ft @ 15-16 secs early (2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (3/2) from 1.2 ft @ 14-15 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 208 degrees

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (2/28) at 1.1 ft @ 16-17 secs later (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell holding on Mon (3/1) at 1.2 ft @ 15-16 secs (1.5-2.0 ft). Swell fading on Tues (3/2) from 1.1 ft @ 14-15 secs early (1.5 ft). Swell Direction: 207 degrees

 

Small Southeast Pacific Gale
A gale started developing the Southeast Pacific on Wed PM (2/24) producing 45 kt south-southwest winds and seas building from 33 ft at 59S 134W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (2/25) south winds were fading from 35-40 kts with seas 33 ft aimed north at 55S 128.5W. In the evening fetch is to be fading from 30-35 kts aimed north with seas fading from 26 ft at 54S 122W aimed north-northeast. This system is to be gone after that. Something to monitor.

Southern CA: Expect swell arrival on Thurs (3/4) building to 1.3 ft @ 19 secs late (2.0 ft). Swell Direction: 187 degrees

 

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

 

QuikCAST's

 

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing in the Northwestern Gulf on Fri AM (3/5) producing 45+ kt northwest winds generating 27 ft seas at 51N 160.5W. In the evening northwest winds are to fall southeast at 45 kts moving into the Central Gulf with 35 ft seas building at 48N 153.5W aimed southeast. On Sat AM (3/6) the gale is to be fading with 35 kt northwest winds and seas fading from 33 ft at 44N 147W aimed southeast. The gale to dissipate from there. Something to monitor.

 

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours no swell producing fetch is forecast.

 

 

MJO/ENSO Forecast

 

Equatorial Warming Trend Fading - But CFS Longterm Forecast Improves Slightly

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.
And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: A double dip La Nina was in control through the Winter of 2017-2018. But warming started building along the South and Central American coast in early March 2018 associated with two upwelling Kelvin Waves, and continued trying to build over equatorial waters over the Summer and Fall, but not enough to declare El Nino and not coupled with the atmosphere. In January 2019, those warm waters were fading, but then rebuilt late in Feb associated with Kelvin Wave (#3). But as of early June 2019 warm water was fading and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. El Nino was dead. A bit of a recovery occurred during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru and had not changed until March 2020. By April the cool pool pushed east and by May subsurface cool waters erupted off Ecuador, forming a well defined cool tongue that looked like the start of La Nina, holding into July 2020.

LONG-RANGE PACIFIC STORM AND SWELL GENERATION POTENTIAL FORECAST
Fall/Winter 2020/2021 = 3.0/3.5 (California & Hawaii)
Rating based on a 1-10 scale: 1 being the lowest (small and infrequent surf conditions), 5 being normal/average, and 10 being extraordinary (frequent events of large, long period swells)

Rationale: It is assumed the PDO has moved to the warm phase in 2014 and that a weak borderline El Nino from 2018 faded out in the Fall of 2019. A La Nina like ocean temperature pattern developed in the equatorial East Pacific in the summer of 2019, then faded and returned to a neutral if not weak warm status during the Winter of 2019-2020 only to return stronger in the Summer of 2020. We have been suspecting a turn towards a La Nina like atmospheric pattern to develop in the late Winter/early Spring of 2020. Our best hope is that moderation from the warm phase of the PDO might tamp down development of a full blown La Nina as we move into 2020. But at this time that does not appear likely. Given all that, for the 2020 there is decent probability for development of La Nina meaning a reduced number of storm days and storm intensity during the summer season, resulting in a below normal level of swell, with swell being below normal duration and period. And by the Fall and early Winter of 2020/21, the number of storm days, intensity and duration of those storms should fade even more, resulting in depressed swell production. This pattern is expected to hold through the Spring of 2021.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis & Short-term Forecast (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (2/26) 5 day average winds were strong from the east over the Eastern equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific and solidly strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were light east over the East equatorial Pacific continuing over the Central Pacific then modest easterly over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, so they lag what is happening today by about 2 days).
1 Week Forecast (GFS Model): On (2/27) east anomalies were solid over the dateline and the East KWGA with light west anomalies over the extreme west KWGA. The forecast calls light west anomalies holding over the far West KWGA but solid strong east anomalies holding over the dateline (Eastern KWGA) through the end of the model run on 3/6.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

Longer Range MJO/WWB Projections:  
OLR Models: (2/26) A modest Active MJO pattern was over the KWGA today. The statistic model projects it easing slowly east while losing strength and dissipating just west of the dateline on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the same thing but with the Active Phase moving more solidly to the east and stronger straddling the dateline at day 15 of the model run.
Phase Diagrams 2 week forecast (ECMF and GEFS): (2/27) The statistical model depicts the Active Phase was very weak over the far east Maritime Continent today and is to track east fading over the West Pacific at very weak status on day 15 of the model run. The dynamic model suggests the Active Phase is to push further east to the Central Atlantic and very weak at day 15.
40 day Upper Level Model (assumed to be a statistical mode and 1 week ahead of what is occurring at the surface): (2/26) This model depicts a solid and broad Active MJO pattern (moist air) over the West Pacific and it is to track east while holding strength moving over Central America on 3/25. A solid Inactive Phase is to move over the West Pacific on 3/14 and is to track east and to Central America at the end of the model run on 4/7. A weak Active Phase is to develop over the KWGA at that time.
4 Week CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/26) This model depicts a neutral MJO signal over the KWGA but with weak west anomalies over the West KWGA and East anomalies over the Dateline/East KWGA. The forecast indicates west anomalies are to backtrack west and be gone from the KWGA on 3/15 with east anomalies slowly taking control from dateline building west filling the KWGA on 3/15 at moderate plus status holding through the end of the model run on 3/26 as the Inactive Phase develops over the KWGA at that time. East anomalies are forecast building in coverage in the Central and East Pacific even filling the area almost to a point south of California at the end of the model run.
3 Month CFS Model (850 mb wind): (2/27 - using the 4th/latest ensemble member): This model depicts a weak Inactive MJO is moving east over the KWGA today continuing on that path through 3/7 but with weak west anomalies holding in the far West KWGA and moderate east anomalies east of there. A weak Active MJO signal is forecast to follow 3/8-3/20 with winds unchanged in the KWGA. Another weak Inactive MJO is forecast in the KWGA 3/21-4/30 but west anomalies are to build to weak status filling the KWGA over the timeframe. A solid Active MJO is to follow tracking east 4/25-5/17 producing solid west anomalies filling the KWGA. A weak Inactive MJO is to follow 5/11 through the end of the model run on 5/27 but with weak west anomalies holding over the KWGA. The low pass filter indicates a high pressure bias is firmly in control over the dateline today with 4 contour lines reaching east to a point south of California. The forth contour line is to fade on 3/28. The 3rd contour line is to fade on 4/27. The second contour line is to fade 5/14. The remaining 1 is to hold indefinitely but easing east. A single contour low pressure bias is over the Indian Ocean today. The remaining contour line is to theoretically start shrinking in coverage from the west on 4/6 and starting to ease east to 180W at the end of the run and almost filling the KWGA at that time. East anomalies that were previously solid in the Indian Ocean for over a year migrated east into the West Pacific on 10/1/20 and stabilized there, but are theoretically starting a slow fade while migrating east moving to the a point south of California by 4/24.

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (2/27) Today in the far West Pacific the 28 deg isotherm line was steady at 165E today. The 24 deg isotherm was pushing the whole way across the equatorial Pacific and building some compared to a week prior. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies +4 deg C were starting to show signs of easing east with the dividing line today at 155W versus 165W 3 days ago. A broad cooling pattern was controlling the entire equatorial Pacific with anomalies in a broad pocket at -3C at 130W and west from there. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 2/22 indicates the same thing. Negative anomalies in the East Pacific were the least negative at any time in months. The GODAS animation appears to be 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately modeled.
Sea Level Anomalies: (2/22) Negative anomalies were forming a wave pushing west from the Galapagos to the dateline on the equator at -5 to -10 cms continuous over that area. But that area was weaker than at any point over the past 6 months. And no -15 cms readings were present on the equator now. A broad area of neutral anomalies was building over the Galapagos. Negative anomalies were -5 cms along the coast of Peru up into Ecuador and reaching north up to Baja at -5 to -10 cms then weaker into South and North CA. Looking at the big picture, negative anomalies were forming a massive triangle from Cape Mendocino to the intersection of the dateline and equator then into Southern Chile. No positive anomalies were over the equatorial Pacific, except from 170E and points west of there. But the triangle was substantially weakening.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4: (2/26) The latest images indicate a stream of cool waters tracking west from 100W joining the main pocket on the equator from 145W to the dateline. And cooler temps were building along the coast of Peru poised to connect with the flow starting at 100W. The total cool flow looks a bit stronger today than days past. Cool anomalies were streaming from Chile west-northwest to the dateline also feeding the main cool pool but much weaker than even a few days ago. Overall this indicates a late phase version of La Nina filling the bulk of the equatorial Pacific and down into Chile but the overall intensity of that pool appears to be waning. We are past the peak of this event and possible moving towards its demise.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (2/26): Temps are cooling modestly along the equator from Ecuador west to 150W with 4 pockets indicated imbedded in this flow. Weak warming was off South Chile and Peru but fading. Overall a neutral trend is underway.
Hi-res Overview: (2/26) A stream of cool water is well entrenched from Chile tracking northwest to the equator out to the dateline and west to New Guinea. A fragile pattern of warm anomalies was trying to develop on the equator from Ecuador to 100W but losing ground today. A broader and cooler core of La Nina cold waters are pushing west from 110W towards the dateline and cooler than day past. A cooling was building along Peru.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (2/27) Today's temps were steady at -0.536 after a recent high of +0.100 on 2/1. Temps previously were -0.604 on 1/24. A previous peak of -0.595 occurred on 12/11. This area has been on a seesaw rising trend since early October. Temps were previously down to -2.138 on 8/13. The longterm trend has been on a slow but steady increase.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps:
(2/27) Temps were falling some at -0.786 after peaking at -0.611 on 2/20. Temps bottomed out at -1.654 on 11/3, rising to to -0.982 on 1/21. The previous low before that was -0.733 on 9/10. Temps were on a steady decline since 7/25 then bottomed out in late October and have been on a slow increase since.

Click for Full Sized Image Click for Full Sized Image

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Uncorrected Data (2/27) Actuals per the model indicates temps bottomed out in early Nov at -1.25 degs then rose to -0.65 degs mid-Jan and then up to -0.45 degs in Feb. The forecast depicts temps holding at about -0.45 degs into late April then starting a steady decline falling to -1.00 degs in early Aug and holding there in Nov. This seems more possible than previous runs, suggests perhaps another year of La Nina.
IRI Consensus Plume: The Feb 20, 2021 Plume depicts temps are at -0.64 degs today, and are to rise to -0.37 in April and stabilizing in May at -0.26 maybe easing up to -0.24 degs in Oct. Most models are suggesting a moderate La Nina returning to Neutral in the late Spring of 2021.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - this is a lagging indicator) (2/27): The daily index was rising to +1.44. The 30 day average was falling at +11.47 after peaking at +19.51 on 1/14. The 90 day average was falling some at +15.13 after peaking at +15.75 on 2/23 and clearly indicative of La Nina. This index is a lagging indicator.
ESPI Index (like SOI but based on satellite confirmed precipitation. Positive and/or rising is good, negative and/or falling is bad): June -0.67, May -0.46, April 2020 -0.69, March -0.09, Feb +0.65, Jan +0.42, This index was steady positive Aug 2018 through Feb 2020, and now is steady negative, but only weakly so.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Per NOAAs index recent values: Jan 2018 +0.29, Feb -0.19, Mar -0.61, April -0.89, May -0.69, June -0.85, July -0.09, Aug -0.43, Sept -0.46, Oct -0.75, Nov -0.78, Dec -0.12, Jan 2019 -0.18, Feb -0.50 Mar -0.23, April +0.10, May +0.14, June -0.11, July +0.44, Aug -0.14, Sept +0.05, Oct -0.96, Nov -0.28, Dec +0.01, Jan 2020 -1.17, This continues to look like the warm phase of the PDO. No consistently solid negative readings have occurred since Feb 2014
The Washington/JISAO index (Jan-Dec): Jan 2018 +0.70. Feb +0.37, Mar -0.05, April +0.11, May +0.11, June -0.04, July +0.11, Aug +0.18, Sept +0.09. No real negative readings have occurred since Dec 2013
The PDO turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan 98-Feb 2014) in early 2014 and has been positive ever since (other than a few months of negative readings in Fall 2016, the result of a turn towards La Nina). Looking at the long term record, it is premature to conclude that we have in-fact turned from the negative phase (La Nina 'like') to the positive phase (El Nino 'like'), but the data strongly suggests that could be a possibility. By the time it is confirmed (4-5 years out), we will be well into it.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

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External Reference Material: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Kelvin Wave


Powerlinessurf Jeff Clark Inside Mavericks

Local Interest

Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for the week starting Sunday (2/21):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?hd=1&v=cXO0lL9ZvL4&feature=youtu.be
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Stormsurf and Mavericks on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Mavericks Invitational Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table

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