BUOY ROUNDUP
Saturday, March 15, 2025 :

Significant: Winter - Swell 8 ft @ 14 secs or greater (11+ ft faces) for 8+ hours (greater than double overhead).
Summer - Head high or better.
Advanced: Winter - Swell and period combination capable of generating faces 1.5 times overhead to double overhead (7-10 ft)
Summer - Chest to head high.
Intermediate/Utility Class: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces at head high to 1.5 times overhead (4-7 ft).
Summer - Waist to chest high.
Impulse/Windswell: Winter - Swell and period combination generating faces up to head high (1-4 ft) or anything with a period less than 11 secs.
Summer - up to waist high swell. Also called 'Background' swell.

Surf Heights for Hawaii should be consider 'Hawaiian Scale' if period exceeds 14 secs.

PACIFIC OVERVIEW
Current Conditions
On Saturday (3/15) in North and Central CA waves were 12 ft and poorly lined up and junky and warbled and mushed but with light winds and not very rideable. Protected breaks were 3 ft overhead and lined up of not closed out and clean. At Santa Cruz surf was 3 ft overhead on the sets and lined up and clean but still pretty warbled and mushed but with decent form. In Ventura County waves were knee to thigh high and not lined up and weak and mushed with poor form though fairly clean. Central Orange County had sets at chest high and somewhat lined with decent form and clean but mushed with some warble running through it. South Orange County's best summertime breaks were thigh high and mushed and soft and warbled and not really rideable. North San Diego had sets at up to head high and lined up with decent form but pretty soft and with intermixed warble. Oahu's North Shore had sets at chest to maybe head t high on the sets and lined up with decent form and clean with no real wind early. The South Shore had sets at knee to thigh high and weakly lined up and soft but clean. The East Shore was getting minimal background east windswell at thigh to maybe waist high and somewhat warble and texture from light east trades.

See QuikCASTs for the 5 day surf overview or read below for the detailed view.

Meteorological Overview
On Saturday (3/15) California was getting swell from a gale developed half way to the dateline Mon-Tues (3/11) producing up to 34 ft seas aimed southeast then dissipated Wed (3/12) on the dateline with seas fading from 26 ft aimed east with it's remnants redeveloping in the Northwestern Gulf Thurs-Fri (3/14) with 29-30 ft seas aimed east. Hawaii is getting minimal sideband swell from that system as well. A gale is forecast developing in the Central Gulf Sat-Sun (3/16) tracking towards California with 22-24 ft seas then dissipating off the coast on Mon (3/17). Another weak gale developed off Japan on Fri-Sat (3/15) with 24 ft seas aimed east then is to dissipate on the North Dateline on Sun (3/16). No real swell to result. Another to develop off North Japan Mon-Tues (3/18) tracking to the North Dateline region with up to 36-37 ft seas aimed east and remnants tracking over the Northwestern Gulf Wed-Thurs (3/20) with 26-27 ft seas aimed east. And another is to set up half way from Japan to the dateline Thurs-Fri (3/21) with up to 39 ft seas initially then fading in the Northwestern Gulf Sat (3/22) with seas fading from 27 ft aimed east. A Springtime pattern is taking shape.

See all the details below...

SHORT- TERM FORECAST
Current marine weather and wave analysis plus forecast conditions for the next 72 hours

North Pacific

Overview
Jetstream
On Saturday (3/15) the jetstream was split just off the coast of Japan with most energy in the northern branch running east on generally the 40N latitude line all the way across the North Pacific before pushing inland over Oregon with winds 130-140 kts with a trough off the North Kuril Islands and another in the Central Gulf with both supportive of some degree of gale formation. Over the next 72 hours the Gulf trough is to push east moving onshore over North CA late on Mon (3/17) supporting weak gale formation and producing weather as it moves onshore. The Kuril trough is to also push east over the dateline while building some being fed by 150 kts winds supporting gale formation. It is to reach the Northwestern Gulf later on Mon (3/17) reorganizing on Tues (3/18) being fed by 140 kts winds supporting gale formation again before weakening and moving onshore over the OR-CA border on Wed (3/19). Beyond 72 hours wind energy is to build in the jet on Wed (3/19) off Japan with winds there to 180 kts and the split point now moving east to the dateline with most energy in the northern branch of the jet extending east into the Northern Gulf with winds there generally at 130-140 kts. By later Fri (3/21) then jet is to become mostly consolidated running east from 30N over japan to 45N in the Gulf and winds 140-150 kts over it's width poised to push onshore over OT-CA border on Sat (3/22). No troughs are forecast but weather sure seems likely for the US West Coast north of San Francisco.

Surface Analysis
On Saturday (3/15) swell was hitting California originating from a gale that developed off Kamchatka tracking east Sat-Tues (3/11) (see Another Kamchatka Gale below). Another swell was fading in Hawaii from a gale previously off Japan (see Japan Gale below).

A small gale developed off Japan Sat AM (3/15) with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 24 ft at 42N 158.5E aimed east. The gale to track east in the afternoon with west winds 30 kts and seas 23 ft at 41N 166E aimed east. Fetch fading from 30 kts Sun AM (3/16) approaching the dateline with seas 21 ft at 43N 173E aimed east. Fetch sweeping fast east in the evening at 25-30 kts with seas 19 ft at 44N 180W over the dateline. The gale to fade from there. Maybe some sideband swell to Hawaii at best.

A stronger gale is forecast building just off the Southern Kuril Islands Mon PM (3/18) with 45 kt west winds and seas 37 ft over a smallish area at 43.25N 158.5E aimed east. On Tues AM (3/19) 40 kt west winds to be lifting northeast half way to the north Dateline region with seas 36 ft at 45.75N 166E aimed east. in the evening northwest winds to be 40 kts over the North Dateline region with seas 34 ft at 48N 173.25E aimed east. On Wed AM (3/19) west winds to be 35-40 kts over a decent sized area over the North Dateline with seas 31 ft at 49.25N 180W aimed east. .In the evening west winds to be fading from 30-35 kts but over a large area over the Northwestern Gulf with seas 29 ft at 49N 172.5W aimed east. Fetch fading Thurs AM (3/20) from 30+ kts in the Northwestern Gulf with seas 25 ft at 47.5N 165W aimed east. in the evening fetch to be dissipating from barely 30 kts with seas fading from 21-22 ft at 46N 156W aimed east. Something to monitor.

Central Gulf Gale
Another local gale to form in the Central Gulf on Sat PM (3/15) with 35 kts northwest winds and seas building to 24 ft at 39N 149.75W aimed southeast. On Sun AM (3/16) the gale is to be approaching San Francisco with northwest winds 30-35 kts and seas 21 ft at 37.5N 142W aimed southeast. Fetch dissipates in the evening with seas 18 ft at 36N 136W aimed east. Swell is to intermix with swell from the Northwestern Gulf Gale (see below) relative to California.

Another Kamchatka Gale
A small but more robust gale started developing off Kamchatka on Sat AM (3/8) producing west winds at 35-40 kts and seas 28 ft at 48N 177.5W aimed northeast. In the evening west winds built in coverage off Kamchatka at 35-40 kts with seas 26 ft at 49N 172E aimed east over a broad area. On Sun AM (3/9) 35-40 kt west winds were starting to migrate east and approaching the dateline with seas 27-28 ft at 50N 177E aimed east. In the evening west winds were fading from 35 kts over the dateline with seas 29-30 ft at 51N 178.25W aimed east. Mon AM (3/10) west winds were fading from 30-35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 25-26 ft at 50N 172W aimed east. In the evening fetch was fading from 30+ kts from the west with seas 24 ft at 50N 165W aimed east. On Tues AM (3/11) fetch was fading from 30 kts while falling southeast with seas fading from 21 ft at 47N 156W aimed east. Something to monitor.

North CA: Swell/windswell combo fades on Sat (3/15) from 8.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (11.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/16) fading from 5.3 ft @ 11-12 secs early (6.0 ft). Swell Direction: 285-305 degrees

Southern CA: Swell to mainly be from residual energy circulating off the California coast. Swell/windswell combo fades on Sat (3/15) from 3.2 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5-4.0 ft). Residuals on Sun (3/16) fading from 2.4 ft @ 12 secs early (2.5-3.0 ft). Swell Direction: 290-305 degrees

Northwest Gulf Gale
On Wed PM (3/12) remnants of the Japan Gale (see details below) tracked northeast and redeveloped in the far Northwestern Gulf of Alaska with west winds 35-40 kts and seas 23 ft at 45N 176W aimed east. On Thurs AM (3/13) west winds were 40 kts and seas 24 ft at 47N 172.75W aimed east. In the evening west winds were 35 kts with seas 29 ft at 46.75N 161W aimed east. On Fri AM (3/14) the gale was fading well off British Columbia in the Northern Gulf with west winds 30-35 kts over a broad area and seas 24 ft at 47.75N 154.5W aimed east. Fetch dissipated in the evening with seas fading from 20-22 ft at 47N 152W aimed east.

North CA: Expect swell arrival on Sun (3/16) building to 3.1 ft @ 16 secs late (4.5 ft). Swell builds on Mon (3/17) to 8.1 ft @ 13-14 secs (10 ft) but mixed with local windswell and swell from a gale previously in the Central Gulf (see Central Gulf Gale above). Swell fades Tues (3/18) from 7.7 ft @ 12-13 secs early (9.5 ft). Dribbles on Wed (3/19) fading from 4.5 ft @ 11-12 secs early (5.0 ft). Swell Direction: 282-301 degrees

Southern CA: Swell arrives on Mon (3/17) building to 2.9 ft @ 14-15 secs later (4.0 ft). Swell peaks early Tues (3/18) at 3.8 ft @ 13 secs early (4.5 ft). Swell fading Wed (3/19) from 2.3 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.0 ft). Dribbles on Thurs (3/20) fading from 2.2 ft @ 11 secs (2.5 ft). Swell Direction: 289-305 degrees

Japan Gale
Another gale developed just off Japan Mon AM (3/10) with 45 kt north winds and seas 23 ft at 38N 157E aimed south. In the evening northwest winds built to 50-55 kts with seas 34 ft at 39.5N 159.25E aimed southeast. On Tues AM (3/11) west and northwest winds were 40-45 kts with seas 34 ft at 36.75N 162.5E aimed southeast. Fetch is to be fading in the evening from 35-40 kts while the gale lifts northeast approaching the dateline with seas 28-30 ft at 36.75N 170E aimed east. Fetch fading Wed AM (3/12) from the northwest at 35 kts as the gale lifts northeast with seas 25 ft at 37N 177.5E aimed east and southeast at Hawaii. The gael to redevelop in the Northwestern Gulf beyond. Something to monitor.

Oahu: Swell continues Sat (3/15) at 3.5 ft @ 14-15 (5.0 ft) Swell fading Sun (3/16) from 2.9 ft @ 12-13 secs early (3.5 ft). Dribbles fading on Mon (3/17) from 3.3 ft @ 11-12 secs (3.5 ft). Swell Direction: 310 moving to 320 degrees

North Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

Tropical Update
No tropical weather systems of interest are being tracked.

California Nearshore Forecast
(North CA is defined as the area north of the Golden Gate - Central CA from Pt Conception to the Golden Gate, and Southern CA everywhere south of Pt Conception).

Snow Levels for Tahoe (focused on Palisades Tahoe): Freeze level 5,000 ft rising to 6,500 ft Sun (3/15) dropping from 5,500 ft to 4,000 ft Mon-Tues (3/17). Freeze level rising to 8,200 ft late on Tues (3/18) dropping to 4,000-5,000 ft Wed (3/19). Freeze level rising to 7,000 ft Thurs-Fri (3/21) then holding at 5,000 ft beyond.

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Tioga Pass/Pacific Crest Trail intersection forecast: Temps - Freeze Level
More locations here (scroll down to 'Resort Snow Forecasts>Central CA or North CA Caltrans & Backcountry')

Snow Models: http://www.stormsurf.com/mdls/menu_snow.html (Scroll down for Resort specific forecasts).

South Pacific

Overview
Surface Analysis
No swell of interest is hitting or forecast.

Over the next 72 hours no swell producing weather systems of interest are forecast.

South Pacific Animations: Jetstream - Surface Pressure/Wind - Sea Height - Surf Height

LONG-TERM FORECAST
Marine weather and forecast conditions 3-10 days into the future

North Pacific

Beyond 72 hours starting Thurs AM (3/20) a gale is forecast building east of North Japan with 50 kts west winds and seas 34 ft at 40.75N 162.25E aimed east. In the evening fetch is to track east at 45 kts with seas 38 ft at 43N 169E aimed east. On Fri AM (3/21) west winds to be 40-45 kts over a solid area just west of the dateline with seas 37 ft at 44.25N 175.75E aimed east. Fetch fading in the evening from 40 kts on the dateline with seas 34 ft at 44.75N 177.25E aimed east. Fetch fading Sat AM (3/22) from 35 kts over the dateline with seas fading from 29 ft at 44.75N 176.25W aimed east. Something to monitor.

South Pacific

Beyond 72 hours a small gale is forecast developing southeast of New Zealand Wed PM (3/19) with 45 kts southwest winds and seas 29 ft at 58S 168W aimed northeast. On Thurs AM (3/20) southwest winds to be 40 kts with seas 32 ft at 57S 161.25W aimed northeast. In the evening fetch is to lift northeast at 35 kts with seas 31 ft at 54S 151.25W aimed northeast. On Fri AM (3/21) fetch is to be fading from 35 kts with seas fading from 27 ft at 54S 142.5W aimed northeast. Something to monitor.

Another gale is forecast developing Fri AM (3/21) south of New Zealand with 40-45 kt west-northwest winds and seas 33 ft at 61.5S 166.5E aimed mostly southeast. The gale is to track east but all fetch and seas aimed to still be aimed southeast only at Antarctica. No support for swell production expected.

MJO/ENSO Forecast

Modoki La Nina Fading Out
MJO Pattern Weak
9 downwelling warm water Kelvin Waves traversed the Pacific from Dec '22 through Dec 2023 erupting off Ecuador setting up El Nino for the Winter of 23-24. But that is over and 6 upwelling Kelvin Waves have traversed the subsurface equatorial Pacific starting Feb 2024 and continue erupting over the East Equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere is in a weak Modoki La Nina mode focused on the dateline, and expected to start fading beyond.

MJO/ENSO Discussion
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a periodic weather cycle that tracks east along the equator circumnavigating the globe. It is characterized in it's Inactive Phase by enhanced trade winds and dry weather over the part of the equator it is in control of, and in it's Active Phase by slackening if not an outright reversing trade winds while enhancing precipitation. The oscillation occurs in roughly 20-30 day cycles (Inactive for 20-30 days, then Active for 20-30 days) over any single location on the planet, though most noticeable in the Pacific. During the Active Phase in the Pacific the MJO tends to support the formation of stronger and longer lasting gales resulting in enhanced potential for the formation of swell producing storms. Prolonged and consecutive Active MJO Phases in the Pacific help support the formation of El Nino. During the Inactive Phase the jet stream tends to split resulting in high pressure and less potential for swell producing storm development. Wind anomalies in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area (KWGA) are key for understanding what Phase the MJO is in over the Pacific. The KWGA is located on the equator from 135E-170W and 5 degs north and south (or on the equator from New Guinea east to the dateline). West wind anomalies in the KWGA suggest the Active Phase of the MJO in the Pacific, and east anomalies suggests the Inactive Phase. In turn the Active Phase strengthens and the Inactive Phase weakens the jetstream, which in turn enhances or dampens storm production respectively in the Pacific.And the El Nino/La Nino cycle (collectively know as ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation) is a less frequent (about once every 7 years) but more impactful cycle that affects world wide weather. Specifically, strong El Nino events promote storm production in the Pacific while La Nina events suppress storm production. These therefore have a significant impact on the production of swell and surf. The paragraphs below analyze the state of the MJO and ENSO in the Pacific and provide forecasts for upcoming activity (or inactivity depending on the state and interaction of these two oscillations).

Overview: In 2019 warm equatorial waters were fading, and by August a tongue of cool water was tracking west on the equator from Ecuador over the Galapagos reaching to a point nearly south of Hawaii. A bit of a recovery tried to occur during Fall of 2019, with weak warm water building in the Nino 1.2 region, but cool water held in a pool off Peru. By April 2020 a cool pool was starting to build, forming a well defined cool tongue that evolved into La Nina, with it fully developing through July 2020. That pattern continued until late Fall 2022 when trades started fading and by early 2023 multiple Kelvin Waves were in flight with significant warming developing over the East Equatorial Pacific. La Nina was dead on 3/18/2023 with El Nino apparently developing. But it was not coupled with the atmosphere as of 7/20/2023 and never really did get well coupled. There is growing suspicion the Hunga Tonga volcano eruption muted El Ninos impact. Regardless, starting in Jan 2024 the first signs of La Nina emerged as would be expected and continue building today.

Rationale: A underperforming El Nino faded in Feb 2024. The models projected development of a moderate La Nina by Summer 2024, but as of late Sept (2024) there was still no sign of it in the SOI though water temps in Nino3.4 were clearly moving in a La Nina direction. Considering it take 3+ months for La Nina symptoms to appear in the atmosphere after the ocean (Nino 3.4) turns solidly to a La Nina configuration, and the ocean is just now starting to make clear moves towards becoming solidly into a La Nina pattern, it seems La Nina will not fully build into the jetstream/atmosphere until Jan 2025. And 2 months later Winter will be fading and any support for La Nina to build will be fading with it. Therefore, we can assume we are at best going to be in weak La Nina conditions as we get deep into the Winter of '24/'25. Conversely El Nino 23/24 faltered because of a persistent high pressure background state (in the Pacific) attributable to the PDO being in a long running cold state (which in turn mimics a modest La Nina background state). And there is no signs of that changing. The net result is that the atmosphere is stuck in a long running weak La Nina background state which in turn suppresses storm and swell development effectively setting up an atmosphere with no momentum towards either strong La Nina or strong El Nino. As a result the forecast for the coming winter season will reflect the atmospheres tendency to not actively support storm formation though not actively completely hindering it either.

KWGA/Equatorial Surface Wind Analysis (KWGA - Kelvin Wave Generation Area - The area 5 degrees north and south of the equator from 170W to 135E)
Analysis (TAO Buoys): As of (3/14) 5 day average winds were weak east over the East equatorial Pacific and moderate east over the Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. Anomalies were weak west over the East and Central Pacific and strong east over the KWGA. (Note: These are 5 day average winds, versus realtime, so they lag what is happening today (by about 2.5 days).
2 Week Forecast (GFS Model): (3/15) Today strong east anomalies were filling the KWGA (West Pacific). The forecast indicates east anomalies holding at strong status filling the KWGA through nearly the end of the model run on 3/31 and very strong 3/22-3/26. West anomalies are forecast building over the Maritime Continent at moderate to strong strength starting 3/20 and building in coverage through the end of the model run.

Kelvin Wave Generation Area wind monitoring model: West and East

CFSv2 3 month forecast for 850 mb winds, MJO, Rossby etc - Alternate link

Subsurface Waters Temps
TAO Array: (3/15) Today in the far West Pacific the 29 degree isotherm was gone. The 28 deg isotherm line was easing east from 173E to 175E to now 177E. The 24 degree isotherm was reaching east to Ecuador and reasonably solid in depth over all the width of the equatorial Pacific if not building in the east. Anomaly wise, warm anomalies were +2 degs in the far West Pacific and the far East Pacific. A pocket of cooler anomalies at -2 degs were present down 110 meters at 150W with -1 degs anomalies reaching east to 110W and markedly less concentrated than days past. The hi-res GODAS animation posted 3/9 indicates cold anomalies were filling the the thermocline from 160E east to 80W at mostly -0.5 to -1.0 degs but with warm anomalies now present 110W reaching to the surface. The density and volume of cold water at depth was declining fast. Warm anomalies were filling the area west of the dateline and building pushing east to 160W (from 165W). The GODAS animation is 1 week behind the TAO data but also is more detailed and accurately depicted since its satellite based.
Sea Level Anomalies: (3/9) Sea heights over the equatorial Pacific were neutral from Ecuador to 130W and positive in a small pocket at 110W then negative at -5 to -10 cms from 130W west to 178W with 2 pockets straddling the equator at 155W. -10 cms anomalies were from 145W to 160W. It appears the cool pool is fading and moving west. Per the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Histogram (3/9) the cool pool was collapsing fast with it's remnants lingering only between 140W to 160W at.-0.5 to -1.0 degs below normal. A La Nina pattern is all but gone. Warmer waters were building in the west in coverage reaching east to 168W.

Surface Water Temps
The more warm water in the equatorial East Pacific means more storm production in the North Pacific during winter months (roughly speaking). Cold water in that area has a dampening effect. Regardless of what the atmospheric models and surface winds suggest, actual water temperatures are a ground-truth indicator of what is occurring in the ocean. All data is from blended infrared and microwave sensors.
Satellite Imagery
Hi-res Nino1.2 & 3.4 Qualitative Analysis: (3/14) The latest images depict a La Nina cool pool was filling the Central equatorial Pacific between 140W to 160E and less concentrated between those points than days past. Warm anomalies were over the East Pacific from Ecuador to 140W and building in density and also filling the West Pacific. This looks like a Modoki La Nina (westward displaced) and fading at that.
Hi-res 7 day Trend (3/14): Temps were warming slightly over the entire Equatorial Pacific most concentrated from 130W to 170W (over the center of the Modoki cool pool). The trend was building warmer.
Nino1.2 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/15) (The official OISST temps are 'corrected' to the most recent 30 year base period where this data is less aggressively corrected). Today's temps were fading some at +1.121 after peaking at +1.5 on 3/4. Temps started warming steadily from -0.962 on 1/28. Previously temps held near -0.5 degs starting 11/30. They peaked at +0.265 (11/22), starting the upward rise on 11/4-5 when anomalies were as low as any previous reading (near -1.4 degs), and hovered between -1.5 to -1.0 starting 9/22.
Nino 3.4 Daily CDAS Index Temps: (3/15) Today's temps were steady at +0.257 (slightly warm) and started rising on 1/25 from -1.5 degs after peaking at -1.106 (1/18) and had been generally slowly rising after dropping to -1.429 (12/27). Previously anomalies were on a steady decline from -0.475 (11/22) and generally steady since 11/4, lower near -1.0 degs 9/21-10/28, and had been falling steadily in pulses since 6/30. Temps fell below the zero mark on 5/20 and but then rebuilt hovering near neutral 6/2 through 6/30.
Weekly OISST Anomalies were neutral at 0.0 the week of 3/5 and rising. Previously temps were -0.2 (2/26), -0.3 (2/12 & 2/19), -0.6 (2/5), -0.8 (1/29), -0.9 (1/22), -0.6 (1/15), -0.7 (1/1 and 1/8), -1.1 (1/25) coldest so far, -0.8 (12/18),-0.6 (12/11), -0.3 (12/4 and 11/27), -0.1 (11/20), 0.0 (11/13), -0.3 (11/6), -0.2 (10/30), -0.5 (10/23), -0.3 (10/16), -0.5 degs (10/9), -0.3 (10/2), -0.2 degs (10/25), -0.5 degs (9/18 the first time solidly negative), -0.2 (9/11), -0.1 (9.4), -0.2 (8/28), 0.0 (8/21), -0.1 degrees (8/14) +0.0 (8/7) -0.2 degrees (7/31) and the first week negative in a year, +0.1 (week of 7/24), +0.2 (7/17), +0.3 (7/10 and 7/3), +0.4 ( 6/26) +0.3 (6/19) +0.0 (week of 6/12) +0.1 (6/5 & 5/29) +0.2 degs (5/15 and 5/22), +0.3 (5/8), +0.5 (5/1), +0.8 (4/24), +0.7 (week of 4/17), +0.9 (4/10), +1.2 (week of 4/3), +1.0 (3/27), +1.3 (3/20), +1.1 degs (3/13), +1.4 (3/6), +1.3 (2/28), +1.5 (2/14 & 2/21) +1.7 (2/7), +1.8 (1/31). +1.7 (1/24 & 1/17) up at +1.9 (1/10 & 1/3), +2.0 (12/27, 12/20 and 12/13) after being at +1.9 (12/6), +2.0 (11/29) and +2.1 (11/22 - the highest), then +1.9 (11/15) and +1.8 degs (11/8 & 11/1).
Monthly Data is -0.29 Feb, -0.74 Jan, -0.60 Dec, -0.25 Nov, -0.27 Oct., -0.26 Sept, -0.12 August, +0.05 July, +0.17 June, +0.23 May, +1.12 March, +0.78 April, +1.52 Feb, +1.82 Jan 2024, +2.02 Dec (2023), +2.02 Nov, and +1.72 Oct (2023).
3 Month ONI (relative centered) 3 month period is -1.18 (DJF), -1.07 (NDJ), -0.92 (OND), -0.81 (SON), -0.75 (ASO), -0.63 (JAS), -0.50 (JJA), -0.45 (MJJ), -0.25 (AMJ), +0.07 MAM, +0.50 FMA, +0.87 JFM, 1.21 for DJF and +1.46 ft for NDJ 2023 (just short of minimal Super El Nino status) and +1.50 OND . All others were less than that.

CFSV2 Forecast for Nino3.4 Sea Surface Temp (SST) Anomalies & Current SST Anomalies

SST Anomaly Projections
CFSv2 Data (Nino3.4 Region)
Previous - Temps rose to +0.50 degs mid-May 2023, +0.9 degs in mid-June, and +1.05 mid July reaching up to +1.30 degs early Aug, +1.6 degs in Sept holding in Oct and , +1.95 in Nov, +2.0 in Dec and +1.85 in Jan 2024 and +1.65 in Feb then down to +0.75 degs mid-April, +0.25 mid May and then +0.25 mid June falling to -0.15 degs in mid-Aug, -0.3 mid Sept and -0.35 mid-Oct and up to -0.2 in Nov then down to -0.7 in Dec, -0.75 in Jan and -0.6 in Feb. Temps continue to not fall anywhere near as fast or hard as this model forecasted, including Feb 2025.
Forecast (3/15) - Temps rose unexpectedly to +0.15 in March but are to fade in April to -0.40, rising to -0.20 in July and holding there in Oct-Nov. The PDF Corrected forecast effectively suggests the same. In all it looks like we're moving out of a weak La Nina to a neutral pattern.
IRI Consensus Plume: The February 20, 2024 Plume (all models) depicts temps are -0.501 (down from -0.435 degs last month) and is the 9th month below neutral since El Nino developed. Temps to rise slightly from here to -0.387 degs in March (MAM). The Dynamic model suggest temps rising from here forward and near 0.0 on JJA and the Statistic rising to -0.581 at the same time. In other words, we are past the peak of La Nina now. The Dynamic model has temps falling to -0.352 OND while the statistic model down to -0.626. The models are split but generally suggests a return to near neutral next Fall.
See chart here - link.

Atmospheric Coupling (Indicating the presence of El Nino in the atmosphere driven by the ocean):
Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) (negative is good, positive bad - all but the Daily Index was a lagging indicator):
Today (3/15/25) the Daily Index was positive at +9.52 and weakly positive the last 22 days, negative the previous 9 days, positive the previous 28 days, negative the previous 18 days, but otherwise mostly positive before that.
The 30 day average was rising some at +1.79 and has been generally falling the last month, through still weakly in La Nina territory.
The 90 day average was steady at +5.30 and weakly in La Nina territory. .

Pacific Decadal Oscillation
(Negative is bad, Positive is good) The PDO theoretically turned from a 16 year negative run (Jan '98-Feb 2014) turning weakly positive March 2014 holding into June 2017 (up to +1.86 driven by the 2015-16 El Nino) then turned neutral. It went negative again 10/2019 and hard negative in 10/2021-10/2023 driven by a 3 year La Nina conditions (down to -3.13). It started rising (but still negative) 11/2023-2/2024 driven by a strong El Nino, but not enough to even get it to break positive ground (best reading at -1.33 on 2/24). It then started falling in March 2024 down to -3.54 Sept (the lowest since April 1859) and -3.81 (Oct) the lowest ever reported. But in Nov the index final rose some to -3.24 and -2.08 in Dec and now -1.32 in Jan and -1.45 in Feb. Looking at the long term record, it seems likely we are stable and still in the Cool Phase of the PDO (La Nina 'like') since 5/1998 with no sign of moving to the positive/warm phase (El Nino 'like') of any duration yet. We need at least 3 months of -1.2 or higher values before one could guess that maybe the cool phase is weakening.

See imagery in the ENSO Powertool 

Local Interest
Stormsurf Video Surf Forecast for this week. See it Here
For automatic notification of forecast updates, subscribe to the Stormsurf001 YouTube channel - just click the 'Subscribe' button below the video.

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NBC News - Climate Change and Surfing: https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/climate-change-good-surfing-other-sports-not-so-much-ncna1017131

Mavericks & Stormsurf on HBO Sports with Bryant Gumbel https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=luQSYf5sKjQ

Pieces Featuring Stormsurf:
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/how-to-predict-the-best-surfing-waves-EsNiR~0xR5yXGOlOq2MqfA.html
http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/surfs-up-for-mavericks-invitational-in-calif/

Time Zone Converter By popular demand we've built and easy to use time convert that transposes GMT time to whatever time zone you are located. It's ion left hand column on every page on the site near the link to the swell calculator.

Surf Height-Swell Height Correlation Table